• Title/Summary/Keyword: recession time

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The Term Structure and Predicting the Domestic Recessions (금리의 기간구조와 경기후퇴의 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Song, Dae-Sub
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2009
  • Various methods have been suggested in developing the useful leading indicators to predict the actual realizations when time laps exist between policy plannings and future events. The recent economic crisis could have been relived if the information necessary to respond to the future evolutionary process is provided in advance. As the relations between the financial variables and the real economic activity become unstable because of the changes in the financial environment, this study attempts to estimate the capabilities of various internal and external term spreads in predicting the future business trend, followed by comparison and evaluation.

Study of microstructure of carbon-based materials in plasma wind tunnel testing

  • Kang, Bo-Ram;Lim, Hyeon-Mi;Oh, Phil-Yong;Hong, Bong Guen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2016.02a
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    • pp.200.2-200.2
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    • 2016
  • Carbon-based materials have been known as ablative material and have been used for thermal protection systems. Ablation is an erosive phenomenon that results in thermochemical and thermomechanical changes on materials. Ablation resistance is one of the key properties that determines performance and life-time of the thermal protection material under ablative conditions. In this study, ablation properties of graphite, 3-dimensional (C/C) composites (needle-punched type and rod type) were investigated byusing a plasma wind tunnel which produce a supersonic plasma flow from a segmented arc heater with the power level of 0.4 MW. The mass losses and surface roughness changes which contain main result of the ablation are measured. A morphological analysis ofthe carbon-based materials, before and after the ablation test, are performed through field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and non-contact 3D surface measuring system. Electronic balance and a portable surface roughness tester were used for evaluation of the recession and mass loss of the test samples.

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The Empirical Analysis about Structural Characteristics of the Housing Jeonse Price Change in Seoul (서울시 주택전세가격 변동양상에 대한 실증분석)

  • Jung, Yeong-Ki;Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2012
  • While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.

A Study on Characteristics of Coastline Change in Eastern Coast Korea (한국 동해안의 변화특성)

  • 이종태
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 1979
  • This paper concerns the receding of the eastern coastline of Korean peninsula at a macroscopic point of view, the result is as following. 1. Eastern coast is gradually developed from maturity stage to full maturity stage. 2. The coastline recession due to sea level rise is amounted to the receding distance, x=0.045 m per yr. 3. The author proposes another classification from the new view point, which is classified by comparing quantities between river supplying sediment loads, and the littoral drifting due to wave actions. According this, eastern coast is receding(Type Q-A), and we could find it's geomorphological characteristics. 4. The general piofile of eastern coast sand beach is erosional storm profile(Type I) which accompany offshore bar. 5. From the wave measuring data of eastern coast(Hoopo port), I can derive the linear regression line of the exceedance probability of wave height from the log-normal distribution. $z=O. 113+4.335 log_lo H, r=0.983.$ Above equation made it possible to estimate $\omega[=P(H>H_c)]for the effective wave height H_c=2. Om4, 4. Om and their corresponding values are considerable (7.8%, 0.3%) 6. Eastern coastline certainly have the tendency of erosive and receding, owing to the sea level rise, poor sediment source and effective wave actions. It's very desirable to survey coastline evolution for a long time systematically, in order to make more elaborate diagnosis.

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Economic Popularism and Globalization

  • KIM, Dongho;YOUN, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.37-41
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the recent resurgence of popularism and the possible impacts it may have on contemporary business and economics. Research design, data and methodology: This is an exploratory case study that examines the rise of popularism and identifies and analyzes the likely implications for contemporary business and economics. Results: Although populists tend to reject elitism, capitalism, economic globalization, and political establishment, their ethnocentric behavior is no different from those of the corrupt political and economic elites. Popularism does enable nationalism and protectionism and negatively impacts business and economic growth. Conclusions: Popularism existed for a long time, and this phenomenon will continue to exist as long as a triggered mechanism exist, e.g., income inequality, resurgence of immigration, recession, insufficient factors of resources and social welfare. The recent rise of popularism is not a fad or a short-lived anti-establishment and anti-elitism movements but, rather, a force to be reckoned with in the near future. The rise of economic nationalism limits international trade, integration, and cooperation. As a result, international capital, service, and product flows will decline, and countries and multinational corporations have to develop and restructure their international supply and value chain to cope with this phenomenon.

A study on the Productivity Management System of small and medium sized companies (중소기업의 생산성 경영시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sok-Eun;Oh, Seon-Il;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2008
  • Advanced countries worldwide lead government leading management innovation by suggesting unique managing system which can be survived in global economy war including JQA of Japan and EFQM of Europe based basically on MBNQA of U.S.A. and by rewarding to suitable companies. Mckinsey, global management and consulting company points out that Korea has no management because Korean productivity level which dependence to small and medium sized companies is high by the limitation of elemental invests leading type growth strategy including labor and capital is only 1/2 of U.S.A. and 2/3 of Japan. In particular, the competitive power of Korean small and medium sized companies goes into a recession by productivity lowering according to the chinese follow-up, laboring time shortening, variety and aging, and fundamental management innovation activities for reinforcing survival and competitive power are needed. Therefore, in this study, we try to construct the model of productivity managing system of innovation type small and medium sized companies which make excellent results.

Case Study of Spatial Planning for the Efficient Use of Small Dwelling Space (소규모 주거공간의 효율적 활용을 위한 공간계획 사례연구)

  • Park, Si-Yoon;Kim, Jeong-Ah
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2014
  • In the domestic housing market, uncompleted lot-solid apartments and unoccupied residences are increasing in the medium-large scale area whose rents and transactions have been unstable, as going through the financial crisis and economical recession. Demands for small-scale housings are steadily increasing by practical consumer group who don't need large places, which are often not needed for the current people who are spending most of their time outside of their houses. Therefore, this study proposes the useful methods for spatial planning for small-scale houses for multiple households, including variable form, levels form, multi-level form, and smart-sizing. For efficient spatial planning for that purpose, here, small-scale housings are not limited to places for families with 1-2 members, but considered as one of broader approaches to graft various households and families. In addition, we examined the existed trends of researches about spatial utility of small-scale places, and did the research about the status of small-scale housing developments, and then proposed the direction for future small-scale housings by analyzing the advanced examples.

The Relationship between the State of the Economy and High Heel Height - Based on Pump Style Shoes on Fashion Editorial Section of US Vogue - (경제와 여성 구두 굽 높이 변화의 관계 - 미국 Vogue 패션편집란에 실린 펌프스타일을 중심으로 -)

  • Ahn, Insook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.65 no.7
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    • pp.86-100
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    • 2015
  • This study is to investigate the relationships between heel height and macro-economic factors - recession and unemployment; and to analyze the time lags reflecting economic factors on heel height index using U.S. data. The life-history evolution theory was applied to propose the relationships studied. The data for the heel height measurements of women's shoes - pump style only - were obtained from US Vogue fashion editorial sections on spring and fall editions from 1950 to 2014. I divided the heel height by the length of the shoes in order to standardize the data. Total of 1581 samples were used, and heel height data were aggregated to create a yearly average. To explore the relationships between macro-economic factors and heel height, this study used OLS of Stata 13 program. The main findings show that unemployment rates influenced heel height for three years in a positive direction. Furthermore, the effects of unemployment rate from two years ago on the current heel height were very close to being on a significant level.

Hydrologic Cycle Simulation of Urban River for Rehabilitation of Water Environment (II) - Dorimcheon Basin - (물 환경 건전화를 위한 도시하천의 물 순환 모의 (II) - 도림천 유역 -)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Lee, Jung-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.815-823
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    • 2006
  • The hydrologic cycle in urban catchment has been changed due to the expansion of impervious area by rapid urban development. In this study, the SWMM 5 (Storm Water Management Model 5) model was used to simulate the hydrologic cycle of the Dorimcheon catchment which suffers from the distorted hydrologic cycle as a typical urban catchment. This study compare continuous simulation of urban runoff combining the channel and sewer system with that of channel only in the Dorimcheon catchment. Continuous simulations of urban runoff were performed for the upstream basin of Dorim bridge. The urban impervious regions were processed by the land use analysis from LANDSAT_TM images. It was performed from 1975 to 2000 for every five years. Surface, groundwater and wastewater runoffs were additionally included in the simulations one at a time. Such simulations made it possible to evaluate those components quantitatively. The result of continuous simulation of urban runoff combining the channel and sewer system is that peak flow and recession are well simulated. The analysis results of urbanization effect on runoff are as follows: the surface runoff in 2000 increases to 64% of the whole precipitation whereas the surface runoff in 1975 amounts to 46% of the precipitation; the groundwater runoff in 2000 amounts to 6% and shows 8% decrease during the period from 1975 to 2000.

GIS Application Model for Spatial Simulation of Surface Runoff from a Small Watershed(I) (소유역 지표유출의 공간적 해석을 위한 지리정보시스템의 응용모형(I) -격자 물수지 모형의 개발 및 적용-)

  • 김대식;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.3_4
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 1995
  • Geographic data which are difficult to handle by the characteristics of spatial variation and variety turned into a possibility to analyze with tlie computer-aided digital map and the use of Geographic Information System(GIS). The purpose of this study is to develop and apply a GIS application model (GISCELWAB) for the spatial simulation of surface runoff from a small watershed. This paper discribes the modeling procedure and the applicability of the cell water balance model (CELWAB) which calculates the water balance of a cell and simulates surface runoff of watershed simultaneously by the interaction of cells. The cell water balance model was developed to simulate the temporal and spatial storage depth and surface runoff of a watershed. The CELWAB model was constituted by Inflow-Outflow Calculator (JOC) which was developed to connect cell-to-cell transport mechanism automatically in this study. The CELWAB model requests detail data for each component of a cell hydrologic process. In this study, therefore, BANWOL watershed which have available field data was selected, and sensitivity for several model parameters was analyzed. The simulated results of surface runoff agreed well with the observed data for the rising phase of hydrograph except the recession phase. Each mean of relative errors for peak discharge and peak time was 0.21% and2.1 1% respectively. In sensitivity analysis of CELWAB , antecedent soil moisture condition(AMC) affected most largely the model.

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