• 제목/요약/키워드: probability theory

검색결과 689건 처리시간 0.03초

온라인 확률분포 추정기법을 이용한 확률모델 기반 유도전동기의 고장진단 시스템 (Stochastic Model based Fault Diagnosis System of Induction Motors using Online Probability Density Estimation)

  • 조현철;김광수;이권순
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제57권10호
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    • pp.1847-1853
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents stochastic methodology based fault detection algorithm for induction motor systems. We measure current of healthy induction motors by means of hall sensor systems and then establish its probability distribution. We propose online probability density estimation which is effective in real-time implementation due to its simplicity and low computational burden. In addition, we accomplish theoretical analysis to demonstrate convergence property of the proposed estimation by using statistical convergence and system stability theory. We apply our fault diagnosis approach to three-phase induction motors and achieve real-time experiment for evaluating its reliability and practicability in industrial fields.

Reliability analysis of repairable k-out-n system from time response under several times stochastic shocks

  • Fang, Yongfeng;Tao, Wenliang;Tee, Kong Fah
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.559-567
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    • 2014
  • The model of unit dynamic reliability of repairable k/n (G) system with unit strength degradation under repeated random shocks has been developed according to the stress-strength interference theory. The unit failure number is obtained based on the unit failure probability which can be computed from the unit dynamic reliability. Then, the transfer probability function of the repairable k/n (G) system is given by its Markov property. Once the transfer probability function has been obtained, the probability density matrix and the steady-state probabilities of the system can be retrieved. Finally, the dynamic reliability of the repairable k/n (G) system is obtained by solving the differential equations. It is illustrated that the proposed method is practicable, feasible and gives reasonable prediction which conforms to the engineering practice.

A New Methodology for the Rapid Calculation of System Reliability of Complex Structures

  • Park, Sooyong
    • Architectural research
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2001
  • It is quite difficult to calculate the collapse probability of a system such as statically indeterminate structure that has many possible modes or paths to complete failure and the problem has remained essentially unsolved. A structure is synthesized by several components or elements and its capacity to resist the given loads is a function of the capacity of the individual element. Thus it is reasonable to assess the probability of failure of the system based upon those of its elements. This paper proposes an efficient technique to directly assess the reliability of a complex structural system from the reliabilities of its components or elements. The theory for the calculation of the probability of a structural system is presented. The target requirements of the method and the fundamental assumptions governing the method are clearly stated. A portal frame and two trusses are selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the method by comparing the results obtained from the proposed method to those from the existing methods in the literature.

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신뢰성 이론을 이용한 공급 사슬 시스템의 평가 척도에 관한 연구 (A Performance Measure for Supply Chain System using Reliability Theory)

  • 조민관;이영해
    • 한국산업경영시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국산업경영시스템학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2002
  • The primary objective of Supply Chain Management (SCM) is to optimize the cash, material and information flow for satisfying customer demands through coordinating the relationship between Supply Chain components such as suppliers, manufacturers, and inventories, etc. By Supply Chain Planning (SCP), operation tasks or goals, should be done in specific due date, are ordered to each SC component for achieving such objective. However, the achievement for operation tasks or goals is affected by uncertainties in SC. In general, reliability theory Is explained as the probability that a product or system will perform its specified function under prescribed conditions without failure for a specified period of time. Therefore, the reliability of SC can be defined as the probability that SC will satisfy customer demands until the specific due date. In this paper, a basic framework to evaluate reliability is respectively proposed as supply chain components, and then a overall framework to estimate the reliability for SC is also proposed.

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고속 광통신망에서 스위칭 오버헤드를 고려한 동적 전송 예약 프로토콜 (A dynamic transmission reservation protocol with non-zero tunig delay for high-speed mutliwavelength networks)

  • 최형윤;이호숙;김영천
    • 전자공학회논문지S
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    • 제34S권5호
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 1997
  • Relatively slow tuning speed of optical device causes the unwanted delay in high speed single-hop multiwavelength networks. To lessen the overhead, we present a channel access protocol with dynamjic message scheduling. Th eframe structure of proposed protocol adopts hybrid multiaccess scheme in which WDMA is used as a basic multiaccess technique and TDMA is used to provide subchannels within a wavelength band. This architecture has two merits : the network extention is not limited by available number of wavelengths, and the transmission delay caused by optical device tuning time can to minimize the number of tunings. It schedules messages that require same wavelength channels sequencely, so the total transmission delay is reduced by decreasement of wavelength changes. The performance of proposed protocol is evaluated through numerical analysis based on probability and queueing theory. The peformance of proposed protocol is evaluated through numerical analysis based on probability and queueing theory. The numeric results show that the peformance of proposed protocol is better than that of previous one.

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Multimedia Watermark Detection Algorithm Based on Bayes Decision Theorys

  • Kwon, Seong-Geun;Lee, Suk-Hwan;Kwon, Kee-Koo;Kwon, Ki-Ryong;Lee, Kuhn-Il
    • 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전자공학회 2002년도 ITC-CSCC -2
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    • pp.1272-1275
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    • 2002
  • Watermark detection plays a crucial role in multimedia copyright protection and has traditionally been tackled using correlation-based algorithms. However, correlation-based detection is not actually the best choice, as it does not utilize the distributional characteristics of the image being marked. Accordingly, an efficient watermark detection scheme for DWT coefficients is proposed as optimal for non-additive schemes. Based on the statistical decision theory, the proposed method is derived according to Bayes' decision theory, the Neyman-Pearson criterion, and the distribution of the DWT coefficients, thereby minimizing the missed detection probability subject to a given false alarm probability. The proposed method was tested in the context of robustness, and the results confirmed the superiority of the proposed technique over conventional correlation-based detection method.

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입출력 형태에 따른 다중처리기 시스템의 성능 분석 (An Analysis of Multi-processor System Performance Depending on the Input/Output Types)

  • 문원식
    • 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a performance model of a shared bus multi-processor system and analyzes the effect of input/output types on system performance and overload of shared resources. This system performance model reflects the memory reference time in relation to the effect of input/output types on shared resources and the input/output processing time in relation to the input/output processor, disk buffer, and device standby places. In addition, it demonstrates the contribution of input/output types to system performance for comprehensive analysis of system performance. As the concept of workload in the probability theory and the presented model are utilized, the result of operating and analyzing the model in various conditions of processor capability, cache miss ratio, page fault ratio, disk buffer hit ratio (input/output processor and controller), memory access time, and input/output block size. A simulation is conducted to verify the analysis result.

음향학에 기반한 자율이동로봇의 초음파 확률격자지도 작성 (Sonar Map Construction Based on Acoustics Theory for Autonomous Mobile Robots)

  • 이유철;이세진;임종환;조동우
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.400-403
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    • 2005
  • The sonar sensors can be divided into a piezo type and an electrostatic type according to a principle of an operating system. The electrostatic type of a sonar sensor is used for map building in this paper. If we know the characteristics of sonar sensor, we can derive the ultrasonic pressure equation from an acoustics theory. We, therefore, developed Ultrasonic Pressure Probabilistic Model (UPPM) to consider the sound pressure in the probability updating process. In this paper, we found that the quality of the resulting probability map is considerably improved, through combining the UPPM with the grid-based mapping algorithm.

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A Quantitative Model of System-Man Interaction Based on Discrete Function Theory

  • Kim, Man-Cheol;Seong, Poong-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제36권5호
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    • pp.430-449
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    • 2004
  • A quantitative model for a control system that integrates human operators, systems, and their interactions is developed based on discrete functions. After identifying the major entities and the key factors that are important to each entity in the control system, a quantitative analysis to estimate the recovery failure probability from an abnormal state is performed. A numerical analysis based on assumed values of related variables shows that this model produces reasonable results. The concept of 'relative sensitivity' is introduced to identify the major factors affecting the reliability of the control system. The analysis shows that the hardware factor and the design factor of the instrumentation system have the highest relative sensitivities in this model. T도 probability of human operators performing incorrect actions, along with factors related to human operators, are also found to have high relative sensitivities. This model is applied to an analysis of the TMI-2 nuclear power plant accident and systematically explains how the accident took place.

The Reliability Estimation of Pipeline Using FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo Simulation with FAD

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • 제20권12호
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    • pp.2124-2135
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.