• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.299-309
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• 2006

In recent years, a large natural disasters have occurred due to worldwide abnormal weather and the amount of damage has been increased more resulting from high density population and a large-sized buildings of the urbanized area. In this study. we estimate the flooded area according to rainfall probability intensify and sea level in Woreong dong, Masan occurred flood damages by typhoon Maemi using SWMM, a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model in urban area, and then analyze the damage of flood expected area through connecting with GIS database. In result, we can predict accurately expected area of inundation according to the rainfall intensity and sea level rise through dividing the study area into sub-area and estimating a flooded area and height using SWMM. We provide also the shelter information available for urban planning and flood risk estimation by landuse in expected flood area. Further research for hazard management system construction linked with web or wireless communication technology expects to increase its application.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.101-113
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• 2010

Recently actual rainfall pattern is decreasing rainy days and increasing in rainfall intensity and the frequency of flood occurrence is also increased. To consider recent situation, Engineers use deterministic methods like a PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation). If design storm wouldn't occur, increasing of design criteria is extravagant. In addition, the biggest structure cause trouble with residents and environmental problem. And then it is necessary to study considering probability of rainfall parameter in each sub-basin for design of water structure. In this study, stochastic rainfall patterns are generated by using log-ratio method, Johnson system and multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Using the stochastic rainfall patterns, hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis and 2nd flooding analysis were performed based on GIS for their applicability. The results of simulations are similar to the actual damage area so the methodology of this study should be used about making a flood risk map or regidental shunting rout map against the region.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.465-475
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• 2020

I-D-F curves were induced by Box-Cox transformation using rainfall data from five major cities in Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Daejeon, and Gwangju, as well as from Sancheong (South Gyeongsang province) and Yeongcheon (North Gyeongsang province) stations. The practicality of the Box-Cox transformation is more scalable than the traditional method of frequency analysis in terms of applicability because it is available even if the analysis data are insufficient to perform general frequency analysis and do not produce an appropriate probability density function. For the case in which rainfall data for the entire period (10-1440 minutes) and short-term period (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes) at the foregoing 7 stations are omitted, there was a relative error of -23.0 % to 14.7 % at a duration of 10 to 60 minutes below the 100-year frequency. Accordingly, rainfall analysis requires inducing I-D-F curves, including for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), and if rainfall data are omitted for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), it is necessary to increase the existing margin rate depending on the point in order to ensure the safe design of small-scale hydraulic structures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.15-24
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• 2010

Regional frequency analysis is often used to overcome the limitation of point frequency analysis to estimate probability rainfall depths. However, point frequency analysis is still used in drought analyses. This study proposed a practical method to categorize the homogeneous regions of drought characteristics for the analyses of regional characteristics of droughts in Korea. Using rainfall data from 58 observation stations managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration, this study calculated drought attributes, i.e., mean drought indices for various durations using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and drought severities expressed by durations, depth, and intensity. The drought attributes provided useful information for categorizing stations into the hydrological homogeneous regions. This study introduced a cluster analysis with K-means techniques to group observation stations. The cluster analysis grouped observation stations into 6 regions in Korea. The data in the hydrological homogeneous region would be used in spatial analysis of drought characteristics and drought regional frequency analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.249-249
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• 2011

본 연구에서 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach)를 사용하여 하수관의 성능불능확률(Probability of capacity failure)을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 신뢰성 모형이 개발되었다. 전국 여러 도시의 연 최대강우강도(Yearly Maximum Rainfall Intensity)를 이용하여 그 확률분포함수를 규명하였고 우수관(Storm sewer)의 성능불능확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성모형에 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 우수관의 성능불능확률을 산정하여 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였다. 먼저 적용도시의 강우자료를 면밀히 분석하고 연 최대강우강도의 통계적 특성을 분석하여 신뢰함수를 구축하였으며 우수관의 성능불능확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성 모형이 개발되었다. 그리고 우수관에 적체되는 토사의 깊이에 따라 우수관의 용량을 산정하였다. 재현기간별 강우강도를 사용하여 청주와 춘천의 원형우수관의 성능불능확률을 산정한 결과, 재현기간의 증가에 따란 성능불능확률을 급하게 상승하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 5년, 10년, 20년 재현기간에 따른 연 최대강우강도를 사용하여 청주와 춘천의 우수관의 성능불능확률을 산정하였다. 또한 토사의 적체에 따른 우수관 유효면적의 변화를 고려하여 두 도시의 우수관의 성능불능확률을 산정하였다. 원형 우수관의 성능불능확률을 산정한 결과, 토사의 적체에 따라 우수관의 용량은 감소하여 성능불능확률이 크게 증가하는 것을 확인 할 수 있었다. 따라서 우수관의 용량 감소를 막고 성능불능확률을 최소화하기 위해 우수관에 적체된 토사의 양을 예측할 수 있는 연구가 필요하며 적체된 토사와 콘크리트나 강관벽면이 복합된 우수관에 대한 조도계수를 보다 더 정확히 정량화 할 수 있는 연구가 수행되어야 할 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.151-151
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• 2019

Because drought is a complex and stochastic phenomenon in nature, statistical approaches for drought assessment receive great attention for water resource planning and management. Generally drought characteristics such as severity, duration and intensity are modelled separately. This study aims to develop a relationship between drought characteristics using a bivariate copula model. To achieve the objective, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data at 6 rain gauge stations for the period of 1961-1999 in Jehlum River Basin, Pakistan, and investigated the drought characteristics. Since there is a significant correlation between drought severity and duration, they are usually modeled using different marginal distributions and joint distribution function. Using exponential distribution for drought severity and log-logistic distribution for drought duration, the Galambos copula was recognized as best copula to model joint distribution of drought severity and duration based on the KS-statistic. Various return periods of drought were calculated to identify time interval of repeated drought events. The result of this study can provide useful information for effective water resource management and shows superiority against univariate drought analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.51-62
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• 2017

For the purpose of the study, of the 76 areas subject to preliminary concentrated management on sediment disaster in the downtown area, 9 areas were selected as research areas. They were classified into three stratified rock areas (Gyeongsan City, Goheung-gun and Daegu Metropolitan City), three igneous rock areas (Daejeon City, Sejong Special Self-Governing City and Wonju City) and three metamorphic rock areas (Namyangju City, Uiwang City and Inje District) according to the characteristics of the bedrock in the research areas. As for the 9 areas, analyses were conducted based on tests required to calculate soil characteristics, a predictive model for root adhesive power, loading of trees and on-the-spot research. As for a rainfall scenario (rainfall intensity), the probability of rainfall was applied as offered by APEC Climate Center (APCC) in Busan. As for the prediction of landslide risks in the 9 areas, TRIGRS and LSMAP were applied. As a result of TRIGRIS prediction, the risk rate was recorded 30.45% in stratified rock areas, 41.03% in igneous rock areas and 45.04% in metamorphic rock areas on average. As a result of LSMAP prediction based on root cohesion and the weight of trees according to crown density, it turned out to a 1.34% risk rate in the stratified rock areas, 2.76% in the igneous rock areas and 1.64% in the metamorphic rock areas. Analysis through LSMAP was considered to be relatively local predictive rather than analysis using TRIGRS.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.7
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• pp.55-66
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• 1989

The purpose of this study is to estimate the flood discharge and peak time by the SCS method and the probability method using the geomorpologic parameters obtained from the topographic maps following the law of stream classifying and, ordering by Horton and Strahler. The SCS method and the probability method are used in estimating the times to peak and the flood discharges at An-dong, Im-ha, and Sun-san basins in the Nakdong River system. The results obtained are as follows : 1. The range of the values of the area ratio, the bifurcation ratio and the length ratio agree with those of natural streams presented by Horton and Strahler. 2. Comparisons of the probability method and observed values show that small relative errors of 0-7% of flood discharge, and 0-2hr, difference in time to peak respectivly. But the SCS method shows that large relative errors of 10-40% of flood discharge, and 0-4hr, difference in time to peak. 3. When the rainfall intensity is large, the error of flood discharge estimated by using the probability method is relativly small.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.419-431
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• 2021

In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1691-1695
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• 2010

본 연구에서 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach)를 사용하여 하수관의 불능확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 신뢰성 모형이 개발되었다. 여러 도시의 연 최대강우강도(Yearly Maximum Rainfall Intensity)를 이용하여 그 확률분포함수를 분석하였고 우수관(Storm sewer)의 불능확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성 모형에 적용하였다. 연 최대강우강도 자료의 분석결과 우리나라 중부지방의 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포함수는 Gumbel분포와 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 신뢰성 모형은 불능확률의 신뢰함수를 구하기 위해 하중(Load)을 규정하는 식은 합리식이 사용되었고 용량(Capacity)를 규정하는 식은 Darcy-Weisbach공식과 Manning의 공식이 사용되었다. 이렇게 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 실제 우수관에 적용하여 불능확률을 산정하는 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였다. Y자형 우수관망에서 2개의 관으로 유입하는 각각의 유량이 그 관의 허용유량을 초과할 경우를 불능확률로 가정하였고, 나머지 관의 경우는 두 개의 관으로부터 유입하는 유량과 그 세 번째 관의 매설지역의 우수유입량의 합이 그 관의 허용유량을 초과할 경우를 불능상태(state of system failure)로 간주하여 불능확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Darcy-Weisbach공식과 Manning의 공식을 사용한 신뢰성 해석결과를 비교하였으며 우수관 직경의 변화에 따른 불능확률을 산정하였다. 특정한 수치(설계직경)이하일 경우 불능확률이 급격히 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 항상 가깝도록 불순물을 제거하는 것이 최선의 관리 방법이며 불능확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법일 것이다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.