• Title/Summary/Keyword: rare events

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A New Quantification Method for Multi-Unit Probabilistic Safety Assessment (다수기 PSA 수행을 위한 새로운 정량화 방법)

  • Park, Seong Kyu;Jung, Woo Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this paper is to suggest a new quantification method for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) that removes the overestimation error caused by the existing delete-term approximation (DTA) based quantification method. So far, for the actual plant PSA model quantification, a fault tree with negates have been solved by the DTA method. It is well known that the DTA method induces overestimated core damage frequency (CDF) of nuclear power plant (NPP). If a PSA fault tree has negates and non-rare events, the overestimation in CDF drastically increases. Since multi-unit seismic PSA model has plant level negates and many non-rare events in the fault tree, it should be very carefully quantified in order to avoid CDF overestimation. Multi-unit PSA fault tree has normal gates and negates that represent each NPP status. The NPP status means core damage or non-core damage state of individual NPPs. The non-core damage state of a NPP is modeled in the fault tree by using a negate (a NOT gate). Authors reviewed and compared (1) quantification methods that generate exact or approximate Boolean solutions from a fault tree, (2) DTA method generating approximate Boolean solution by solving negates in a fault tree, and (3) probability calculation methods from the Boolean solutions generated by exact quantification methods or DTA method. Based on the review and comparison, a new intersection removal by probability (IRBP) method is suggested in this study for the multi-unit PSA. If the IRBP method is adopted, multi-unit PSA fault tree can be quantified without the overestimation error that is caused by the direct application of DTA method. That is, the extremely overestimated CDF can be avoided and accurate CDF can be calculated by using the IRBP method. The accuracy of the IRBP method was validated by simple multi-unit PSA models. The necessity of the IRBP method was demonstrated by the actual plant multi-unit seismic PSA models.

Applying Randomization Tests to Collocation Analyses in Large Corpora (언어의 공기관계 분석을 위한 임의화검증의 응용)

  • Yang Kyung-Sook;Kim HeeYoung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.583-595
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    • 2005
  • Contingency tables are used to compare counts of n-grams to determine if the n-gram is a true collocation, meaning that the words that make up the n-gram are highly associated in the text. Some statistical methods for identifying collocation are used. They are Kulczinsky coefficient, Ochiai coefficient, Frager and McGowan coefficient, Yule coefficient, mutual information, and chi-square, and so on. But the main problem is that these measures are based ell the assumption of a nor-mal or approximately normal distribution of the variables being sampled. While this assumption is valid in most instances, it is not valid when comparing the rates of occurrence of rare events, and texts are composed mostly of rare events. In this paper we have simply reviewed some statistics about testing association of two words. Some randomization tests to evaluate the significance level in analyzing collocation in large corpora are proposed. A related graph can be used to compare different lest statistics that ran be used to analyze the same contingency table.

COVID-19 Vaccination-Related Myocarditis: What We Learned From Our Experience and What We Need to Do in The Future

  • Jae-Hyeong Park;Kye Hun Kim
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.295-310
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    • 2024
  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has led to a global health crisis with substantial mortality and morbidity. To combat the COVID-19 pandemic, various vaccines have been developed, but unexpected serious adverse events including vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia, carditis, and thromboembolic events have been reported and became a huddle for COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccine-related myocarditis (VRM) is a rare but significant adverse event associated primarily with mRNA vaccines. This review explores the incidence, risk factors, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, management strategies, and outcomes associated with VRM. The incidence of VRM is notably higher in male adolescents and young adults, especially after the second dose of mRNA vaccines. The pathogenesis appears to involve an immune-mediated process, but the precise mechanism remains mostly unknown so far. Most studies have suggested that VRM is mild and self-limiting, and responds well to conventional treatment. However, a recent nationwide study in Korea warns that severe cases, including fulminant myocarditis or death, are not uncommon in patients with COVID-19 VRM. The long-term cardiovascular consequences of VRM have not been well understood and warrant further investigation. This review also briefly addresses the critical balance between the substantial benefits of COVID-19 vaccination and the rare risks of VRM in the coming endemic era. It emphasizes the need for continued surveillance, research to understand the underlying mechanisms, and strategies to mitigate risk. Filling these knowledge gaps would be vital to refining vaccination recommendations and improving patient care in the evolving COVID-19 pandemic landscape.

Meta-analysis on risk stratification of malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

  • Roh, Young-Eun;Jang, Hyun Ji;Cho, Min-Jung
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.208-215
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    • 2017
  • Background: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a cardiomyopathy characterized by predominant right ventricular fibro-fatty replacement, right ventricular dysfunction and ventricular arrhythmias. It is a rare but important cause of sudden cardiac death in children and young adults. A meta-analysis on risk stratification of major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events indicating the need for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in ARVC was performed. Methods: The pubmed database was searched from its inception to May 2015. Of the 433 citations identified, 12 were included in this meta-analysis. Data regarding major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events were retrieved in 817 subjects from the studies. For the variables, a combined odds ratio (OR) was calculated using a fixed-effects meta-analysis. Results: Extensive right ventricular dysfunction (OR, 2.44), ventricular late potential (OR, 1.66), inducible ventricular tachyarrhythmia during electrophysiology study (OR, 3.67), non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (OR, 3.78), and history of fatal event/sustained VT (OR, 5.66) identified as significant risk factors (p<0.0001). Conclusion: This meta-analysis shows that extensive right ventricular dysfunction, ventricular late potential, inducible ventricular tachyarrhythmia during electrophysiological study, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and history of sustained ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation are consistently reported risk factors of major ventricular tachyarrhythmic events indicating implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in patients with ARVC.

Analysis of the Sohyeon-Donggungilgi Records of Solar Halo Observations

  • Hyun, Jaeyeon;Mihn, Byeong-Hee;Lee, Ki-Won;Kim, Sang Hyuk;Bahk, Uhn Mee
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.65.1-65.1
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    • 2021
  • The Donggungilgi (東宮日記) is the daily records of the Siganwon (侍講院), which was a royal office in the Joseon dynasty that took charge of the education for the crown prince who dwelled in the Donggung (East Palace). This literature contains records of meteorological and astronomical observations as well as educational matters. The Sohyeon-Donggungilgi (昭顯東宮日記) includes records from 1625 to 1645, when Prince Sohyeon, the first son of King Injo (仁祖), was the crown prince. We investigate the records of solar halo observations in the Sohyeon-Donggungilgi. For consistency, we restrict our investigation to the period before the second Manchu invasion of Korea (i.e., 1625 to 1635). We extract 2,684 records and classify them into ten events according to the terms in their descriptions. The largest and smallest number of observation records are for the Hun (暈) and Geuk (戟) events (1,794 and 7 records, respectively). To verify what each event represents in modern atmospheric terms, we refer to historical documents of the Seoungwanji (書雲觀志, Treaties on the Bureau of Astronomy) and Cheonmundaeseong (天文大成, Great Achievements in Astronomy). We also calculate the solar altitude based on the observation hour and compare the descriptions to compute simulations provided by Arbeitskreis Meteore e.V.. We find that the descriptions of the Hun, Junghun (重暈), Yi (珥), and Baekhonggwanil (白虹貫日) events indicate a 22˚ halo, 22˚ and 46˚ halos, a parhelion, and a parhelic circle, respectively, Alternatively, we estimate that the Gwan (冠), Dae (戴), Bae (背), Li (履), and Gyohun (交暈) events describe arcs tangent to a 22˚ or 46˚ halo such as a upper or lower tangent arc, a circumzenithal arc, or a parry arc. We suggest that further studies are required for the Geuk event because the descriptions of this event differ from both documents referred to this study. In the sense that the number of observation records of the Geuk event is the smallest, however, this event may describe a rare phenomenon. We believe that this work will contribute to the study of historical records of solar or lunar halos.

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Why More Flood Disasters are Occurring (New Zealand Examples & Solutions)

  • Smart, G.M.;Mckerchar, A.I.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2008
  • Most New Zealanders reside in coastal regions and four of the larger cities are situated on active floodplains. There have been many recent storm events with rainfall AEPs of 1/150 or rarer and there have been recent flood-related disasters. Insurance claim statistics indicate that the frequency of floods is increasing. Such statistics are alarming local government authorities, insurance companies and populations in low-lying areas. The underlying physical and hydrologic causes of the flood disasters are investigated. It is found that the present numbers of rare rainfall events are not unexpected and there does not appear to be any significant trend evident in the occurrence of river floods. What is revealed is that the river floods appear clustered in certain decades. The clusters do not occur at the same times in different parts of the county. Recently there have been more floods in the north of New Zealand which is where more of the population lives. Also, the increase in population has seen more houses built in locations prone to flooding. Thus the increase in flood-related insurance claims is attributed to more people getting in the way of floods, rather than an increase in the number of floods that have occurred.

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A Study on the Utilization of SNS Post Records in Self-History Composition (자기역사 구성에서의 SNS 게시물 기록 적용 연구)

  • Ryu, Han Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.64
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    • pp.63-92
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    • 2020
  • The SNS post records were not studied by some or essential characteristics of personal records. Until now, Studies on SNS post records have focused on research on technical characteristics, and studies on identity and online space have been rare. This study argued that SNS postings are records that reflect online identity and that SNS postings are meaningful in recreating events related to online and online. This study also suggested the composition of self-history from an epic self-image of events experienced by individuals from their own historical point of view, and argued that SNS post records perform an important role in the process. To this end, the media characteristics of SNS and the way individuals are used were analyzed together.

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN;JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL;LIM, TAE-JIN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2015
  • Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

ASTRONOMY WITH SMALL TELESCOPES

  • SINGH, K. YUGINDRO;MEITEI, I. ABLU;SINGH, S. AJITKUMAR;SINGH, R.K. BASANTAKUMAR
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.741-743
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    • 2015
  • We have designed and built three cost effective observatories, in distinct models, which can house Schmidt-Cassegrain type small telescopes having aperture sizes up to 16 inches. Using the available small telescopes, we provided the people of Manipura State in the far north-east corner of India the opportunity to observe directly with their own eyes the rare, spectacular events of the solar eclipse of January 15, 2010, lunar eclipse of December 10, 2011 and the transit of Venus of June 6, 2012. Apart from sharing a platform with the public for astronomy education and popularization through public outreach programs such as workshops, seminars and night watch programs, we have also developed a laboratory infrastructure and gained expertise in observational techniques based on photoelectric photometry, CCD imaging, CCD photometry and spectroscopy. Our team has become a partner in the ongoing international 'Orion project' headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA which will be producing high quality photometric and spectroscopic data for five stars in the Orion constellation, namely Betelgeuse (alpha Orionis), Rigel (beta Orionis), Mintaka (delta Orionis), Alnilam (epsilon Orionis) and Alnitak (zeta Orionis). In the present paper, the authors would like to give a detailed report of their activities for the growth of astronomy in the state of Manipur, India.

The Study on the Characteristics of Festival Caused by the Liminality Tendency in the Traditional Street Space. - Based on the analysis on the Chinese painting - (전통 가로공간의 리미날리티적 성향에 의한 페스티벌적 특성 분석 - 중국의 <청명상하도(淸明上河圖)>에 나타난 가로공간을 중심으로 -)

  • Lu, Mu-Dan;Lee, In-Hee
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.35 no.9
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2019
  • Modern cities have been clustered with spaces defined by specific functions, while standardized with well-defined areas. The monopoly of the function reduces the publicity of the space and hinders people's daily communication. Street also be overwhelmed by the function of being a "passage", traditional streets were losing their liminality. In fact, the street was a place of meeting, a place of events, and a place of freedom to broaden the choices of behavior. The freedom to stop or walk on one'sits own, be attracted by unforeseen events that are available on traditional streets, has become rare on the streets of big cities. Life has become dull and monotonous, too, through the modelling of the street system. Cities have become grim as communities are cut off and fragmented. In today's big cities, public attention to the liminality of the traditional streets need to be aroused so that people could gather freely and have a festival time.