• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.111-121
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• 2014

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows New & Renewable Energy projects to make additional income by selling CER's, which represent the amount of Green House Gases(GHG) that is reduced in the project. However, forward contracts used to hedge fluctuating market prices does not allow projects to sell CER's at a premium. As an alternate approach to maximize CER revenue, CER's are modeled as a 'real option', in which CER's are sold only above the desired sales price. Using the Binomial Option Pricing model, the resultant lattices are used to determine whether to sell, defer or abandon the option at individual nodes. Overlaying Pascal's Triangle on the lattices also enabled the calculation of the annual probabilities for deferring CER sales without incurring downside losses. Application to an actual Landfill Gas project showed increased overall NPV, and that CER sales could be deferred at a maximum of 2 years. The proposed framework allows transparency in the analysis and provides valuable and strategical information when making investment decisions related to CER sales of CDM projects.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.617-643
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• 2019

The Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) is a buffer zone set between the southern and northern limit lines established after the 1953 Armistice Agreement. It is an important natural environment conservation area where wild species of animals and plants live. On the other hand, the development pressure on the DMZ will increase when the inter-Korean economic cooperation is activated in the future. As a result, DMZ development should consider not only the economic cost-benefit aspects, but also how to assess and conserve the biodiversity of the DMZ, as well as the recovery costs and budget. This paper develope a sustainable DMZ management model under biodiversity uncertainly by using real option approach. The model is also designed to reflect the political risk and regional specificity of the DMZ. Through empirical analysis, I derive the biodiversity threshold (b^*) that can secure the DMZ investment economy under uncertainty. In addition, through the sensitivity analysis, I derive the factors influencing the biodiversity threshold, and suggest the policy implications for sustainable management of DMZ.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.235-257
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• 2012

Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.219-246
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• 2020

From the Phase II (2018~2020) of K-ETS, the offset credit from 'CDM projects that domestic companies and others have carried out in foreign countries' can be used in the K-ETS. As a result, stakeholders in the K-ETS market are actively developing overseas CDM projects, such as the 'high-efficiency cook stove project'. which can secure a large amount of credits while marginal cost is relatively low. This paper develops the investment decision-making model of offset project for the 'high-efficiency cook stove project' using the real option approach. Under the uncertainty of the emission allowance price, the optimal investment threshold (p^⁎) is derived and sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, in the standard scenario (PoA-S), the optimal investment threshold is 29,054won/ton, which is lower than the stock price (p^⁎_spot). However, allocation entities are not only economics in the CDM project, but also CDM risk factors such as non-renewable biomass ratio, cook stove replacement ratio, equity ratio with host country, investment period and submission limitation of emission allowance. In addition, offset project developers will be able to derive the optimal investment threshold for each business stage and use it for economic feasibility checks.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.53-71
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• 2004

In this study, a mathematical model that shows the optimal payout policy is developed. The model is new and unique in the sense that not only continuous-time framework is used, but also both partial differential equation (PDE) and real-option approach are utilized in the derivation of optimal payouts for the first time. In the model building, non-linear demand curve for dividend payouts in the competitive capital markets is assumed. From the sensitivity analysis using traditional comparative static analysis, some useful managerial implications which are consistent with famous previous studies are derived under realistic conditions. All results in this study, however, are valid under the assumption that the opportunity costs follow geometric Brownian motion, which is widely used in economic science and finance literature.

• Journal of computational fluids engineering
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.69-76
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• 2013

To reduce the damage from the coastal disaster such as typhoon and tsunami, a possible option is the eco-friendly approach to minimize the destruction of ecological system. One of feasible idea is the forest for damage prevention artificially arranged along the beach. To understand a precise physics on the flow before and after the forest, we use a CFD method. In this paper, a three-dimensional numerical model has been constructed based on tree cases in a real forest located at Byin-myeon, Seocheon-gun, Chungnam. The CFD computation using a commercial code COMSOL multiphysics is performed for the distribution of real spatial coordinate of each tree. Through this investigation, the CFD techniques are shown to be applied to the research of forest composition plan. The physics in the regime from laminar to turbulent flow is qualitatively explained, and the obtained data are compared one another quantitatively.

• Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.403-412
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• 2016

As transaction and investment using technology are vitalized, the need for objective standards for the technology is increasing. Current technology value evaluation system is limited lacking reliability and objectivity. Besides the traditional evaluation methodology which are market approach, income approach and cost approach other diverse evaluation methodology such as real option method and royalty calculation method are being studied; however currently there are no dominant evaluation methodology in the market. Same value evaluation system cannot be applied between similar technologies because value of technology is relatively decided based on the target. Approaching through collective intelligence and crowd sourcing, in meaning of majority participant's decision can make objective and better result than handful of experts, suggest alternative to problems of such matter above. By grafting the four types of crowd sourcing model which are Wisdom, Voting, Funding and Creation, this paper will discuss the ways to enhance the objectivity of technology evaluation through direct evaluation utilizing expert group and the public's indirect evaluation.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.602-607
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• 2013

Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.1634-1647
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• 2007

"To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.