• Title/Summary/Keyword: promising technologies

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A Study on the Projection of the IT-based Promising Technologies Utilizing Patent Database (특허 정보를 활용한 IT 유망기술 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Pang-Ryong;Hwang, Sung-Hyun
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.34 no.10B
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    • pp.1021-1030
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    • 2009
  • Advanced countries, in recent, are trying hard to acquire intellectual properties on the promising technologies for prior occupation in the future market. The purpose of this study is to derive the IT-based Promising Technologies and find out their implications, focusing on the US patent market known as the most competitive in the world patent market. In this paper, We give a manipulated definition on the IT-based Promising Technologies and deduct the Promising Technologies based on the definition. To accomplish this purpose, we have utilized the US patents granted for the period 2001-2008 in the IT technology. As a result, we have found that 69 fields are classified as the Promising Technologies among 803 IT fields in a criterion of IPC main-group.

Trends in Technology Roadmap and Exploration of Emerging Technologies for Leading R&D Planning (선도적 R&D 기획을 위한 기술로드맵 및 미래 유망기술 탐색 동향)

  • Y.H. Choi;K.D. Kim;H.S. Chung
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2024
  • As the scale of research and development (R&D) increases, countries and companies are consistently establishing R&D directions to meet strategic goals and market demands as well as roadmaps to increase efficiency through concentration and selection. However, establishing an effective roadmap and discovering promising technologies are challenging under the current numerous technological possibilities and uncertainties. The importance of discovering promising technologies to secure future technological competitiveness is recognized worldwide, and Europe, the United States, and Japan are establishing processes to identify promising future technologies and support related R&D. Methods for discovering promising future technologies can be classified into future social needs analysis, forecasting, surveys, use of expert opinions, and data analysis. We describe the types and limitations of technology roadmaps and investigate the status of domestic and foreign organizations using weak signal search through quantitative data analysis.

Discovering Promising Convergence Technologies Using Network Analysis of Maturity and Dependency of Technology (기술 성숙도 및 의존도의 네트워크 분석을 통한 유망 융합 기술 발굴 방법론)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 2018
  • Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

A study on Technology Push-based Future Weapon System and Core Technology Derivation Methodology (빅데이터분석기반의 기술주도형 미래 국방무기체계 및 핵심기술 도출 방법연구)

  • Kang, Hyunkyu;Park, Yongjun;Park, Jaehun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.225-242
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Recent trends have shown that the usage of big data analysis is becoming the core of identifying promising future technologies and emerging technologies. Accordingly, applying these trends by analyzing defense related data in such sources as journals, articles, and news will provide crucial clues in predicting and identifying core future technologies that can be used to develop creative and unprecedented future weapon systems that could change the warfare. Methods: To identify technology fields that are closely related to the 4th industrial revolution and recent technology development trends, environmental analysis, text mining, and military applicability survey have been included in the process. After the identification of core technologies that are militarily applicable, future weapon systems based on these technologies as well as their operation concepts are suggested. Results: Through the study, 73 important trends, from which 11 mega trends are derived, are identified. These mega trends can be expressed by 13 promising technology fields. From these technology fields, 248 promising future technologies are identified. Afterwards, further assessment is performed, which leads to the selection of 63 core technologies from the pool. These are named as "future defense technologies" which then become the bases for 40 future weapons systems that the military can use. Conclusion: Predicting future technologies using text mining analysis have been attempted by various organizations across the globe, especially in the fields related to the 4th industrial revolution. However, the application of it in the field of defense industry is unprecedented. Therefore, this study is meaningful in that it not only enables the military personnel to see promising future technologies that can be utilized for future weapon system development, but helps one to predict the future defense technologies using the method introduced in the paper.

A Study on the Promising Future Biotechnology (바이오 미래유망 연구분야 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Kam, Ju-Sik;Kim, Moo-Woong;Par, Sang-Dai;Hyun, Byung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.345-368
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    • 2012
  • As science and technology are the core engines of economic and social affairs, it is becoming increasingly necessary to explore new promising technologies in order to secure competitiveness in science and technology with a view to helping upgrade the country's overall competitiveness and promoting industrial development. The governments of major advanced countries provide R&D support for promising future technologies. Even in South Korea, a study is being carried out to set up a model for forecasting future technologies and reinforcing the relevant survey system. This study intends to explore methods of identifying promising future technologies in the bio-science sector, which has emerged as a new growth engine. It will use a text-mining technique to collect and analyze theses in the bio science sector. It will identify key research sectors by analyzing thesis contour lines, and then review promising future key research subjects through in-depth study.

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Technological Assesment on Public R&D Activities (정보통신 공공 R&D 기술성 평가)

  • 여인갑
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.433-439
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we implemented technology assessment on the public R&D activities in IT field in order to select the promising technologies, so called "star technology," making for national industry development. Technology assessment frame in this study included qualitative factors. IT technologies are classified five sector - network, wireless/broadcasting, SW/application/computer/terminal equipment, semiconductor/component. Expert opinion interviews on each field are carried out. Assessment factors consist of technology usefulness and technology competitiveness. In the final analysis, 23 technology items selected as a promising technologies and the results can be used public R&D planning and If industry policy.

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A Study on the Identification of Cutting-Edge ICT-Based Converging Technologies

  • Kim, Pang Ryong;Hwang, Sung Hyun
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.602-612
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    • 2012
  • It is becoming increasingly difficult to identify promising technologies due to the influx of new technologies and the high level of complexity involved in many of these technologies. Identifying promising information and communications technology (ICT)-based converging technologies holds the key to finding new sources of economic growth and forward momentum. The goal of this study is to identify cutting-edge ICT-based converging technologies by examining the latest trends in the US patent market. Analyzing the US patent market, the most competitive of such markets in the world, can yield certain clues about which of the ICT-based converging technologies may be the next revolutionary technologies. For a classification of these technologies, this study follows the International Patent Classification system. As for ICT, there are 58 related fields at the subclass level and 831 fields at the main-group level. For emerging and converging technologies, there are 75 at the main-group level. From these technologies, a final selection for cutting-edge ICT-based converging technologies is made using a composite index reflecting the converging coefficient, emerging coefficient, and technology impact index.

A Research on Planning of Promising Technologies in Mechanical Engineering: Case of the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials (기계분야 유망기술 기획에 관한 연구: 한국기계연구원의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Oonkyu;Kwak, Kiho;Lee, Sang Min;Lee, Jungho;Park, Sang-Jin
    • Transactions of the KSME C: Technology and Education
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.273-283
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we suggested the methodology and the results of planning of promising technologies in mechanical engineering by focusing on the case of the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials (KIMM). For dedicated commitment to planning of promising technologies, KIMM newly introduced task-force called as 'specialist unit'. In addition, KIMM combined the investigation of external environments with the analysis of internal capabilities of KIMM and utilized the bibliographic coupling analysis in the process of the exploring sub themes. Finally, we provided 8 promising fields and their sub themes in the mechanical engineering. Our study contributed to the strategic development of the main research programs of KIMM. Our findings can be also utilized as the best practice of planning of promising technologies in the field of mechanical engineering.

Determination of Commercialization Potential Through Patent Attribute Assessment in Lithium Ion Battery Technology (특허가치 평가지표 선정을 통한 기술 사업화 가능성 판단 : 리튬이온전지분야)

  • Kim, Wanki
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.240-249
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to identify an assessment system based on multiple patent indices that can predict the likelihood of success in the commercialization of a patented technology in advance. In addition, we examine the effectiveness of our predictive model in identifying valuable technologies early on. We analyzed 3,063 secondary battery technologies patented in the US over the past 10 years. Our analysis identified 22 of the 25 most promising patented technologies, corresponding with the top 50% of industry-patented technologies that directly and indirectly succeeded in commercialization. These results support our claim that it is possible to identify attributes for the assessment of patent commercial potential to a significant degree. Our system presents a useful assessment index in the forecasting and determination of potential commercial success of patented technologies.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.