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Knowledge-Based Model for Forecasting Percentage Progress Costs

  • Kim, Sang-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.518-527
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    • 2012
  • This study uses a hybrid estimation tool for effective cost data management of building projects, and develops a realistic cost estimation model. The method makes use of newly available information as the project progresses, and project cost and percentage progress are analyzed and used as inputs for the developed system. For model development, case-based reasoning (CBR) is proposed, as it enables complex nonlinear mapping. This study also investigates analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for weight generation and applies them to a real project case. Real case studies are used to demonstrate and validate the benefits of the proposed approach. By using this method, an evaluation of actual project performance can be developed that appropriately considers the natural variability of construction costs.

Comparison of Alternative knowledge Acquisition Methods for Allergic Rhinitis

  • Chae, Young-Moon;Chung, Seung-Kyu;Suh, Jae-Gwon;Ho, Seung-Hee;Park, In-Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.91-109
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    • 1995
  • This paper compared four knowledge acquisition methods (namely, neural network, case-based reasoning, discriminant analysis, and covariance structure modeling) for allergic rhinitis. The data were collected from 444 patients with suspected allergic rhinitis who visited the Otorlaryngology Deduring 1991-1993. Among four knowledge acquisition methods, the discriminant model had the best overall diagnostic capability (78%) and the neural network had slightly lower rate(76%). This may be explained by the fact that neural network is essentially non-linear discriminant model. The discriminant model was also most accurate in predicting allergic rhinitis (88%). On the other hand, the CSM had the lowest overall accuracy rate (44%) perhaps due to smaller input data set. However, it was most accuate in predicting non-allergic rhinitis (82%).

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A CONSTRUCTION PROCESS IMPROVEMENT MODEL USING CONSTRUCTION FAILURE INFORMATION

  • Yongseok Jeon;Chansik Park
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.1065-1069
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    • 2005
  • The construction failures can be decreased through continuous improvement of construction process based upon the information of construction failures. Herein, the information of construction failures can be utilized as the key factor for identifying and enhancing various ineffective construction processes that can prevent failures. This research proposes a process model for the continuous improvement of construction processes by using construction failure information. Extensive reviews and analyses of literatures related to construction failures are performed to investigate its definition, type, cause, and lessons learned. This research adapts process modeling methodology and case-based reasoning for the development of the proposed CIMCP(continuous improvement model of construction process), and then suggests its framework that contains modules of case retrieval, case index, and case adaptation.

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Effects of a Nursing Simulation Learning Module on Clinical Reasoning Competence, Clinical Competence, Performance Confidence, and Anxiety in COVID-19 Patient-Care for Nursing Students (코로나19 간호시뮬레이션 학습모듈이 간호대학생의 임상추론역량, 임상수행능력, 간호수행자신감 및 불안에 미치는 효과)

  • Kim, Ye-Eun;Kang, Hee-Young
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aimed to develop a nursing simulation learning module for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient-care and examine its effects on clinical reasoning competence, clinical competence, performance confidence, and anxiety in COVID-19 patient care for nursing students. Methods: A non-equivalent control group pre- and post-test design was employed. The study participants included 47 nursing students (23 in the experimental group and 24 in the control group) from G City. A simulation learning module for COVID-19 patient-care was developed based on the Jeffries simulation model. The module consisted of a briefing, simulation practice, and debriefing. The effects of the simulation module were measured using clinical reasoning competence, clinical competence, performance confidence, and anxiety in COVID-19 patient-care. Data were analyzed using χ2-test, Fisher's exact test, t-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test, and Mann-Whitney U test. Results: The levels of clinical reasoning competence, clinical competence, and performance confidence of the experimental group were significantly higher than that of the control group, and the level of anxiety was significantly low after simulation learning. Conclusion: The nursing simulation learning module for COVID-19 patient-care is more effective than the traditional method in terms of improving students' clinical reasoning competence, clinical competence, and performance confidence, and reducing their anxiety. The module is expected to be useful for educational and clinical environments as an effective teaching and learning strategy to empower nursing competency and contribute to nursing education and clinical changes.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

The Modeling of Chaotic Nonlinear System Using Wavelet Based Fuzzy Neural Network

  • Oh, Joon-Seop;You, Sung-Jin;Park, Jin-Bae;Choi, Yoon-Ho
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.635-639
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we present a novel approach for the structure of Fuzzy Neural Network(FNN) based on wavelet function and apply this network structure to the modeling of chaotic nonlinear systems. Generally, the wavelet fuzzy model(WFM) has the advantage of the wavelet transform by constituting the fuzzy basis function(FBF) and the conclusion part to equalize the linear combination of FBF with the linear combination of wavelet functions. However, it is very difficult to identify the fuzzy rules and to tune the membership functions of the fuzzy reasoning mechanism. Neural networks, on the other hand, utilize their learning capability for automatic identification and tuning. Therefore, we design a wavelet based FNN structure(WFNN) that merges these advantages of neural network, fuzzy model and wavelet transform. The basic idea of our wavelet based FNN is to realize the process of fuzzy reasoning of wavelet fuzzy system by the structure of a neural network and to make the parameters of fuzzy reasoning be expressed by the connection weights of a neural network. And our network can automatically identify the fuzzy rules by modifying the connection weights of the networks via the gradient descent scheme. To verify the efficiency of our network structure, we evaluate the modeling performance for chaotic nonlinear systems and compare it with those of the FNN and the WFM.

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Path Tracking Control Using a Wavelet Based Fuzzy Neural Network for Mobile Robots

  • Oh, Joon-Seop;Park, Yoon-Ho
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we present a novel approach for the structure of Fuzzy Neural Network(FNN) based on wavelet function and apply this network structure to the solution of the tracking problem for mobile robots. Generally, the wavelet fuzzy model(WFM) has the advantage of the wavelet transform by constituting the fuzzy basis function(FBF) and the conclusion part to equalize the linear combination of FBF with the linear combination of wavelet functions. However, it is very difficult to identify the fuzzy rules and to tune the membership functions of the fuzzy reasoning mechanism. Neural networks, on the other hand, utilize their learning capability for automatic identification and tuning. Therefore, we design a wavelet based FNN structure(WFNN) that merges these advantages of neural network, fuzzy model and wavelet transform. The basic idea of our wavelet based FNN is to realize the process of fuzzy reasoning of wavelet fuzzy system by the structure of a neural network and to make the parameters of fuzzy reasoning be expressed by the connection weights of a neural network. And our network can automatically identify the fuzzy rules by modifying the connection weights of the networks via the gradient descent scheme. To verify the efficiency of our network structure, we evaluate the tracking performance for mobile robot and compare it with those of the FNN and the WFM.

Knowledge Reasoning Model using Association Rules and Clustering Analysis of Multi-Context (다중상황의 군집분석과 연관규칙을 이용한 지식추론 모델)

  • Shin, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Min-Jeong;Oh, SangYeob;Chung, Kyungyong
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2019
  • People are subject to time sanctions in a busy modern society. Therefore, people find it difficult to eat simple junk food and even exercise, which is bad for their health. As a result, the incidence of chronic diseases is increasing. Also, the importance of making accurate and appropriate inferences to individual characteristics is growing due to unnecessary information overload phenomenon. In this paper, we propose a knowledge reasoning model using association rules and cluster analysis of multi-contexts. The proposed method provides a personalized healthcare to users by generating association rules based on the clusters based on multi-context information. This can reduce the incidence of each disease by inferring the risk for each disease. In addition, the model proposed by the performance assessment shows that the F-measure value is 0.027 higher than the comparison model, and is highly regarded than the comparison model.

ESTIMATING COSTS DURING THE INITIAL STAGE OF CONCEPTUAL PLANNING FOR PUBLIC ROAD PROJECTS: CASE-BASED REASONING APPROACH

  • Seokjin Choi;Donghoon Yeo;Seung H. Han
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1183-1188
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    • 2009
  • Estimating project costs during the early stage of conceptual planning is very important when deciding whether to approve the project and allocate an appropriate budget. However, due to greater uncertainties involved in a project, it is challenging to estimate costs during this initial stage within a reasonable tolerance. This paper attempts to develop a cost-estimate model for public road projects under these circumstances and limitations. In the conceptual planning stage of a road project, there is only limited information for cost estimation, for example, such input data as total length of the route, origin and destination, number of lanes, general geographic characteristics of the route, and other basic attributes. This implies that the model should individuate suitable but restricted information without considering detailed features such as quantity of earthwork and a detailed route of a given condition. With these limited facts, this paper applies a case-based reasoning (CBR) method to solve a new problem by deriving similar past problems, which in turn is used to estimate the cost of a given project based on best-fitted previous cases. To develop a CBR cost-estimate model, the authors classified 8 representative variables, including project type, the number of lanes, total length, road design grades, etc. Then, we developed the CBR model, primarily by using 180 actual cases of public road projects, procured over the last decade. With the CBR model, it was found that the degree of error in estimation can be reasonably reduced, to below approximately 30% compared to the final costs estimated upon the completion of detailed design.

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Financial Forecasting System using Data Editing Technique and Case-based Reasoning (자료편집기법과 사례기반추론을 이용한 재무예측시스템)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.283-286
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    • 2007
  • This paper proposes a genetic algorithm (GA) approach to instance selection in case-based reasoning (CBR) for the prediction of Korea Stock Price Index (KOSPI). CBR has been widely used in various areas because of its convenience and strength in complex problem solving. Nonetheless, compared to other machine learning techniques, CBR has been criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. Generally, in order to obtain successful results from CBR, effective retrieval of useful prior cases for the given problem is essential. However, designing a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems is still a controversial research issue. In this paper, the GA optimizes simultaneously feature weights and a selection task for relevant instances for achieving good matching and retrieval in a CBR system. This study applies the proposed model to stock market analysis. Experimental results show that the GA approach is a promising method for instance selection in CBR.

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