• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability-based

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A Service Life Prediction for Joint and Cracked Concrete Exposed to Carbonation Based on Stochastic Approach (신뢰성 해석을 통한 탄산화에 노출된 타설이음부 및 균열부 콘크리트의 내구수명 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun;Park, Sang-Sun;Lee, Sang-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.597-600
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    • 2006
  • In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC column in city is carried out and carbonation behavior in sound, joint, and cracked concrete is also analyzed. Futhermore, probability of durability failure with time is calculated through considering probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. The probability of durability failure in cracked concrete with considering crack width and time is also calculated and service life is predicted based on intended failure probability in domestic specification. Through this study, it is known that service life in a RC column is evaluated differently for local conditions and each service life is rapidly decreased with decrease in cover depth and increase in crack width.

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Identification of flexible vehicle parameters on bridge using particle filter method

  • Talukdar, S.;Lalthlamuana, R.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.21-43
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    • 2016
  • A conditional probability based approach known as Particle Filter Method (PFM) is a powerful tool for system parameter identification. In this paper, PFM has been applied to identify the vehicle parameters based on response statistics of the bridge. The flexibility of vehicle model has been considered in the formulation of bridge-vehicle interaction dynamics. The random unevenness of bridge has been idealized as non homogeneous random process in space. The simulated response has been contaminated with artificial noise to reflect the field condition. The performance of the identification system has been examined for various measurement location, vehicle velocity, bridge surface roughness factor, noise level and assumption of prior probability density. Identified vehicle parameters are found reasonably accurate and reconstructed interactive force time history with identified parameters closely matches with the simulated results. The study also reveals that crude assumption of prior probability density function does not end up with an incorrect estimate of parameters except requiring longer time for the iterative process to converge.

Optimized Relay Selection and Power Allocation by an Exclusive Method in Multi-Relay AF Cooperative Networks

  • Bao, Jianrong;Jiang, Bin;Liu, Chao;Jiang, Xianyang;Sun, Minhong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.3524-3542
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    • 2017
  • In a single-source and multi-relay amplify-forward (AF) cooperative network, the outage probability and the power allocation are two key factors to influence the performance of an entire system. In this paper, an optimized AF relay selection by an exclusive method and near optimal power allocation (NOPA) is proposed for both good outage probability and power efficiency. Given the same power at the source and the relay nodes, a threshold for selecting the relay nodes is deduced and employed to minimize the average outage probability. It mainly excludes the relay nodes with much higher thresholds over the aforementioned threshold and thus the remainders of the relay nodes participate in cooperative forwarding efficiently. So the proposed scheme can improve the utility of the resources in the cooperative multi-relay system, as well as reduce the computational complexity. In addition, based on the proposed scheme, a NOPA is also suggested to approach sub-optimal power efficiency with low complexity. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme obtains about 2.1dB and 5.8dB performance gain at outage probability of $10^{-4}$, when compared with the all-relay-forward (6 participated relays) and the single-relay-forward schemes. Furthermore, it obtains the minimum outage probability among all selective relay schemes with the same number of the relays. Meanwhile, it approaches closely to the optimal exhaustive scheme, thus reduce much complexity. Moreover, the proposed NOPA scheme achieves better outage probability than those of the equal power allocation schemes. Therefore, the proposed scheme can obtain good outage probability, low computational complexity and high power efficiency, which makes it pragmatic efficiently in the single-source and multi-relay AF based cooperative networks.

Stochastic Probability Model for Preventive Management of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters (경사제 피복재의 유지관리를 위한 추계학적 확률모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Kim, Sang Ug
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.1007-1015
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    • 2013
  • A stochastic probability model based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process is represented that can correctly analyze the time-dependent linear and nonlinear behaviors of total damage over the occurrence process of loads. Introducing several types of damage intensity functions, the probability of failure and the total damage with respect to mean time to failure has been investigated in detail. Taking particularly the limit state to be the random variables followed with a distribution function, the uncertainty of that would be taken into consideration in this paper. In addition, the stochastic probability model has been straightforwardly applied to the rubble-mound breakwaters with the definition of damage level about the erosion of armor units. The probability of failure and the nonlinear total damage with respect to mean time to failure has been analyzed with the damage intensity functions for armor units estimated by fitting the expected total damage to the experimental datum. Based on the present results from the stochastic probability model, the preventive management for the armor units of the rubble-mound breakwaters would be suggested to make a decision on the repairing time and the minimum amounts repaired quantitatively.

Eigenstructure Assignment Considering Probability of Instability with Flight Control Application

  • Seo, Young-Bong;Choi, Jae-Weon
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.607-613
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    • 2007
  • Eigenstructure assignment provides the advantage of allowing great flexibility in shaping the closed-loop system responses by allowing specification of closed-loop eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors. But, the general eigenstructure assignment methodologies cannot guarantee stability robustness to parameter variations of a system. In this paper, we present a novel method that has the capability of exact assignment of an eigenstructure which can consider the probability of instability for LTI (Linear Time-Invariant) systems. The probability of instability of an LTI system is determined by the probability distributions of the closed-loop eigenvalues. The stability region for the system is made probabilistically based upon the Monte Carlo evaluations. The proposed control design method is applied to design a flight control system with probabilistic parameter variations to confirm the usefulness of the method.

FRACTIONAL EULER'S INTEGRAL OF FIRST AND SECOND KINDS. APPLICATION TO FRACTIONAL HERMITE'S POLYNOMIALS AND TO PROBABILITY DENSITY OF FRACTIONAL ORDER

  • Jumarie, Guy
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.28 no.1_2
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    • pp.257-273
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    • 2010
  • One can construct a theory of probability of fractional order in which the exponential function is replaced by the Mittag-Leffler function. In this framework, it seems of interest to generalize some useful classical mathematical tools, so that they are more suitable in fractional calculus. After a short background on fractional calculus based on modified Riemann Liouville derivative, one summarizes some definitions on probability density of fractional order (for the motive), and then one introduces successively fractional Euler's integrals (first and second kind) and fractional Hermite polynomials. Some properties of the Gaussian density of fractional order are exhibited. The fractional probability so introduced exhibits some relations with quantum probability.

Effect of Boundary Conditions on Failure Probability of Buried Pipeline (매설배관의 경계조건이 파손확률에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Pyun, Jang-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 2001
  • A failure probability model based on Von-Mises failure criterion and the standard normal probability function is proposed. The effects of varying boundary conditions such as internal fluid pressure, external soil, traffic loads, temperature change and corrosion on failure probability of the buried pipes are systematically investigated. To allow for the uncertainties of the design variables, a reliability analysis technique has been adopted; this also allows calculation of the relative contribution of the random variables and the sensitivity of the failure probability.

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Estimation of Failure Probability Using Boundary Conditions of Failure Pressure Model for Buried Pipelines (파손압력모델의 경계조건을 이용한 매설배관의 파손확률 평가)

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Kim, Eui-Sang;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.310-315
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

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An Application of Bayesian Network for Dynamic System Reliability Assessment (동적시스템의 신뢰도 평가를 위한 베이지안망의 적용)

  • Ahn Sun-Eung;Koo Jung-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2004
  • This paper is intended to assess a dynamic system reliability. Bayesian networks, however, have difficulties in their application for assessing the system reliability especially when the system consists of dependent components and the probability of failure of each component varies over time. Hence, we suggest a method for resolving the difficulties by considering a hoist system composed of two wires. Firstly, we explain the method of calculating the failure probability of the system components. Secondly, we show how to calculate the failure probability of the system for two cases that failure probability of each wire is constant and varying in time, respectively. finally, based on the calculated failure probability of the system, we infer the probability that two interesting events occur.

Effect of Boundary Conditions on Failure Probability of Buried Steel Pile (매설된 강 파일의 경계조건이 파손확률에 미치는 영향)

  • 이억섭;편장식;김의상
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.204-213
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    • 2003
  • A survey for finding corrosion examples was performed on the underground steel piles buried for 19 years in the area of iron and steel making factory near Young-il bay. A failure probability model, which can be used to check the reliability of the corrosive mechanical element, based on Von-Mises failure criterion and the standard normal probability function is proposed. The effects of varying boundary conditions such as temperature change, soil-friction, internal pressure, earthquake, loading of soil, traffic loads and corrosion on failure probability of the buried steel piles are systematically investigated. To allow for the uncertainties of the design variables, a reliability analysis technique has been adopted; this also allows calculation of the relative contribution of the random variables and the sensitivity of the failure probability.