• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative risk assessment

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Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk

  • Huang, Yong-Sheng;Fan, Qian-Qian;Li, Chuang;Nie, Meng;Quan, Hong-Yang;Wang, Lin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.4435-4438
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    • 2015
  • p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

Dynamic quantitative risk assessment of accidents induced by leakage on offshore platforms using DEMATEL-BN

  • Meng, Xiangkun;Chen, Guoming;Zhu, Gaogeng;Zhu, Yuan
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2019
  • On offshore platforms, oil and gas leaks are apt to be the initial events of major accidents that may result in significant loss of life and property damage. To prevent accidents induced by leakage, it is vital to perform a case-specific and accurate risk assessment. This paper presents an integrated method of Ddynamic Qquantitative Rrisk Aassessment (DQRA)-using the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL)-Bayesian Network (BN)-for evaluation of the system vulnerabilities and prediction of the occurrence probabilities of accidents induced by leakage. In the method, three-level indicators are established to identify factors, events, and subsystems that may lead to leakage, fire, and explosion. The critical indicators that directly influence the evolution of risk are identified using DEMATEL. Then, a sequential model is developed to describe the escalation of initial events using an Event Tree (ET), which is converted into a BN to calculate the posterior probabilities of indicators. Using the newly introduced accident precursor data, the failure probabilities of safety barriers and basic factors, and the occurrence probabilities of different consequences can be updated using the BN. The proposed method overcomes the limitations of traditional methods that cannot effectively utilize the operational data of platforms. This work shows trends of accident risks over time and provides useful information for risk control of floating marine platforms.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Staphylococcus aureus in Kimbab (김밥에서의 Staphylococcus aureus에 대한 정량적 미생물위해평가 모델 개발)

  • Bahk, Gyung-Jin;Oh, Deog-Hwan;Ha, Sang-Do;Park, Ki-Hwan;Joung, Myung-Sub;Chun, Suk-Jo;Park, Jong-Seok;Woo, Gun-Jo;Hong, Chong-Hae
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.484-491
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    • 2005
  • Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) analyzes potential hazard of microorganisms on public health and offers structured approach to assess risks associated with microorganisms in foods. This paper addresses specific risk management questions associated with Staphylococcus aureus in kimbab and improvement and dissemination of QMRA methodology, QMRA model was developed by constructing four nodes from retail to table pathway. Predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate levels of S. aureus in kimbab at time of consumption, Due to lack of dose-response models, final level of S. aureus in kimbeb was used as proxy for potential hazard level, based on which possibility of contamination over this level and consumption level of S. aureus through kimbab were estimated as 30.7% and 3.67 log cfu/g, respectively. Regression sensitivity results showed time-temperature during storage at selling was the most significant factor. These results suggested temperature control under $10^{\circ}C$ was critical control point for kimbab production to prevent growth of S. aureus and showed QMRA was useful for evaluation of factors influencing potential risk and could be applied directly to risk management.

인간신뢰도분석에서의 인간행위 의존성 평가: 암모니아 저장시설의 누출사고 평가 예

  • 강대일;이윤환;진영호
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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    • 1998.11a
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    • pp.219-224
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    • 1998
  • 확률론적 안전성 평가(Probabilistic Safety Assessment PSA)나 정량적인 위험도 평가(Quantitative Risk Assessment: QRA)에서 인간신뢰도분석(human reliability analysis)은 인간행위를 기기처럼 생각하여 전체 시스템의 안전성에 중요한 초기사건(initiating event) 이전이나 초기사건 이후 또는 초기사건을 유발하는 인간행위를 파악하고 정량화하여, 확률론적 평가의 논리구조인 사건 및 고장수목(event tree 및 fault tree)이나 사고경위 단절집합 (accident sequence outsets)에 포함시키는 것이다. (중략)

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A Comparative Study on the Risk(Individual and Societal) Assessment for Surrounding Areas of Chemical Processes (화학공정 주변지역에 미치는 위험성(사회적 위험성 및 개인적 위험성) 평가방법에 관한 비교 연구)

  • 김윤화;엄성인;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 1995
  • Two methods of the numerical method of CPQRA(Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis) and the manual method of IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) were used to estimate the individual risk and societal risk around the chemical plant. Where, the CPQRA is introduced to verify the theoritical background of the manual of international atomic energy agency. The Gaussian plume model which has a weather stability class D with velocity of 5m/s was applied to calculate dispersion of hazard material. Also, 8-point method was employed to the effects of accidents for wind distribution. Furthermore, historical record, FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) were used to estimate the probability or frequency of accidents. Eventually, the individual risk shows isorisk contour and the societal risk shows F-N curve around hazard facility, especially in chemical plants. Caulculated results, which both individual and societal risk, by using IAEA manual show simillar results to those of calculation by numerical method of CPQRA.

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Risk Assessment and Risk contour mapping (네덜란드의 위험성 평가 예 -위험성 평가 및 위험 등고선도-)

  • 편집실
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 1994
  • 이 논문은 설계상의 안전 및 완전한 정량적 위험성 평가에 의해 맞추는 것이 가능한 여러가지 방법(QRA: Quantitative risk analysis)에 촛점을 두면서, 위험성 평가의 방법론의 간략한 개요를 소개하고 있다. QRA의 결과는 단독 위험 및 그룹 혹은 사회적 위험으로써 보통 소개된다. 계산된 단독 risk는 자주 단독 위험 graph(IRG : Individual risk graph)와 단독 위험등고선(IRC : Individual risk contours)의 형으로 나타낸다. IRG와 IRC는 예를 들면 다음과 같은 사고의 시나리오로 계산된다. : 여러가지 기상조건 하에서 2kg/s의 암모니아의 유출을 1800s로 한다. 이 예는 그래프가 곡선의 상승을 나타내는 것이 확실하다. 마지막으로, QRA는 예를 들어서 토지이용계획 등에 유용한 수단으로 될 수 있다고 할 수 있다. 한편 화학플랜트의 안전에 대해서는, 위험성 평가를 위해 다른 방법이 유효하며, 불가피하다.

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A Study on the Safety of Liquefied Hydrogen Refueling Station through Quantitative Risk Assessment (정량적 위험성평가를 통한 액화수소충전소 안전성 고찰)

  • Woo-Il Park;Seung-Kyu Kang;In-Woo Lee;Yun-Young Yang;Chul-Hee Yu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2023
  • In addition to analyzing the hydrogen economy trends of the international community (Korea, the United States, Europe, Japan, etc.), which is being promoted to realize a carbon-neutral society, this study compared and analyzed the differences between the gaseous hydrogen refueling station, which is a key hydrogen-using facility close to the people, and a liquefied hydrogen refueling station that is scheduled to be built in the future. In addition, SAFETI, a quantitative risk assessment program, was used to analyze the safety of liquefied hydrogen refueling stations and In consideration of the individual and societal risks and the ranking of risks by facility, which are conditional allowable areas, a plan to improve safety such as facility layout was proposed

A Study on Safety Impact Assessment of a Multiple Hydrogen Refueling Station (다차종 동시 충전을 위한 수소 스테이션의 안전 영향 평가 연구)

  • Boo-Seung Kim;Kyu-Jin Han;Seung-Taek Hong;Youngbo Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2024
  • As the proliferation of hydrogen electric vehicles accelerates, there is observed diversification in hydrogen refueling station models. This diversification raises safety concerns for different types of stations. This study conducted a quantitative risk assessment of a multi-vehicle hydrogen station, capable of simultaneously refueling cars, buses, and trucks. Utilizing Gexcon's Effects&Riskcurves Software, scenarios of fire and explosion due to hydrogen leaks were assessed. The study calculated the impact distances from radiative heat and explosion overpressure, and measured risks to nearby buildings and populations. The largest impact distance was from fires and explosions at dispensers and high-pressure storage units. High-pressure storage contributes most significantly to personal and societal risk. The study suggests that conservative safety distances and proper protective measures for these facilities can minimize human and material damage in the event of a hydrogen leak.

Applicability of QSAR Models for Acute Aquatic Toxicity under the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals in the Republic of Korea (화평법에 따른 급성 수생독성 예측을 위한 QSAR 모델의 활용 가능성 연구)

  • Kang, Dongjin;Jang, Seok-Won;Lee, Si-Won;Lee, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Sang Hee;Kim, Pilje;Chung, Hyen-Mi;Seong, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2022
  • Background: A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was adopted in the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH, EU) regulations as well as the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals (AREC, Republic of Korea). It has been previously used in the registration of chemicals. Objectives: In this study, we investigated the correlation between the predicted data provided by three prediction programs using a QSAR model and actual experimental results (acute fish, daphnia magna toxicity). Through this approach, we aimed to effectively conjecture on the performance and determine the most applicable programs when designating toxic substances through the AREC. Methods: Chemicals that had been registered and evaluated in the Toxic Chemicals Control Act (TCCA, Republic of Korea) were selected for this study. Two prediction programs developed and operated by the U.S. EPA - the Ecological Structure-Activity Relationship (ECOSAR) and Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (T.E.S.T.) models - were utilized along with the TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology) commercial program. The applicability of these three programs was evaluated according to three parameters: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The prediction analysis on fish and daphnia magna in the three programs showed that the TOPKAT program had better sensitivity than the others. Conclusions: Although the predictive performance of the TOPKAT program when using a single predictive program was found to perform well in toxic substance designation, using a single program involves many restrictions. It is necessary to validate the reliability of predictions by utilizing multiple methods when applying the prediction program to the regulation of chemicals.

A Study on the Control of Hazard Facilities Management system in Urban area by utilizing GIS (지리정보시스템(GIS)을 이용한 도심지 내의 위해시설 관리시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Ham, Eun-Gu;Roh, Sam-Kew
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.5 no.4 s.19
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2005
  • This research developed the RMIS(Risk Management Information System) which focus on works of risk management fields required of apply of a space information, and focus on the DB to establish and apply the space information efficiently with research scope on the LPG refueling station in city. On the basis of the RMIS, this research provides the baseline to lead on an efficiency of safety inspection of LPG refueling station, advance risk assessment, and efficient making decision of an accident correspondence assessment with interlocking the GIS representing risk through the automation of a quantitative risk assessment standardize requirement to control at real-time. The RMIS development process is as follows. firstly, Relational Database(RDB) was developed by using fundamental data both On-site and Off-site relating data as peforming risk assessment on the LPG refueling station in city. Second, the risk management integral database system was developed to monitor and control the risk efficiently for user with using the Visual Basic Program. Third, through interlocking the risk management integral database system and the GIS(Falcon-map) was suggested the decision making method. Represented results through out the RMIS program development are as follows. Firstly, the RMIS was established the mutual information to advance management the risk efficiently for user and inspector with using the risk management data. Second, as this study managed risk for on-site and off-site separately and considered effect for inside and outside of facility, constructed the basis on safety management which can respond to major accident. Third, it was composed the baseline to making decision that on the basis of user interface.