• 제목/요약/키워드: probability theory

검색결과 690건 처리시간 0.029초

Analysis of Delay Distribution and Rate Control over Burst-Error Wireless Channels

  • 이준구;이형극;이상훈
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제34권5A호
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    • pp.355-362
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    • 2009
  • In real-time communication services, delay constraints are among the most important QoS (Quality of Service) factors. In particular, it is difficult to guarantee the delay requirement over wireless channels, since they exhibit dynamic time-varying behavior and even severe burst-errors during periods of deep fading. Channel throughput may be increased, but at the cost of the additional delays when ARQ (Automatic Repeat Request) schemes are used. For real-time communication services, it is very essential to predict data deliverability. This paper derives the delay distribution and the successful delivery probability within a given delay budget using a priori channel model and a posteriori information from the perspective of queueing theory. The Gilbert-Elliot burst-noise channel is employed as an a Priori channel model, where a two-state Markov-modulated Bernoulli process $(MMBP_2)$ is used. for a posteriori information, the channel parameters, the queue-length and the initial channel state are assumed to be given. The numerical derivation is verified and analyzed via Monte Carlo simulations. This numerical derivation is then applied to a rate control scheme for real-time video transmission, where an optimal encoding rate is determined based on the future channel capacity and the distortion of the reconstructed pictures.

Analysis of aerodynamic characteristics of 2 MW horizontal axis large wind turbine

  • Ilhan, Akin;Bilgili, Mehmet;Sahin, Besir
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2018
  • In this study, aerodynamic characteristics of a horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) were evaluated and discussed in terms of measured data in existing onshore wind farm. Five wind turbines (T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5) were selected, and hub-height wind speed, $U_D$, wind turbine power output, P and turbine rotational speed, ${\Omega}$ data measured from these turbines were used for evaluation. In order to obtain characteristics of axial flow induction factor, a, power coefficient, $C_p$, thrust force coefficient, $C_T$, thrust force, T and tangential flow induction factor, a', Blade Element Momentum (BEM) theory was used. According to the results obtained, during a year, probability density of turbines at a rotational speed of 16.1 rpm was determined as approximately 45%. Optimum tip speed ratio was calculated to be 7.12 for most efficient wind turbine. Maximum $C_p$ was found to be 30% corresponding to this tip speed ratio.

DEMS와 H-terminated Si (001) 표면의 상호작용: 제일원리연구 (Interaction of DEMS with H-terminated Si (001) Surface: A First Principles Study)

  • 김대현;김대희;박소연;서화일;이도형;김영철
    • 한국세라믹학회지
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.425-428
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    • 2009
  • We performed a density functional theory study to investigate the interaction of DEMS (diethoxymethylsilane) with the H-terminated Si (001) surface. The optimum structure of DEMS was first calculated by a first principles study. The dissociation probability of the O-C bond of DEMS was higher than the other seven bonds based on the bond energy calculation. When the fragmented DEMS groups reacted with the H-terminated Si (001) surface, it was the most favorable among the eight reactions to form a bond between the Si atom on the surface and the O atom of a fragmented DEMS group (($C_2H_5O$)Si($CH_3$)(H)-O-) by forming a $C_2H_6$ as by-product.

게임으로 만들어진 슬롯화된 ALOHA를 위한 Bayes 풍의 예측 (Bayesian Prediction for Game-structured Slotted ALOHA)

  • 최천원
    • 대한전자공학회논문지TC
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    • 제49권1호
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2012
  • 게임 이론적 시각으로 p-persistence 슬롯화된 ALOHA를 비협력 게임으로 구성하고, 이 게임에서 Nash equilibrium을 구해 찾아 패킷 전달을 시도할 확률 값을 마련한다. Nash equilibrium의 수학적 표현에는 반드시 활성 변방국의 수가 포함되지만, 많은 실제 응용에서 이러한 수를 거의 알 수가 없다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 패킷의 전달을 시도할 지 결정하기에 앞서 활성 변방국의 수를 예측하는 Bayes 풍의 방식을 제안한다. 제안하는 Bayes 풍의 방식은 변방국이 스스로 자연스럽게 구할 수 있는 최소 정보만을 필요로 하지만 상당량의 정보에 의존하는 방식에 비해 경쟁력 있는 예측 성능을 보여 준다.

Mathematical Model for Revenue Management with Overbooking and Costly Price Adjustment for Hotel Industries

  • Masruroh, Nur Aini;Mulyani, Yun Prihantina
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 2013
  • Revenue management (RM) has been widely used to model products characterized as perishable. Classical RM model assumed that price is the sole factor in the model. Thus price adjustment becomes a crucial and costly factor in business. In this paper, an optimal pricing model is developed based on minimization of soft customer cost, one kind of price adjustment cost and is solved by Lagrange multiplier method. It is formed by expected discounted revenue/bid price integrating quantity-based RM and pricing-based RM. Quantity-based RM consists of two capacity models, namely, booking limit and overbooking. Booking limit, built by assuming uncertain customer arrival, decides the optimal capacity allocation for two market segments. Overbooking determines the level of accepted order exceeding capacity to anticipate probability of cancellation. Furthermore, pricing-based RM models occupancy/demand rate influenced by internal and competitor price changes. In this paper, a mathematical model based on game theoretic approach is developed for two conditions of deterministic and stochastic demand. Based on the equilibrium point, the best strategy for both hotels can be determined.

Fatigue Strength Assessment of Spot-Welded Lap Joint Using Strain Energy Density Factor

  • Sohn, Ilseon;Bae, Dongho
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.44-51
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    • 2001
  • One of the recent issues in design of the spot-welded structure such as the automobile body is to develop an economical prediction method of the fatigue design criterion without additional fatigue test. In this paper, as one of basic investigation for developing such methods, fracture mechanical approach was investigated. First, the Model I, Mode II and Mode III, stress intensity factors were analyzed. Second, strain energy density factor (S) synthetically including them was calculated. And finally, in order to decide the systematic fatigue design criterion by using this strain energy density factor, fatigue data of the ΔP-N(sub)f obtained on the various in-plane bending type spot-welded lap joints were systematically re-arranged in the ΔS-N(sub)f relation. And its utility and reliability were verified by the theory of Weibull probability distribution function. The reliability of the proposed fatigue life prediction value at 10(sup)7 cycles by the strain energy density factor was estimated by 85%. Therefore, it is possible to decide the fatigue design criterion of spot-welded lap joint instead of the ΔP-N(sub)f relation.

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파장변환을 고려하는 WDM 네트워크에서 잔여 링크의 최대화를 고려하는 파장 할당 알고리즘 (Wavelength Assignment Algorithm Considering Maximizing Residual Link in WDM Network with Wavelength Conversion)

  • 신자영;김성천
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:시스템및이론
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    • 제32권11_12호
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    • pp.646-653
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문에서는 WDM 네트워크에서 보다 현실적인 파장 변환을 고려하면서 잔여링크를 최대화시킬 수 있는 파장 할당 알고리즘을 제시한다. 기존의 기법들은 각 노드들의 파장 변환 능력을 무시하고 전체 네트워크의 파장 변환 능력을 일률적으로 고정시킨 것을 가정하기 때문에 비효율적이라 할 수 있다. 제안된 기법은 각 노드의 파장 변환 능력을 각각 고려하면서 사용 가능한 잔여링크의 집합을 가능한 최대화 할 수 있는 링(Ring)의 형태로 만든다. 이것은 잔여링크를 최대화하여 어떤 경로 요구가 있더라도 파장을 할당할 수 있게 한다. 그렇기 때문에 네트워크에서의 블러킹 확률을 최대 $19\%$까지 낮출 수 있었으며, 파장 변환 횟수에서 대략 $40\%$의 성능 향상을 보이고, 네트워크의 활용성을 높일 수 있음을 성능 비교를 통해서 볼 수 있다.

시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 원전 조직 및 인적인자 평가 (A System Dynamics Model for Assessment of Organizational and Human Factor in Nuclear Power Plant)

  • 안남성;곽상만;유재국
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.49-68
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    • 2002
  • The intent of this study is to develop system dynamics model for assessment of organizational and human factors in nuclear power plant which can contribute to secure the nuclear safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is engineering approach such as ergonomics and probability safety assessment(PSA). The other is social science approach such like sociology, organization theory and psychology. Both have contributed to find organization and human factors and to present guideline to lessen human error in NPP. But, since these methodologies assume that relationship among factors is independent they don't explain the interactions among factors or variables in NPP. To overcome these limits, we have developed system dynamics model which can show cause and effect among factors and quantify organizational and human factors. The model we developed is composed of 16 functions of job process in nuclear power, and shows interactions among various factors which affects employees' productivity and job quality. Handling variables such like degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plant in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side. Analyzing pattern of variables, users can get knowledge of their organization structure, and understand stands of other departments or employees. Ultimately they can build learning organization to secure optimal safety in nuclear power plant.

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신규호에 대한 지체가 허용된 셀룰라 이동통신시스템에서 최적 호제어 연구 (Optimal Call Control Strategies in a Cellular Mobile Communication System with a Buffer for New Calls)

  • Paik, Chun-hyun;Chung, Yong-joo;Cha, Dong-wan
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.135-151
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    • 1998
  • The demand of large capacity in coming cellular systems makes inevitable the deployment of small cells, rendering more frequent handoff occurrences of calls than in the conventional system. The key issue is then how effectively to reduce the chance of unsuccessful handoffs, since the handoff failure is less desirable than that of a new call attempt. In this study, we consider the control policies which give priority to handoff calls by limiting channel assignment for the originating new calls, and allow queueing the new calls which are rejected at their first attempts. On this system. we propose the problem of finding an optimal call control strategy which optimizes the objective function value, while satisfying the requirements on the handoff/new call blocking probabilities and the new call delay. The objective function takes the most general form to include such well-known performance measures as the weighted average carried traffic and the handoff call blocking probability. The problem is formulated into two different linear programming (LP) models. One is based on the direct employment of steady state equations, and the other uses the theory of semi-Markov decision process. Two LP formulations are competitive each other, having its own strength in the numbers of variables and constraints. Extensive experiments are also conducted to show which call control strategy is optimal under various system environments having different objective functions and traffic patterns.

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한반도의 확률론적 지진위험분포 (A Probabilistic Seismic Risk of the Korean Peninsula)

  • 김성균;송미정
    • 지질공학
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 1995
  • 한반도의 계기지진 자료를 이용하여 확률론적 지진위험분포를 계산하였다. 이 목적을 위하여 여러 자료를 수집, 검토하여 통일성과 균질성을 갖도록 지진요소들을 재조정한 1905년 이래의 계기지진 목록을 작성하였다. 한반도에서 100년, 1000년, 4000년 동안에 발생가능한 최대 잠재지진의 규모는 극한치 이론을 적용하여 계산할 때 각각 6.3, 7.2, 7.8로 나타난다. 한편 100년, 1000년에 기대되는 최대지반가속도를 재래주기법으로 계산하여, 등치선도를 작성, 제시하였다. 또한 수개의 인구밀집지역에 대해서는 최대 가속도가 발생확률의 함수로 나타나는 지진재해예상곡선이 작성되었다.

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