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Predicting Forest Gross Primary Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms (머신러닝 기법의 산림 총일차생산성 예측 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Bora;Jang, Keunchang;Kim, Eunsook;Kang, Minseok;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2019
  • Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the largest global carbon flux, and forest ecosystems are important because of the ability to store much more significant amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. There have been several attempts to estimate GPP using mechanism-based models. However, mechanism-based models including biological, chemical, and physical processes are limited due to a lack of flexibility in predicting non-stationary ecological processes, which are caused by a local and global change. Instead mechanism-free methods are strongly recommended to estimate nonlinear dynamics that occur in nature like GPP. Therefore, we used the mechanism-free machine learning techniques to estimate the daily GPP. In this study, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used and compared with the traditional multiple linear regression model (LM). MODIS products and meteorological parameters from eddy covariance data were employed to train the machine learning and LM models from 2006 to 2013. GPP prediction models were compared with daily GPP from eddy covariance measurement in a deciduous forest in South Korea in 2014 and 2015. Statistical analysis including correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean squared error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of models. In general, the models from machine-learning algorithms (R = 0.85 - 0.93, MSE = 1.00 - 2.05, p < 0.001) showed better performance than linear regression model (R = 0.82 - 0.92, MSE = 1.24 - 2.45, p < 0.001). These results provide insight into high predictability and the possibility of expansion through the use of the mechanism-free machine-learning models and remote sensing for predicting non-stationary ecological processes such as seasonal GPP.

Prediction of patent lifespan and analysis of influencing factors using machine learning (기계학습을 활용한 특허수명 예측 및 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Yongwoo;Kim, Min Gu;Kim, Young-Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.147-170
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    • 2022
  • Although the number of patent which is one of the core outputs of technological innovation continues to increase, the number of low-value patents also hugely increased. Therefore, efficient evaluation of patents has become important. Estimation of patent lifespan which represents private value of a patent, has been studied for a long time, but in most cases it relied on a linear model. Even if machine learning methods were used, interpretation or explanation of the relationship between explanatory variables and patent lifespan was insufficient. In this study, patent lifespan (number of renewals) is predicted based on the idea that patent lifespan represents the value of the patent. For the research, 4,033,414 patents applied between 1996 and 2017 and finally granted were collected from USPTO (US Patent and Trademark Office). To predict the patent lifespan, we use variables that can reflect the characteristics of the patent, the patent owner's characteristics, and the inventor's characteristics. We build four different models (Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Feed Forward Neural Network, Gradient Boosting Models) and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold Cross Validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated, and the relative importance of predictors is also presented. In addition, based on the Gradient Boosting Model which have excellent performance, Accumulated Local Effects Plot is presented to visualize the relationship between predictors and patent lifespan. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the evaluation reason of individual patents, and discuss applicability to the patent evaluation system. This study has academic significance in that it cumulatively contributes to the existing patent life estimation research and supplements the limitations of existing patent life estimation studies based on linearity. It is academically meaningful that this study contributes cumulatively to the existing studies which estimate patent lifespan, and that it supplements the limitations of linear models. Also, it is practically meaningful to suggest a method for deriving the evaluation basis for individual patent value and examine the applicability to patent evaluation systems.

Study on water quality prediction in water treatment plants using AI techniques (AI 기법을 활용한 정수장 수질예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Kang, Yujin;Song, Jinwoo;Kim, Juhwan;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.151-164
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    • 2024
  • In water treatment plants supplying potable water, the management of chlorine concentration in water treatment processes involving pre-chlorination or intermediate chlorination requires process control. To address this, research has been conducted on water quality prediction techniques utilizing AI technology. This study developed an AI-based predictive model for automating the process control of chlorine disinfection, targeting the prediction of residual chlorine concentration downstream of sedimentation basins in water treatment processes. The AI-based model, which learns from past water quality observation data to predict future water quality, offers a simpler and more efficient approach compared to complex physicochemical and biological water quality models. The model was tested by predicting the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basins at Plant, using multiple regression models and AI-based models like Random Forest and LSTM, and the results were compared. For optimal prediction of residual chlorine concentration, the input-output structure of the AI model included the residual chlorine concentration upstream of the sedimentation basin, turbidity, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, inflow of raw water, alkalinity, NH3, etc. as independent variables, and the desired residual chlorine concentration of the effluent from the sedimentation basin as the dependent variable. The independent variables were selected from observable data at the water treatment plant, which are influential on the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin. The analysis showed that, for Plant, the model based on Random Forest had the lowest error compared to multiple regression models, neural network models, model trees, and other Random Forest models. The optimal predicted residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin presented in this study is expected to enable real-time control of chlorine dosing in previous treatment stages, thereby enhancing water treatment efficiency and reducing chemical costs.

Regeneration of a defective Railroad Surface for defect detection with Deep Convolution Neural Networks (Deep Convolution Neural Networks 이용하여 결함 검출을 위한 결함이 있는 철도선로표면 디지털영상 재 생성)

  • Kim, Hyeonho;Han, Seokmin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2020
  • This study was carried out to generate various images of railroad surfaces with random defects as training data to be better at the detection of defects. Defects on the surface of railroads are caused by various factors such as friction between track binding devices and adjacent tracks and can cause accidents such as broken rails, so railroad maintenance for defects is necessary. Therefore, various researches on defect detection and inspection using image processing or machine learning on railway surface images have been conducted to automate railroad inspection and to reduce railroad maintenance costs. In general, the performance of the image processing analysis method and machine learning technology is affected by the quantity and quality of data. For this reason, some researches require specific devices or vehicles to acquire images of the track surface at regular intervals to obtain a database of various railway surface images. On the contrary, in this study, in order to reduce and improve the operating cost of image acquisition, we constructed the 'Defective Railroad Surface Regeneration Model' by applying the methods presented in the related studies of the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Thus, we aimed to detect defects on railroad surface even without a dedicated database. This constructed model is designed to learn to generate the railroad surface combining the different railroad surface textures and the original surface, considering the ground truth of the railroad defects. The generated images of the railroad surface were used as training data in defect detection network, which is based on Fully Convolutional Network (FCN). To validate its performance, we clustered and divided the railroad data into three subsets, one subset as original railroad texture images and the remaining two subsets as another railroad surface texture images. In the first experiment, we used only original texture images for training sets in the defect detection model. And in the second experiment, we trained the generated images that were generated by combining the original images with a few railroad textures of the other images. Each defect detection model was evaluated in terms of 'intersection of union(IoU)' and F1-score measures with ground truths. As a result, the scores increased by about 10~15% when the generated images were used, compared to the case that only the original images were used. This proves that it is possible to detect defects by using the existing data and a few different texture images, even for the railroad surface images in which dedicated training database is not constructed.

Basic Research on the Possibility of Developing a Landscape Perceptual Response Prediction Model Using Artificial Intelligence - Focusing on Machine Learning Techniques - (인공지능을 활용한 경관 지각반응 예측모델 개발 가능성 기초연구 - 머신러닝 기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Pyo;Suh, Joo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2023
  • The recent surge of IT and data acquisition is shifting the paradigm in all aspects of life, and these advances are also affecting academic fields. Research topics and methods are being improved through academic exchange and connections. In particular, data-based research methods are employed in various academic fields, including landscape architecture, where continuous research is needed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the possibility of developing a landscape preference evaluation and prediction model using machine learning, a branch of Artificial Intelligence, reflecting the current situation. To achieve the goal of this study, machine learning techniques were applied to the landscaping field to build a landscape preference evaluation and prediction model to verify the simulation accuracy of the model. For this, wind power facility landscape images, recently attracting attention as a renewable energy source, were selected as the research objects. For analysis, images of the wind power facility landscapes were collected using web crawling techniques, and an analysis dataset was built. Orange version 3.33, a program from the University of Ljubljana was used for machine learning analysis to derive a prediction model with excellent performance. IA model that integrates the evaluation criteria of machine learning and a separate model structure for the evaluation criteria were used to generate a model using kNN, SVM, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Neural Network algorithms suitable for machine learning classification models. The performance evaluation of the generated models was conducted to derive the most suitable prediction model. The prediction model derived in this study separately evaluates three evaluation criteria, including classification by type of landscape, classification by distance between landscape and target, and classification by preference, and then synthesizes and predicts results. As a result of the study, a prediction model with a high accuracy of 0.986 for the evaluation criterion according to the type of landscape, 0.973 for the evaluation criterion according to the distance, and 0.952 for the evaluation criterion according to the preference was developed, and it can be seen that the verification process through the evaluation of data prediction results exceeds the required performance value of the model. As an experimental attempt to investigate the possibility of developing a prediction model using machine learning in landscape-related research, this study was able to confirm the possibility of creating a high-performance prediction model by building a data set through the collection and refinement of image data and subsequently utilizing it in landscape-related research fields. Based on the results, implications, and limitations of this study, it is believed that it is possible to develop various types of landscape prediction models, including wind power facility natural, and cultural landscapes. Machine learning techniques can be more useful and valuable in the field of landscape architecture by exploring and applying research methods appropriate to the topic, reducing the time of data classification through the study of a model that classifies images according to landscape types or analyzing the importance of landscape planning factors through the analysis of landscape prediction factors using machine learning.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

A Study on Searching for Export Candidate Countries of the Korean Food and Beverage Industry Using Node2vec Graph Embedding and Light GBM Link Prediction (Node2vec 그래프 임베딩과 Light GBM 링크 예측을 활용한 식음료 산업의 수출 후보국가 탐색 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Seo, Jinny
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.73-95
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    • 2021
  • This study uses Node2vec graph embedding method and Light GBM link prediction to explore undeveloped export candidate countries in Korea's food and beverage industry. Node2vec is the method that improves the limit of the structural equivalence representation of the network, which is known to be relatively weak compared to the existing link prediction method based on the number of common neighbors of the network. Therefore, the method is known to show excellent performance in both community detection and structural equivalence of the network. The vector value obtained by embedding the network in this way operates under the condition of a constant length from an arbitrarily designated starting point node. Therefore, it has the advantage that it is easy to apply the sequence of nodes as an input value to the model for downstream tasks such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. Based on these features of the Node2vec graph embedding method, this study applied the above method to the international trade information of the Korean food and beverage industry. Through this, we intend to contribute to creating the effect of extensive margin diversification in Korea in the global value chain relationship of the industry. The optimal predictive model derived from the results of this study recorded a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.79, and an F1 score of 0.86, showing excellent performance. This performance was shown to be superior to that of the binary classifier based on Logistic Regression set as the baseline model. In the baseline model, a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.73 were recorded, and an F1 score of 0.83 was recorded. In addition, the light GBM-based optimal prediction model derived from this study showed superior performance than the link prediction model of previous studies, which is set as a benchmarking model in this study. The predictive model of the previous study recorded only a recall rate of 0.75, but the proposed model of this study showed better performance which recall rate is 0.79. The difference in the performance of the prediction results between benchmarking model and this study model is due to the model learning strategy. In this study, groups were classified by the trade value scale, and prediction models were trained differently for these groups. Specific methods are (1) a method of randomly masking and learning a model for all trades without setting specific conditions for trade value, (2) arbitrarily masking a part of the trades with an average trade value or higher and using the model method, and (3) a method of arbitrarily masking some of the trades with the top 25% or higher trade value and learning the model. As a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the performance of the model trained by randomly masking some of the trades with the above-average trade value in this method was the best and appeared stably. It was found that most of the results of potential export candidates for Korea derived through the above model appeared appropriate through additional investigation. Combining the above, this study could suggest the practical utility of the link prediction method applying Node2vec and Light GBM. In addition, useful implications could be derived for weight update strategies that can perform better link prediction while training the model. On the other hand, this study also has policy utility because it is applied to trade transactions that have not been performed much in the research related to link prediction based on graph embedding. The results of this study support a rapid response to changes in the global value chain such as the recent US-China trade conflict or Japan's export regulations, and I think that it has sufficient usefulness as a tool for policy decision-making.

Development of the Brain Compatibility Index Equation for Brain-based Analysis of Teaching-Learning Program in Science (과학 교수-학습 프로그램의 두뇌기반 분석을 위한 두뇌맞춤지수 산출식 개발)

  • Lee, Il-Sun;Lee, Jun-Ki;Kwon, Yong-Ju
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.30 no.8
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    • pp.1031-1043
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to develop the brain compatibility index equation for the brain-based analysis method of science teaching-learning program. To develop the index equation, one sample unit in middle school science programs was selected and analyzed by the brain-based analysis frame (CORE Brain Map). Then, the index equation was derived by the CORE Brain Map. In addition, four sample units in elementary science programs were selected to validate the brain compatibleness index equation. From the random network theory of Erdos and Renyi, this study derived the brain compatibility index equation; (BCI=$\frac{L_o}{11(N_o-1)}{\cdot}{\sum}\limits_{i=1}^4l_iw_i$) for quantitative analysis of science teaching-learning program. With this equation, this study could find the quantitative difference among the teaching-learning programs through the unit and curriculum. Brain-based analysis methods for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of science teaching-learning program, which was developed in this study is expected, to be a useful application to analyze and diagnose various science teaching-learning programs.