• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative evaluation models

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A Study on Dose-Response Models for Foodborne Disease Pathogens (주요 식중독 원인 미생물들에 대한 용량-반응 모델 연구)

  • Park, Myoung Su;Cho, June Ill;Lee, Soon Ho;Bahk, Gyung Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.299-304
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    • 2014
  • The dose-response models are important for the quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) because they would enable prediction of infection risk to humans from foodborne pathogens. In this study, we performed a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis to better quantify this association. The meta-analysis applied a final selection of 193 published papers for total 43 species foodborne disease pathogens (bacteria 26, virus 9, and parasite 8 species) which were identified and classified based on the dose-response models related to QMRA studies from PubMed, ScienceDirect database and internet websites during 1980-2012. The main search keywords used the combination "food", "foodborne disease pathogen", "dose-response model", and "quantitative microbiological risk assessment". The appropriate dose-response models for Campylobacter jejuni, pathogenic E. coli O157:H7 (EHEC / EPEC / ETEC), Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio cholera, Rota virus, and Cryptosporidium pavum were beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.15$, ${\beta}=7.59$, fi = 0.72), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.49$, ${\beta}=1.81{\times}10^5$, fi = 0.67) / beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.22$, ${\beta}=8.70{\times}10^3$, fi = 0.40) / beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.18$, ${\beta}=8.60{\times}10^7$, fi = 0.60), exponential (r=$1.18{\times}10^{-10}$, fi = 0.14), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.11$, ${\beta}=6,097$, fi = 0.09), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.21$, ${\beta}=1,120$, fi = 0.15), exponential ($r=7.64{\times}10^{-8}$, fi = 1.00), betapoisson (${\alpha}=0.17$, ${\beta}=1.18{\times}10^5$, fi = 1.00), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.25$, ${\beta}=16.2$, fi = 0.57), exponential ($r=1.73{\times}10{-2}$, fi = 1.00), and exponential ($r=1.73{\times}10^{-2}$, fi = 0.17), respectively. Therefore, these results provide the preliminary data necessary for the development of foodborne pathogens QMRA.

Soil Fertility Evaluation with Adoption of Soil Map Database for Tobacco Fields (토양도 자료를 활용한 연초 경작지의 비옥도 평가)

  • Hong, Soon-Dal;Park, Hyo-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 1999
  • Field experiments were conducted in the 101 tobacco fields(51 fields in 1985 and 50 fields in 1986) of chief tobacco producing counties of Chungbuk province(Jincheon, Eumseong, Goesan, and Joongweon counties), Chungnam province(Cheonweon county), and Kyongbuk province (Cheongdo, Seongju, and Andong counties) for two years from 1985 to 1986 in order to evaluate soil fertility using chemical properties and soil map database. Pot experiments also on the same soils were conducted and the results were compared to those of field experiments. The yield of tobacco in the plots of no fertilization was considered as a basic factor representing the soil fertility and was evaluated by nineteen independent variables, that was 9 chemical properties and 10 soil map databases. These independent variables were classified into two groups, 11 quantitative indexes and 9 qualitative indexes, and were analyzed by multiple linear regression(MLR) of SAS by REG and GLM models. The yield of tobacco in the plot of no fertilization showed high variations, e.g. the difference between minimum and maximum yields was about 5.0-5.5 times in the pot experiment and 8.2-14.9 times in the field experiment. The indexes indicating close link between yield of tobacco and soil chemical indexes, was selected but it was not well matched by the years or between pot and field experiments. Also, the standardized partial regression coefficients of quantitative indexes for the yield of field were less than 1.0, suggesting that it is difficult to develop an available single index for the evaluation of soil fertility. Evaluation for the soil fertility of field by MLR was better than that of single regression and it was gradually improved by adding chemical properties, quantitative indexes, and qualitative indexes of soil map. For example, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of MLR for the yield of 1985 was increased to 0.422 with chemical indexes, 0.503 by addition of quantitative indexes, and 0.633 by the additional adding of qualitative indexes of soil map, compared to 0.244 of single index, $NO_3-N$ content of soil. Consequently, it is assumed that this approach by MLR with quantitative and qualitative indexes including chemical properties and soil map databases was available as an evaluation model of soil fertility for tobacco field.

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A Study on the Implication from Reform of HLC Institutional Accreditation Model (미국 고등학습위원회 기관평가인증제 평가모형 개혁의 시사점에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Hak
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.245-265
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this research is to find the features of HLC institutional accreditation model and the implication on the second period institutional accreditation of Korea. This research focus on accreditation model, accreditation period, comprehensive evaluation, criteria, decision making for accreditation status and accreditation supporting system. This research draws following suggestions to the second period institutional accreditation of Korea. 1. The institutional accreditation should apply various accreditation models according to the features of institute. 2. The institutional accreditation should focus on the autonomous quality improvement of institute with the quality assurance. 3. The quantitative evaluation should be reduced and qualitative evaluation based on mission and objects should be reinforced. 4. The interim evaluation should be strictly enforced for quality improvement. 5. The government should enlarge reflection the results of accreditation on financial aid to universities. 6. The web-based accreditation supporting system interworking with "Higher Education in Korea" service is needed.

Evaluation of Estimation and Variability of Fines Content in Pohang for CPT-based Liquefaction Assessment (CPT 기반 액상화 평가를 위한 포항지역 세립분 함량 예측 및 변동성 평가)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Sung-Ryul;Yoo, Byeong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the use of CPT-based liquefaction assessment method has increased by providing more accurate results than other field tests. In CPT-based liquefaction evaluation, various soil properties are predicted and they are used for liquefaction potential assessment. In particular, fines content is one of the important input parameters in CPT-based liquefaction assessment, so it is very important to use correct prediction model and to make quantitative evaluation of estimating variability of fines content. In this study, the error evaluation of existing models for prediction of fines content through CPT was performed, and the most suitable model was selected for Pohang area, where the liquefaction phenomenon was observed in the 2017. In addition, the inherent variability of soil was analyzed, and the estimating variability of fines content was evaluated quantitatively considering the inherent variability of soil, measurement error of CPT and transformation uncertainty of selected model.

Prediction of Land-cover Change in the Gongju Areas using Fuzzy Logic and Geo-spatial Information (퍼지 논리와 지리공간정보를 이용한 공주지역 토지피복 변화 예측)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.387-402
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    • 2005
  • In this study, we tried to predict the change of future land-cover and relationships between land-cover change and geo-spatial information in the Gongju area by using fuzzy logic operation. Quantitative evaluation of prediction models was carried out using a prediction rate curve using. Based on the analysis of correlations between the geo-spatial information and land-cover change, the class with the highest correlation was extracted. Fuzzy operations were used to predict land-cover change and determine the land-cover prediction maps that were the most suitable. It was predicted that in urban areas, the urban expansion of old and new towns would occur centering on the Gem-river, and that urbanization of areas along the interchange and national roads would also expand. Among agricultural areas, areas adjacent to national roads connected to small tributaries of the Gem-river and neighboring areas would likely experience changes. Most of the forest areas are located in southeast and from this result we can guess why the wide chestnut-tree cultivation complex is located in these areas and the possibility of forest damage is very high. As a result of validation using the prediction rate curve, it was indicated that among fuzzy operators, the maximum fuzzy operator was the most suitable for analyzing land-cover change in urban and agricultural areas. Other fuzzy operators resulted in the similar prediction capabilities. However, in the prediction rate curve of integrated models for land-cover prediction in the forest areas, most fuzzy operators resulted in poorer prediction capabilities. Thus, it is necessary to apply new thematic maps or prediction models in connection with the effective prediction of changes in the forest areas.

Impact of Trend Estimates on Predictive Performance in Model Evaluation for Spatial Downscaling of Satellite-based Precipitation Data

  • Kim, Yeseul;Park, No-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2017
  • Spatial downscaling with fine resolution auxiliary variables has been widely applied to predict precipitation at fine resolution from coarse resolution satellite-based precipitation products. The spatial downscaling framework is usually based on the decomposition of precipitation values into trend and residual components. The fine resolution auxiliary variables contribute to the estimation of the trend components. The main focus of this study is on quantitative analysis of impacts of trend component estimates on predictive performance in spatial downscaling. Two regression models were considered to estimate the trend components: multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). After estimating the trend components using the two models,residual components were predicted at fine resolution grids using area-to-point kriging. Finally, the sum of the trend and residual components were considered as downscaling results. From the downscaling experiments with time-series Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 precipitation data, MLR-based downscaling showed the similar or even better predictive performance, compared with GWR-based downscaling with very high explanatory power. Despite very high explanatory power of GWR, the relationships quantified from TRMM precipitation data with errors and the auxiliary variables at coarse resolution may exaggerate the errors in the trend components at fine resolution. As a result, the errors attached to the trend estimates greatly affected the predictive performance. These results indicate that any regression model with high explanatory power does not always improve predictive performance due to intrinsic errors of the input coarse resolution data. Thus, it is suggested that the explanatory power of trend estimation models alone cannot be always used for the selection of an optimal model in spatial downscaling with fine resolution auxiliary variables.

A Comparative Study on Surrogate Models and Sensitivity Analysis for Structure Design of Automatic Salt Collector Using Orthogonal Array Experiment (직교배열실험을 이용한 자동채염기 구조설계의 민감도해석과 대리모델 비교 연구)

  • Song, Chang Yong;Lee, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2020
  • The paper deals with comparative study of characteristics of surrogate models and sensitivity evaluation using design of experiments in order to enhance and analysis the structure design of an automatic salt collector under various design load conditions. Orthogonal array design based on numerical analysis was used for the design of experiments. The thickness sizing variables of main structure member were considered the design factors, and the output responses were selected from the strength performances as well as the weight. The quantitative effects on responses for each design factor were evaluated from the orthogonal array experiment. Optimum design case was also identified to improve the strength performances with weight minimization. Using the orthogonal array experiment. various surrogate models such as response surface model, Kriging model, and Chebyshev orthogonal polynomial were generated. The orthogonal array experiment results were validated by the surrogate modeling results. The most suitable surrogate model was the response surface model for the exploration of design space of the automatic salt collector.

Evaluation on Structure Design Sensitivity and Meta-modeling of Passive Type DSF for Offshore Plant Float-over Installation Based on Orthogonal Array Experimental Method (직교배열실험 방법 기반 해양플랜트 플로트오버 설치 공법용 수동형 DSF의 구조설계 민감도와 메타모델링 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-Jun;Song, Chang Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.85-95
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    • 2021
  • Structure design sensitivity was evaluated using the orthogonal array experimental method for passive-type deck support frame (DSF) developed for float-over installation of the offshore plant. Moreover, approximation characteristics were also reviewed based on various meta-models. The minimum weight design of the DSF is significantly important for securing both maneuvering performance and buoyancy of a ship equipped with the DSF and guaranteeing structural design safety. The performance strength of the passive type DSF was evaluated through structure analysis based on the finite element method. The thickness of main structure members was applied to design factors, and output responses were considered structure weight and strength performances. Quantitative effects on the output responses for each design factor were evaluated using the orthogonal array experimental method and analysis of variance. The optimum design case was also identified from the orthogonal array experiment results. Various meta-models, such as Chebyshev orthogonal polynomial, Kriging, response surface method, and radial basis function-based neural network, were generated from the orthogonal array experiment results. The results of the orthogonal array experiment were validated using the meta-modeling results. It was found that the radial basis function-based neural network among the meta-models could approximate the design space of the passive type DSF with the highest accuracy.

A study on performance-based evaluation system for NATM tunnels in use: development of evaluation model and validation (공용중인 NATM 터널의 성능중심 평가체계 연구: 평가모형 개발 및 검증)

  • Moon, Joon-Shik;Kim, Hong-Kyoon;An, Jai-Wook;Lee, Jong-Gun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2020
  • In a performance-based evaluation of structures in use, the current performance is assessed by summing up the weighting of the evaluation indices for each performance. In this study, to suggest a performance-based evaluation technique for NATM tunnels in use, the performance evaluation indices were derived by examining the characteristics and similarities of each index developed from previous study. The weighting of the evaluation indices was derived by calculating the relative importance of each evaluation indices from the AHP analysis. In order to develop a quantitative evaluation model, grading criteria for each performance index was derived through literature review, and performance evaluation tables for road and railway tunnels were presented. In order to verify the significance of the proposed performance evaluation model, the correlation analysis was performed between each evaluation index and the final evaluation result. In the correlation analysis, the survey data measured through precision safety diagnosis in the tunnel in use was applied. It may be said that the proposed evaluation indices, weighting, criteria and evaluation models for tunnels in use can be applied to the performance-based maintenance system of tunnels.

ACT-R Predictive Model of Korean Text Entry on Touchscreen

  • Lim, Soo-Yong;Jo, Seong-Sik;Myung, Ro-Hae;Kim, Sang-Hyeob;Jang, Eun-Hye;Park, Byoung-Jun
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2012
  • Objective: The aim of this study is to predict Korean text entry on touchscreens using ACT-R cognitive architecture. Background: Touchscreen application in devices such as satellite navigation devices, PDAs, mobile phones, etc. has been increasing, and the market size is expanding. Accordingly, there is an increasing interest to develop and evaluate the interface to enhance the user experience and increase satisfaction in the touchscreen environment. Method: In this study, Korean text entry performance in the touchscreen environment was analyzed using ACT-R. The ACT-R model considering the characteristics of the Korean language which is composed of vowels and consonants was established. Further, this study analyzed if the prediction of Korean text entry is possible through the ACT-R cognitive model. Results: In the analysis results, no significant difference on performance time between model prediction and empirical data was found. Conclusion: The proposed model can predict the accurate physical movement time as well as cognitive processing time. Application: This study is useful in conducting model-based evaluation on the text entry interface of the touchscreen and enabled quantitative and effective evaluation on the diverse types of Korean text input interfaces through the cognitive models.