• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.1-32
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• 2010

The global financial crisis has exerted enormous impacts on the attainment of inflation target in Korea. The annual average CPI inflation was 3.3% during the targeting period of 2007-2009 and the target was $3.0{\pm}0.5%$. Thus Korea has succeeded in keeping annual average CPI inflation just below the upper limit of the 2007-2009 target under the global crisis. This paper intends to evaluate the performance of the inflation targeting system in Korea. First, it estimates the conventional call rate reaction equation under the global crisis and finds that the policy interest rates never reacted to expected inflation, output gap, and won/dollar exchange rate, as expected by theory. Second, it identifies the shock of global financial crisis into core and non-core, applying the structural VAR model. The core shock was defined to have no (medium- to) long-run impact on real output. The core shock was identified to have the character of the demand shock, since it has the positive impact on the inflation and output in the short run. The structural core inflation due to core shock was an attractor of headline inflation, not vice versa. Therefore, the structural core inflation that reflects the demand-side shock would be the better intermediate target for the final headline inflation target than the official core inflation that excludes the volatile inflation of agricultural and oil-related products. During the inflation targeting period of 2007-2009, the structural core inflation was more volatile than the official core inflation, because the global crisis has very large negative impacts on the domestic demand as well as the prices of agricultural and oil-related products. This paper shows that the negative core shock during the fourth quarter of 2008 was larger than that in the financial crisis in 1998. But the core shock turned into positive very quickly in 2009, as the Korean economy recovered very quickly from crisis. The volatile changes in structural core inflation suggests that the Bank of Korea barely managed to attain the 2007-2009 inflation target, owing to the very large negative impacts of the global financial crisis on the domestic demand. It also suggests that the rapid rise in core inflation with the rapid recovery of the Korean economy will lead to rapid rise in headline inflation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.65-82
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• 2021

Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.115-134
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• 1991

The role of pension plans in the macroeconomy has been a subject of much interest for some years. It has come to be recognized that pension plans may alter basic macroeconomic behavior patterns. The net effects on both savings and labor supply are thus matters for speculation. The aim of the present paper is to provide quantitative results which may be helpful in attaching orders of magnitude to some of the possible effects. We are not concerned with the providing empirical evidence relating to actual behavior, but rather with deriving the macroeconomic implications for a alternative possibilities. The pension plan interacts with the economy and the population in a number of ways. Demographic variables may thus affect both the economic burden of a national pension plan and the ability of the economy to sustain the burden. The tax transfer process associated with the pension plan may have implications for national patterns of saving and consumption. The existence of a pension plan may have implications also for the size of the labor force, inasmuch as labor force participation rates may be affected. Changes in technology and the associated changes in average productivity levels bear directly on the size of the national income, and hence on the pension contribution base. The vehicle for the analysis is a hypothetical but broadly realistic simulation model of an economic- demographic system into which is inserted a national pension plan. All income, expenditure, and related aggregates are in real terms. The economy is basically neoclassical; full employment is assumed, output is generated by a Cobb-Douglas production process, and factors receive their marginal products. The model was designed for use in computer simulation experiments. The simulation results suggest a number of general conclusions. These may be summarized as follows; - The introduction of a national pension plan (funded system) tends to increase the rate of economic growth until cost exceeds revenue. - A scheme with full wage indexing is more expensive than one in which pensions are merely price indexed. - The rate of technical progress is not a critical element in determining the economic burden of the pension scheme. - Raising the rate of benefits affects its economic burden, and raising the age of eligibility may decrease the burden substantially. - The level of fertility is an element in determining the long-run burden. A sustained low fertility rate increases the proportion of the aged in total population and increases the burden of the pension plan. High fertility has inverse effects.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.1123-1129
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• 2015

Macro(automatic hunting) of mobile game is a program that touch the screen by defined rules like a game bot in PC online games, and it is used by make various ways like android application or windows application program. This gives honest users deprivation and make to lose their interest. Finally they would leave the game and gradually game life would be shorten. Although many studies to prevent these problems in PC online game are conducted, applying mobile game to PC's way is difficult because mobile games are limited to use the network and device performance is different with PC. In this paper, we propose a framework for macro detection by using the touch event information. A touch event on the mobile game is a necessary control command to the game. Because macro touches the screen with the same pattern, there is a difference between normal user's behavior and macro's operation. In mobile games that casual games are mostly, Touch event is the best difference that identify normal user against macro for a short period of time. As a result of detecting macros used in real mobile game by using the proposed framework it showed 100% accuracy and 0% false positive rate.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.28-38
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• 2016

Cooperative-Intelligent Transport Systems (c-ITS) has emphasized a real-time traffic safety service in urgent situations among highway infrastructure and four-wheeled vehicles, while two-wheeled vehicles, e.g. bicycles and motorcycle, sharing highway space and endangering highway safety, have yet been out of its interest. This paper delivers the results of a study conducted to analyze the patterns of two-wheeled-vehicle traffic accidents experienced in the past, the last three years (2011~2013), and to propose the types of service enhancing the safety of the riders of those. It was found from the analysis of historical accident data that the side collision on a link section should be taken care of for further safety treatment, while the old female drivers need additional care to decrease their fatality rate. By combining the services proposed for bicycles and motorcycles, this paper proposes (1) eight different bicycle-to-everything (B2X) services which can be eventually provided in c-ITS and (2) three of those that would be available in the near future with the current communication technologies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.673-692
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• 2006

In order to test for the dynamic optimality condition for the use of nonrenewable resource, it is necessary to estimate the shadow value of the resource in situ. In the previous literatures, a time series for in situ price has been derived either as the difference between marginal revenue and marginal cost or by differentiating with respect to the quantity of ore extracted the restricted cost function in which the quantity of ore is quasi-fixed. However, not only inconsistent estimates are likely to be generated due to the nonmalleability of capital, but the estimate of marginal revenue will be affected by market power. Since firms will likely fail to minimize the cost of the reproducible inputs subject to market prices under realistic circumstances where imperfect factor markets, strikes, or government regulations are present, the shadow in situ values obtained by estimating the restricted cost function can be biased. This paper provides a valid methodology for checking the dynamic optimality condition for a nonrenewable resource by using the input distance function. Our methodology has some advantages over previous ones: only data on quantities of inputs and outputs are required; nor is the maintained hypothesis of cost minimization required; adoption of linear programming enables us to circumvent autocorrelated errors problem caused by use of time series or panel data. The dynamic optimality condition for domestic coal mining does not hold for constant discount rates ranging from 2 to 20 percent over the period 1970~1993. The dynamic optimality condition also does not hold for variable rates ranging from fourth to four times the real interest rate.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.8
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• pp.703-711
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• 2018

Water distribution system (WDS) pipe bursts are caused from excessive pressure, pipe aging, and ground shift from temperature change and earthquake. Prompt detection of and response to the failure event help prevent large-scale service interruption and catastrophic sinkhole generation. To that end, this study proposes a improved Western Electric Company (WECO) method to improve the detection effectiveness and efficiency of the original WECO method. The original WECO method is an univariate Statistical Process Control (SPC) technique used for identifying any non-random patterns in system output data. The improved WECO method multiples a threshold modifier (w) to each threshold of WECO sub-rules in order to control the sensitivity of anomaly detection in a water distribution network of interest. The Austin network was used to demonstrated the proposed method in which normal random and abnormal pipe flow data were generated. The best w value was identified from a sensitivity analysis, and the impact of measurement frequency (dt = 5, 10, 15 min etc.) was also investigated. The proposed method was compared to the original WECO method with respect to detection probability, false alarm rate, and averaged detection time. Finally, this study provides a set of guidelines on the use of the WECO method for real-life WDS pipe burst detection.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2010

The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors were evaluated by applying the cost optimization to the rubble mound breakwaters in Korea. The applied method was developed by Hans F. Burcharth and John D. Sorensen in relation to the PIANC Working Group 47. The optimum return period was determined as 50 years in many cases and was found as 100 years in the case of high real interest rate. Target failure probability was suggested by using the probabilities of failure corresponding to the optimum return period and those of reliability analysis of existing structures. The final target failure probability is about 60% for the initial limit state of the national design standard and then the overall safety factor is calculated as 1.09. It is required that the nominal diameter and weight of armor are respectively 9% and 30% larger than those of the existing design method. Moreover, partial safety factors considering the cost optimization were compared with those calculated by Level 2 analysis and a fairly good agreement was found between the two methods especially the failure probability less than 40%.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.786-792
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• 2010

This paper presents a real-time lane detection method which can accurately find the lane-mark boundaries in complex road environment. Unlike many existing methods that pay much attention on the post-processing stage to fit lane-mark position among a great deal of outliers, the proposed method aims at removing those outliers as much as possible at feature extraction stage, so that the searching space at post-processing stage can be greatly reduced. To achieve this goal, a grid-based morphology operation is firstly used to generate the regions of interest (ROI) dynamically, in which a directional edge-linking algorithm with directional edge-gap closing is proposed to link edge-pixels into edge-links which lie in the valid directions, these directional edge-links are then grouped into pairs by checking the valid lane-mark width at certain height of the image. Finally, lane-mark colors are checked inside edge-link pairs in the YUV color space, and lane-mark types are estimated employing a Bayesian probability model. Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective in identifying lane-mark edges among heavy clutter edges in complex road environment, and the whole algorithm can achieve an accuracy rate around 92% at an average speed of 10ms/frame at the image size of $320{\times}240$.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.285-294
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• 2017

In this study, change of the view of love was analyzed by big data analysis in TV drama of married person's love. Two dramas were selected for analysis with opposite theme of love story. The sympathy of audience for the one month period from the end of the drama was analyzed by text mining and sentiment analysis. In particular, changes in the meaning of home meaning are identified. Home is not 'a place where a husband and wife play a social role', but 'a place where they can share real sympathy and one can be happy'. If individuals are not happy, they need to break their homes. In this study, the current divorce rate and the question regarding the matter should be considered. But based on Google Trends, in Korean society, interest in marriage were still higher than romance. It means that people prefer to 'a love to get marriage' in Korean modern society, than 'love for love affair'. It seems to be reflection of cognition change, marriage should be based on true love. This study is expected to be applied to the study of trend change through social media.