• Title/Summary/Keyword: reduced-order model

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Behavioral Change of Workers who completed Experiential Safety Training (체험식 안전교육 이수 근로자의 행동 변화 연구)

  • Choonhwan, Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.161-172
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    • 2023
  • Safety education delivered to construction workers in a lecture manner has limitations in concentration and immersion, so delivery power and interest are low. In order to improve unstable behavior through education and prevent safety accidents, it is necessary to change the paradigm to hands-on education. Purpose: Experiential safety education aims to contribute to preventing accidents for construction workers by quickly recognizing risks, improving emergency response skills, and verifying the effectiveness of pre- and post-learning. Method: Based on a survey of workers who experienced the same work environment as the actual construction site, an opinion survey on the pre- and post-safety experience education and a variable measurement tool were planned, and a research hypothesis was established. Results: The Bayesian theory and MC simulation analysis were used to analyze the structural equation model, and the change in construction worker behavior was confirmed through the intended safety (A), non-experiential education in the sub-area of anxiety (B), average, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum values. Conclusion: The effect of education and industrial accidents are reduced only when construction workers are motivated to participate.

Development of Deep Learning Structure to Secure Visibility of Outdoor LED Display Board According to Weather Change (날씨 변화에 따른 실외 LED 전광판의 시인성 확보를 위한 딥러닝 구조 개발)

  • Sun-Gu Lee;Tae-Yoon Lee;Seung-Ho Lee
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.340-344
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we propose a study on the development of deep learning structure to secure visibility of outdoor LED display board according to weather change. The proposed technique secures the visibility of the outdoor LED display board by automatically adjusting the LED luminance according to the weather change using deep learning using an imaging device. In order to automatically adjust the LED luminance according to weather changes, a deep learning model that can classify the weather is created by learning it using a convolutional network after first going through a preprocessing process for the flattened background part image data. The applied deep learning network reduces the difference between the input value and the output value using the Residual learning function, inducing learning while taking the characteristics of the initial input value. Next, by using a controller that recognizes the weather and adjusts the luminance of the outdoor LED display board according to the weather change, the luminance is changed so that the luminance increases when the surrounding environment becomes bright, so that it can be seen clearly. In addition, when the surrounding environment becomes dark, the visibility is reduced due to scattering of light, so the brightness of the electronic display board is lowered so that it can be seen clearly. By applying the method proposed in this paper, the result of the certified measurement test of the luminance measurement according to the weather change of the LED sign board confirmed that the visibility of the outdoor LED sign board was secured according to the weather change.

Optimal flammability and thermal buckling resistance of eco-friendly abaca fiber/ polypropylene/egg shell powder/halloysite nanotubes composites

  • Saeed Kamarian;Reza Barbaz-Isfahani;Thanh Mai Nguyen Tran;Jung-Il Song
    • Advances in nano research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.127-140
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    • 2024
  • Upon direct/indirect exposure to flame or heat, composite structures may burn or thermally buckle. This issue becomes more important in the natural fiber-based composite structures with higher flammability and lower mechanical properties. The main goal of the present study was to obtain an optimal eco-friendly composite system with low flammability and high thermal buckling resistance. The studied composite consisted of polypropylene (PP) and short abaca fiber (AF) with eggshell powder (ESP) and halloysite clay nanotubes (HNTs) additives. An optimal base composite, consisting of 30 wt.% AF and 70 wt.% PP, abbreviated as OAP, was initially introduced based on burning rate (BR) and the Young's modulus determined by horizontal burning test (HBT) and tensile test, respectively. The effects of adding ESP to the base composite were then investigated with the same experimental tests. The results indicated that though the BR significantly decreased with the increase of ESP content up to 6 wt.%, it had a very destructive influence on the stiffness of the composite. To compensate for the damaging effect of ESP, small amount of HNT was used. The performance of OAP composite with 6 wt.% ESP and 3 wt.% HNT (OAPEH) was explored by conducting HBT, cone calorimeter test (CCT) and tensile test. The experimental results indicated a 9~23 % reduction in almost all flammability parameters such as heat release rate (HRR), total heat released (THR), maximum average rate of heat emission (MARHE), total smoke released (TSR), total smoke production (TSP), and mass loss (ML) during combustion. Furthermore, the combination of 6 wt.% ESP and 3 wt.% HNT reduced the stiffness of OAP to an insignificant amount by maximum 3%. Moreover, the char residue analysis revealed the distinct differences in the formation of char between AF/PP and AF/PP/ESP/HNT composites. Afterward, dilatometry test was carried out to examine the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of OAP and OAPEH samples. The obtained results showed that the CTE of OAPEH composite was about 18% less than that of OAP. Finally, a theoretical model was used based on first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT) to predict the critical bucking temperatures of the OAP and OAPEH composite plates. It was shown that in the absence of mechanical load, the critical buckling temperatures of OAPEH composite plates were higher than those of OAP composites, such that the difference between the buckling temperatures increased with the increase of thickness. On the contrary, the positive effect of CTE reduction on the buckling temperature decreased by raising the axial compressive mechanical load on the composite plates which can be assigned to the reduction of stiffness after the incorporation of ESP. The results of present study generally stated that a suitable combination of AF, PP, ESP, and HNT can result in a relatively optimal and environmentally friendly composite with proper flame and thermal buckling resistance with no significant decline in the stiffness.

Open Innovation in Car-Sharing Industry: Focusing on the Cooperation Case between Gongcar and Rental Car Company (카셰어링 산업의 개방형 혁신: (주)공카와 렌터카 업체간 개방형 혁신 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kiyeon Hwang;Jaehong Park;Youngwoo Sohn;Woosung Nam;Yeonhwa Cho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 2024
  • Car-sharing is a representative model of the sharing economy, and it is a service that rents or uses a car for the necessary time without owning a car. This industry is growing due to various factors such as technological advances, increasing awareness of environmental protection, and increasing demand for solving traffic congestion problems in cities. Accordingly, there is a need for a strategic approach for companies providing car-sharing services to respond quickly to market changes in order to expand market share and differentiate services. Accordingly, this study conducted a case study on open innovation activities between Gongcar and existing rental car companies, focusing on the research question "What effects do open innovation activities between car-sharing companies and existing rental car companies cause?" As a result of the study, it was confirmed that Gongcar have (1) the ability to actively respond to market fluctuations by establishing a flexible vehicle supply chain based on demand, (2) have significantly reduced growth capital expenditure (Growth Capex), and both cafe and rental car companies have (3) performed successful open innovation by improving key KPI indicators and recording financial performance. This study reveals how open innovation acts as a key business growth engine in the car-sharing industry, and its significance is found in that it empirically confirmed the successful implementation conditions of open innovation based on resource dependence theory.

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The Application of Customer Relationship Management for the Effective Prenatal Care (효과적인 산전관리를 위한 고객관계관리(CRM)의 도입)

  • Shin, Sook;Paik, Soo-Kyung;Kang, Sung-Hong;Kim, Yu-Mi
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.93-114
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    • 2005
  • The prenatal care is the preventive medical service to help the pregnant mother deliver the healthy baby. It's regular examines give some chances to check-up the healthy conditions. This thesis concentrates on the CRM system to support an effective prenatal care system and prove the effectiveness of it. As CRM is the adapted management related to the customer's own information, it is important to develop the CRM model classified by the patients characteristics. A general hospital in Busan operated the CRM system to carry out the effective prenatal care and there is an analysis to ensure the effectiveness of CRM system for the pregnant women in our maternity ward. The results can be summarized as follows: 1) According to the comparisons with the CRM system, we can conclude the system is desirable. (1) Maternal Age : In the age distribution, the prenatal visit frequency, triple marker freqency, oral GTT and targeted ultrasonography in the experimental group in 30 to 34 years old is higher on the whole. For over 35 years old group, the higher frequency comes out in the oral GTT and targeted ultrasonography and for 25 to 29 years old group the different figure shows just in the targeted ultrasonography. (2) Area of residence: There is a clear difference in all the items in Busan and near area but no sign of difference in prenatal visits and oral GTT in other residencial area. Especially in the targeted ultrasonography the higher figure shows in the experimental group located in the both areas. The targeted ultrasonography is known as the specific examination which should be examined by the specialists, on the contrary the other examinations can be operated in the small clinic. So the public information and seminars related with ultrasonography increases the check-up frequency. The clinic requests some ultrasonographical examinations to the specialists in general hospital. (3) Parity: The clear difference shows that the CRM system causes the prenatal visit frequency to become higher in experimental group. The figure is 9.7 times and 8.6 times each. This is opposite that the past study said multiparity reduced the average prenatal visits. But the result of CRM is considered as the method to help the multiparity understand the importance of the prenatal care. (4) Obstetrical history: In the experimental group of the spontaneous delivery group, the figure is higher in the prenatal visit frequency, triple marker, oral GTT and targeted ultrasonography but the Caesarean section delivery group has higher figure in targeted ultrasonography. (5) In the first check-up, the rate of targeted ultrasonography in under 16 week pregnancy, in the 16 week pregnancy to 32 week pregnancy and the over 32 week pregnancy in the experimental group is upper than the compared one. For the oral GTT, there is a difference in under 16 week pregnancy but no difference in prenatal visits and triple marker. 2) The analysis of characteristics of prenatal care through the decision tree resulted in the fact that the most important variable is the residential area. After the delivery frequency is following, the obstetrical history and maternal age are in order. It is the same result in the triple marker and oral GTT. Consequently it is the same order of important variables in CRM system. The effectiveness of CRM system is proved in this study. The CRM system is a marketing method to control and lead the customers through the segmentation of customer data. It increases the new customer aquisition, maintenance of loyal customers, augmentation of customers value, activation of potential customers and creation of life time customers. So eventually it can enlarge the customers value. The medical institution should make efforts to establish the data base enforced by the customer's information on the underlying ordinary data system to carry out the CRM system effectively. In addition, it should develop the a variety of marketing strategy in order to set up one to one marketing satisfying the needs of individual patients.

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A Study on the Intercity Mode Choice Behavior of Daegu Citizens According to the Introduction of Gyeongbu High-Speed Railway (경부 고속철도 개통에 따른 대구시민의 지역 간 통행수단 선택행태 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Dae-Sik;Yuk, Tae-Suk;Kim, Sang-Hwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.1 s.87
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2006
  • After the first opening of the KTX in April 2004, travel time between major cities has been dramatically reduced. The reduction rates range from 32% to 47%. Considering travel time reduction between major cities, this study concerned about the intercity travel impact of the KTX operation. This study aimed to analyze intercity mode choice behavior of Daegu Citizens according to the first opening of the KTX. This study takes place in two sections. These are (i) the section of KTX between Daegu and Seoul, and (ii) the section of KTX between Daegu and Daejeon. This study estimated empirical models for analyzing intercity mode choice behavior according to the first opening of the KTX. This study makes use of the data from travel survey from Daegu metropolitan area. The main part of the survey was carried out in the KTX Dong-Daegu station. The survey data includes the information on travel from Daegu to Daejeon and from Daegu to Seoul. In order to analyze intercity choice behavior according to the frist opening of the KTX, multinomial model structure is used. For the model specification, a variety of behavioral assumptions about the factors which affect the mode choice, were considered. From the empirical model estimation, it is found that OVTT(Out-of-Vehicle Travel Time), OVTC(Out-of-Vehicle Travel Cost), IVTT(In-Vehicle Travel Time), IVTC(In-Vehicle Travel Cost), travel frequency, travel purpose, sex, age, occupation. household income, individual income are significant in choosing intercity travel mode. However, it is found that the intercity nde choice behavior is different between (i) the section of KTX between Daegu and Seoul, and (ii) the section of KTX between Daegu and Daejeon. Furthermore, some policy implications are discussed in conclusion.

Limit Pricing by Noncooperative Oligopolists (과점산업(寡占産業)에서의 진입제한가격(進入制限價格))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 1990
  • A Milgrom-Roberts style signalling model of limit pricing is developed to analyze the possibility and the scope of limit pricing in general, noncooperative oligopolies. The model contains multiple incumbent firms facing a potential entrant and assumes an information asymmetry between incombents and the potential entrant about the market demand. There are two periods in the model. In period 1, n incumbent firms simultaneously and noncooperatively choose quantities. At the end of period 1, the potential entrant observes the market price and makes an entry decision. In period 2, depending on the entry decision of the entrant, n' or (n+1) firms choose quantities again before the game terminates. Since the choice of incumbent firms in period 1 depends on their information about demand, the market price in period 1 conveys information about the market demand. Thus, there is a systematic link between the market price and the profitability of entry. Using Bayes-Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we find that there exist some demand conditions under which incumbent firms will limit price. In symmetric equilibria, incumbent firms each produce an output that is greater than the Cournot output and induce a price that is below the Cournot price. In doing so, each incumbent firm refrains from maximizing short-run profit and supplies a public good that is entry deterrence. The reason that entry is deterred by such a reduced price is that it conveys information about the demand of the industry that is unfavorable to the entrant. This establishes the possibility of limit pricing by noncooperative oligopolists in a setting that is fully rational, and also generalizes the result of Milgrom and Roberts to general oligopolies, confirming Bain's intuition. Limit pricing by incumbents explained above can be interpreted as a form of credible collusion in which each firm voluntarily deviates from myopic optimization in order to deter entry using their superior information. This type of implicit collusion differs from Folk-theorem type collusions in many ways and suggests that a collusion can be a credible one even in finite games as long as there is information asymmetry. Another important result is that as the number of incumbent firms approaches infinity, or as the industry approaches a competitive one, the probability that limit pricing occurs converges to zero and the probability of entry converges to that under complete information. This limit result confirms the intuition that as the number of agents sharing the same private information increases, the value of the private information decreases, and the probability that the information gets revealed increases. This limit result also supports the conventional belief that there is no entry problem in a competitive market. Considering the fact that limit pricing is generally believed to occur at an early stage of an industry and the fact that many industries in Korea are oligopolies in their infant stages, the theoretical results of this paper suggest that we should pay attention to the possibility of implicit collusion by incumbent firms aimed at deterring new entry using superior information. The long-term loss to the Korean economy from limit pricing can be very large if the industry in question is a part of the world market and the domestic potential entrant whose entry is deterred could .have developed into a competitor in the world market. In this case, the long-term loss to the Korean economy should include the lost opportunity in the world market in addition to the domestic long-run welfare loss.

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Optimal Spatial Scale for Land Use Change Modelling : A Case Study in a Savanna Landscape in Northern Ghana (지표피복변화 연구에서 최적의 공간스케일의 문제 : 가나 북부지역의 사바나 지역을 사례로)

  • Nick van de Giesen;Paul L. G. Vlek;Park Soo Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.2 s.107
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2005
  • Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LUCC) occur over a wide range of space and time scales, and involve complex natural, socio-economic, and institutional processes. Therefore, modelling and predicting LUCC demands an understanding of how various measured properties behave when considered at different scales. Understanding spatial and temporal variability of driving forces and constraints on LUCC is central to understanding the scaling issues. This paper aims to 1) assess the heterogeneity of land cover change processes over the landscape in northern Ghana, where intensification of agricultural activities has been the dominant land cover change process during the past 15 years, 2) characterise dominant land cover change mechanisms for various spatial scales, and 3) identify the optimal spatial scale for LUCC modelling in a savanna landscape. A multivariate statistical method was first applied to identify land cover change intensity (LCCI), using four time-sequenced NDVI images derived from LANDSAT scenes. Three proxy land use change predictors: distance from roads, distance from surface water bodies, and a terrain characterisation index, were regressed against the LCCI using a multi-scale hierarchical adaptive model to identify scale dependency and spatial heterogeneity of LUCC processes. High spatial associations between the LCCI and land use change predictors were mostly limited to moving windows smaller than 10$\times$10km. With increasing window size, LUCC processes within the window tend to be too diverse to establish clear trends, because changes in one part of the window are compensated elsewhere. This results in a reduced correlation between LCCI and land use change predictors at a coarser spatial extent. The spatial coverage of 5-l0km is incidentally equivalent to a village or community area in the study region. In order to reduce spatial variability of land use change processes for regional or national level LUCC modelling, we suggest that the village level is the optimal spatial investigation unit in this savanna landscape.

Stereoscopic depth of surfaces lying in the same visual direction depends on the visual direction of surface features (표면 요소의 시선방향에 의한 동일시선 상에 놓여있는 표면의 입체시 깊이 변화)

  • Kham Keetaek
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2004
  • When two objects are tying in the same visual direction there occurs abrupt depth change between two objects, which is against the assumption of the computational model for stereopsis on the surfaces in a natural scene. For this reason, this stimulus configuration is popularly used in the studies for the effectiveness of the constraints employed in the computational model. Contrary to the results from two nails (or objects) tying in the same visual direction, the two different surfaces from random-dot stereogram (RDS) in the same situation can be seen simultaneously in the different depth. The seemingly contradictory results between two situations my reflect the different strategies imposed by binocular mechanism for each situation during binocular matching process. Otherwise, the surfaces tying in the same visual direction is not equivalent situation to two objects tying in the same visual direction with regards to matching process. In order to examine above possibilities, the stereoscopic depth of the surface was measured after manipulating the visual direction of the surface elements. The visual direction of each dot pair from different surfaces in RDS (in Experiment 1) or the visual direction of line (hawing rectangle with regard to that of the vertical line (in Experiment 2) was manipulated. The stereoscopic depth of the surface was found to be varied depending on visual direction of the surface elements in both RDS and line hawing stimulus. Similar to the results from two nails situation depth of the surface was greatly reduced when each surface element was tying in the same visual direction as that of the other surface element or the other object. These results suggest that binocular mechanism imposes no different strategy in resolving correspondence problem in both two objects and two surfaces situation. And the results were discussed in the context of usefulness of the constraints employed in the computational model for stereopsis.

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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