• Title/Summary/Keyword: prospect theory

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Prospect for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China by Comparing of the U.S-Japan Relationship in the World WarII Era and the Modern U.S-China Relationship (태평양 전쟁 전 미일관계와 현재의 미중관계 비교를 통한 미중간 전쟁 발발 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-sung
    • Strategy21
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    • s.40
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    • pp.37-81
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    • 2016
  • This paper aims to use crossover analysis to uncover similarities and differences between the U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era and the modern U.S-China relationship, and to forecast the possibility of the outbreak of war between U.S and China by applying the steps to war theory. The steps to war theory argues that the probability of the outbreak of war between two states within five years would approach 90 percent, if they have ongoing territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, and arms race. The comparison exposes some similarities with the territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, but reveals dissimilarities with arms race. U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era had the arms race, which does not exist the modern U.S-China Relationship. The result of comparison is that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China correspond to third stage(Risk Level). it means that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is 55%. But, There are four elements(① Perception of Leader ② Mutual dependence of economy ③ Possession of nuclear weapon ④ Ravages of war) that reduce the probability for the Outbreak of War. Considering the four elements, the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is a slim chance. But the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is excluded because of territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry. So, This paper suggests three points.(① Developing military options ② Reducing the misconception of intend, ③ Promoting navy exchanges) to prevent of Outbreak of War.

The study on software firm's catch-up Innovation Pattern: Focus on case study between Korean and U.S. Open Source Software Firms (소프트웨어 기업의 기술추격 과정 연구: 한국과 미국의 오픈 소스 소프트웨어 기업의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Joo, ChulHwee;Lee, Heesang
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.109-139
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study attempt to examine the prospect whether conventional catch-up theory is also applicable to knowledge intensive industry like Open Source Software(OSS), and the implication from this study can be working as a stepping stone for followers. To do this, we conducted Korean SW firm's interview, and examined U.S. firm's archivings and second source of informations by means of empirical study. We use the inflection point of paradigm shift and difference of technology regime as a framework for empirical study of catch-up process between U.S. and Korean OSS firms. We find that conventional catch-up theory is no more applicable to explain OSS firm's catch-up processes. We also identified the elements that will accelerate the catch-up processes more effectively from the comparison of technology regime between U.S. and Korean OSS firms. As a result, we diagnose the limitation of conventional catch-up theory and discuss the new technology regime which will, ironically, promote the catch-up processes from the condition of low appropriation.

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An Empirical Study on the Effect of Respondent Bias in PSM : Case in Apartment Pricing (PSM 가격평가 주체에 따른 아파트 가격결정 효용성 실증연구)

  • Cho, Han-Jin;Kim, Jong-Lim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2016
  • PSM is widely used pricing tool in field by the reason of data collection convenience and analytical intuitiveness. However, In high involvement environment, strategic respondent bias influence in reducing the price. By using 3 empirical cases of LH apartment for sale, We found that latent consumers' recognition of the range of acceptable and the range of optimal price are lower than real estate agent representative respondents'. This phenomenon is considered loss aversion effect of prospect theory to reduce loss by reducing price, and more influenced in high involvement situation than latent consumer respondents'. Also we found PSM result using real estate representative data is more useful in real market than latent consumers data distorted by loss aversion effects. The meaning of this study is finding some limitation in PSM using consumer data generally used. In further study, development of PSM measurement tool to minimize the effect of strategic bias are need to be studied. Also some new approaches in reinterpretation of the range of acceptable price and the range of optimal price are need to be followed.

A Study on the Future Prospect for Establishing the True Donghak Phase of Daesoon Thought (대순사상의 참동학 위상정립을 위한 미래관 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-hwan
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.29
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    • pp.1-36
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this article is to investigate the future prospects for establishing the True Donghak phase of Daesoon Thought. The True Donghak refers to 'the future prospect of having a true life, true thinking, and true living' in which enjoying the world in a state of good fortune became a true reality after the death of Suwun, according to faith in Gucheon Sangje. The correlation between "Attending to the Lord of Heaven" in Donghak, and "The Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth" in Daesoon shows the prospect of achieving the Daesoonist transformation into energy to gain true life and re-creation. The correlation between "Nourishing the Lord of Heaven" in Donghak and "Attending to Study and Attending to Law" in Daesoon show the transformation of Daesoon-reason into true thinking and renewing. The correlation between "Humanity is Divine" in Donghak and "The Salvation of Humanity is the Will of Heaven" in Daesoon show transformation into the practice of Daesoon for the true living and renewing. This investigation utilizes the literature review and the generation theory of life-philosophy to examine revelations regarding the conversation between Spirit and Mind. This is the future prospect for the establishing the True Donghak phase of Daesoon thought. It consists of a threefold connection among life, thinking, and living. The "public-centered spirituality of Daesoon Truth" which connects and mediates among people appears in three aspects. Firstly, it is thought to be the vision of the true life through the 'renewal of active, energetic power' bestowed by Gucheon Sangje. Secondly, it is thought to be the vision of true thinking through the "renewal via freedom from delusion". Thirdly, it is thought to be the vision of true living through the "renewal of true mind". To bring about the creation of true Donghak, Gucheon Sangje incarnated to the Korean peninsula instead of Suwun and the salvation of the world salvation now centers on Korea with regards to the threefold connection future prospect. Gucheon Sangje's revelation addresses and solves the postscript problem of Chosun and further establishes a Utopia. Suwun established Donghak but failed later on due to his lankiness. At last the true Donghak has been opened for the future by Gucheon Sangje and Jeongsan's fifty years of religious accomplishments. In the long run, it has been developed further by Woodang's Daesoon Jinrihoe.

A Study on the Balance of Power and Changes in Military Strength in Northeast Asia: Prospect of the Northeast Asian Security Environment in 2030 Based on the Balance of Power Theory (동북아시아의 세력균형과 군사력 수준 변화 연구: 세력균형이론에 기초한 2030년경의 동북아시아 안보환경 전망)

  • Kim, Myung-soo
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.73-114
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the distribution of power in Northeast Asia based on the balance of power theory, a representative theory of realism, assuming military capabilities as the core power of states. The results of previous studies on the balance of power and military forces are reviewed and used to analyze changes in the strength of the US, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea through 2020 to predict the security environment in 2030. In the balance of power theory, if the balance of power between a nation or a group of powers collapses, the possibility of war is high, and to survive in the international community with high uncertainty and distrust, the theory predicts that states must increase their powers in a self-help world and strengthen cooperation and alliance. Countries in Northeast Asia are also continuing to strengthen their military capabilities, and countries neighboring China are paying keen attention and remaining vigilant due to the rapid changes in the international security environment after the rapid rise of China. To mark the future 100th anniversary of the Chinese armed forces in the 2030s, China aims to realize 'defense and military modernization' and build a 'world-class military force' by the nation's 100th anniversary in the 2050s. The US is busy checking China's rise by strengthening international cooperation and alliances. The security environment and power dynamics in Northeast Asia are slowly changing as the US and China continue to compete for global hegemony. The changes and implications of the distribution of power in Northeast Asia after 2030 are examined based on the balance of power theory.

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Conceptual Relationship between Elements of Spatial Expression and Proxemics - Focused on the Case of Total Healing Environment of Children's Hospital - (공간표현요소와 프로세믹스 개념 간의 연관성 - 어린이 병원의 총체적치유환경사례 중심으로 -)

  • Woo, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2014
  • This papers is to find out the design theory of total healing environment through the studies on the mutually complementary roles of proxemics, which is the objective and numerical design indicator in the analysis of space and the spacial expression theory, which is the subjective and intuitive design indicator. 3 factors in the elements of total healing environment have the following relationship. And 8 behavioral affordance factors in the elements of spatial expression have the following mutual relationships; The physical factor of total healing environment has the relation with the work&study(+) and circulation(+), the psychological factor has the relationship with the rest(-),visual sequence(-),social exchange(+),refreshment(-) and meditation(-). In addition, the social factor of total healing environment has the relation with the circulation(+),social exchange(+) and community(+). And the work&study(+) and rest(-) of the refuge have the relation with the intimate distance and personal distance, the circulation (+) and visual sequence (-) of the flow has the relationship with the social distance. In addition, the social exchange (+) and the refreshment (-) of the prospect have the relation with the near public distance and the community (+) and meditation (-) of the void have the relation with the far public distance. According to the analysis, the cases in 5 children hospital were studied and the characteristics of total healing environment was evaluated for the spatial proxemics.

(ro)Bot as media An experimental discussion on news chatbot (미디어로서의 봇(bot) 뉴스 챗봇에 대한 시론적 논의)

  • Oh, Se Wook
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.79
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    • pp.70-103
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    • 2016
  • In the face of crisis in the news media industry, many people prospect that new technology can save it. But there is no discussion about how new technology works and what is its limitations and which direction of development is needed. In view of media, this article analyzed 'news chatbot' as new technology. Firstly, this article defined bot and discussed bot's agency based on actor network theory. Secondly, it analysed bots which are acting as media and discussed features of the messenger platform as a communication tool. Thirdly, it presents examples of news chatbot and analyzed how they work. Finally, it predicts the future of news chatbot and discussed the possibility of journalism.

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Study on the Internet Industry Structure under the NgN Regime-Competitive Landscape of ISPs, CPs, and CDNs (디지털 컨버전스 인프라로서의 NgN 환경에서 인터넷 산업구조 : ISP, CP, CDN 사업자간 경쟁을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.243-257
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    • 2006
  • ITU-T's NgN(Next generation Network) architecture is expected to offer a new Internet platforms such as QoS(Quality of Service) guaranteed services as it overcame the limitations of the existing best-effort Internet architecture. However, policy development crucial for the NgN framework(e.g., interconnections and billing) is lagging far behind technology development. For example, arguments over network neutrality clearly indicate little understanding of the Internet industry structure where diverse providers including ISP and CP coexist. This study employs a network economics approach to predict how the competitive landscape involving various providers will evolve under the traffic-based billing system under the NgN environment. Applied is the non-cooperative game theory, in particular, Stackelberg's repeated game in order to build and analyze model for competition among those providers. We also studied possible impacts that CPs would have on the competitive landscape if they have an option to replace ISP: i.e., CDN(Content Delivery Network) provider. Lastly, based on the model analysis and experiments, presented are their implications to policy development and tile future prospect.

Discussion, prospect theory about FTA (America and South Korea) (한미 FTA 논의동향과 전망)

  • Shin, Jai-Gi
    • The Journal of Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2006
  • Currently there is fast flow of America and South Korea FTA negotiation being issued. Aim of FTA, by having free trade between two countries to gain their economical benefit. Few benefits can be expected by Korea joining FTA with America It will increase export as well as increase in overseas investment and this will lead to booming of services industry. After America and Korea FTA Discussion being announced around the world, Australia and EU also has interest of doing FTA with South Korea, which mean that America and Korea FTA has effect of bring in the overseas interest of FTA to South Korea. Expectation of American can be, create the market in South Korea to gain benefit as well as able to check out the economical issue of north east Asia country such as China and Japan. Since American side has high agreement with the make FTA with South Korea, South Korea now has to make own decision about this matter. Since Korean economy highly influence by world trade, to survive from market competition with China and Japan, Korea must involve in Free trade with world.

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A Construction Theory of Arithmetic Operation Unit Systems over $GF(2^m)$ ($GF(2^m)$ 상의 산술연산기시스템 구성 이론)

  • 박춘명;김흥수
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.910-920
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    • 1990
  • This paper presents a method of constructing an Arithmetic Operation Unit Systems (A.O.U.S.) over Galois Field GF(2**m) for the purpose of the four arithmetical operation(addition, subtraction, multiplication and division between two elements in GF(2**mm). The proposed A.O.U.S. is constructed by following procedure. First of all, we obtained each four arithmetical operation algorithms for performing the four arithmetical operations using by mathematical properties over GF(2**m). Next, for the purpose of realizing the four arithmetical unit module (adder module, subtracter module, multiplier module and divider module), we constructed basic cells using the four arithmetical operation algorithms. Then, we realized the four Arithmetical Operation Unit Modules(A.O.U.M.) using basic cells and we constructd distributor modules for the purpose of merging A.O.U.M. with distributor modules. Finally, we constructed the A.O.U.S. over GF(2**m) by synthesizing A.O.U.M. with distributor modules. We prospect that we are able to construct an Arithmetic & Logical Operation Unit Systems (A.L.O.U.S.) if we will merge the proposed A.O.U.S. in this paper with Logical Operation Unit Systems (L.O.U.S.).

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