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The Research on Online Game Hedonic Experience - Focusing on Moderate Effect of Perceived Complexity - (온라인 게임에서의 쾌락적 경험에 관한 연구 - 지각된 복잡성의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jong-Ho;Jung, Yun-Hee
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.147-187
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    • 2008
  • Online game researchers focus on the flow and factors influencing flow. Flow is conceptualized as an optimal experience state and useful explaining game experience in online. Many game studies focused on the customer loyalty and flow in playing online game, In showing specific game experience, however, it doesn't examine multidimensional experience process. Flow is not construct which show absorbing process, but construct which show absorbing result. Hence, Flow is not adequate to examine multidimensional experience of games. Online game is included in hedonic consumption. Hedonic consumption is a relatively new field of study in consumer research and it explores the consumption experience as a experiential view(Hirschman and Holbrook 1982). Hedonic consumption explores the consumption experience not as an information processing event but from a phenomenological of experiential view, which is a primarily subjective state. It includes various playful leisure activities, sensory pleasures, daydreams, esthetic enjoyment, and emotional responses. In online game experience, therefore, it is right to access through a experiential view of hedonic consumption. The objective of this paper was to make up for lacks in our understanding of online game experience by developing a framework for better insight into the hedonic experience of online game. We developed this framework by integrating and extending existing research in marketing, online game and hedonic responses. We then discussed several expectations for this framework. We concluded by discussing the results of this study, providing general recommendation and directions for future research. In hedonic response research, Lacher's research(1994)and Jongho lee and Yunhee Jung' research (2005;2006) has served as a fundamental starting point of our research. A common element in this extended research is the repeated identification of the four hedonic responses: sensory response, imaginal response, emotional response, analytic response. The validity of these four constructs finds in research of music(Lacher 1994) and movie(Jongho lee and Yunhee Jung' research 2005;2006). But, previous research on hedonic response didn't show that constructs of hedonic response have cause-effect relation. Also, although hedonic response enable to different by stimulus properties. effects of stimulus properties is not showed. To fill this gap, while largely based on Lacher(1994)' research and Jongho Lee and Yunhee Jung(2005, 2006)' research, we made several important adaptation with the primary goal of bringing the model into online game and compensating lacks of previous research. We maintained the same construct proposed by Lacher et al.(1994), with four constructs of hedonic response:sensory response, imaginal response, emotional response, analytical response. In this study, the sensory response is typified by some physical movement(Yingling 1962), the imaginal response is typified by images, memories, or situations that game evokes(Myers 1914), and the emotional response represents the feelings one experiences when playing game, such as pleasure, arousal, dominance, finally, the analytical response is that game player engaged in cognition seeking while playing game(Myers 1912). However, this paper has several important differences. We attempted to suggest multi-dimensional experience process in online game and cause-effect relation among hedonic responses. Also, We investigated moderate effects of perceived complexity. Previous studies about hedonic responses didn't show influences of stimulus properties. According to Berlyne's theory(1960, 1974) of aesthetic response, perceived complexity is a important construct because it effects pleasure. Pleasure in response to an object will increase with increased complexity, to an optimal level. After that, with increased complexity, pleasure begins with a linearly increasing line for complexity. Therefore, We expected this perceived complexity will influence hedonic response in game experience. We discussed the rationale for these suggested changes, the assumptions of the resulting framework, and developed some expectations based on its application in Online game context. In the first stage of methodology, questions were developed to measure the constructs. We constructed a survey measuring our theoretical constructs based on a combination of sources, including Yingling(1962), Hargreaves(1962), Lacher (1994), Jongho Lee and Yunhee Jung(2005, 2006), Mehrabian and Russell(1974), Pucely et al(1987). Based on comments received in the pretest, we made several revisions to arrive at our final survey. We investigated the proposed framework through a convenience sample, where participation in a self-report survey was solicited from various respondents having different knowledges. All respondents participated to different degrees, in these habitually practiced activities and received no compensation for their participation. Questionnaires were distributed to graduates and we used 381 completed questionnaires to analysis. The sample consisted of more men(n=225) than women(n=156). In measure, the study used multi-item scales based previous study. We analyze the data using structural equation modeling(LISREL-VIII; Joreskog and Sorbom 1993). First, we used the entire sample(n=381) to refine the measures and test their convergent and discriminant validity. The evidence from both the factor analysis and the analysis of reliability provides support that the scales exhibit internal consistency and construct validity. Second, we test the hypothesized structural model. And, we divided the sample into two different complexity group and analyze the hypothesized structural model of each group. The analysis suggest that hedonic response plays different roles from hypothesized in our study. The results indicate that hedonic response-sensory response, imaginal response, emotional response, analytical response- are related positively to respondents' level of game satisfaction. And game satisfaction is related to higher levels of game loyalty. Additionally, we found that perceived complexity is important to online game experience. Our results suggest that importance of each hedonic response different by perceived game complexity. Understanding the role of perceived complexity in hedonic response enables to have a better understanding of underlying mechanisms at game experience. If game has high complexity, analytical response become important response. So game producers or marketers have to consider more cognitive stimulus. Controversy, if game has low complexity, sensorial response respectively become important. Finally, we discussed several limitations of our study and suggested directions for future research. we concluded with a discussion of managerial implications. Our study provides managers with a basis for game strategies.

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Dry etching of polycarbonate using O2/SF6, O2/N2 and O2/CH4 plasmas (O2/SF6, O2/N2와 O2/CH4 플라즈마를 이용한 폴리카보네이트 건식 식각)

  • Joo, Y.W.;Park, Y.H.;Noh, H.S.;Kim, J.K.;Lee, S.H.;Cho, G.S.;Song, H.J.;Jeon, M.H.;Lee, J.W.
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2008
  • We studied plasma etching of polycarbonate in $O_2/SF_6$, $O_2/N_2$ and $O_2/CH_4$. A capacitively coupled plasma system was employed for the research. For patterning, we used a photolithography method with UV exposure after coating a photoresist on the polycarbonate. Main variables in the experiment were the mixing ratio of $O_2$ and other gases, and RF chuck power. Especially, we used only a mechanical pump for in order to operate the system. The chamber pressure was fixed at 100 mTorr. All of surface profilometry, atomic force microscopy and scanning electron microscopy were used for characterization of the etched polycarbonate samples. According to the results, $O_2/SF_6$ plasmas gave the higher etch rate of the polycarbonate than pure $O_2$ and $SF_6$ plasmas. For example, with maintaining 100W RF chuck power and 100 mTorr chamber pressure, 20 sccm $O_2$ plasma provided about $0.4{\mu}m$/min of polycarbonate etch rate and 20 sccm $SF_6$ produced only $0.2{\mu}m$/min. However, the mixed plasma of 60 % $O_2$ and 40 % $SF_6$ gas flow rate generated about $0.56{\mu}m$ with even low -DC bias induced compared to that of $O_2$. More addition of $SF_6$ to the mixture reduced etch of polycarbonate. The surface roughness of etched polycarbonate was roughed about 3 times worse measured by atomic force microscopy. However examination with scanning electron microscopy indicated that the surface was comparable to that of photoresist. Increase of RF chuck power raised -DC bias on the chuck and etch rate of polycarbonate almost linearly. The etch selectivity of polycarbonate to photoresist was about 1:1. The meaning of these results was that the simple capacitively coupled plasma system can be used to make a microstructure on polymer with $O_2/SF_6$ plasmas. This result can be applied to plasma processing of other polymers.

An Analysis of the Moderating Effects of User Ability on the Acceptance of an Internet Shopping Mall (인터넷 쇼핑몰 수용에 있어 사용자 능력의 조절효과 분석)

  • Suh, Kun-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.27-55
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    • 2008
  • Due to the increasing and intensifying competition in the Internet shopping market, it has been recognized as very important to develop an effective policy and strategy for acquiring loyal customers. For this reason, web site designers need to know if a new Internet shopping mall(ISM) will be accepted. Researchers have been working on identifying factors for explaining and predicting user acceptance of an ISM. Some studies, however, revealed inconsistent findings on the antecedents of user acceptance of a website. Lack of consideration for individual differences in user ability is believed to be one of the key reasons for the mixed findings. The elaboration likelihood model (ELM) and several studies have suggested that individual differences in ability plays an moderating role on the relationship between the antecedents and user acceptance. Despite the critical role of user ability, little research has examined the role of user ability in the Internet shopping mall context. The purpose of this study is to develop a user acceptance model that consider the moderating role of user ability in the context of Internet shopping. This study was initiated to see the ability of the technology acceptance model(TAM) to explain the acceptance of a specific ISM. According to TAM. which is one of the most influential models for explaining user acceptance of IT, an intention to use IT is determined by usefulness and ease of use. Given that interaction between user and website takes place through web interface, the decisions to accept and continue using an ISM depend on these beliefs. However, TAM neglects to consider the fact that many users would not stick to an ISM until they trust it although they may think it useful and easy to use. The importance of trust for user acceptance of ISM has been raised by the relational views. The relational view emphasizes the trust-building process between the user and ISM, and user's trust on the website is a major determinant of user acceptance. The proposed model extends and integrates the TAM and relational views on user acceptance of ISM by incorporating usefulness, ease of use, and trust. User acceptance is defined as a user's intention to reuse a specific ISM. And user ability is introduced into the model as moderating variable. Here, the user ability is defined as a degree of experiences, knowledge and skills regarding Internet shopping sites. The research model proposes that the ease of use, usefulness and trust of ISM are key determinants of user acceptance. In addition, this paper hypothesizes that the effects of the antecedents(i.e., ease of use, usefulness, and trust) on user acceptance may differ among users. In particular, this paper proposes a moderating effect of a user's ability on the relationship between antecedents with user's intention to reuse. The research model with eleven hypotheses was derived and tested through a survey that involved 470 university students. For each research variable, this paper used measurement items recognized for reliability and widely used in previous research. We slightly modified some items proper to the research context. The reliability and validity of the research variables were tested using the Crobnach's alpha and internal consistency reliability (ICR) values, standard factor loadings of the confirmative factor analysis, and average variance extracted (AVE) values. A LISREL method was used to test the suitability of the research model and its relating six hypotheses. Key findings of the results are summarized in the following. First, TAM's two constructs, ease of use and usefulness directly affect user acceptance. In addition, ease of use indirectly influences user acceptance by affecting trust. This implies that users tend to trust a shopping site and visit repeatedly when they perceive a specific ISM easy to use. Accordingly, designing a shopping site that allows users to navigate with heuristic and minimal clicks for finding information and products within the site is important for improving the site's trust and acceptance. Usefulness, however, was not found to influence trust. Second, among the three belief constructs(ease of use, usefulness, and trust), trust was empirically supported as the most important determinants of user acceptance. This implies that users require trustworthiness from an Internet shopping site to be repeat visitors of an ISM. Providing a sense of safety and eliminating the anxiety of online shoppers in relation to privacy, security, delivery, and product returns are critically important conditions for acquiring repeat visitors. Hence, in addition to usefulness and ease of use as in TAM, trust should be a fundamental determinants of user acceptance in the context of internet shopping. Third, the user's ability on using an Internet shopping site played a moderating role. For users with low ability, ease of use was found to be a more important factors in deciding to reuse the shopping mall, whereas usefulness and trust had more effects on users with high ability. Applying the EML theory to these findings, we can suggest that experienced and knowledgeable ISM users tend to elaborate on such usefulness aspects as efficient and effective shopping performance and trust factors as ability, benevolence, integrity, and predictability of a shopping site before they become repeat visitors of the site. In contrast, novice users tend to rely on the low elaborating features, such as the perceived ease of use. The existence of moderating effects suggests the fact that different individuals evaluate an ISM from different perspectives. The expert users are more interested in the outcome of the visit(usefulness) and trustworthiness(trust) than those novice visitors. The latter evaluate the ISM in a more superficial manner focusing on the novelty of the site and on other instrumental beliefs(ease of use). This is consistent with the insights proposed by the Heuristic-Systematic model. According to the Heuristic-Systematic model. a users act on the principle of minimum effort. Thus, the user considers an ISM heuristically, focusing on those aspects that are easy to process and evaluate(ease of use). When the user has sufficient experience and skills, the user will change to systematic processing, where they will evaluate more complex aspects of the site(its usefulness and trustworthiness). This implies that an ISM has to provide a minimum level of ease of use to make it possible for a user to evaluate its usefulness and trustworthiness. Ease of use is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the acceptance and use of an ISM. Overall, the empirical results generally support the proposed model and identify the moderating effect of the effects of user ability. More detailed interpretations and implications of the findings are discussed. The limitations of this study are also discussed to provide directions for future research.

Analysis and Improvement Strategies for Korea's Cyber Security Systems Regulations and Policies

  • Park, Dong-Kyun;Cho, Sung-Je;Soung, Jea-Hyen
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.18
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    • pp.169-190
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    • 2009
  • Today, the rapid advance of scientific technologies has brought about fundamental changes to the types and levels of terrorism while the war against the world more than one thousand small and big terrorists and crime organizations has already begun. A method highly likely to be employed by terrorist groups that are using 21st Century state of the art technology is cyber terrorism. In many instances, things that you could only imagine in reality could be made possible in the cyber space. An easy example would be to randomly alter a letter in the blood type of a terrorism subject in the health care data system, which could inflict harm to subjects and impact the overturning of the opponent's system or regime. The CIH Virus Crisis which occurred on April 26, 1999 had significant implications in various aspects. A virus program made of just a few lines by Taiwanese college students without any specific objective ended up spreading widely throughout the Internet, causing damage to 30,000 PCs in Korea and over 2 billion won in monetary damages in repairs and data recovery. Despite of such risks of cyber terrorism, a great number of Korean sites are employing loose security measures. In fact, there are many cases where a company with millions of subscribers has very slackened security systems. A nationwide preparation for cyber terrorism is called for. In this context, this research will analyze the current status of Korea's cyber security systems and its laws from a policy perspective, and move on to propose improvement strategies. This research suggests the following solutions. First, the National Cyber Security Management Act should be passed to have its effectiveness as the national cyber security management regulation. With the Act's establishment, a more efficient and proactive response to cyber security management will be made possible within a nationwide cyber security framework, and define its relationship with other related laws. The newly passed National Cyber Security Management Act will eliminate inefficiencies that are caused by functional redundancies dispersed across individual sectors in current legislation. Second, to ensure efficient nationwide cyber security management, national cyber security standards and models should be proposed; while at the same time a national cyber security management organizational structure should be established to implement national cyber security policies at each government-agencies and social-components. The National Cyber Security Center must serve as the comprehensive collection, analysis and processing point for national cyber crisis related information, oversee each government agency, and build collaborative relations with the private sector. Also, national and comprehensive response system in which both the private and public sectors participate should be set up, for advance detection and prevention of cyber crisis risks and for a consolidated and timely response using national resources in times of crisis.

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A Comparative Study of the Standard Uptake Values of the PET Reconstruction Methods; Using Contrast Enhanced CT and Non Contrast Enhanced CT (PET/CT 영상에서 조영제를 사용하지 않은 CT와 조영제를 사용한 CT를 이용한 감쇠보정에 따른 표준화섭취계수의 비교)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Park, Hoon-Hee;Ahn, Sha-Ron;Oh, Shin-Hyun;NamKoong, Heuk;Lim, Han-Sang;Kim, Jae-Sam;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.235-240
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: At the beginning of PET/CT, Computed Tomography was mainly used only for Attenuation Correction (AC), but as the performance of the CT have been increase, it could give improved diagnostic information with Contrast Media. But it was controversial that Contrast Media could affect AC on PET/CT scan. Some submitted thesis' show that Contrast Media could overestimate when it is for AC data processing. On the contrary, the opinion that Contrast Media could be possible to affect the alteration of SUV because of the overestimated AC. But it does not have a definite effect on the diagnosis. Thus, the affection of Contrast Media on AC was investigated in this study. Materials and Methods: Patient inclusion criteria required a history of a malignancy and performance of an integrated PET/CT scan and contrast- enhanced CT scan within a 1-day period. Thirty oncologic patients who had PET/CT scan from December 2007 to June 2008 underwent staging evaluation and met these criteria. All patients fasted for at least 6 hr before the IV injection of approximately 5.6 MBq/kg (0.15 mCi/kg) of $^{18}F$-FDG and were scanned about 60 min after injection. All patients had a whole body PET/CT performed without IV contrast media followed by a contrast-enhanced CT on the Discovery STe PET/CT scanner. CT data were used for AC and PET images came out after AC. The ROIs drew and measured SUV. A paired t-test of these results was performed to assess the significance of the difference between the SUV obtained from the two attenuation corrected PET images. Results: The mean and maximum Standardized Uptake Values (SUV) for different regions averaged over all Patients. Comparing before using Contrast Media and after using, Most of ROIs have the increased SUV when it did Contrast Enhanced CT compare to Non-Contrast enhanced CT. All regions have increased SUV and also their p value was under 0.05 except the mean SUV of the Heart region. Conclusion: In this regard, the effect on SUV measurements that occurs when a contrast-enhanced CT is used for attenuation correction could have significant clinical ramifications. But some submitted thesis insisted that the percentage change in SUV that can determine or modify clinical management of oncology patients is small. Because there was not much difference that could be discovered by interpreter. But obviously the numerical change was occurred and on the stage finding primary region, small change would be base line, such as the region of liver which has greater change than the other regions needs more attention.

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Studies on the N-compounds during Chung-Kook-Jang Meju Fermentation (1) -Changes of Soybean Protein during Chung-Kook-Jang Meju Fermentation- (청국장(淸國醬) 메주 발효과정중(醱酵過程中)의 질소화합물(窒素化合物)의 소장(消長)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(I)-대두단백질(大豆蛋白質)의 소장(消長)에 관(關)하여-)

  • Park, Ke-In
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.93-109
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    • 1972
  • Three lots of Chung-Kook-Jang were prepared by the use of 2 strains of Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus natto. For four samples taken from each lot in 12 hrs interval changes of nitrogenous compounds, insoluble protein, water soluble protein, peptides, free amino acids, amino and ammonia nitrogens during Chung-Kook-Jang fermentation, were studied together with the changes of moisture, pH, proteolytic enzyme activity. In addition the average peptide length of the peptides of a Bacillus subtilis lot was determined by the method of molecular sieving using ion exchange resin. The results were as follows: 1. The contents of moisture and total-nitrogen changed little in all samples throughout the fermentation as it would be expected. 2. In all three experimental lots the pH became higher gradually from the initial value of 6.65 to the final $7.5{\sim}7.85$ during the fermentation. Proteolytic enzyme activities, in accordance with this pH change, steadily increased up to $48{\sim}60$ hrs. of fermentation and then slightly decreased, probably affected by the high pH. The most strong proteolytic activity was observed in the experimental Chung-Kook-Jang fermentation lot using the Bacillus subtilis K-27 isolated by the author. 3. The contents of insoluble protein nitrogen in soybeans increased markedly (5%) by the cooking, after steeping 12 hrs in water. During the Chung-Kook-Jang fermentation, however, it decreased from 1/2 to 1/10 of that of the cooked soybeans. 4. The contents of water soluble protein nitrogen (5%) whereas, greatly decreased to the value of 1.0% by the cooking; but little changed further during the fermentation, 5. The total contents (0.25%) of peptides, amino, and ammonia-nitrogens, PAA-N., increased almost double by the cooking and steadily became higher as the fermentation proceeded, reaching finally up to$4{\sim}7%$ in 72 hrs fermentation. 6. The amounts of free amino acids of soybean generally decreased during the processing of cooking, even some of them like glutamic acid were destroyed completely, However in the subsequent Chung-Kook-Jang fermentation for 72 hrs., they showed from several to a few hundreds folds increases depending upon the kinds of amino acids. Valine which was contained in HCl-hydrolyzed steeped or cooked soybeans in amounts $220{\sim}267mg%$ was not detected at all as the free amino acid in all fermented samples. 7. Average peptide length (APL) of all fractions, eluted and fractionated by using the Dowex-50 ion exchange resin column, and fraction collector showed the highest value for the cooked soybean and then decreased as the fermentation proceeded. The APL value of effluent showed the highest in 12 hrs fermented sample, The value decreased thereafter by fermentation.

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Quality Characteristics of Kiwi Wine and Optimum Malolactic Fermentation Conditions (참다래 와인의 최적 malolactic fermentation 조건과 품질 특성)

  • Kang, Sang-Dong;Ko, Yu-Jin;Kim, Eun-Jung;Son, Yong-Hwi;Kim, Jin-Yong;Seol, Hui-Gyeong;Kim, Ig-Jo;Cho, Hyoun-Kook;Ryu, Chung-Ho
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.509-514
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    • 2011
  • Maloactic fermentation (MLF) occurs after completion of alcoholic fermentation and is mediated by lactic acid bacteria (LAB), mainly Oenococcus oeni. Kiwi wine more than commercial grape wine has the problem of high acidity. Therefore, we investigated the optimal MLF conditions for regulating strong acidity and improving the quality properties of wine fermented with Kiwi fruit cultivated in Korea. For alcohol fermentation, industrial wine yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae KCCM 12650 strains and LAB, known as MLF strains, were used to alleviate wine acidity. First, the various experimental conditions of Kiwi fruit, initial pH (2.5, 3.5, 4.5), fermenting temperature (20, 25, $30^{\circ}C$), and sugar contents (24 $^{\circ}Brix$), were adjusted, and after the fermentation period, we measured the acidity, pH, and the change in organic acid content by the AOAC method and HPLC analysis. The alcohol content of fermented Kiwi wine was 12.75%. Further, total acidity and pH of Kiwi wine were 0.78% and 3.5, respectively. Total sugar and total polyphenol contents of Kiwi wine were 38.72 mg/ml and 60.18 mg/ml, respectively. With regard to organic acid content, the control contained 0.63 mg/ml of oxalic acid, 2.99 mg/ml of malic acid, and 0.71 mg/ml of lactic acid, whereas MLF wine contained 0.69 mg/ml of oxalic acid, 0.06 mg/ml of malic acid, and 3.12 mg/ml of lactic acid. Kiwi wine had lower malic acid values and total acidity than control after MLF processing. In MLF, the optimum initial pH value and fermentation temperature were 3.5 and $25^{\circ}C$, respectively. Therefore, these studies suggest that establishment of optimal MLF conditions could improve the properties of Kiwi wine manufactured in Korea.

A Study on the Investigation of Sanitary Knowledge and Practice Level of School Foodservice Employees in Jeonju (전주지역 학교급식 조리종사자의 위생지식 및 위생관리 수행에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Eun-Hui;Yang, Hyang-Sook;Shon, Hee-Sook;Rho, Jeong-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.34 no.8
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    • pp.1210-1218
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    • 2005
  • This study was to investigate the sanitary knowledge and its practice level of school foodservice employees in Jeonju area. A total of 508 questionnaires were usable; resulting in 79.0$\%$ response rate. Statistics data analysis was completed using the SPSS 10.0 program. The results of this study were summarized as follow : About 62$\%$ of school foodservice employees were 41 $\∼$50 years old and 84$\%$ of them had a irregular job and they had a sanitation training at least once a month. The school foodservice employees had more knowledge about 'personal hygiene' than that about 'equipment and facilities sanitation', 'foodborn disease and food microorganism' Their hygiene practice level were high for 'equipment and facilities sanitation' (4.90$\pm$0.25) and were lesser in the order from 'foodborn disease and food microorganism'(4.86$\pm$0.30), 'personal sanitation'(4.79$\pm$0.34) and the least for food processing hygiene (4.70$\pm$0.37). As a result of relationship between knowledge and hygiene practice level, knowledge of school foodservice employees was not influenced on tile hygiene practice level during their working.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Pareto Ratio and Inequality Level of Knowledge Sharing in Virtual Knowledge Collaboration: Analysis of Behaviors on Wikipedia (지식 공유의 파레토 비율 및 불평등 정도와 가상 지식 협업: 위키피디아 행위 데이터 분석)

  • Park, Hyun-Jung;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2014
  • The Pareto principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, states that roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes for many events including natural phenomena. It has been recognized as a golden rule in business with a wide application of such discovery like 20 percent of customers resulting in 80 percent of total sales. On the other hand, the Long Tail theory, pointing out that "the trivial many" produces more value than "the vital few," has gained popularity in recent times with a tremendous reduction of distribution and inventory costs through the development of ICT(Information and Communication Technology). This study started with a view to illuminating how these two primary business paradigms-Pareto principle and Long Tail theory-relates to the success of virtual knowledge collaboration. The importance of virtual knowledge collaboration is soaring in this era of globalization and virtualization transcending geographical and temporal constraints. Many previous studies on knowledge sharing have focused on the factors to affect knowledge sharing, seeking to boost individual knowledge sharing and resolve the social dilemma caused from the fact that rational individuals are likely to rather consume than contribute knowledge. Knowledge collaboration can be defined as the creation of knowledge by not only sharing knowledge, but also by transforming and integrating such knowledge. In this perspective of knowledge collaboration, the relative distribution of knowledge sharing among participants can count as much as the absolute amounts of individual knowledge sharing. In particular, whether the more contribution of the upper 20 percent of participants in knowledge sharing will enhance the efficiency of overall knowledge collaboration is an issue of interest. This study deals with the effect of this sort of knowledge sharing distribution on the efficiency of knowledge collaboration and is extended to reflect the work characteristics. All analyses were conducted based on actual data instead of self-reported questionnaire surveys. More specifically, we analyzed the collaborative behaviors of editors of 2,978 English Wikipedia featured articles, which are the best quality grade of articles in English Wikipedia. We adopted Pareto ratio, the ratio of the number of knowledge contribution of the upper 20 percent of participants to the total number of knowledge contribution made by the total participants of an article group, to examine the effect of Pareto principle. In addition, Gini coefficient, which represents the inequality of income among a group of people, was applied to reveal the effect of inequality of knowledge contribution. Hypotheses were set up based on the assumption that the higher ratio of knowledge contribution by more highly motivated participants will lead to the higher collaboration efficiency, but if the ratio gets too high, the collaboration efficiency will be exacerbated because overall informational diversity is threatened and knowledge contribution of less motivated participants is intimidated. Cox regression models were formulated for each of the focal variables-Pareto ratio and Gini coefficient-with seven control variables such as the number of editors involved in an article, the average time length between successive edits of an article, the number of sections a featured article has, etc. The dependent variable of the Cox models is the time spent from article initiation to promotion to the featured article level, indicating the efficiency of knowledge collaboration. To examine whether the effects of the focal variables vary depending on the characteristics of a group task, we classified 2,978 featured articles into two categories: Academic and Non-academic. Academic articles refer to at least one paper published at an SCI, SSCI, A&HCI, or SCIE journal. We assumed that academic articles are more complex, entail more information processing and problem solving, and thus require more skill variety and expertise. The analysis results indicate the followings; First, Pareto ratio and inequality of knowledge sharing relates in a curvilinear fashion to the collaboration efficiency in an online community, promoting it to an optimal point and undermining it thereafter. Second, the curvilinear effect of Pareto ratio and inequality of knowledge sharing on the collaboration efficiency is more sensitive with a more academic task in an online community.