• 응용통계연구
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.943-952
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• 2013

신뢰구간 추정에 널리 사용되고 있는 Wald, Agresti-Coull, 그리고 베이지안 방법인 Jeffrey와 Bayes-Laplace를 예측구간에 적용하였다. 네 가지 방법의 수치적 비교를 위해서 포함확률, 평균포함확률, 평균제곱오차의 제곱근, 그리고 평균기대폭을 사용하였다. 비교결과 Wald 방법은 신뢰구간에서와 마찬가지로 예측구간에서도 바람직하지 않았고 신뢰구간에서 선호되던 Agresti-Coull 방법은 예측구간에서는 너무 보수적이라 적절치 않다. 반면에 Jeffrey와 Bayes-Laplace 방법은 적절하였고, 특히 Jeffrey 방법은 신뢰구간의 경우에서와 마찬가지로 예측구간에서도 바람직하였다.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.453-461
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• 1999

The estimation of fatigue life at the design stage is very important in order to arrive at feasible and cost effective solutions considering the total lifetime of the structure and machinery compo-nents. In this study the practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors based on Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and probability density function is shown with a $135,000m^3$ LNG tank being used as an example. In particular the parameters of Weibull distribution taht determine the stress spectrum are dis-cussed. At the end some of uncertainties associated with fatigue life prediction are discussed. The main results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. The practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors expressed in combination of probability density function and S-N data is proposed. 2. The calculated fatigue life is influenced by the shape parameter and stress block. The conser-vative fatigue design can be achieved when using higher value of shape parameter and the stress blocks divded into more stress blocks.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.579-588
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• 2021

신뢰구간 추정에 널리 사용되고 있는 Wald, Agresti-Coull, 그리고 베이지안 방법인 Jeffrey와 Bayes-Laplace를 예측구간에 적용하였다. 네 가지 방법의 수치적 비교를 위해서 포함확률, 평균포함확률, 평균제곱오차의 제곱근, 그리고 평균기대폭을 사용하였다. 비교결과 Wald 방법은 신뢰구간에서와 마찬가지로 예측구간에서도 바람직하지 않았고 신뢰구간에서 선호되던 Agresti-Coull 방법은 예측구간에서는 너무 보수적이라 적절치 않다. 반면에 Jeffrey와 Bayes-Laplace 방법은 적절하였고, 특히 Jeffrey 방법은 신뢰구간의 경우에서와 마찬가지로 예측구간에서도 바람직하였다.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 2002년도 ITC-CSCC -3
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• pp.1463-1466
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• 2002

This paper suggests the effective channel assignment scheme for mobility prediction handover. For maintaining required quality of service (QoS) during handover, there are handover algorithms these reserve the channel where the movement is predicted. But channel assignment schemes these have been studied are not considered mobility prediction handover. This paper suggests the channel assignment scheme that considers mobility predicted handover. The suggested algorithm maintains dropping probability of handover calls, decreases blocking probability of new calls and increases channel utilization.

• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.15-29
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• 2010

스폴링 현상은 높은 현지응력하에서 확장균열의 발달로 암반공동 주변에서 발생하는 파괴형태이다. 기존 연구에 의하면 3가지 스폴링 기준은 범위로 제시되어 있어 기준자체의 애매모호함이 상존하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 퍼지확률이론을 적용한 새로운 스폴링 발생 종합 평가모델을 제안하였고 스폴링 발생현장에 평가모델을 적용한 결과 현장관측결과와 일치하는 결과를 보였으며, 정량적으로 스폴링 발생확률을 산정할 수 있었다. 특히, 3가지 스폴링 평가인자별 상대중요도를 고려한 가중치를 적용함으로써 실제 스폴링이 관측된 현장이 스폴링이 발생하지 않는 것으로 평가되는 오류를 해결하였다. 또한, Martin 등(1999)의 손상지수에 형상계수를 도입한 수정손상지수가 포함된 스폴링 평가인자를 스폴링 발생 종합 평가모델에 적용한 결과 합리적인 스폴링 발생확률을 산정할 수 있었다.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제22권12호
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• pp.63-68
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• 2017

In this paper, we propose a bounding box prediction algorithm using multiple probability maps to improve object detection result of object detector. Although the performance of object detectors has been significantly improved, it is still not perfect due to technical problems and lack of learning data. Therefore, we use the result correction method to obtain more accurate object detection results. In the proposed algorithm, the preprocessed bounding box created as a result of object detection by the object detector is clustered in various form, and a conditional probability is given to each cluster to make multiple probability map. Finally, multiple probability map create new bounding box of object using morphological elements. Experiment results show that the newly predicted bounding box reduces the error in ground truth more than 45% on average compared to the previous bounding box.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.37-50
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• 2002

Simultaneous estimation of accuracy and probability corresponding to a prediction interval is considered in this study. Traditional application of confidence interval forecasting consists in evaluation of interval limits for a given significance level. The wider is this interval, the higher is probability and the lower is the forecast precision. In this paper a measure of stochastic forecast accuracy is introduced, and a procedure for balanced estimation of both the predicting accuracy and confidence probability is elaborated. Solution can be obtained in an optimizing approach. Suggested method is applied to constructing confidence intervals for parameters estimated by normal and t distributions

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권3호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2020

The failures of the agricultural reservoirs that most have more than 50 years, have increased due to the abnormal weather and localized heavy rains. There are many studies on the prediction of damage from reservoir collapse, however, these referenced studies focused on evaluating reservoir collapse as single unit and applyed to one and two dimensional hydrodynamic model to identify the fluid flow. This study is to estimate failure probability of spillway, sliding, bearing capacity and overflowing targeting small and medium scale agricultural reservoirs. In addition, we calculate failure probability by complex mode. Moreover, we predict downstream flood damage by reservoir failure applying three dimensional hydrodynamic model. When the reservoir destroyed, the results are as follows; (1) the flow of fluid proceeds to same stream direction and to a lower slope by potential and kinetic energy; (2) The predicted damage in downstream is evaluated that damage due to building destruction is the highest.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.255-261
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• 2009

Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.