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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.11.769

Bayesian networks-based probabilistic forecasting of hydrological drought considering drought propagation  

Shin, Ji Yae (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Lee, Joo-Heon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University (ERICA))
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.50, no.11, 2017 , pp. 769-779 More about this Journal
Abstract
As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.
Keywords
Bayesian networks; Drought propagation; Hydrological drought; Probabilistic forecasting;
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