• 제목/요약/키워드: rcp

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APEX-Paddy 모델을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 논벼 생산량 및 증발산량 변화 예측 (Estimation of Crop Yield and Evapotranspiration in Paddy Rice with Climate Change Using APEX-Paddy Model)

  • 최순군;김민경;정재학;최동호;허승오
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제59권4호
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    • pp.27-42
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    • 2017
  • The global rise in atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and its associated climate change have significant effects on agricultural productivity and hydrological cycle. For food security and agricultural water resources planning, it is critical to investigate the impact of climate change on changes in agricultural productivity and water consumption. APEX-Paddy model, which is the modified version of APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystem, was used to evaluate rice productivity and evapotranspiration based on climate change scenario. Two study areas (Gimjae, Icheon) were selected and the input dataset was obtained from the literature. RCP (Representitive Concentration Pathways) based climate change scenarios were provided by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration). Rice yield data from 1997 to 2015 were used to validate APEX-Paddy model. The effects of climate change were evaluated at a 30-year interval, such as the 1990s (historical, 1976~2005), the 2025s (2011~2040), the 2055s (2041~2070), and the 2085s (2071~2100). Climate change scenarios showed that the overall evapotranspiration in the 2085s reduced from 10.5 % to 16.3 %. The evaporations were reduced from 15.6 % to 21.7 % due to shortend growth period, the transpirations were reduced from 0.0% to 24.2 % due to increased $CO_2$ concentration and shortend growth period. In case of rice yield, in the 2085s were reduced from 6.0% to 25.0 % compared with the ones in the 1990s. The findings of this study would play a significant role as the basics for evaluating the vulnerability of paddy rice productivity and water management plan against climate change.

기후변화에 따른 미래 극한호우사상이 소양강댐 유역의 유량 및 유사량에 미치는 영향 (Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Storm Events on Streamflow and Sediment in Soyang-dam Watershed)

  • 한정호;이동준;강부식;정세웅;장원석;임경재;김종건
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.160-169
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study are to analyze changes in future rainfall patterns in the Soyang-dam watershed according to the RCP 4.5 scenario of climate change. Second objective is to project peak flow and hourly sediment simulated for the future extreme rainfall events using the SWAT model. For these, accuracy of SWAT hourly simulation for the large scale watershed was evaluated in advance. The results of model calibration showed that simulated peak flow matched observation well with acceptable average relative error. The results of future rainfall pattern changes analysis indicated that extreme storm events will become more severe and frequent as climate change progresses. Especially, possibility of occurrence of large scale extreme storm events will be greater on the periods of 2030-2040 and 2050-2060. In addition, as shown in the SWAT hourly simulation for the future extreme storm events, more severe flood and turbid water can happen in the future compared with the most devastating storm event which occurred by the typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 year. Thus, countermeasures against future extreme storm event and turbid water are needed to cope with climate change.

대구와 제주의 폭염 및 열대야의 발생 특성 (The Occurrence Characteristic and Future Prospect of Extreme Heat and Tropical Night in Daegu and Jeju)

  • 김진아;김규랑;김백조
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제24권11호
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    • pp.1493-1500
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    • 2015
  • Observation data (1981-2014) and climate change scenario data (historical: 1981-2005; RCP 2.6 and 8.5: 2006-2100) were used to analyze occurrence and future outlook of the extreme heat days and tropical nights in Daegu and Jeju. Then we compared the mortality and observations data (1993-2013). During 1981-2014, the average of extreme heat days (tropical nights) was 24.41 days (12.47 days) in Daegu, and 6.5 days (22.14 days) in Jeju. Extreme heat days and tropical nights have been similarly increased in Daegu, but tropical nights increased more than extreme heat days in Jeju. Extreme heat days and tropical nights in both, Daegu and Jeju showed high correlation with daily mortality, specifically Daegu's correlation was higher than that of jeju. The yearly increasing rate of extreme heat of the future (2076-2100) was 1.7-3.6 times and 7.8-37.7 times higher than the past (1981-2005) in Daegu and Jeju, respectively. The yearly increase rate of tropical nights of future was 2.6-5.0 times and 2.9-5.6 times higher in Daegu and Jeju, respectively. During 2006-2100 periods, the trend of extreme heat days was observed both in Daegu and Jeju. On the average, extreme heat days and tropical nights in Jeju increased more than that of Daegu. However, the trend of extreme heat days increase in Daegu was higher than that in Jeju, whereas, the trend of tropical nights in Jeju was higher than that in Daegu.

Photochemical Property and Photodynamic Activity of Tetrakis(2-naphthyl) Porphyrin Phosphorus(V) Complex

  • Hirakawa, Kazutaka;Aoki, Shunsuke;Ueda, Hiroyuki;Ouyang, Dongyan;Okazaki, Shigetoshi
    • Rapid Communication in Photoscience
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.37-40
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    • 2015
  • To examine the photosensitized biomolecules damaging activity, dimethoxyP(V)tetrakis(2-naphthyl)porphyrin (NP) and dimethoxyP(V)tetraphenylporphyrin (PP) were synthesized. The naphthyl moiety of NP hardly deactivated the photoexcited P(V)porphyrin ring in ethanol. In aqueous solution, the naphthyl moiety showed the quenching effect on the photoexcited porphyrin ring, possibly through electron transfer and self-quenching by a molecular association. Binding interaction between human serum albumin (HSA), a water soluble protein, and these porphyrins could be confirmed by the absorption spectral change. The apparent association constant of NP was larger than that of PP. It is explained by that more hydrophobic NP can easily bind into the hydrophobic pockets of HSA. The photoexcited PP effectively induced damage of the tryptophan residue of HSA, through electron transfer-mediated oxidation and singlet oxygen generation. NP also induced HSA damage during photo-irradiation and the contributions of the electron transfer and singlet oxygen mechanisms were speculated. The electron transfer-mediated mechanism to the photosensitized protein damage should be advantageous for photodynamic therapy in hypoxic condition. The quantum yield of the HSA photodamage by PP was significantly larger than that of NP. The quenching effect of the naphthyl moiety is considered to suppress the photosensitized protein damage. In conclusion, the naphthalene substitution to the P(V)porphyrins can enhance the binding interaction with hydrophobic biomacromolecules such as protein, however, this substitution may reduce the photodynamic effect of P(V)porphyrin ring in aqueous media.

Photocatalytic Systems of Pt Nanoparticles and Molecular Co Complexes for NADH Regeneration and Enzyme-coupled CO2 Conversion

  • Kim, Ellen;Jeon, Minkyung;Kim, Soojin;Yadav, Paras Nath;Jeong, Kwang-Duk;Kim, Jinheung
    • Rapid Communication in Photoscience
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.42-45
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    • 2013
  • Natural photosynthesis utilizes solar energy to convert carbon dioxide and water to energy-rich carbohydrates. Substantial use of sunlight to meet world energy demands requires energy storage in useful fuels via chemical bonds because sunlight is intermittent. Artificial photosynthesis research focuses the fundamental natural process to design solar energy conversion systems. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide ($NAD^+$) and $NADP^+$ are ubiquitous as electron transporters in biological systems. Enzymatic, chemical, and electrochemical methods have been reported for NADH regeneration. As photochemical systems, visible light-driven catalytic activity of NADH regeneration was carried out using platinum nanoparticles, molecular rhodium and cobalt complexes in the presence of triethanolamine as a sacrificial electron donor. Pt nanoparticles showed photochemical NADH regeneration activity without additional visible light collector molecules, demonstrating that both photoactivating and catalytic activities exist together in Pt nanoparticles. The NADH regeneration of the Pt nanoparticle system was not interfered with the reduction of $O_2$. Molecular cobalt complexes containing dimethylglyoxime ligands also transfer their hydrides to $NAD^+$ with photoactivation of eosin Y in the presence of TEOA. In this photocatalytic reaction, the $NAD^+$ reduction process competed with a proton reduction.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF TMI-2 ACCIDENT SCENARIO USING SIMULATION BASED TECHNIQUES

  • Rao, R. Srinivasa;Kumar, Abhay;Gupta, S.K.;Lele, H.G.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제44권7호
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    • pp.807-816
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    • 2012
  • The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident has been studied extensively, as part of both post-accident technical assessment and follow-up computer code calculations. The models used in computer codes for severe accidents have improved significantly over the years due to better understanding. It was decided to reanalyze the severe accident scenario using current state of the art codes and methodologies. This reanalysis was adopted as a part of the joint standard problem exercise for the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) - United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC) bilateral safety meet. The accident scenario was divided into four phases for analysis viz., Phase 1 covers from the accident initiation to the shutdown of the last Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCPs) (0 to 100 min), Phase 2 covers initial fuel heat up and core degradation (100 to 174 min), Phase 3 is the period of recovery of the core water level by operating the reactor coolant pump, and the core reheat that followed (174 to 200 min) and Phase 4 covers refilling of the core by high pressure injection (200 to 300 min). The base case analysis was carried out for all four phases. The majority of the predicted parameters are in good agreement with the observed data. However, some parameters have significant deviations compared to the observed data. These discrepancies have arisen from uncertainties in boundary conditions, such as makeup flow, flow during the RCP 2B transient (Phase 3), models used in the code, the adopted nodalisation schemes, etc. In view of this, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using simulation based techniques. The paper deals with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses carried out for the first three phases of the accident scenario.

기후변화를 고려한 잣나무의 미래 적지적수 변화 예측 (Anticipation of the Future Suitable Cultivation Areas for Korean Pines in Korean Peninsula with Climate Change)

  • 최재용;이상훈;이상혁
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2015
  • Korean pines(Pinus koraiensis) are one of the major plantation species in the Republic of Korea and their natural habitats range from Japan and China to Siberia. The seed of Korean pines, pine nuts, are well know for good food reserves. Due to the global changes which drive the Korean peninsula into the semi-tropical climate, current plantations and natural habitats of Korean pines are faced with the change in the environmental conditions to some extent. To anticipate suitable sites for Korean pines in the future, the location of Korean pines were extracted from the 'Map of suitable trees on a site' that provides the map of suitable trees on a site considering tree species for timber and special uses, and then MaxEnt modelling was used for generating a prediction map on the basis of statistical analysis. As a result, the order of predicted suitable sites were Kangwon-do, Kyungsangbuk-do and Chungcheongbuk-do provinces and sites with high elevation within those provinces were considered most suitable in common. The prediction map of suitable sites for Korean pines presented that suitable sites in the future decreased by 72.2% by 2050's and almost disappeared with a decrease of 92.1% by 2070's on a nationwide scale. In relation to the major production regions of pine nuts in South Korea - Gapyung gun and Yangpyung gun, Kyunggi province and Hongcheon gun, Kangwon province, suitable sites within their areas were predicted to increase by 2050's but become extinct in South Korea by 2070's. To establish a long-term countermeasures against the improvement on forest productivity quality in terms of managing national food security, the result from this study can be considered as a firm basis of predicting plantation suitability. Also, it can be used to predict the changes in supply of forest products and thereby market values in accordance with climate change scenarios.

토지이용 변화를 고려한 제주도 권역별 미래 농업용수 수요량 추정 (Estimation of Regional Future Agricultural Water Demand in Jeju Island Considering Land Use Change)

  • 송성호;명우호;안중기;장중석;백진희;정차연
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.92-105
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the projected land use area in 2030 for major crop production was estimated in Jeju Island using land cover map, and corresponding agricultural water demand for 40 sub-regions was quantitatively assessed using the future climate change scenario (RCP 4.5). Estimated basic unit of water demand in 2030 was the highest in the western region, and the lowest in the eastern region. Monthly maximum agricultural water demand analysis revealed that water demand in August of 2030 substantially increased, suggesting the climate of Jeju Island is changing to a subtropical climate in 2030. Agricultural water demand for sub-region in 2030 was calculated by multiplying the target area of the water supply excluding the area not in use in winter season by the basic unit of water demand, and the maximum and minimum values were estimated to be $306,626m^3/day$ at Seogwipo downtown region and $77,967m^3/day$ at Hallim region, respectively. Consequently, total agricultural water demand in Jeju Island in 2030 was estimated to be $1,848,010m^3/day$.

MgO/Al2O3가 소결조제로 첨가된 Si3N4 세라믹스의 수열 조건에서의 부식열화 거동 (Corrosive Degradation of MgO/Al2O3-Added Si3N4 Ceramics under a Hydrothermal Condition)

  • 김원주;강석민;박지연
    • 한국재료학회지
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    • 제17권7호
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    • pp.366-370
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    • 2007
  • Silicon nitride ($Si_3N_4$) ceramics have been considered for various components of nuclear power plants such as the mechanical seal of a reactor coolant pump (RCP), the guide roller for a control rod drive mechanism (CRDM), and a seal support, etc. Corrosion behavior of $Si_3N_4$ ceramics in a high-temperature and high-pressure water must be elucidated before they can be considered as components for nuclear power plants. In this study, the corrosion behaviors of $Si_3N_4$ ceramics containing MgO and $Al_2O_3$ as sintering aids were investigated at a hydrothermal condition ($300^{\circ}C$, 9.0 MPa) in pure water and 35 ppm LiOH solution. The corrosion reactions were controlled by a diffusion of the reactive species and/or products through the corroded layer. The grain-boundary phase was preferentially corroded in pure water whereas the $Si_3N_4$ grain seemed to be corroded at a similar rate to the grain-boundary phase in LiOH solution. Flexural strengths of the $Si_3N_4$ ceramics were significantly degraded due to the corrosion reaction. Results of this study imply that a variation of the sintering aids and/or a control (e.g., crystallization) of the grain-boundary phase are necessary to increase the corrosion resistance of $Si_3N_4$ ceramics in a high-temperature water.

Temperature determines post-harvest quality of spinach leaves after gamma irradiation

  • Kim, Jin-Hong;Kim, Ji Hong;Lee, Min Hee;Kim, Jin Kyu;Chung, Byung Yeoup
    • Rapid Communication in Photoscience
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.25-27
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    • 2014
  • The relative importance of radiation dose, storage time, and temperature in radiation processing of spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.), was evaluated in terms of the postharvest quality through a model study using leaf disks. Physiological activity and chlorophyll and carotenoid contents were measured to represent the postharvest quality (in terms of external appearance) of spinach, a leafy green vegetable. At $22^{\circ}C$ and $30^{\circ}C$, the higher gamma-radiation dose caused a greater decrease in the physiological activity, depending on the storage time of 4 d. However, this decrease was not significant at $4^{\circ}C$ and $15^{\circ}C$. Total chlorophyll and carotenoid contents were substantially decreased by 3 kGy at $15^{\circ}C$, and dose-dependently by 0.5-3 kGy at $22^{\circ}C$. In contrast, the proportion of lutein in total carotenoid was significantly increased in the 2-3-kGy samples only at $22^{\circ}C$, while that of ${\beta}$-carotene was slightly decreased, indicating progression of leaf aging. These data suggest that the unfavorable effect of gamma irradiation on the postharvest quality of spinach could be avoided or controlled by the storage time or temperature rather than the radiation dose. The current study could be available to improve radiation processing of other leafy green vegetables.