• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantifying risk

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Uncertainty Minimization in Quantitative Electron Spin Resonance Measurement: Considerations on Sampling Geometry and Signal Processing

  • Park, Sangeon;Shim, Jeong Hyun;Kim, Kiwoong;Jeong, Keunhong;Song, Nam Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetic Resonance Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2020
  • Free radicals including reactive oxygen species (ROS) are important chemicals in the research area of biology, pharmaceutical, medical, and environmental science as well as human health risk assessment as they are highly involved in diverse metabolism and toxicity mechanisms through chemical reactions with various components of living bodies. Electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy is a powerful tool for detecting and quantifying those radicals in biological environments. In this work we observed the ESR signal of 2,2,6,6-Tetra-methyl piperidine 1-oxyl (TEMPO) in aqueous solution at various concentrations to estimate the uncertainty factors arising from the experimental conditions and signal treatment methods. As the sample position highly influences the signal intensity, dual ESR tube geometry (consists of a detachable sample tube and a position fixed external tube) was adopted. This type of measurement geometry allowed to get the relative uncertainty of signal intensity lower than 1% when triple measurements are averaged. Linear dependence of signal intensity on the TEMPO concentration, which is required for the quantification of unknown sample, could be obtained over a concentration range of ~103 by optimizing the signal treatment method depending on the concentration range.

Nonlinear seismic analysis of a super 13-element reinforced concrete beam-column joint model

  • Adom-Asamoah, Mark;Banahene, Jack Osei
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.905-924
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    • 2016
  • Several two-dimensional analytical beam column joint models with varying complexities have been proposed in quantifying joint flexibility during seismic vulnerability assessment of non-ductile reinforced concrete (RC) frames. Notable models are the single component rotational spring element and the super element joint model that can effectively capture the governing inelastic mechanisms under severe ground motions. Even though both models have been extensively calibrated and verified using quasi-static test of joint sub-assemblages, a comparative study of the inelastic seismic responses under nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) of RC frames has not been thoroughly evaluated. This study employs three hypothetical case study RC frames subjected to increasing ground motion intensities to study their inherent variations. Results indicate that the super element joint model overestimates the transient drift ratio at the first story and becomes highly un-conservative by under-predicting the drift ratios at the roof level when compared to the single-component model and the conventional rigid joint assumption. In addition, between these story levels, a decline in the drift ratios is observed as the story level increased. However, from this limited study, there is no consistent evidence to suggest that care should be taken in selecting either a single or multi component joint model for seismic risk assessment of buildings when a global demand measure such as maximum inter-storey drift is employed in the seismic assessment framework.

Development of a methodology for analysing and quantifying the impact of delay factors affecting construction projects

  • Shebob, Abdulhamid;Dawood, Nashwan;Shah, Raj K.
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2012
  • Delays are one of the biggest problems facing by the construction industry and they have significant financial and social impact in construction projects. The paper presents a framework of Delay Analysis System (DAS) with the aim of analysing the impact of delay factors in Libyan construction projects. The system has designed by integrating the possible delay factors, critical activities of a project using@risk simulator. A case study of building project was demonstrated to identify the impact of delays and the sensitivity of delay factor. The case study result showed that the project might be delayed by 97 to 103 days in comparison to the planned duration. The developed DAS is a tool for analysing and identify the impacts of delay factors and assist to construction manager to take necessary measure in reducing the delay impact. The paper provides a methodology for analysing the possible delay impact in a construction project and informing to construction manager in advance of the possible delay factors.

Multiobjective R&D Investment Planning under Uncertainty (불확실한 상황하에서의 다복적 R & D 투자계획수립에 관한 연구-최적화 기법과 계층화 분석과정의 통합접 접근방안을 중심으로-)

  • 이영찬;민재형
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.39-60
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, an integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), integer goal programming (IGP) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to handle multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making problems under uncertainty inherent in R & D investment planning. SDP has its capability to handle problems which are sequential and stochastic. In the SDP model, the probabilities of the funding levels in any time period are generated using a subjective model which employs functional relationships among interrelated parameters, scenarios of future budget availability and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers. The SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy considering the possibility that actual funding received may be less than anticipated one and thus the projects being selected under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. IGP is used to handle the multiobjective issues such as tradoff between economic benefit and technology accumulation level. Other managerial concerns related to the determination of the optimal project portifolio within each stage of the SDP model. including project selection, project scheduling and annual budget allocation are also determined by the IGP. AHP is proposed for generating scenario-based transformation probabilities under budgetary uncertainty and for quantifying the environmental risk to be considered.

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A Formal Guidance for Handling Different Uncertainty Sources Employed in the Level 2 PSA

  • Ahn Kwang-Il;Yang Joon-Eon;Ha Jae-Joo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.83-103
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    • 2004
  • The methodological framework of the Level 2 PSA appears to be currently standardized in a formalized fashion, but there have been different opinions on the way the sources of uncertainty are characterized and treated. This is primarily because the Level 2 PSA deals with complex phenomenological processes that are deterministic in nature rather than random processes, and there are no probabilistic models characterizing them clearly. As a result, the probabilistic quantification of the Level 2 PSA CET / APET is often subjected to two sources of uncertainty: (a) incomplete modeling of accident pathways or different predictions for the behavior of phenomenological events and (b) expert-to-expert variation in estimating the occurrence probability of phenomenological events. While a clear definition of the two sources of uncertainty involved in the Level 2 PSA makes it possible to treat an uncertainty in a consistent manner, careless application of these different sources of uncertainty may produce different conclusions in the decision-making process. The primary purpose of this paper is to characterize typical sources of uncertainty that would often be addressed in the Level 2 PSA and to provide a formal guidance for quantifying their impacts on the PSA Level 2 risk results. An additional purpose of this paper is to give a formal approach on how to combine random uncertainties addressed in the Level 1 PSA with subjectivistic uncertainties addressed in the Level 2 PSA.

A Study on the Quantitative Determination of Failure Effect Probability for Criticality Analysis on System (시스템의 치명도 분석을 위한 고장영향확률 정량화 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Myeong-seok;Choi, Seong-Dae;Hur, Jang-wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2019
  • The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

Quantification Method of Driver's Dangerous Driving Behavior Considering Continuous Driving Time (연속주행시간을 고려한 운전자 위험운전행동의 정량화 방법)

  • Lee, Hyun-Mi;Lee, Won-Woo;Jang, Jeong-Ah
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.723-728
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    • 2022
  • This study is a method for evaluating and quantifying driver's dangerous driving behavior. The quantification method calculates various driving information in real time after starting the vehicle operation such as the time that the vehicle has been continuously driven without a break, overspeed, rapid acceleration, and overspeed driving time. These quantified risk of driving behavior values can be individually provided as a safe driving index, or can be used to objectify the evaluation of a group of drivers on roads, or vehicle groups such as cargo/bus/passenger vehicles.

Parameter Impact Applied Case-based Reasoning Cost Estimation

  • Joseph Ahn;Hyun-Soo Lee;Moonseo Park;Sae-Hyun Ji;Sooyoung Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.475-478
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    • 2013
  • To carry out a one-off construction project successfully, effective and accurate early cost estimation is crucial, especially during the conceptual stage where very limited minimum information of construction project is given. As the level of accuracy of the early cost estimation has huge impacts on precise budgeting and cost management of a project, in other words, reducing the risk of a project, cost must be managed with special awareness. In an effort to improve the estimate accuracy of cost during the conceptual stage, this research introduces a Parameter Impact (PI) which can quantify weights of parameters and rank them; and PI development derived from the principle of impulse in physics is explicated. For a case study, 76 public apartment building cases in Korea are analyzed. To examine the validity of the proposed PI, a validation in terms of CBR applicability test and estimate accuracy comparisons using 10-nearest neighbor cases are carried out. The validation results support that the suggested PI can be applied in quantifying the weights of the parameters and CBR method for early cost estimation.

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Analysis of Fire Characteristics based on the Thickness and Incident Heat Flux of Wood (합판류 목재의 두께별 입사열유속에 따른 연소특성 비교 연구)

  • Hwang, Sun-Woo;Park, Won-Hee;Kim, Chang-Yong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2020
  • This study tested the wood used in building interiors; each type had various incident heat fluxes based on their thickness. The combustion characteristics measured were effective heat of combustion, heat release rate peak and arrival time, maximum average rate of heat emission, and piloted ignition temperature. The wood specimens used in the experiment were 4.8 to 18 mm thick. 25, 35, 50, and 60 kW/㎡ were applied to the incident heat flux that the wood specimens were exposed to. The wood specimens tested were two types of medium-density fiberboard (each with a different density), treated red pine, particle board, and plywood. A comprehensive comparison of different fire characteristics was conducted to analyze the fire patterns corresponding to each type of wood in this way, the risk of fire was studied. The risk of fire was particularly high for particle board. The results of quantifying the fire characteristics of the types of wood studied could function as important input data with which to calculate the fire load of composite combustibles.

Analysis of Economic Effectiveness for Flood Control of Dam (댐의 홍수조절에 의한 경제적 효과분석)

  • Choi, Seung-An;Yi, Choong-Sung;Shim, Myung-Pil;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.383-396
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    • 2007
  • The studies on efficiency of flood control reservoir has been introduced into four categories including direct flood control contribution by reservoir, flow-duration change and environmental-ecological change in downstream of dam and flood damage estimation of flood plain. In spite of all the previous approaches, the quantification of the effect of reservoir on the flood control in planning stage is quite complex due to lack of a standard for quantifying feasibility of project. In this study, we develop a methodology that can clearly and accurately quantify the flood damage reduction together with the existing flood level reduction at downstream. The proposed approach uses three appraisal standards of flood control: 'potential safety', 'relative risk' and 'absolute risk' according to the risk by stage. The developed methodology was applied to the Namhan river basin with the storm event of July, 2006. The result shows the damage reduction of 4,189 billion won was estimated. The economic benefits for the flood control effect by dam will greatly contribute to the public understanding of the importance and the effect of the flood control by dam.