• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.63-79
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• 2011

Deducting the risk level of infrastructure and buildings based on past human disaster risk cases and implementing prevention measures are important activities for disaster prevention. The object of this study is to measure the confidence to proceed quantitative analysis of various disaster risk cases through text mining methodology. Indeed, by examining confidence calculation process and method, this study suggests also a basic quantitative framework. The framework to measure the confidence is composed into four stages. First step describes correlation by categorizing basic elements based on human disaster ontology. Secondly, terms and cases of Term-Document Matrix will be created and the frequency of certain cases and terms will be quantified, the correlation value will be added to the missing values. In the third stage, association rules will be created according to the basic elements of human disaster risk cases. Lastly, the confidence value of disaster risk cases will be measured through association rules. This kind of confidence value will become a key element when deciding a risk level of a new disaster risk, followed up by preventive measures. Through collection of human disaster risk cases related to road infrastructure, this study will demonstrate a case where the four steps of the quantitative framework and process had been actually used for verification.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.201-217
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• 2015

In this paper, we report computational testing result to examine the validity of firm's bankruptcy risk estimation through quantification of supply chain risk. Supply chain risk in this study refers to upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk, To assess the firm's risk affected by supply chain risk, we adopt unit of analysis as industry level. since supply and demand relationships of the firm could be generalized by the industry input-output table and the availability of various valid economic indicators which are chronologically calculated. The research model to estimate firm's risk level is the linear regression model to assess the industry bankruptcy risk estimation of the focal firm's industry with the independent variables which could quantitatively reflect demand and supply risk of the industry. The publicly announced macro economic indicators are selected as the candidate independent variables and validated through empirical testing. To validate our approach, in this paper, we confined our research scope to steel industry sector and its related industry sectors, and implemented the research model. The empirical testing results provide useful insights to further refine the research model as the valid forecasting mechanism to capture firm's future risk estimation more accurately by adopting supply chain industry risk aspect, in conjunction with firm's financial and other managerial factors.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.53-62
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• 2000

본 연구는 건설 프로젝트의 초기 단계에서 미래에 발생할 수 있는 리스크를 리스크분할체계를 통하여 파악하고, 파악된 리스크를 효과적이고 체계적으로 분석 및 평가하여 프로젝트 초기단계에서 리스크를 분석하고 평가할 수 있는 절차와 계산틀을 제시하였다. 그에 따라, 프로젝트 기획 및 입찰 전 단계에서 건설공사 이행과정에서 발생할 가능성이 있는 리스크를 분석 및 평가하기 위해 FREES(Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Expert System)을 제안하였으며 가상 시나리오를 설정하여 모델에 대한 검증을 수행하였다. FREES는 기존의 IF-THEN 지식베이스를 사용한 전문가 시스템과 비교했을 경우 퍼지소속함수를 사용함으로써 규칙의 수를 현저하게 줄일 수 있으며 지식베이스의 구축과 변경 및 삭제 등이 용이하기 때문에 시간의 변화에 따라 다양하게 변화하는 리스크의 크기나 영향정도를 쉽게 반영할 수 있다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2009

Hazard analysis identifies probability to hazard occurrence and its potential impact on business processes operated in organizations. This paper illustrates a quantitative approach of hazard analysis of information systems by measuring the degree of hazard to information systems using probabilistic risk analysis and activity based costing technique. Specifically the research model projects probability of occurrence by PRA and economic loss by ABC under each identified hazard. To verify the model, each computerized subsystem which is called a business process and hazards occurred on information systems are gathered through one private organization. The loss impact of a hazard occurrence is produced by multiplying probability by the economic loss.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.135-141
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• 2008

사이버 침해사고와 해킹의 위험성이 증대되고 있다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 정보보호기술중에서 보안위험분석 분야의 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 하지만 평가를 위해서는 적지 않은 평가비용, 수개월의 평가기간, 평가 참여인원, 평가후의 보안대책비용, 보안관리비용에 대한 부담이 클 수밖에 없다. 이에 따라, 본 논문에서는 정량평가 형태의 위험분석평가를 프로젝트단위로 관리하며, 평가기간 및 적정 평가자 선정을 위한 사례기반추론알고리즘을 이용한 위험분석방법론 제안한다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제60권2호
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• pp.170-178
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• 2024

This study aimed to quantitatively analyze the risk using data from 329 safety accidents that occurred in aquaculture fisheries management vessels over the recent five years (2018-2022). For quantitative risk analysis, the Bayesian network proposed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) was used to analyze the risk level according to the fishing process and cause of safety accidents. Among the work processes, the fishing process was analyzed to have the highest risk, being 12.5 times that of the navigation, 2.7 times that of the maintenance, and 8.8 times that of the loading and unloading. Among the causes of accidents, the hull and working environment showed the highest risk, being 1.7 times that of fishing gear and equipment, 4.7 times that of machinery and equipment, and 9.4 times that of external environment. By quantitatively analyzing the safety accident risks for 64 combinations of these four work processes and four accident causes, this study provided fundamental data to reduce safety accidents occurring in aquaculture fisheries management vessels.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.43-49
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• 2005

현재 여러 가지 목적으로 사용되고 있는 독성가스는 누출사고 발생시 확산되는 특성이 있어 피해 범위가 매우 넓고, 인체에 치명적이라는 특징을 가지고 있다. 따라서, 위험성이 높은 독성가스 이용시설은 누출사고에 대비한 사고 대응 시스템을 구축하여 비상상황 발생시 즉각 대응이 가능하도록 하여야 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 FTA기법을 이용한 사고 시나리오 선정 및 빈도 분석과 DNV사의 PHAST(Ver 6.2)를 이용하여 독성가스 누출에 의한 확산 사고영향 분석을 실시하였다. 그리고, 정량적 위험성 평가 결과들을 이용하여 독성가스시설의 비상대응시스템을 구축하였다.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.79-85
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• 2005

In this paper, we dealt with substantial asset analysis methodology applied to two-dimensional asset classification and qualitative evaluation method according to the business process. Most of the existent risk analysis methodology and tools presented classification by asset type and physical evaluation by a quantitative method. We focused our research on qualitative evaluation with 2-dimensional asset classification. It converts from quantitative asset value with purchase cost, recovery and exchange cost, etc. to qualitative evaluation considering specific factors related to the business process. In the first phase, we classified the IT assets into tangible and intangible assets, including human and information data asset, and evaluated their value. Then, we converted the quantitative asset value to the qualitative asset value using a conversion standard table. In the second phase, we reclassified the assets using 2-dimensional classification factors reflecting the business process, and applied weight to the first evaluation results. This method is to consider the organization characteristics, IT asset structure scheme and business process. Therefore, we can evaluate the concrete and substantial asset value corresponding to the organization business process, even if they are the same asset type.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한예방의학회 1994년도 교수 연수회(환경)
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• pp.417-425
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• 1994

Although animal studies have been used most often for quantitative risk assessment, it is generally recognized that well-conducted epidemiologic studies would provide the best basis for estimating human risk. However, there are several features related to the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies that frequently limit their usefulness for quantitating risks. The lack of accurate information on exposure in epidemiologic studies is perhaps the most frequently cited limitation of these studies for risk assessment. However. other features of epidemiologic study design, such as statistical power, length of follow-up, confounding, and effect modification, may also limit the inferences that can be drawn from these studies. Furthermore, even when the aforementioned limitations are overcome, substantial uncertainty exists concerning the choice of an appropriate statistical (or biologic) model for extrapolation beyond the range of exposures observed in a particular study. This paper focuses on presenting a review and discussion of the methodologic issues involved in using epidemiologic studies for risk assessment. This review concentrates on the use of retrospective, cohort, mortality studies of occupational groups for assessing cancer risk because this is the most common application of epidemiologic data for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Epidemiologic data should not be viewed as a panacea for the problems inherent in using animal bioassay data for QRA. Rather, information that can be derived from epidemiologic and toxicologic studies complement one another, and both data sources need to be used to provide the best characterization of human risk.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.70-76
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• 2020

본 논문에서는 충주시 설치 예정인 수소충전소를 대상으로 하여 공정별 위험요소를 분석하여 위험도를 낮출 수 있는 방향을 제시하였다. 위험요소를 분석하기 위해 수소 가스의 정량적 위험성 평가 도구 중 하나인 HyRAM을 이용하였다. 공정별로 사고 빈도와 사고 영향을 평가하여 가장 위험한 공정과 사고 요소를 제시하였으며, 이를 종합한 위험 감쇄 요인을 도출하였다. 수소충전소는 현재 세계적으로 인프라 확충 시기이기 때문에 사고 데이터가 부족해 이러한 위험성 평가가 대안이 될 수 있으며 향후 늘어나게 될 수소충전소 건립에 참고자료로 쓰일 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.