• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.606-612
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• 2019

In this study, to estimate the occurrence of frost that has a negative effect on th growth of crops, we constructed to the statistical model. We factored such various meteorological elements as the minimum temperature, temperature at 18:00, temperature at 21:00, temperature at 24:00, average wind speed, wind speed at 18:00, wind speed at 21:00, amount of cloud, amount of precipitation within 5 days, amount of precipitation within 3 days, relative humidity, dew point temperature, minimum grass temperature and ground temperature. Among the diverse variables, the several weather factors were selected for frost occurrence estimation model using statistical methods: T-test, Variable importance plot of Random Forest, Multicollinearity test, Akaike Informaiton Criteria, and Wilk's Lambda values. As a result, the selected meteorological factors were the amount of cloud, temperature at 24:00, dew point temperature, wind speed at 21:00. The accuracy of the frost occurrence estimation model using Random Forest was 70.6%. When it applied to the main production areas of vegetables, a estimation accuracy of the model was 65.2 and 78.6%.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.1073-1078
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• 2014

In this paper, an effective repeat-back jamming (RBJ) mitigation scheme known assuccessive repeat-back jamming cancellation (SRC) is proposed for the utilization of the successive interference cancellation (SIC) algorithm which is used to mitigate the near-far effect and the multiple-access interference for code division multiple-access communication systems. The proposed scheme uses a combined pseudo-random noise (C-PRN) signal from the estimated major parameters of RBJ signals. To evaluate the performance of the proposed scheme, the root mean squared (RMS) code tracking errors are shown according to the standard deviation of the parameter estimation errors of an RBJ signal, and using the well-known major parameters estimation schemes with a C-PRN signal through Monte-Carlo simulation.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.1280-1289
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• 2005

This paper presents the effects of corrosion environments of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability. The FORM (first order reliability method) is used in order to estimate the failure probability in the buried pipelines with corrosion defects. The effects of varying distribution types of random variables such as normal, lognormal and Weibull distributions on the failure probability of buried pipelines are systematically investigated. It is found that the failure probability for the MB31G model is larger than that for the B31G model. And the failure probability is estimated as the largest for the Weibull distribution and the smallest for the normal distribution. The effect of data scattering in corrosion environments on failure probability is also investigated and it is recognized that the scattering of wall thickness and yield strength of pipeline affects the failure probability significantly. The normalized margin is defined and estimated. Furthermore, the normalized margin is used to predict the failure probability using the fitting lines between failure probability and normalized margin.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.75-87
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• 1980

Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.69-74
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• 2003

The estimation of pest density is a prime concern of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) because the success of artificial intervention such as spraying pestcides or natural enemies depends on pest density. Also, the spatial pattern of pest population within plants or plots has been studies in various ways. In this study, we applied generalized linear mixed model to Tetranychus urticae Koch , two-spotted spider mite count in glasshouse grown roses. For this analysis, the subject-specific as well as pupulation-averaged approaches are used.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1327-1334
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• 2008

Mixed effect binomial regression models are widely used for analysis of correlated count data in which the response is the result of a series of one of two possible disjoint outcomes. In this paper, we consider kernel extensions with nonparametric fixed effects and parametric random effects. The estimation is through the penalized likelihood method based on kernel trick, and our focus is on the efficient computation and the effective hyperparameter selection. For the selection of hyperparameters, cross-validation techniques are employed. Examples illustrating usage and features of the proposed method are provided.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.497-510
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• 2010

For better estimation of elastic property of concrete composites, the effect of Interfacial Transition Zone (ITZ) has been found to be significant. Numerical concrete composites models have been introduced using Finite Element Method (FEM), where ITZ is modeled as a thin shell surrounding aggregate. Therefore, difficulties arise from the mesh generation. In this study, a numerical concrete composites model in 3D based on FEM and random unit cell method is proposed to calculate elastic modulus of concrete composites with ITZ. The validity of the model has been verified by comparing the calculated elastic modulus with those obtained from other analytical and numerical models.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.133-139
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• 2011

Estimation of biomass carbon stock is an important research for estimation of public benefit of forest. Previous studies about biomass carbon stock estimation have limitations, which come from the used deterministic models. The most serious problem of deterministic models is that deterministic models do not provide any explanation about the relevant effects of errors. In this study, the effects of location errors were analyzed in order to estimation of biomass carbon stock of Danyang area using Monte Carlo simulation method. More specifically, the k-Nearest Neighbor(kNN) algorithm was used for basic estimation. In this procedure, random and systematic errors were added on the location of Sample plot, and effects on estimation error were analyzed by checking the changes of RMSE. As a result of random error simulation, mean RMSE of estimation was increased from 24.8 tonC/ha to 26 tonC/ha when 0.5~1 pixel location errors were added. However, mean RMSE was converged after the location errors were added 0.8 pixel, because of characteristic of study site. In case of the systematic error simulation, any significant trends of RMSE were not detected in the test data.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.775-781
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• 2016

A single trait linear mixed random regression test-day model was applied for the first time for analyzing the first lactation monthly test-day milk yield records in Karan Fries cattle. The test-day milk yield data was modeled using a random regression model (RRM) considering different order of Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect (4th order) and the permanent environmental effect (5th order). Data pertaining to 1,583 lactation records spread over a period of 30 years were recorded and analyzed in the study. The variance component, heritability and genetic correlations among test-day milk yields were estimated using RRM. RRM heritability estimates of test-day milk yield varied from 0.11 to 0.22 in different test-day records. The estimates of genetic correlations between different test-day milk yields ranged 0.01 (test-day 1 [TD-1] and TD-11) to 0.99 (TD-4 and TD-5). The magnitudes of genetic correlations between test-day milk yields decreased as the interval between test-days increased and adjacent test-day had higher correlations. Additive genetic and permanent environment variances were higher for test-day milk yields at both ends of lactation. The residual variance was observed to be lower than the permanent environment variance for all the test-day milk yields.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.1529-1547
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• 2015

Establishment of trust is important in wireless sensor networks for security enhancement and successful collaboration. Basically, a node establishes trust with other nodes by estimating a trust value based on monitored behavior of the other nodes. Since a malicious/misbehaving node might launch different attack strategies and might demonstrate random misbehavior, a trust estimation method should be robust against such attacks and misbehavior. Otherwise, the operation of trust establishment will be meaningless, and performance of an application that runs on top of trust establishment will degrade. In this paper, we propose a robust and novel trust estimation method. Unlike traditional trust estimation methods, we consider not only the weight of misbehavior but also the frequency of misbehavior. The frequency-of-misbehavior component explicitly demonstrates how frequently a node misbehaves during a certain observed time period, and it tracks the behavior of nodes more efficiently, which is a main factor in deriving an accurate trust value. In addition, the weight of misbehavior is comprehensively measured to mitigate the effect of an on-off attack. Frequency and weight of misbehavior are comprehensively combined to obtain the trust value. Evaluation results show that the proposed method outperforms other trust estimation methods under different attacks and types of misbehavior.