• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantifying risk

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Non-chemical Risk Assessment for Lifting and Low Back Pain Based on Bayesian Threshold Models

  • Pandalai, Sudha P.;Wheeler, Matthew W.;Lu, Ming-Lun
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.206-211
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    • 2017
  • Background: Self-reported low back pain (LBP) has been evaluated in relation to material handling lifting tasks, but little research has focused on relating quantifiable stressors to LBP at the individual level. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Composite Lifting Index (CLI) has been used to quantify stressors for lifting tasks. A chemical exposure can be readily used as an exposure metric or stressor for chemical risk assessment (RA). Defining and quantifying lifting nonchemical stressors and related adverse responses is more difficult. Stressor-response models appropriate for CLI and LBP associations do not easily fit in common chemical RA modeling techniques (e.g., Benchmark Dose methods), so different approaches were tried. Methods: This work used prospective data from 138 manufacturing workers to consider the linkage of the occupational stressor of material lifting to LBP. The final model used a Bayesian random threshold approach to estimate the probability of an increase in LBP as a threshold step function. Results: Using maximal and mean CLI values, a significant increase in the probability of LBP for values above 1.5 was found. Conclusion: A risk of LBP associated with CLI values > 1.5 existed in this worker population. The relevance for other populations requires further study.

Impacts of Ownership Structure on Systemic Risk of Listed Companies in Vietnam

  • VU, Van Thi Thuy;PHAN, Nghia Trong;DANG, Hung Ngoc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2020
  • The research objective of the paper is to clarify the factors influencing system risks of listed companies in Vietnam, with a focus on clarifying the relationship and quantifying the impacts of ownership structure on systemic risk of listed companies. The data used in this study included financial statements and stock price data of listed companies on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Hanoi Stock Exchange of Vietnam stock market in the period from 2010 to 2017. The paper used the method of estimation in establising the regression models to choose among three models: Random Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model or Pooled OLS for regression using Stata statistical software. The research results showed that state ownership and ownership by foreign investors were positively related to systemic risk, while ownership by domestic investors had a reverse relationship with systemic risk of listed companies in Vietnam. In addition, as a control variable, both company size and profitability had an effect on the systemic risk of listed companies in the research sample. Based on the research results, the authors interpreted some of the implications in order to minimize systemic risks in the operation of listed companies in Vietnam.

Risk Value Calculation Method for Moderate Risk Concentration Type at Qualitative Risk Analysis Phase (정성적 위험분석 단계에서 중간위험 집중형 위험도 산정 방법)

  • Kim, Seon-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2015
  • The risk analysis phase of construction risk management process is subdivided into the qualitative risk analysis that plays a major role, and the quantitative risk analysis acting as a supportive role. The traditional calculation method for quantifying a risk value that has been applied so far is an equation to multiply a probability by an impact simply, but its result shows the low risk value biased distribution. Although another equation that shows the high risk biased distribution as an alternative of traditional method was proposed, both of the low or high risk biased equations do not match with the statistical general knowledge that most natural phenomenons are close to the normal distribution. This study proposes a new risk value calculation method that is concentrated to the moderate risk value. Because the risk value distribution by a new method shows a normal shape similar to natural phenomenon, it helps to choose a middle level not biased to the low or high levels when choosing the level of risk response. Furthermore, it could contribute to improve the flexibility and rationality of risk analysis method by providing additional options for the risk value calculation.

A Case Study on the Estimation of the Risk based on Statistics (산업재해통계기반 Risk 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Jong-Gwon;Lee, Mi-Jeong;Seol, Mun-Su;Baek, Jong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2021
  • Risk assessment techniques are processes used to evaluate hazardous risk factors in construction sites, facilities, raw materials, machinery, and equipment, and to estimate the size of risk that could lead to injury or disease, and establish countermeasures. The most important thing in assessing risk is calculating the size of the risk. If the size of the risk cannot be calculated objectively and quantitatively, all members who participated in the evaluation would passively engage in establishing and implementing appropriate measures. Therefore, this study focused on predicting accidents that are expected to occur in the future based on past occupational accident statistics, and quantifying the size of the risk in an overview. The technique employed in this study differs from other risk assessment techniques in that the subjective elements of evaluators were excluded as much as possible by utilizing past occupational accident statistics. This study aims to calculate the size of the risk, regardless of evaluators, such as a manager, supervisor, safety manager, or employee. The size of the risk is the combination of the likelihood and severity of an accident. In this study, the likelihood of an accident was evaluated using the theory of Bud Accident Chainability, and the severity of an accident was calculated using the occupational accident statistics over the past five years according to the accident classification by the International Labor Organization.

A Study on the Correlation between Shiphandler's Subjective Evalution and Maneuvering Risk in Curved Narrow channel (굴곡된 협수로 통항에서 조선자의 주관적 위험감지도와 조종위험도와의 상관 관계에 관한 기초 연구)

  • 이동섭;윤점동;정태권
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.2 no.S1
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 1996
  • The assesment of the safety of ship's transit in a curved narrow channl consists of the maneuvering safety determined by the chance of running aground, the maneuvering difficulty determined by shop's workload, and shiphandler's subjective evaluation. In this study to examine the correlation between shiphandler's subjectice evaluation and the maneuvering risk, the real-time and full-mission shiphandling simulator in the Korean Marine Training & Research Institutes(KMTRI) was utilized. In the conning bridge of the shiphandling simulator, 50 experienced masters conducted masters conducted the modeled vessel of 60,000 deadweight tonnage along the designed channel under 3 different envrinmental conditions. The findings were as follows: (1) The frequencies of stress levels, work difficulties, vessel controllability and overall workload of shiphandlers are similar irrespective of environmental conditions and they are able to be represented as shiphandler's subjective evaluation. (2) It is possible to assess and analyze theoretically the correlation between the shiphandler's subjective ecaluation and maneuvering risk each environmental cindition by quantifying the data obtioned from the tests. The results are as follows: ① As the degree of maneuvering risk increases, the shiphandler's subjective evaluation increases sharply near the curvature area of the desgined channel. ② In the area of the curvature of the designed channel, maneuvering risk increases sharply with the danger of running aground under the environmental condition of current and wind comung from the stem.

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A Study on the Correlation between Shiphandler's Subjective Evaluation and Maneuvering Risk in Curved Narrow channel (굴곡된 수로 통항에서 조선자의 주관적 위험감지도와 조종위험도와의 상관관계에 관한 기초 연구)

  • 이동섭;윤점동;정태권
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 1996
  • The assesment of the safety of ship's transit in a curved narrow channel consists of the maneuvering safety determined by the chance of running aground, the maneuvering difficulty determined by ship's workload, and shiphandler's subjective evaluation. In this study to examine the correlation between shiphandler's subjective evaluation and the maneuvering risk, the real-time and full-mission shiphandling simulator in the Korea Marine Training & Research Institutes(KMTRI) was utilized. On the conning bridge of the shiphandling simulator, 50 experienced masters conducted the modeled vessel of 60,000 deadweight tonnage along the designed channel under 3 different environmental conditions. The findings were as follows : (1) The frequencies of stress levels, work difficulties, vessel controllability and overall workload of shiphandlers are similar irrespective of environmental conditions and they are able to be represented as shiphandler's subjective evaluation. (2) It s possible to assess and analyze theoretically the correlation between the shiphandler's subjective evaluation and maneuvering risk under each environmental condition by quantifying the data obtained from the test. The results are as follows : ① As the degree of maneuvering risk increases, the shiphandler's subjective evaluation increases sharply near the curvature area of the designed channel. ② In the area of the curvature of the designed channel, maneuvering risk sincreases sharply with the danger of running aground under the environmental condition of current and wind coming from the stern.

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A Statistical Methodology Study for Measuring Privacy Disclosure Riskin Open Data Environment (오픈 데이터 환경에서 개인정보 노출 위험 측정을 위한 통계적 방법론 연구)

  • Sieun Kim;Ieck-chae Euom
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.323-333
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    • 2024
  • Recently, Syntheic data has been in the spotlight as a technology that can protect personal information while maintaining the patterns and characteristics of actual data. Accordingly, technical and institutional research on synthetic data is actively being conducted, but it is difficult to actively use synthetic data due to the lack of clear standards and guidelines. This study is a preliminary study for quantifying the disclosure risk of synthetic data, and derives a privacy disclosure risk index through statistical methodology and suggests specific application measures to comply with the General Data Protection Regulation(GDPR). It is expected that the disclosure risk and the balance of data utility can be controlled through the privacy disclosure risk index of this study in an open data environment.

A Study on Quantitative Risk Assessment Method and Risk Reduction Measures for Rail Hazardous Material Transportation (철도위험물수송에 관한 위험도 정량화방안 및 경감대책 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Gon;Cho, Woncheol;Lee, Tae Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2008
  • The object of this study is to develop a tool for quantifying risks related to the rail transportation of hazardous commodities and to present mitigation measures. In this study, the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is used as a risk analysis tool. Based on the previous explosion history (Iri explosion) and consideration of its high risk, Iksan-si is selected as a model city. The result, expressed as average individual risk for exposed people with various distance, indicates that the model city is considered to be safe according to the nuclear energy standard. Also, the mitigation measures are provided since Societal risk of Iksan-si is set within ALARP. Risk reduction measures include rail car design, rail transportation operation, demage spread control as well as derail prevention and alternative routes for reducing accident frequencies. Finally, it is expected to achieve high level of public safety by appling the risk reduction measures.

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A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept (확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Taehui;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2017
  • Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

Risk Assessment of Escherichia coli Infection from Use of Interactive Waterscape Facilities (수경시설 물놀이에 따른 대장균 감염의 위해도 분석)

  • Zo, Young-Gun
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: With the goal of quantifying the risk of children contracting gastroenteritis while playing at interactive waterscape facilities and evaluating the adequacy of current water quality regulations, risk assessment was performed with Escherichia coli as pathogen. Methods: Abundances of E. coli in the waters of interactive water features in South Korea were acquired from survey reports. A gamma distribution describing the volume of water swallowed by children during swimming activities was adopted. Exposure rate and risk were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and dose-response models for various pathogenic E. coli. Results: E. coli was detected in 25 out of 40 facilities, with range of ~1,600 CFU/100 ml. The abundance fitted an exponential distribution. Simulated exposures ranged ${\sim}1.9{\times}10^{10}$ CFU, varying greater along E. coli abundance than the volume of water. Risk of children being infected by enterohemorrhagic E. coli was high, with range of ~0.85. When E. coli abundance was <200 CFU/100 ml, which is the current government threshold, the risk decreased to <0.43. Although the guideline successfully reduced the risk of adults being infected by a less virulent E. coli strains (<0.03), the risk for children could not be quantified due to lack of dose-response models for those pathogens for children. Conclusions: Under the current guideline, children are at risk of being infected if water is contaminated with by enterohemorrhagic E. coli. For other E. coli strains, the risk appears to be considerably less. The result warrants need for developing dose-response models for children for each pathogenic E. coli strain.