• Title/Summary/Keyword: projected emissions

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Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

  • Patra, Amlan Kumar
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.592-599
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    • 2014
  • This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-$\grave{a}$-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME) increased by 54.3% (61.5 to $94.9{\times}10^9kg$ annually) from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR) was noted for goat (2.0%), followed by buffalo (1.57%) and swine (1.53%). Global EME is projected to increase to $120{\times}10^9kg$ by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3%) between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%), followed by buffalo (1.55%), swine (1.28%), sheep (1.25%) and cattle (0.70%). In India, total EME was projected to grow by $18.8{\times}10^9kg$ in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM) increased from $6.81{\times}10^9kg$ in 1961 to $11.4{\times}10^9kg$ in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%), and is projected to grow to $15{\times}10^9kg$ by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from $0.52{\times}10^9kg$ to $1.1{\times}10^9kg$ (with an AGR of 1.57%) in this period, which could increase to $1.54{\times}10^9kg$ in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be $21.4{\times}10^6kg$ in 2050 from $15.3{\times}10^6kg$ in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11%) from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23%) for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%), swine (9.57%) and sheep (7.40%), and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%), buffalo (13.7%) and goat (5.4%). The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010) than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach $3,520{\times}10^9kg$ $CO_2$-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

Time-Series Analysis and Estimation of Prospect Emissions and Prospected Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chungbuk (온실가스 배출량 시계열 분석과 전망 배출량 및 감축 감재량 추정 - 충북을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Okjin;Moon, Yun Seob;Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2022
  • In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

Projection of Circum-Arctic Features Under Climate Change (미래 기후 변화 시나리오에 따른 환북극의 변화)

  • Lee, Ji Yeon;Cho, Mee-Hyun;Koh, Youngdae;Kim, Baek-Min;Jeong, Jee-Hoon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated future changes in the Arctic permafrost features and related biogeochemical alterations under global warming. The Community Land Model (CLM) with biogeochemistry (BGC) was run for the period 2005 to 2099 with projected future climate based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario. Under global warming, over the Arctic land except for the permafrost region, the rise in soil temperature led to an increase in soil liquid and decrease in soil ice. Also, the Arctic ground obtained carbon dioxide from the atmosphere due to the increase in photosynthesis of vegetation. On the other hand, over the permafrost region, the microbial respiration was increased due to thawing permafrost, resulting in increased carbon dioxide emissions. Methane emissions associated with total water storage have increased over most of Arctic land, especially in the permafrost region. Methane releases were predicted to be greatly increased especially near the rivers and lakes associated with an increased chance of flooding. In conclusion, at the end of $21^{st}$ century, except for permafrost region, the Arctic ground is projected to be the sink of carbon dioxide, and only permafrost region the source of carbon dioxide. This study suggests that thawing permafrost can further to accelerate global warming significantly.

Structural Change and Green Growth in Korea, 1980~2020 (한국의 구조적 변화와 녹색성장)

  • Kim, Yong Jin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2012
  • Greenhouse gas emission policy in Korea and elsewhere is based on emissions projections, a key element of which is the projected path of structural change from high productivity growth to low productivity growth economic sectors given sector specific labor productivity growth, emissions abatement across sectors and population growth. Thus, it is important to model the source of the structural change to forecast emissions correctly. Using data for the Korean economy, this study constructs and quantitatively evaluates a model of structural change and green growth to generate policy implications for Korea and the international greenhouse gas debate.

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Econometric Estimation of the Climate Change Policy Effect in the U.S. Transportation Sector

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • Over the past centuries, industrialization in developed and developing countries has had a negative impact on global warming, releasing $CO_2$ emissions into the Earth's atmosphere. In recent years, the transportation sector, which emits one-third of total $CO_2$ emissions in the United States, has adapted by implementing a climate change action plan to reduce $CO_2$ emissions. Having an environmental policy might be an essential factor in mitigating the man-made global warming threats to protect public health and the coexistent needs of current and future generations; however, to my best knowledge, no research has been conducted in such a context with appropriate statistical validation process to evaluate the effects of climate change policy on $CO_2$ emission reduction in recent years in the U.S. transportation. The empirical findings using an entity fixed-effects model with valid statistical tests show the positive effects of climate change policy on $CO_2$ emission reduction in a state. With all the 49 states joining the climate change action plans, the U.S. transportation sector is expected to reduce its $CO_2$ emissions by 20.2 MMT per year, and for the next 10 years, the cumulated $CO_2$ emission reduction is projected to reach 202.3 MMT, which is almost equivalent to the $CO_2$ emissions from the transportation sector produced in 2012 by California, the largest $CO_2$ emission state in the nation.

The Comparison of Certified Emission Reductions Forecasting Model Using Price of Certified Emission Reductions and Related Search Keywords (탄소배출권 가격과 연관검색어를 활용한 탄소배출권 가격 예측 방법론 비교)

  • Kim, Hyeonho;Im, Giseong;Kim, Yujin;Lee, Minwoo;Han, Seungwoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.44-45
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    • 2020
  • Korea has the fourth highest CO2 emission among OECD countries in 2018, As of 2019, total greenhouse gas emissions per capita increased by about 98.2% in comparison to 1990. Korea has promised a 37% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 from the projected Paris Climate Change Accord. Currently, many countries use the emissions trading system(ETS) for international carbon management. In 2015, ETS has been implemented in Korea, and the importance of calculating CO2 emissions from construction machinery has increased. So, we require an accurate calculation of the environmental charges through the allocated CERs. Using the CER price and related search keywords, this paper derive about prediction models of CER price and compare and focus on more accurate prediction about CER price. By this method, the budget needed to establish the initial construction process plan can be calculated based on more accurate predicted CER price.

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Indicators of Economic Evaluation and Case Studies on New & Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 경제성 평가 결과 분석 및 평가지표 연구)

  • Ahn Eun-Young;Kim Seong-Yong
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.600-603
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    • 2005
  • U.S. National Research Council proposed benefits framework for energy R&D project as economic benefits, environmental benefits, security benefits and knowledge benefits. Following this framework, U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory evaluated the projected benefits of Federal Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Programs in the indicators of energy-expenditure savings, energy system cost savings, $CO_2$ emissions reductions. oil savings, natural gas saving and avoided additions to central conventional power. As this result, geothermal energy have predominant position in the energy-expenditure savings, natural gas saving and avoided addi t ions to central conventional power to FY2050. The projected benefits, in monetary value, of the whole supply-potential of geothermal energy in Korea were evaluated as 480.2 billion Won, 43.1 billion Won and 135.8 billion Won for the private energy-cost savings, social environmental-cost savings, and import energy-cost saving, respectively.

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A study on the approach to reduce in the aviation GHG emissions in Korea (항공온실가스 배출현황 및 감축규제 대응방안)

  • Lee, Juhyoung;kim, Wonho;Kim, Yongseok;Choi, Sungwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2016
  • Global aviation is projected to grow in demand by an annual average of 4.1% between 2014 and 2034. It can be said that environmental impact from aviation will therefore be expected to increase on a similar scale. As regards civil aviation emissions, the sector contributes between 2~3% to International aviation GHG emissions. In the European Union(EU), aviation emissions account for about 3% of the EU's total green house gas emissions, of which a majority are said to come from international flights. In terms of traffic volume in 2013, Korea's international aviation industry 11th with regard to passengers and 3rd with regard to cargo, attaining the overall rank of 5th in the world. GHG emissions has been increasing steadily over the last 4 years, averaging 3.9 percent a year, due to the growth of low cost carriers and the increased demand for air transportations. As for aviation in Korea, there are a number of means intended to attain the Government's emission control objective in an efficient manner, such as AVA (Agreement of Voluntary Activity), TMS (Target Management System) and ETS (Emission Trading Scheme). In addition, the Government intends to better adapt to ICAO's Global MBM(Market-based Measures) that will come into performance on Year 2020. In the study, we focused on GHG mitigation measures that is fulfilling the AVA, TMS, ETS in the Government and suggest the effective measures to reduction the aviation GHG emissions.

Unlocking the Future of a Prosperous Green Globe: With a Focus on the G-20 STI Summit

  • Choi, Young-sik
    • STI Policy Review
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2010
  • Energy consumption is the largest contributing factor for the increase of $CO_2$ emissions and amounts for almost 85% of all emissions. The future energy consumption of Korea is projected to grow exponentially despite its heavy dependence on imported energy that represents 97% of its total energy supply. According to a recent OECD report the carbon emission level of Korea is currently ranked 9th in $CO_2$ emissions, and is growing by almost 3% every year. Against this background, the Korean government introduced the "low carbon green growth" policy in 2008. As the global challenges intensified in the wake of the world economic crisis, Korea has been working hard in raising the visibility of its efforts at the club governance meetings, in particular the G-20 summit. Because of cooperative efforts with major member countries, the G-20 summit agenda has been significantly diversified to include long-term issues such as climate change, development issues, and global health. To achieve an effective green recovery for a new green world economic order, the G-20 summit leaders should concentrate on a strategy of establishing green governance for a global STI cooperation. Korea as the host country is poised to leverage the Seoul G-20 summit to catalyze global efforts toward a new green economic order.

Beyond Net Zero - SOM's Urban Sequoia Building Concept and Technologies for Future, Regenerative Cities

  • Mina Hasman;Jiejing Zhou;Alice Guarisco;Nicholas Chan;Alessandro Beghini;Zhaofan Li;Michael Cascio;Yasemin Kologlu
    • International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2023
  • Cities cover only 3% of the planet's surface, yet they are responsible for more than 75% of the global emissions. Given the projected urban built area will double by 2060, the carbon emitted from cities will further increase. SOM proposes the Urban Sequoia concept, for buildings that go beyond 'net zero' and absorb carbon from the atmosphere. This concept combines multiple strategies, including the use of an optimised building form with a highly efficient structural system, modularized prefabrication techniques, holistic integration of facade, MEP and interiors' components, bio-based materials, and Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, to reduce a 40-storey building's whole life cycle carbon emissions by more than 300% over a 100-year lifespan. Calculations of embodied carbon emissions are performed with SOM's in-house Environmental Analysis (EA) Tool to demonstrate the effectiveness of employing Urban Sequoia's design strategies in the design of new buildings using current technologies.