• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability estimation

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Improving Usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's Digital Forecasts in Agriculture: Correction Method for Daytime Hourly Air Temperature over Complex Terrain (기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: 복잡지형의 낮 기온 상세화 기법)

  • Yun, Eun-jeong;Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 2019
  • The effects of wind speed on the temperature change during day time could be insignificant in a region with a complex terrain. The objective of this study was to derive empirical relationship between solar radiation and hourly temperature under a windy condition for the period from sunrise to sunset in order to improve hourly air temperature at a site-specific scale. The deviation of the temperature measurements was analyzed along with the changes of the hourly sunlight at weather observation sites located on the east and west slopes under given wind speed. An empirical model where wind speed use used as an independent variable was obtained to quantify the solar effects on the temperature change (MJ/㎡). This model was verified estimating the hourly temperature during the daytime (0600-1900 h) at 25 weather observation sites located in the study area that has complex topography for the period from January to December 2018. The mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE)of the estimated and measured values ranged from -0.98 to 0.67 ℃, and from 0.95 to 2.04 ℃, respectively. The daytime temperature at 1500 h were estimated using new and previous models. It was found that to the model proposed in the present study reduced the measurement errors of the hourly temperature in the afternoon in comparison with the previous model. For example, the ME and RMSE of the previous model were (ME -0.91 ℃ and 1.47 ℃, respectively. In contrast, the values of ME and RMSE were -0.45 ℃ and 1.22 ℃ for the new model, respectively. Our results suggested that the reliability of hourly temperature estimates at a specific site could be improved taking into account the effect of wind as well as solar radiation.

Estimating the Monthly Precipitation Distribution of North Korea Using the PRISM Model and Enhanced Detailed Terrain Information (PRISM과 개선된 상세 지형정보를 이용한 월별 북한지역 강수량 분포 추정)

  • Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Jin-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.366-372
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    • 2019
  • The PRISM model has been used to estimate precipitation in South Korea where observation data are readily available at a large number of weather station. However, it is likely that the PRISM model would result in relatively low reliability of precipitation estimates in North Korea where weather data are available at a relatively small number of weather stations. Alternatively, a hybrid method has been developed to estimate the precipitation distribution in area where availability of climate data is relatively low. In the hybrid method, Regression coefficients between the precipitation-terrain relationships are applied to a low-resolution precipitation map produced using the PRISM. In the present study, a hybrid approach was applied to North Korea for estimation of precipitation distribution at a high spatial resolution. At first, the precipitation distribution map was produced at a low-resolution (2,430m) using the PRISM model. Secondly, a deviation map was prepared calculating difference between altitudes of synoptic stations and virtual terrains produced using 270m-resolution digital elevation map (DEM). Lastly, another deviation map of precipitation was obtained from the maps of virtual precipitation produced using observation data from the synoptic weather stations and both synoptic and automated weather station (AWS), respectively. The regression equation between precipitation and terrain was determined using these deviation maps. The high resolution map of precipitation distribution was obtained applying the regression equation to the low-resolution map. It was found that the hybrid approach resulted in better representation of the effects of the terrain. The precipitation distribution map for the hybrid approach had similar spatial pattern to that for the existing method. It was estimated that the mean annual cumulative precipitation of entire territory of North Korea was 1,195mm with a standard deviation of 253mm.

Analysis and Prediction for Spatial Distribution of Functional Feeding Groups of Aquatic Insects in the Geum River (금강 수계 수서곤충 섭식기능군의 공간분포 분석 및 예측)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Park, Young-Jun;Nam, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to define a correlation between spatial distribution characteristics of FFG(Functional Feeding Groups) of aquatic insects and related environmental factors in the Geum River based on the theory of RCC(River Continuum Concept). For that objective we had used SMRA(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis) method to analyze close relationship between the distribution of aquatic insects and the physical and chemical factors that may affect their inhabiting environment in the study area. And then, a probabilistic method named Frequency Ratio Model(FRM) and spatial analysis function of GIS were applied to produce a predictive distribution map of biota community considering their distribution characteristics according to the environmental factors as related variables. As a result of SMRA, the values of decision coefficient for factors of elevation, stream width, flow velocity, conductivity, temperature and percentage of sand showed higher than 0.5. Therefore these 6 environmental factors were considered as major factors that might affect the distribution characteristics of aquatic insects. Finally, we had calculated RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between the predicted distribution map and prior survey database from other researches to verify the result of this study. The values of RMSE were calculated from 0.1892 to 0.4242 according to each FFG so we could find out a high reliability of this study. The results of this study might be used to develop a new estimation method for aquatic ecosystem with macro invertebrate community and also be used as preliminary data for conservation and restoration of stream habitats.

A Study on the Estimation of Stability of Fill Dam by Long-term Electrical Resistivity Monitoring (장주기 전기비저항 모니터링 기법을 이용한 필댐의 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Gi-Ho;Lim, Heui-Dae;Ahn, Hee-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2013
  • Resistivity monitoring is based on the fact that a change in the porosity leads to the changes in water content and fine particles, which alter the electrical resistivity. At every embankment dam, internal erosion always occurs as time passes. The internal erosion generally develops into piping over a long time by backward erosion and concentrated leak, and finally leads to dam failure. Resistivity is known to be very sensitive to the changes in porosity in embankment dams. Thus resistivity monitoring is a reasonable method to find out the leakage zone. However, resistivity is strongly influenced by seasonal variation of temperature, TDS of reservoir water and water level. In this paper. we first installed electrodes permanently at the center of the crest. The electrical resistivity monitoring data was acquired every 6 hours from Apr. 3, 2011 to July. 31, 2012. To analyze the characteristics of monitoring data, each resistivity data was calculated from up to 2,950 data sets. The result indicated a seasonal resistivity variation due to related temperature. Finally, a quantitative method to estimate porosities of the embankment dam from the resistivity monitoring data was analyzed. The applicability and reliability were verified and the importance of electrical resistivity monitoring for obtaining reliable result was emphasized.

Estimation of Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Distribution by Multi-notched Specimen (다응력집중부(多應力集中部)를 가진 판(判)에 의(依)한 피로균열(疲勞龜裂) 발생수명(發生壽命) 분포(分布) 추정(推定))

  • S.W. Kang;D.S. Uom;J.H. Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.234-243
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    • 1992
  • Fatigue crack initiation life has a wide scatter and this makes the fatigue design of structural members difficult. In order to make the fatigue life distribution clear, it is required to prepare a large number of specimens and repeat the fatigue tests under the same loading condition. Such fatigue tests usually take much time and cost. In this study, a fatigue testing method using a multi-notched test specimen for the purpose of estimating the distribution function of fatigue crack initiation life by small number of fatigue tests is used. The purpose of this study is to verify the above fatigue testing method of a multi-notched specimen by using Bayesian reliability analysis, Least square method and Skewness method for the determination of unknown Weibull parameters. The multi-notched specimen is a specimen in which several tens of statistically identical notches are prepared.

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Localization Using Extended Kalman Filter based on Chirp Spread Spectrum Ranging (확장 Kalman 필터를 적용한 첩 신호 대역확산 거리 측정 기반의 위치추정시스템)

  • Bae, Byoung-Chul;Nam, Yoon-Seok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2012
  • Location-based services with GPS positioning technology as a key technology, but recognizing the current location through satellite communication is not possible in an indoor location-aware technology, low-power short-range communication is primarily made of the study. Especially, as Chirp Spread Spectrum(CSS) based location-aware approach for low-power physical layer IEEE802.15.4a is selected as a standard, Ranging distance estimation techniques and data transfer speed enhancements have been more developed. It is known that the distance measured by CSS ranging has quite a lot of noise as well as its bias. However, the noise problem can be adjusted by modeling the non-zero mean noise value by a scaling factor which corresponds to the change of magnitude of a measured distance vector. In this paper, we propose a localization system using the CSS signal to measure distance for a mobile node taken a measurement of the exact coordinates. By applying the extended kalman filter and least mean squares method, the localization system is faster, more stable. Finally, we evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the proposed algorithm's performance by the experiment for the realization of localization system.

Estimation of PM2.5 Correction Factor for Optical Particle Counter in Ambient Air (대기환경에서 광산란 미세먼지 측정기의 PM2.5 보정계수 산정)

  • Kim, Jong Bum;Kim, Danbi;Noh, Sujin;Yoon, Kwan Hoon;Park, Duckshin;Lee, Jeong Joo;Kim, Jeongho
    • Particle and aerosol research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2020
  • Various devices have been developed to the measurement of particulate matter pollutants, and Optical Particle Counter (OPC) that can be easily and quickly measured is widely used lately. The measured value by OPC is converted to weight concentration using the correction factor (CF). The calculation of CF is very important to improve the reliability and accuracy of OPC. In this study, the CF calculation study of light scattering laser photometer (model 8533, TSI) was carried out to measure in the atmospheric environment using 2 gravimetric devices and 3 light scattering laser photometer devices. Regression analysis and Tukey tests were used to significance the test of measurement devices. Measurements were carried out twice. There was a comparative analysis of measurement data between light scattering laser photometer and gravimetric devices in 1st measurement, and then the Evaluation of PM2.5 concentration corrected by CF performed in 2nd measurement. As a result of the significance analysis between light scattering laser photometer and gravimetric devices, the correlation between the same method was high, but the correlation between different methods was low. CF was calculated as 0.4258 based on the measurement results, and it is a similar level to previous studies at home and abroad. It is expected that these results can be used as basic data in the future study for air quality measurement research using light scattering laser photometer. Also, in order to improve the accuracy of the measurement techniques and the development of technology in the atmospheric environment, CF calculation research should be conducted continuously.

Estimation of Pollutant Load to Yongdam Reservoir Considering Rainfall Effect (강우의 영향을 고려한 용담호 유입오염부하량 산정)

  • Lee, Eun-Hyong;Seo, Dong-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.521-531
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    • 2003
  • Pollutant load to Yongdam Reservoir considering rainfall effect is estimated using data collected during dry and wet days between Dec 1998 and Oct. 1999. Limit of significant rainfall was assumed to be as 10 mm/day and numbers of days of significant rainfall for each month were counted using 10 years of meteorological data of the study area. Water quality input concentrations were estimated by taking weighted averages of concentrations in dry and wet days in each month. The resulting concentrations were used as inputs for water quality modeling of Yongdam Reservoir. When rainfall effect was included average reservoir concentrations of BOD, TN and TP were increased by 70%, 5% and 27%, respectively Considering the fact that Korea is under the significant influence of monsoon effect during the summer, it should be important to include rainfall effect in estimating pollutant input to receiving waters. This method is expected to increase reliability of annual water quality modeling results by providing realistic input data.

Application of Inference Models for Estimating Parameters of a Catchment Modelling System (추론모델을 통한 강우-유출모형 매개변수의 간접추정법 적용)

  • Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.587-596
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    • 2003
  • Application of a catchment modelling system requires recorded information to ascertain the reliability and robustness of the predicted flow conditions. Where this recorded information is not available, the necessary information for reliable and robust predictions must be obtained from other available information sources. The alternative approach presented in this paper used inference models for getting this necessary information that is required to calibrate and validate the catchment modelling system for both an ungauged and a gauged catchments. In this study, inference models were developed for determination of control parameters of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), mainly based on landuse component of the catchment, which is a major factor to impact on quantity and quality of catchment runoff. Results from the study show that the new approach for determination of the spatially variable control parameters produced more accurate estimates than a traditional approach. Also, the number of control parameters estimated can be reduced significantly as the proposed method only requires determination of control parameters associated with each land use of the catchment while a traditional approach needs to assign a number of control parameters for a number of subcatchment.

The study on scheme for train position detection based on GPS/DR (GPS/DR기반의 차상열차위치검지방안 연구)

  • Shin, Kyung-Ho;Joung, Eui-Jin;Lee, Jun-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2006.11b
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    • pp.802-810
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    • 2006
  • For a thorough train control, the precise train position detection is necessarily required. The widely used current way for train position detection is the one of using track circuits. The track circuit has a simple structure, and has a high level of reliability. However trains can be detected only on track circuits, which have to be installed on all ground sections, and much amount of cost for its installation and maintenance is needed. In addition, for the track circuit, only discontinuous position detection is possible because of the features of the closed circuit loop configuration. As the recent advances in telecommunication technologies and high-tech vehicle-based control equipments, for the train position detection, the method to detect positions directly from on trains is being studied. Vehicle-based position detection method is to estimate train positions, speed, timing data continuously, and to use them as the control information. In this paper, the features of GPS navigation and DR navigation are analyzed, and the navigation filters are designed by constructing vehicle-based train position detection method by combining GPS navigation and DR navigation for their complementary cooperation, and by using kalman filter. The position estimation performance of the proposed method is also confirmed by simulations.

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