• Journal of Trauma and Injury
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.139-144
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• 2012

Purpose: Hypovolemic shock is the leading cause of death in multiple trauma patients with pelvic bone fracures. The purpose of this study was to develop a simple prediction method for injury severity and amount of hemorrhage via an analysis of the correlation between the site of pelvic bone fracture and the amount of transfusion and to verify the usefulness of the such a simple scoring system. Methods: We analyzed retrospectively the medical records and radiologic examination of 102 patients who had been diagnosed as having a pelvic bone fracture and who had visited the Emergency Department between January 2007 and December 2011. Fracture sites in the pelvis were confirmed and re-classified anatomically as pubis, ilium or sacrum. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed on the amount of transfusion, and a simplified scoring system was developed. The predictive value of the amount of transfusion for the scoring system as verified by using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC). The area under the curve of the ROC was compared with the injury severity score (ISS). Results: From among the 102 patients, 97 patients (M:F=68:29, mean $age=46.7{\pm}16.6years$) were enrolled for analysis. The average ISS of the patients was $16.2{\pm}7.9$, and the average amount of packed RBC transfusion for 24 hr was $3.9{\pm}4.6units$. The regression equation resulting from the multiple linear regression analysis was 'packed RBC units=1.40${\times}$(sacrum fracture)+1.72${\times}$(pubis fracture)+1.67${\times}$(ilium fracture)+0.36' and was found to be suitable (p=0.005). We simplified the regression equation to 'Pelvic Bleeding Score=sacrum+pubis+ilium.' Each fractured site was scored as 0(no fracture) point, 1(right or left) point, or 2(both) points. Sacrum had only 0 or 1 point. The score ranged from 0 to 5. The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC was 0.718 (95% CI: 0.588-0.848, p=0.009). For an upper Pelvis Bleeding Score of 3 points, the sensitivity of the prediction for a massive transfusion was 71.4%, and the specificity was 69.9%. Conclusion: We developed a simplified scoring system for the anatomical fracture sites in the pelvis to predict the requirement for a transfusion (Pelvis Bleeding Score (PBS)). The PBS, compared with the ISS, is considered a useful predictor of the need for a transfusion during initial management.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 2010

Beam quality is determined according to Xray tube's target material. In a range of between 22 kVp and 28 kVp, molybdenum target generates the characteristics energy between the average 17.9 kVp and 19.5 kVp, which produces the high contrast image of the breast. In this study, we used the Mo/Mo combination breast device and ALVIM TRM phantom and measured the detection ability of the minute lesion in the breast imaging throughout analyzing ROC curves. Assuming that an average subject thickness of the breast is 40 mm, the detection ability was not dependent on the kVp changes in a while dependent on both the mAs and thickness change. We can assure that it is not needed to increase the kVp for the imaging of breast which thickness is within the mean range of 40 mm.

• Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.490-498
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• 2014

Objectives: This study was conducted to propose the need of re-establishing the criteria of the body weight classification in the elderly. We compared the Asia-Pacific Region Criteria (APR-C) with Entropy Model Criteria (ENT-C) using Morbidity rate of chronic diseases which correlates significantly with Body Mass Index (BMI). Methods: Subjects were 886 elderly female participating in the 2007-2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). We compared APR-C with those of ENT-C using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis. Results: In the case of the morbidity of hypertension, the results were as follows: Where it was in the T-off point of APR-C, sensitivity was 67.5%, specificity was 43.1%, and Youden's index was 10.6. While in the cut-off point of ENT-C, it was 56.7%, 56.6%, and 13.3 respectively. In the case of the morbidity of diabetes, the results were as follows: In the cut-off point of APR-C, Youden's index was 14.2. While in the cut-off point of ENT-C, it was 17.2 respectively. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of the subjects who had more than 2 diseases among hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia was 0.615 (95% CI: 0.578-0.652). Compared to the normal group, the odds ratio of the hypertension group which will belong to the overweight or obesity was 1.79 (95% CI: 1.30-2.47) in the APR-C, and 2.04 (95% CI: 1.49-2.80) in the ENT-C (p < 0.001). Conclusions: We conclude that the optimal cut-off point of BMI to distinguish between normal weight and overweight was $24kg/m^2$ (ENT-C) rather than $23kg/m^2$ (APR-C).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.769-779
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• 2017

As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.279-289
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• 2019

Unlike other natural disasters, drought is a reoccurring and region-wide phenomenon after being triggered by a prolonged precipitation deficiency. Considering that remote sensing products provide consistent temporal and spatial measurements of precipitation, this study developed a remote sensing data-based drought outlook model. The meteorological drought was defined by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) achieved from PERSIANN_CDR, TRMM 3B42 and GPM IMERG images. Bayesian networks were employed in this study to combine the historical drought information and dynamical prediction products in advance of drought outlook. Drought outlook was determined through a decision-making model considering the current drought condition and forecasted condition from the Bayesian networks. Drought outlook condition was classified by four states such as no drought, drought occurrence, drought persistence, and drought removal. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis were employed to measure the relative outlook performance with the dynamical prediction production, Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). The ROC analysis indicated that the proposed outlook model showed better performance than the MME, especially for drought occurrence and persistence of 2- and 3-month outlook.

• The Korean Journal of Pain
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.275-283
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• 2020

Background: Previous studies showed neurography and tractography of the greater occipital nerve (GON). The purpose of this study was determining diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) parameters of bilateral GONs and dorsal root ganglia (DRG) in unilateral cervicogenic headache as well as the grading value of DTI for severe headache. The correlation between DTI parameters and clinical characteristics was evaluated. Methods: The fractional anisotropy (FA) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in bilateral GONs and cervical DRG (C2 and C3) were measured. Grading values for headache severity was calculated using a receiver operating characteristics curve. The correlation was analyzed with Pearson's coefficient. Results: The FA values of the symptomatic side of GON and cervical DRG (C2 and C3) were significantly lower than that of the asymptomatic side (all the P < 0.001), while the ADC values were significantly higher (P = 0.003, P < 0.001, and P = 0.003, respectively). The FA value of 0.205 in C2 DRG was considered the grading parameter for headache severity with sensitivity of 0.743 and specificity of 0.999 (P < 0.001). A negative correlation and a positive correlation between the FA and ADC value of the GON and headache index (HI; r = -0.420, P = 0.037 and r = 0.531, P = 0.006, respectively) was found. Conclusions: DTI parameters in the symptomatic side of the C2 and C3 DRG and GON were significantly changed. The FA value of the C2 DRG can grade headache severity. DTI parameters of the GON significantly correlated with HI.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.106-117
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R²) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R² was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R² was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.664-673
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• 2022

Objective: To evaluate the performance of baseline clinical characteristics and pretherapeutic histogram parameters derived from T2 mapping of the extraocular muscles (EOMs) in the prediction of treatment response to intravenous glucocorticoid (IVGC) therapy for active and moderate-to-severe thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO) and to investigate the effect of fat-suppression (FS) in T2 mapping in this prediction. Materials and Methods: A total of 79 patients clinically diagnosed with active, moderate-to-severe TAO (47 female, 32 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 46.1 ± 10 years), including 43 patients with a total of 86 orbits in the responsive group and 36 patients with a total of 72 orbits in the unresponsive group, were enrolled. Baseline clinical characteristics and pretherapeutic histogram parameters derived from T2 mapping with FS (i.e., FS T2 mapping) or without FS (i.e., conventional T2 mapping) of EOMs were compared between the two groups. Independent predictors of treatment response to IVGC were identified using multivariable analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive performance of the prediction models. Differences between the models were examined using the DeLong test. Results: Compared to the unresponsive group, the responsive group had a shorter disease duration, lower kurtosis (FS-kurtosis), lower standard deviation, larger 75th, 90th, and 95th (FS-95th) T2 relaxation times in FS mapping and lower kurtosis in conventional T2 mapping. Multivariable analysis revealed that disease duration, FS-95th percentile, and FS-kurtosis were independent predictors of treatment response. The combined model, integrating all identified predictors, had an optimized area under the ROC curve of 0.797, 88.4% sensitivity, and 62.5% specificity, which were significantly superior to those of the imaging model (p = 0.013). Conclusion: An integrated combination of disease duration, FS-95th percentile, and FS-kurtosis was a potential predictor of treatment response to IVGC in patients with active and moderate-to-severe TAO. FS T2 mapping was superior to conventional T2 mapping in terms of prediction.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.505-509
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• 2012

Background: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) are proteolytic enzymes that are essentially involved in turnover of the extracellular matrix (ECM). The aim was to investigate the diagnostic value of MMP-7 and MMP-10 as tumor markers in pleural effusion (PE) and evaluate the value of combining MMP-7, MMP-10 and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) assays as diagnostic aids for malignant cells. Materials and Methods: A total of 179 patients with PE (87 malignant and 92 benign) were included in this study. The levels of MMP-7 and MMP-10 were measured using ELISA. Results: Values for MMP-7 and MMP-10 were significantly higher in malignant PE than those in benign PE (P<0.01). Among all variables evaluated, logistic regression found that MMP-7 and MMP-10 were significantly correlated with the presence of malignant disease (P<0.01). Analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves showed that the area under the curve of MMP-10 (0.806) was significantly larger than that of MMP-7 (0.771) and CEA (0.789) (P<0.01). With parallel interpretation, the combination of MMP-10 and CEA achieved the higher sensitivity of 94.6%. The combination of MMP-7 and CEA in serial interpretation was able to boost the specificity to 95.7%. The combination of MMP-7, MMP-10 and CEA produced better sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV than MMP-7 and MMP-10 alone. Conclusion: MMP-7 and MMP-10 in PE may represent helpful adjuncts to conventional diagnostic tools in ruling out malignancy as a probable diagnosis, thus guiding the selection of patients who might benefit from further invasive procedures.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.1481-1488
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• 2014

Background: To avoid performing axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for non-sentinel lymph node (SLN)-negative patients with-SLN positive axilla, nomograms for predicting the status have been developed in many centers. We created a new nomogram predicting non-SLN metastasis in SLN-positive patients with invasive breast cancer and evaluated 14 existing breast cancer models in our patient group. Materials and Methods: Two hundred and thirty seven invasive breast cancer patients with SLN metastases who underwent ALND were included in the study. Based on independent predictive factors for non-SLN metastasis identified by logistic regression analysis, we developed a new nomogram. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the models were created and the areas under the curves (AUC) were computed. Results: In a multivariate analysis, tumor size, presence of lymphovascular invasion, extranodal extension of SLN, large size of metastatic SLN, the number of negative SLNs, and multifocality were found to be independent predictive factors for non-SLN metastasis. The AUC was found to be 0.87, and calibration was good for the present Ondokuz Mayis nomogram. Among the 14 validated models, the MSKCC, Stanford, Turkish, MD Anderson, MOU (Masaryk), Ljubljana, and DEU models yielded excellent AUC values of > 0.80. Conclusions: We present a new model to predict the likelihood of non-SLN metastasis. Each clinic should determine and use the most suitable nomogram or should create their own nomograms for the prediction of non- SLN metastasis.