• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantifying risk

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Assessment of Risk Factors for Developmental Defects of the Enamel in Preterm (조산아의 발육성 법랑질 결함의 위험 요인 평가)

  • Shang-yon Park;Jaeho Lee;Hyung-Jun Choi;Chung-Min Kang
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.192-204
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to determine the criteria for quantifying developmental defects of enamel in primary teeth in premature babies and to investigate the severity of developmental defects according to the gestational age, birth weight, systemic complications, and treatments received after preterm birth. Birth information, a history of complications, the duration of parenteral nutrition, and endotracheal intubation were investigated by retrospectively reviewing the admission and discharge records of premature babies in the neonatal intensive care unit. The Preterm Developmental Defects of Enamel (PDDE) index was designed by modifying the existing developmental defects of enamel index. Based on PDDE index, the evaluator scored developmental defects of enamel by classifying them as enamel hypomineralization and hypoplasia. The PDDE scores in the extremely preterm and extremely low birth weight groups were significantly higher than those in other groups. Furthermore, PDDE scores of premature babies with bronchopulmonary dysplasia, rickets, intraventricular hemorrhage, or necrotizing colitis were significantly higher than those in the control group. In addition, more than 50 days of endotracheal intubation and more than 20 days of parenteral nutrition were associated with significantly higher PDDE scores than those in the control group and were risk factors for developmental defects of enamel. This study provides basic information for identifying risk factors for developmental defects of enamel in premature babies.

Evaluation of Hazardous Zones by Evacuation Scenario under Disasters on Training Ships (실습선 재난 시 피난 시나리오 별 위험구역 평가)

  • SangJin Lim;YoonHo Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.200-208
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    • 2024
  • The occurrence a fire on a training ship with a large number of people on board can lead to severe casualties. Hence the Seafarers' Act and Safety Life At Sea(SOLAS) emphasizes the importance of the abandon ship drill. Therefore, in this study, the training ship of Mokpo National Maritime University, Segero, which has a large number of people on board, was selected as the target ship and the likelihood and severity of fire accidents on each deck were predicted through the preliminary hazard analysis(PHA) qualitative risk assessment. Additionally, assuming a fire in a high-risk area, a simulation of evacuation time and population density was performed to quantitatively predict the risk. The the total evacuation time was predicted to be the longest at 501s in the meal time scenario, in which the population distribution was concentrated in one area. Depending on the scenario, some decks had relatively high population densities of over 1.4pers/m2, preventing stagnation in the number of evacuees. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data to develop training scenarios for training ships by quantifying evacuation time and population density according to various evacuation scenarios, and the research can be expanded in the future through comparison of mathematical models and experimental values.

Assessment of quantitative structure-activity relationship of toxicity prediction models for Korean chemical substance control legislation

  • Kim, Kwang-Yon;Shin, Seong Eun;No, Kyoung Tai
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.30 no.sup
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    • pp.7.1-7.10
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    • 2015
  • Objectives For successful adoption of legislation controlling registration and assessment of chemical substances, it is important to obtain sufficient toxicological experimental evidence and other related information. It is also essential to obtain a sufficient number of predicted risk and toxicity results. Particularly, methods used in predicting toxicities of chemical substances during acquisition of required data, ultimately become an economic method for future dealings with new substances. Although the need for such methods is gradually increasing, the-required information about reliability and applicability range has not been systematically provided. Methods There are various representative environmental and human toxicity models based on quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). Here, we secured the 10 representative QSAR-based prediction models and its information that can make predictions about substances that are expected to be regulated. We used models that predict and confirm usability of the information expected to be collected and submitted according to the legislation. After collecting and evaluating each predictive model and relevant data, we prepared methods quantifying the scientific validity and reliability, which are essential conditions for using predictive models. Results We calculated predicted values for the models. Furthermore, we deduced and compared adequacies of the models using the Alternative non-testing method assessed for Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals Substances scoring system, and deduced the applicability domains for each model. Additionally, we calculated and compared inclusion rates of substances expected to be regulated, to confirm the applicability. Conclusions We evaluated and compared the data, adequacy, and applicability of our selected QSAR-based toxicity prediction models, and included them in a database. Based on this data, we aimed to construct a system that can be used with predicted toxicity results. Furthermore, by presenting the suitability of individual predicted results, we aimed to provide a foundation that could be used in actual assessments and regulations.

Screening of Ecotoxicant Responsive Genes and Expression Analysis of Benzo[a]pyrene-exposed Rockfish (Sebastes schlgeli)

  • Yum, Seung-Shic;Woo, Seon-Ock;Lee, Taek-Kyun
    • Molecular & Cellular Toxicology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.114-119
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    • 2006
  • Benzo[a]pyrene is a representative ecotoxicant in marine environment and a model compound of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which has an ability to bioaccumulate in aquatic organisms. This study aimed to identify molecular biomarkers suitable for assessing environmental pollution using a microarray technique. We examined the effects of benzo[a]pyrene on gene expressions in the rockfish, Sebastes schlegeli. We constructed the subtractive cDNA library with hepatic RNA from benzo[a]pyrene-exposed and non-exposed control fish. From the library 10,000 candidate clones were selected randomly and cDNA microarray was constructed. We determined benzo[a]pyrene-responsive genes using a high-density microarray. Statistical analysis showed that approximately 400 genes are significantly induced or reduced by benzo[a]pyrene treatment ($2\;{\mu}m$). Especially gene expression changes of 4 candidate clones among the up- or down-regulated genes were investigated in 6, 12 and 24 hr BaP-exposed fish groups. Many methods have been developed to monitor marine environmental status, which depend on quantifying the levels of the toxic components in polluted seawater or on ecological accessing, such as species diversity or richness. However, those methods could not provide information on physiological or genetic changes induced by such environmental stresses. Comparing with the conventional methods, these data will propose that benzo[a]pyrene-responsive genes can be useful for biological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on marine organism at molecular level.

Three-dimensional measurement of periodontal surface area for quantifying inflammatory burden

  • Park, Sa-Beom;An, So-Youn;Han, Won-Jeong;Park, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.154-164
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Measurement of the root surface area (RSA) is important in periodontal treatment and for the evaluation of periodontal disease as a risk factor for systemic disease. The aim of this study was to measure the RSA at 6 mm below the cementoenamel junction (CEJ) using the Mimics software (Materialise, Leuven, Belgium). Methods: We obtained cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) data from 33 patients who had visited the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Radiology of Dankook University Dental Hospital. The patients comprised 17 men and 16 women aged from 20 to 35 years, with a mean age of 24.4 years. Only morphologically intact teeth were included in our data. Because the third molars of the maxilla and mandible have a high deformation rate and were absent in some participants, they were not included in our research material. Results: The CBCT data were reconstructed into 3-dimensional (3D) teeth models using the Mimics software, and the RSA at 6 mm below the CEJ was separated and measured using 3-Matic (Materialise). In total, 924 3D teeth models were created, and the area at 6 mm below the CEJ could be isolated in all the models. The area at 6 mm below the CEJ was measured in all teeth from the 33 patients and compared based on sex and position (maxilla vs. mandible). Conclusions: In this study, we demonstrated that it was feasible to generate 3D data and to evaluate RSA values using CBCT and the Mimics software. These results provide deeper insights into the relationship between periodontal inflammatory burden and systemic diseases.

Development of The Criticality Evaluation System for Rare Metals Stockpiling (희유금속 비축 적정성 평가체계 수립)

  • Kim, Yu-Jeong;Kim, Dae-Hyung;Kim, Jinsoo;Kim, Juhan
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 2018
  • The import amount of rare metal in Korea is about 6,034 million USD, but the self-sufficiency of rare metals is about only 1%. In order to secure the stable supply of rare metals, it is necessary to operate an efficient stockpile system. In this study, we established a system to assess the adequacy of stockpiles by quantifying the risk factors of tangible and intangible risks in order to establish an efficient stockpile strategy. The model developed in this study aims to select the rare metals that need to be stockpiled first and to suggest the direction of the stockpiling policy in accordance with technological change and market change from the mid and long term viewpoint. The evaluation results derived from the model can quantitatively measure the security level of each rare metal and enable relative comparison between the rare metals using criticality matrix. Therefore, it is expected that more efficient stockpile policy will be possible if the proposed model is utilized in the future policy making.

Numerical Evaluation of Excavation Damage Zone Around Tunnels by Using Voronoi Joint Models (Voronoi 절리모델에 의한 터널 주변 굴착손상권(EDZ)의 해석 사례)

  • Park, Eui-Seob;Martin, C. Derek;Synn, Joong-Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.328-337
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    • 2008
  • Quantifying the extent and characteristics of the excavation damage zone(EDZ) is important for the nuclear waste industry which relies on the sealing of underground openings to minimize the risk for radionuclide transport. At AECL's Underground Research Laboratory(URL) the Tunnel Sealing Experiment(TSX) was conducted and the tunnel geometry and orientation relative to the stress field had been selected to minimize the potential for the development of an EDZ. The extent and characteristics of the EDZ was measured using velocity profiling and permeability measurements in radial boreholes. The results from this EDZ characterization are used in this paper to evaluate a modeling fir estimating the extent of the EDZ. The methodology used a damage model formulated in the Universal Distinct Element Code and calibrated to laboratory properties. This model was then used to predict the extent of crack initiation and growth around the TSX tunnel and the results compared to the measured damage. The development of the damage zone in the numerical model was found to be in good agreement with the field measurements.

Projection of Burden of Cancer Mortality for India, 2011-2026

  • Dsouza, Neevan D.R.;Murthy, N.S.;Aras, R.Y.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.4387-4392
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    • 2013
  • Projection of load of cancer mortality helps in quantifying the burden of cancer and is essential for planning cancer control activities. As per our knowledge, there have not been many attempts to project the cancer mortality burden at the country level in India mainly due to lack of data on cancer mortality at the national and state level. This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer mortality problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. Age, sex and site-wise specific cancer mortality data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer mortality rates were obtained by taking weighted average of these six registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled mortality rates were assumed to represent the country's mortality rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of cancer mortality in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2011 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled mortality rates to estimate the projected number of cancer mortality cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various cancer-leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. The results revealed that an estimated 0.44 million died due to cancer during the year 2011, while 0.51 million and 0.60 million persons are likely to die from cancer in 2016 and 2021. In the year 2011 male mortality was estimated to be 0.23 million and female mortality to be 0.20 million. The estimated cancer mortality would increase to 0.70 million by the year 2026 as a result of change in size and composition of population. In males increase will be to 0.38 millions and in females to 0.32 millions. Among women, cancer of the breast, cervical and ovary account for 34 percent of all cancer deaths. The leading sites of cancer mortality in males are lung, oesophagus, prostrate and stomach. The above results show a need for commitment for tackling cancer by reducing risk factors and strengthening the existing screening and treatment facilities.

A Model for Supporting Information Security Investment Decision-Making Considering the Efficacy of Countermeasures (정보보호 대책의 효과성을 고려한 정보보호 투자 의사결정 지원 모형)

  • Byeongjo Park;Tae-Sung Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 2023
  • The importance of information security has grown alongside the development of information and communication technology. However, companies struggle to select suitable countermeasures within their limited budgets. Sönmez and Kılıç (2021) proposed a model using AHP and mixed integer programming to determine the optimal investment combination for mitigating information security breaches. However, their model had limitations: 1) a lack of objective measurement for countermeasure efficacy against security threats, 2) unrealistic scenarios where risk reduction surpassed pre-investment levels, and 3) cost duplication when using a single countermeasure for multiple threats. This paper enhances the model by objectively quantifying countermeasure efficacy using the beta probability distribution. It also resolves unrealistic scenarios and the issue of duplicating investments for a single countermeasure. An empirical analysis was conducted on domestic SMEs to determine investment budgets and risk levels. The improved model outperformed Sönmez and Kılıç's (2021) optimization model. By employing the proposed effectiveness measurement approach, difficulty to evaluate countermeasures can be quantified. Utilizing the improved optimization model allows for deriving an optimal investment portfolio for each countermeasure within a fixed budget, considering information security costs, quantities, and effectiveness. This aids in securing the information security budget and effectively addressing information security threats.

A Study on the Overall Economic Risks of a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Nuclear Power Plant Using the Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 이용한 원전사고의 종합적인 경제적 리스크 평가)

  • Jang, Han-Ki;Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2008
  • Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.