• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability estimation

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Applicability of QSAR Models for Acute Aquatic Toxicity under the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals in the Republic of Korea (화평법에 따른 급성 수생독성 예측을 위한 QSAR 모델의 활용 가능성 연구)

  • Kang, Dongjin;Jang, Seok-Won;Lee, Si-Won;Lee, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Sang Hee;Kim, Pilje;Chung, Hyen-Mi;Seong, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2022
  • Background: A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was adopted in the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH, EU) regulations as well as the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals (AREC, Republic of Korea). It has been previously used in the registration of chemicals. Objectives: In this study, we investigated the correlation between the predicted data provided by three prediction programs using a QSAR model and actual experimental results (acute fish, daphnia magna toxicity). Through this approach, we aimed to effectively conjecture on the performance and determine the most applicable programs when designating toxic substances through the AREC. Methods: Chemicals that had been registered and evaluated in the Toxic Chemicals Control Act (TCCA, Republic of Korea) were selected for this study. Two prediction programs developed and operated by the U.S. EPA - the Ecological Structure-Activity Relationship (ECOSAR) and Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (T.E.S.T.) models - were utilized along with the TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology) commercial program. The applicability of these three programs was evaluated according to three parameters: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The prediction analysis on fish and daphnia magna in the three programs showed that the TOPKAT program had better sensitivity than the others. Conclusions: Although the predictive performance of the TOPKAT program when using a single predictive program was found to perform well in toxic substance designation, using a single program involves many restrictions. It is necessary to validate the reliability of predictions by utilizing multiple methods when applying the prediction program to the regulation of chemicals.

The Factor Analysis for Acceptance on Hydrogen Refueling Station Using Structure Equation Model (구조방정식 모델을 이용한 수소충전소 수용에 미치는 요인분석)

  • Lee, Mi Jeong;Baek, Jong-Bae
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.356-362
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    • 2022
  • Research related to hydrogen technology is being actively conducted around the world. Korea is also making great efforts to develop technology to leap forward as a hydrogen economy powerhouse. In particular, the world's No. 1 hydrogen vehicle penetration rate is proof of this. However, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is being delayed. The biggest delay factor is the public opposition. As such, policies without public support cannot be successfully implemented and are not sustainable. Therefore, this study intends to analyze the factors affecting the acceptability of hydrogen refueling stations in favor of and against them. As a research method, the basic factors affecting acceptability were identified by reviewing previous studies, and a questionnaire was designed and investigated based on the established factors. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were verified, and the hypothesis was verified through correlation analysis. And, using structural equation modeling, a factor model was developed on the acceptability of hydrogen refueling stations. As a result of the study, acceptability defined private acceptability and public acceptability. In the case of private acceptability, it was confirmed that the higher the attitude toward the environment, the higher the level of knowledge about the hydrogen charging station, and the lower the degree of feeling the risk of the hydrogen charging station, the higher the acceptability. In the case of public acceptability, it was confirmed that the higher the benefit, the better the attitude toward the environment, and the lower the risk-taking characteristics of the individual, the higher the acceptability. Therefore, in this study, based on the potential factors verified in previous studies, the main factors affecting the acceptance on hydrogen refueling stations were identified. And the acceptance model was developed using structural equation modeling. This study is expected to provide basic data to seek ways to improve the acceptance of public when implementing national policies such as hydrogen refueling stations, and to be used analysis data for scientific communication.

The Measurement of Social Carrying Capacity on the Total Amount of Vehicles for Estimation of the Appropriate Number of Vehicles in U-do Island (적정입도차량대수 산정을 위한 자동차 총량제에 대한 사회적 수용력 측정)

  • Hwang, Kyung Soo;Ko, Tae Ho;Lim, Jung Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5D
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    • pp.605-610
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    • 2009
  • The either satisfaction levels or limits of tolerance levels felt by the users in the certain space/region should be examined for measuring social capacity on the total amount of vehicles. The reliability of measuring social carrying capacity depends primarily on decreasing the strategic responding biases. To induce the honest responses to preferences, Dichotomous Choice which is specifically known as the Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice was adopted in this research to suggest the measurement methodology of social carrying capacity on the total amount of vehicles in U-do island. The empirical test was carried out the U-do island, an administrative district of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. The number of vehicles satisfied by the 10% of residents was 390 and the satisfactory vehicle number was decreased to 132 extended to 90% of residents. This research, based on the political decision making criteria, set up the social carrying capacity in U-do island. The vehicle number satisfied by 50% of residents was 227, which meant the same number of residents turn to be supporter in case of political actions.

A Study on the Indirect Benefits of Undergrounding Overhead Power Line Projects in an Urban Area Using Contingent Valuation Method (조건부가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 도심지 송전선로 지중화사업의 간접편익 추정)

  • Park, Chan-Ho;Kim, Sung-Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.871-879
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    • 2008
  • Recently, as there are a rise in the standard of living and higher concerns of an electromagnetic wave and environment, undergrounding the aerial cables which are supported by large pylons and generally considered as the least attractive feature of an urban area is on an increasing trend to improve aesthetic benefits and electric reliability. This study applied Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) which is expected to become an effective tool to measure indirect benefit to estimate the substantial benefits of undergrounding overhead power line projects in an urban area. The tunneling construction project of the 345kV Shinsungnam electric power cable in Seongnam city was selected and a hypothetical scenario was given to respondents to determine their levels of Willingness to Pay (WTP) for undergrounding overhead power lines. The result from the estimation of the WTP of undergrounding overhead power lines in Seongnam city was calculated as approximately 17.1 billion won. Placing existing overhead lines underground is difficult to justify economically. Most undergrounding costs appear to be justified by aesthetic and public policy considerations. Therefore, considering the result of this study, undergrounding overhead power lines is of great benefit to public.

Predicting the splitting tensile strength of manufactured-sand concrete containing stone nano-powder through advanced machine learning techniques

  • Manish Kewalramani;Hanan Samadi;Adil Hussein Mohammed;Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Ibrahim Albaijan;Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim;Saleh Alsulamy
    • Advances in nano research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.375-394
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    • 2024
  • The extensive utilization of concrete has given rise to environmental concerns, specifically concerning the depletion of river sand. To address this issue, waste deposits can provide manufactured-sand (MS) as a substitute for river sand. The objective of this study is to explore the application of machine learning techniques to facilitate the production of manufactured-sand concrete (MSC) containing stone nano-powder through estimating the splitting tensile strength (STS) containing compressive strength of cement (CSC), tensile strength of cement (TSC), curing age (CA), maximum size of the crushed stone (Dmax), stone nano-powder content (SNC), fineness modulus of sand (FMS), water to cement ratio (W/C), sand ratio (SR), and slump (S). To achieve this goal, a total of 310 data points, encompassing nine influential factors affecting the mechanical properties of MSC, are collected through laboratory tests. Subsequently, the gathered dataset is divided into two subsets, one for training and the other for testing; comprising 90% (280 samples) and 10% (30 samples) of the total data, respectively. By employing the generated dataset, novel models were developed for evaluating the STS of MSC in relation to the nine input features. The analysis results revealed significant correlations between the CSC and the curing age CA with STS. Moreover, when delving into sensitivity analysis using an empirical model, it becomes apparent that parameters such as the FMS and the W/C exert minimal influence on the STS. We employed various loss functions to gauge the effectiveness and precision of our methodologies. Impressively, the outcomes of our devised models exhibited commendable accuracy and reliability, with all models displaying an R-squared value surpassing 0.75 and loss function values approaching insignificance. To further refine the estimation of STS for engineering endeavors, we also developed a user-friendly graphical interface for our machine learning models. These proposed models present a practical alternative to laborious, expensive, and complex laboratory techniques, thereby simplifying the production of mortar specimens.

Predictive analysis of minimum inflow using synthetic inflow in reservoir management: a case study of Seomjingang Dam (자료 발생 기법을 활용한 저수지 최소유입량 예측 기법 개발 : 섬진강댐을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Chulhee;Lee, Seonmi;Lee, Eunkyung;Ji, Jungwon;Yoon, Jeongin;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.311-320
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    • 2024
  • Climate change has been intensifying drought frequency and severity. Such prolonged droughts reduce reservoir levels, thereby exacerbating drought impacts. While previous studies have focused on optimizing reservoir operations using historical data to mitigate these impacts, their scope is limited to analyzing past events, highlighting the need for predictive methods for future droughts. This research introduces a novel approach for predicting minimum inflow at the Seomjingang dam which has experienced significant droughts. This study utilized the Stochastic Analysis Modeling and Simulation (SAMS) 2007 to generate inflow sequences for the same period of observed inflow. Then we simulate reservoir operations to assess firm yield and predict minimum inflow through synthetic inflow analysis. Minimum inflow is defined as the inflow where firm yield is less than 95% of the synthetic inflow in many sequences during periods matching observed inflow. The results for each case indicated the firm yield for the minimum inflow is on average 9.44 m3/s, approximately 1.07 m3/s lower than the observed inflow's firm yield of 10.51 m3/s. The minimum inflow estimation can inform reservoir operation standards, facilitate multi-reservoir system reviews, and assess supplementary capabilities. Estimating minimum inflow emerges as an effective strategy for enhancing water supply reliability and mitigating shortages.

Rifle performance improvement cost estimation through Relation between the accuracy and Engagement results Using the Engagement class simulation model (명중률과 교전결과의 상관관계분석을 통한 개인화기 성능개선비용 추정 : 교전급 분석모델을 중심으로)

  • TaeKyeom Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.289-295
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the correlation between the accracy of rifle and the result of engagement. And estimates the improvement cost of the rifle accordingly. For this experiment, an engagement class simulation model(AWAM: Army Weapon Effectiveness Analysis Model) was used. We also selected the rifle, which is a portable weapon for the experiment. Prior to this experiment, we conducted a reliability test(VV&A: Verification, Validation and Accreditation) on the model. The VV&A process is mainly done during the development of the DM&S model, which is also necessary for the operation of the M&S. We confirmed the need for VV&A during the experiment and obtained reliable experimental results using the corrected values. In the Accuracy Experiment we found that the 20% improvement is the most effective. And we were able to estimate the cost of acquiring a rifle with a 20% higher accuracy. The cost was estimated by simple regression analysis based on the price of the current rifle. Through this study, we could know the impact of the accuracy of rifle on the experimental results and estimate the cost of improved rifle.

Preoperative estimation of hemi-liver volume using standard liver volume and portal vein diameter ratio in living donor liver transplantation

  • Sung-Min Kim;Amro Hasan Ageel;Shin Hwang;Dong-Hwan Jung;Tae-Yong Ha;Gi-Won Song;Gil-Chun Park;Chul-Soo Ahn;Deok-Bog Moon
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.308-312
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    • 2022
  • Backgrounds/Aims: Although body surface area (BSA)-based standard liver volume (SLV) formulae have been used for living donor liver transplantation and hepatic resection, hemi-liver volume (HLV) is needed more frequently. HLV can be assessed using right or left portal vein diameter (RPVD or LPVD). The aim of this study was to validate the reliability of using portal vein diameter ratio (PVDR) for assessing HLV in living liver donors. Methods: This study included 92 living liver donors (59 males and 33 females) who underwent surgery between January 2020 and December 2020. Computed tomography (CT) images were used for measurements. Results: Mean age of donors was 35.5 ± 7.2 years. CT volumetry-measured total liver volume (TLV), right HLV, left HLV, and percentage of right HLV in TLV were 1,442.9 ± 314.2 mL, 931.5 ± 206.4 mL, 551.4 ± 126.5 mL, and 64.6% ± 3.6%, respectively. RPVD, LPVD, and main portal vein diameter were 12.2 ± 1.5 mm, 10.0 ± 1.3 mm, and 15.3 ± 1.7 mm, respectively (corresponding square values: 149.9 ± 36.9 mm2, 101.5 ± 25.2 mm2, and 237.2 ± 52.2 mm2, respectively). The sum of RPVD2 and LPVD2 was 251.1 ± 56.9 mm2. BSA-based SLV was 1,279.5 ± 188.7 mL (error rate: 9.1% ± 14.4%). SLV formula- and PVDR-based right HLV was 760.0 ± 130.7 mL (error rate: 16.2% ± 13.3%). Conclusions: Combining BSA-based SLV and PVDR appears to be a simple method to predict right or left HLV in living donors or split liver transplantation.

A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas (각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구)

  • Lee, Jean-Soo;Chang, Yong-Chai;Kim, Yong-Keol
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.106-111
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    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also, in most cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : As a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, t was showed that Terzaghi & Peck >Chin>Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable, time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering news, Modified Engineering News, Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program) analysis for relation, repectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)} / Q_{u(EOID)} = 0.98t_{0.1}$ , $0.98t_{0.1}$, $1.17t_{0.1}$, $0.88t_{0.1}$, $0.89t_{0.1}$, $0.97t_{0.1}$.

Estimation of resistance coefficient of PHC bored pile by Load Test II (재하시험에 의한 PHC 매입말뚝의 저항계수 산정 II)

  • Park, Jong-Bae;Park, Yong-Boo;Kwon, Young-Hwan
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2018
  • In Europe and the United States, the use of limit states design has almost been established for pile foundation design. According to the global trend, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs has established the basic design criteria of the bridge under the limit state design method. However, it is difficult to reflect on the design right now because of lack of research on resistance coefficient of the pile method and ground condition. In this study, to obtain the resistance coefficient of PHC bored pile which is widely used in Korea, the bearing capacity calculated by the LH design standard and the bridge design standard method, the static load test(21 times) and the dynamic load test(EOID 21 times, Restrike 21) The reliability analysis was performed on the results. The analysis of the resistance coefficient of PHC bored pile by loading test was analyzed by adding more than two times data. As a result, the resistance coefficient obtained from the static load test(ultimate bearing capacity) was 0.64 ~ 0.83 according to the design formula and the target reliability index, and the resistance coefficient obtained from the dynamic load test(ultimate bearing capacity) was 0.42~0.55. Respectively. The resistance coefficient obtained from the modified bearing capacity of dynamic load test(EOID's ultimate end bearing capacity + restrike's ultimate skin bearing capacity) was 0.55~0.71, which was reduced to about 14% when compared with the resistance coefficient obtained by the static load test(ultimate bearing capacity). As a result of the addition of the data, the resistivity coefficient was not changed significantly, even if the data were increased more than 2 times by the same value or 0.04 as the previous resistance coefficient. In conclusion, the overall resistance coefficient calculated by the static load test and dynamic load tests in this study is larger than the resistance coefficient of 0.3 suggested by the bridge design standard(2015).