• 제목/요약/키워드: rainfall prediction

검색결과 570건 처리시간 0.029초

위성영상정보를 이용한 강우유출 해석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis of Using Satellite Image)

  • 박영기;이증석;박정규
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제19권1호
    • /
    • pp.115-124
    • /
    • 2010
  • Urban watershed can be found in the visible changes in technology, the most realistic satellite images is to use the data. Satellite image data on the indicators for progress on the nature of the change of land use is consistent and repetitive information, regular observation makes possible the detailed analysis of space-time. These remote sensing techniques and the type of course and, by using the time series history, the past, the dynamic model and the randomized prediction methodology for the conversion process if the city and river basin cooperation of the space changes effectively will be able to extrapolate. For each of the main changes in river flow, depending on the area of urbanization as determined according to reproduce the duration of the relationship between the urbanization of the area and runoff can be represented as a linear polynomial expression was, if a linear expression in the two fast slew rate of 0.858 to 0.861 showed up, and fast slew rate of 0.934 to 0.974 for the polynomial are reported. Change of land use changes in the watershed of the flow is one of the most affecting elements. Therefore, changes in land use of the correct classification of rivers is a more accurate calculation of the amount of the floodgate. In particular, using the Landsat images through the image of the land use category, land use past data and calculated using the Markov Chain model and predict the future land use plan in the water control project will be used for large likely.

수직 위상 배열 안테나 기반 기상 레이다에서의 해수면 클러터 제거 성능 분석 (Analysis of Sea Clutter Removal Capability in a Weather Radar Based on a Vertical Phased Array Antenna)

  • 이종길
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
    • /
    • 제22권1호
    • /
    • pp.155-161
    • /
    • 2018
  • 국지적인 기상 이변이나 강우 현상 등을 분석하고 예보하기 위해서는 지역별로 저고도 탐색이 가능한 다수의 단거리 기상 레이다들이 필요하다. 그러나 이러한 레이다들의 특성인 낮은 고각의 전자파 빔 때문에 지표면 및 해수면 클러터가 기상 반사 신호를 오염시킬 가능성이 매우 높다. 대부분의 지표면 클러터는 매우 낮은 도플러 주파수 부근에 집중되어 나타나므로 주파수 대역에서의 구분이 비교적 용이한 편이다. 그러나 해수면 클러터의 경우 도플러 주파수 점유대역이 기상조건에 따라 매우 넓게 나타날 수 있기 때문에 클러터의 제거가 매우 어려운 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 전자적인 고각 빔 조향을 위하여 수직 위상 배열 안테나 구조를 갖는 기상 레이다에서의 해수면 클러터 제거 성능 정도를 분석하였다. 또한 위상배열 안테나의 수신 빔 형성을 통하여 해수면 클러터의 제거가 적절하게 이루어질 수 있음을 보였다.

단거리 기상 레이다에서의 위상 잡음 영향 분석 (Analysis of Phase Noise Effects in a Short Range Weather Radar)

  • 이종길
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
    • /
    • 제22권8호
    • /
    • pp.1090-1098
    • /
    • 2018
  • 국지적인 기상 이변이나 강우 현상 등을 분석하고 예보하기 위해서는 지역별로 저고도 탐색이 가능한 다수의 단거리 기상 레이다들이 필요하다. 그러나 이러한 레이다들의 특성인 낮은 고각의 전자파 빔 때문에 지표면 클러터가 기상 신호를 심하게 오염시킬 가능성이 매우 높다. 그러므로 이러한 문제를 완화시키기 위하여 일반적으로 도플러 저주파 대역 차단 필터를 사용하게 된다. 그러나 레이다 시스템에서의 위상잡음은 이러한 강력한 클러터의 제거를 제한시킬 수 있으며 잔존하는 클러터로 인하여 기상 파라미터 추정에 심각한 문제를 야기할 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 레이다의 시스템 위상 잡음 특성을 분석하고 이러한 위상 잡음이 강력한 클러터가 존재하는 환경, 즉 단거리, 저고도 기상레이다에서의 SCR(signal to clutter ratio) 개선 정도에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다.

삼중수소 사고유출로 인한 농작물 오염 평가 모델 (Model for assessing the contamination of agricultural plants by accidentally released tritium)

  • 금동권;이한수;강희석;최용호;이창우
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • 제30권1호
    • /
    • pp.45-54
    • /
    • 2005
  • 원자력시설로부터 삼중수소 사고 누출시 시설 주변 농작물의 삼중수소 오염 평가를 위한 동적격실모델 ECOREA-H3를 개발하였다. 모델의 격실은 크게 대기, 토양, 농작물로 구성되며 농작물은 엽채류 곡물류, 근군류의 3개 소그룹으로 분류하여 각각 독립적으로 모델링하였다. 벼에 대한 삼중수소 피폭실험 해석을 통해 모델의 예측 정확도가 조사되었다. 모델링 결과 추수시 벼이삭의 TFWT 농도는 입력데이터 중 공기의 절대습도, 뿌리흡수비 강우량에 OBT 농도는 공기의 절대습도, 이삭의 성장기간, 유기물의 수소함량의 영향을 상대적으로 크게 받는 것으로 나타났다. 벼이삭 OBT 농도에 대한 모델 계산과 실험 측정값은 잘 일치하였다.

제주도 동부 해안대수층의 수리특성 산정과 지하수위 예측 (Estimation of Hydraulic Characteristics and Prediction of Groundwater Level in the Eastern Coastal Aquifer of Jeju Island)

  • 조시범;전병칠;박은규;최광준;송성호;김기표
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.661-672
    • /
    • 2014
  • Due to tidal force, it is very difficult to estimate the hydraulic parameters of high permeable aquifer near coastal area in Jeju Island. Therefore, to eliminate the impact of tidal force from groundwater level and estimate the hydraulic properties, tidal response technique has been mainly studied. In this study we have extracted 38 tidal constituents from groundwater level and harmonic constants including frequency, amplitude, and phase of each constituent using T_TIDE subroutine which is used to estimate oceanic tidal constituents, and then we have estimated hydraulic diffusivity associated with amplitude attenuation factor(that is the ratio of groundwater level amplitude to sea level amplitude for each tidal constituent) and phase lag(that is phase difference between groundwater level and sea level for each constituent). Also using harmonic constants for each constituent, we made the sinusoidal wave and then we constructed the synthesized wave which linearly combined sinusoidal wave. Finally, we could get residuals(net groundwater level) which was excluded most of tidal influences by eliminating synthesized wave from raw groundwater level. As a result of comparing statistics for synthesized level and net groundwater level, we found that the statistics for net groundwater level was more insignificant than those of synthesized wave. Moreover, in case of coastal aquifer which the impact of tidal force is even more than those of other environmental factors such as rainfall and groundwater yield, it is possible to predict groundwater level using synthesized wave and regression analysis of residuals.

LARS-WG 기후자료를 이용한 금호강 유역 모의발생 벼 생산량의 불확실성 (Uncertainty of Simulated Paddy Rice Yield using LARS-WG Derived Climate Data in the Geumho River Basin, Korea)

  • 은코모제피 템바;정상옥
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제55권4호
    • /
    • pp.55-63
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho river basin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for the Geumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1B and B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index of agreement (IoA), prediction efficiency ($R^2$), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were used to evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of 0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed $R^2$ of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectively after adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projections for Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of $4.5^{\circ}C$ in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddy rice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and $0.173t{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.

Development of a software framework for sequential data assimilation and its applications in Japan

  • Noh, Seong-Jin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Shiiba, Michiharu;Kim, Sun-Min;Yorozu, Kazuaki
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
    • /
    • pp.39-39
    • /
    • 2012
  • Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modelling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modelling framework for sequential data assimilation, namely MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modelling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. In this software framework, sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and radar rainfall estimates is assessed simultaneously in sequential data assimilation.

  • PDF

Influence of abiotic factors on seasonal incidence of pests of tasar Silkworm Antheraea mylitta D.

  • Siddaiah, Aruna A.;Prasad, Rajendra;Rai, Suresh;Dubey, Omprakash;Satpaty, Subrat;Sinha, Ravibhushan;Prsad, Suraj;Sahay, Alok
    • International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
    • /
    • 제29권1호
    • /
    • pp.135-144
    • /
    • 2014
  • Rearing of tropical tasar silkworm, Antheraea mylitta Drury is mainly conducted in outdoor on Terminalia tomentosa W. & A. a nature grown primary host plant available in forest and also on raised primary host plant Terminalia arjuna Bedd. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall are the main environmental factors for occurrence of pests (parasites and predators) of tasar silkworm during I, II and III crop rearing in the tropical tasar producing zones. The present study was aimed to study the influence of abiotic factors on prevalence of tasar silkworm pests. The study was conducted at different agro-climatic regions viz., Central Tasar Research &Training Institute, Ranchi, Jharkhand, Regional Extension Centre, Katghora, Chattisgarh and Regional Extension Centre, Hatgamaria during 2010-13 covering 3 seed crop and 6 commercial crops. Data on incidence of tropical tasar silkworm endo-parasitoids like Uzi Fly, Blepharipa zebina Walker and Ichneumon fly (Yellow Fly), Xathopimpla pedator, Fabricius and Predators such as Stink bug (Eocanthecona furcellata Wolf), Reduviid bug (Sycanus collaris Fabricius) and Wasp (Vespa orientalis Linnaeus) was recorded Weekly. The meteorological data was collected daily. Data was collected from 4 different agro-climatic zones of tasar growing areas. Analysis of the data revealed a significant negative correlation between abiotic factors and incidence of ichneumon fly and uzi fly. Based on the 3 years data on prevalence of pests region-wise pest calendars and prediction models were developed.

모의기법에 의한 홍수기 저수지 운영 모형 개발(II) (Development of Reservoir Operation Model using Simulation Technique in Flood Season(II))

  • 신용노;맹승진;고익환;이환기
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
    • /
    • 제35권6호
    • /
    • pp.797-805
    • /
    • 2002
  • 본 연구의 제Ⅰ보 (신용노 등, 2000)에서는 댐의 제약조건과 댐 상·하류의 유출상황을 고려하여 홍수기 댐을 운영 할 수 있는 모의기법 모형인 EV ROM을 개발하였고, 본 보에서는 제Ⅰ보에서 개발된 EV ROM을 FORTRAN Power Station 4.0에 의해 금강수계 댐군을 연계운영 할 수 있는 전산프로그램을 개발하였다. 개발된 프로그램을 사용하여 금강수계에서 발생한 3개 홍수사상에 적용해 본 결과 기존의 Rigid ROM이나 Technical ROM보다 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 이는 본 연구에서 개발한 EV ROM이 댐 유역뿐만 아니라 댐 하류 홍수제어지점의 수문상황을 동시에 고려하여 댐의 방류계열을 결정하였기 때문이다. 향후, 본 연구에서 개발된 EV ROM을 다양한 홍수사상에 적용하기 위해서는 예측강우량의 정확도 개선과 함께 프로그램의 지속적인 보완이 이루어져야 할 것이다.

Hydrograph Separation Using EMMA Model for the Coniferous Forest Catchment in Gwangneung Gyeonggido, Republic of Korea (I) - Determination of the End Members and Tracers -

  • Kim, Kyongha;Yoo, Jae-Yun;Jun, Jae-Hong;Choi, Hyung Tae;Jeong, Yong-Ho
    • 한국산림과학회지
    • /
    • 제95권5호
    • /
    • pp.556-561
    • /
    • 2006
  • This study was conducted to choose end-members and tracers for application of End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) model for the coniferous forest catchment, Gwangneung Gyeongi-do near Seoul metropolitan of South Korea (N $37^{\circ}$ 45', E $127^{\circ}$ 09'). This coniferous forest of Pinus Korainensis and Abies holophylla was planted at stocking rate of $3.0stems\;ha^{-1}$ in 1976. Thinning and pruning were carried out two times in the spring of 1996 and 2004 respectively. We monitored two successive rainfall events during ten days from June 26, 205 to July 5, 2005. Two storm events were selected to determine the end members and natural traces for hydrograph separation. The event 1 amounts to 161.9 m for two days from June 26 to 27, 2005. The event 2 precipitates to 139.2 mm for one day of July 1, 205. Throughfall, groundwater, soil water and stream water of the two events above were sampled through the bulk and automatic sampler. Their chemical properties were analyzed for prediction of the main tracer. The end members that contribute to the stream runoff were identified from the three components including groundwater, soil water and throughfall. Each component and stream water in the two events formed the suitable mixing diagram in case of chloride-nitrate ion and sulfate-potassium ion. Especially, chloride-nitrate ion was found to be the most suitable tracers for EMMA model in the two events.