• 제목/요약/키워드: probability theory

검색결과 690건 처리시간 0.038초

Analysis of flexural fatigue failure of concrete made with 100% coarse recycled and natural aggregates

  • Murali, G.;Indhumathi, T.;Karthikeyan, K.;Ramkumar, V.R.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the flexural fatigue performance of concrete beams made with 100% Coarse Recycled Concrete Aggregates (RCA) and 100% Coarse Natural Aggregates (NA) were statistically commanded. For this purpose, the experimental fatigue test results of earlier researcher were investigated using two parameter Weibull distribution. The shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution function was evaluated using seven numerical methods namely, Graphical method (GM), Least-Squares (LS) regression of Y on X, Least-Squares (LS) regression of X on Y, Empherical Method of Lysen (EML), Mean Standard Deviation Method (MSDM), Energy Pattern Factor Method (EPFM) and Method of Moments (MOM). The average of Weibull parameters was used to incorporate survival probability into stress (S)-fatigue life (N) relationships. Based on the Weibull theory, as single and double logarithm fatigue equations for RCA and NA under different survival probability were provided. The results revealed that, by considering 0.9 level survival probability, the theoretical stress level corresponding to a fatigue failure number equal to one million cycle, decreases by 8.77% (calculated using single-logarithm fatigue equation) and 6.62% (calculated using double logarithm fatigue equation) in RCA when compared to NA concrete.

Probabilistic Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach

  • Long, Zhan-Jun;Lee, Seung-Keon;Lee, Sung-Jong;Jeong, Jae-Hun
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2009
  • Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

오염부하량 할당에 있어서 다목적 유전알고리즘의 적용 방법에 관한 연구 (Application of multi-objective genetic algorithm for waste load allocation in a river basin)

  • 조재현
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.713-724
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    • 2013
  • In terms of waste load allocation, inequality of waste load discharge must be considered as well as economic aspects such as minimization of waste load abatement. The inequality of waste load discharge between areas was calculated with Gini coefficient and was included as one of the objective functions of the multi-objective waste load allocation. In the past, multi-objective functions were usually weighted and then transformed into a single objective optimization problem. Recently, however, due to the difficulties of applying weighting factors, multi-objective genetic algorithms (GA) that require only one execution for optimization is being developed. This study analyzes multi-objective waste load allocation using NSGA-II-aJG that applies Pareto-dominance theory and it's adaptation of jumping gene. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for the parameters that have significant influence on the solution of multi-objective GA such as population size, crossover probability, mutation probability, length of chromosome, jumping gene probability. Among the five aforementioned parameters, mutation probability turned out to be the most sensitive parameter towards the objective function of minimization of waste load abatement. Spacing and maximum spread are indexes that show the distribution and range of optimum solution, and these two values were the optimum or near optimal values for the selected parameter values to minimize waste load abatement.

A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds based on the t-Copula function

  • Quan, Yong;Wang, Jingcheng;Gu, Ming
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.261-282
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    • 2017
  • The probabilistic information of directional extreme wind speeds is important for precisely estimating the design wind loads on structures. A new joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds is established based on observed wind-speed data using multivariate extreme value theory with the t-Copula function in the present study. At first, the theoretical deficiencies of the Gaussian-Copula and Gumbel-Copula models proposed by previous researchers for the joint probability distribution of directional extreme wind speeds are analysed. Then, the t-Copula model is adopted to solve this deficiency. Next, these three types of Copula models are discussed and evaluated with Spearman's rho, the parametric bootstrap test and the selection criteria based on the empirical Copula. Finally, the extreme wind speeds for a given return period are predicted by the t-Copula model with observed wind-speed records from several areas and the influence of dependence among directional extreme wind speeds on the predicted results is discussed.

Fatigue reliability analysis of steel bridge welding member by fracture mechanics method

  • Park, Yeon-Soo;Han, Suk-Yeol;Suh, Byoung-Chul
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.347-359
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    • 2005
  • This paper attempts to develop the analytical model of estimating the fatigue damage using a linear elastic fracture mechanics method. The stress history on a welding member, when a truck passed over a bridge, was defined as a block loading and the crack closure theory was used. These theories explain the influence of a load on a structure. This study undertook an analysis of the stress range frequency considering both dead load stress and crack opening stress. A probability method applied to stress range frequency distribution and the probability distribution parameters of it was obtained by Maximum likelihood Method and Determinant. Monte Carlo Simulation which generates a probability variants (stress range) output failure block loadings. The probability distribution of failure block loadings was acquired by Maximum likelihood Method and Determinant. This can calculate the fatigue reliability preventing the fatigue failure of a welding member. The failure block loading divided by the average daily truck traffic is a predictive remaining life by a day. Fatigue reliability analysis was carried out for the welding member of the bottom flange of a cross beam and the vertical stiffener of a steel box bridge by the proposed model. Results showed that the primary factor effecting failure time was crack opening stress. It was important to decide the crack opening stress for using the proposed model. Also according to the 50% reliability and 90%, 99.9% failure times were indicated.

지표면의 시공간적 변화를 고려한 비점오염원 저감 저류지 최적용량산정 (Optimal Volume Estimation for Non-point Source Control Retention Considering Spatio-Temporal Variation of Land Surface)

  • 최대규;김진관;이재관;김상단
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2011
  • In this study the optimal volume for non-point source control retention is estimated considering spatio-temporal variation of land surface. The 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function is used to represent the statistical properties of rainfall events, and NRCS-CN method is applied as rainfall-runoff transformation. The catchment drainage area is divided into individual $30m{\times}30m$ cells, and runoff curve number is estimated at each cell. Using the derived probability density function theory, the stormwater probability density function at each cell is derived from the rainfall probability density function and NRCS-CN rainfall-runoff transformation. Considering the antecedent soil moisture condition at each cell and the spatial variation of CN value at the whole catchment drainage area, the ensemble stormwater capture curve is established to estimate the optimal volume for an non-point source control retention. The comparison between spatio-temporally varied land surface and constant land surface is presented as a case study for a urban drainage area.

FREE PROBABILITY THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION

  • Heo, Jaeseong
    • 충청수학회지
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2003
  • We prove a simplicity of the $C^*$-algebra generated by some $C^*$-subalgebra and a Haar unitary in a free product of finite von Neumann algebras. Some examples and questions are given.

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DEPENDENCE IN M A MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

  • KIM, TAE-SUNG;BAEK, JONG-IL
    • 호남수학학술지
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 1993
  • In this paper we present of a class infinite M A (moving-average) sequences of multivariate random vectors. We use the theory of positive dependence to show that in a variety of cases the classes of M A sequences are associated. We then apply the association to establish some probability bounds and moment inequalities for multivariate processes.

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On the Moving Average Models with Multivariate geometric Distributions

  • Baek, Jong-ill
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.677-686
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    • 1999
  • In this paper we introduce a class of moving-average(MA) sequences of multivariate random vectors with geometric marginals. The theory of positive dependence is used to show that in various cases the class of MA sequences consists of associated random variables. We utilize positive dependence properties to obtain weakly probability inequality of the multivariate processes.

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