• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
• /
• 2003.04a
• /
• pp.310-315
• /
• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
• /
• 2005.05b
• /
• pp.161-164
• /
• 2005

A probability-based durability design which minimizes the uncertainties on durability parameters of concrete is proposed for reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride attack. The uncertainties of various factors such as water-cement ratio, curing temperature, age of concrete and the variation of these factors which affect chloride ion diffusion are considered. For the durability design, a probability-distribution function for each factor is obtained and a program which combines Fick's 2nd law and Monte Carlo simulation is developed. The durability design method proposed in this study considers probability of durability limit and probability of the concentration of chloride ion, so that the probability-based deterioration prediction is possible.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2006.04a
• /
• pp.1-6
• /
• 2006

We consider the issue of Bayesian prediction of the unobservable random effects, And we characterize priors that ensure approximate frequentist validity of posterior quantiles of unobservable random effects. Finally we show that the probability matching criteria for prediction of unobservable random effects in one-way random ANOVA model.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
• /
• v.19 no.6
• /
• pp.1280-1289
• /
• 2005

This paper presents the effects of corrosion environments of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability. The FORM (first order reliability method) is used in order to estimate the failure probability in the buried pipelines with corrosion defects. The effects of varying distribution types of random variables such as normal, lognormal and Weibull distributions on the failure probability of buried pipelines are systematically investigated. It is found that the failure probability for the MB31G model is larger than that for the B31G model. And the failure probability is estimated as the largest for the Weibull distribution and the smallest for the normal distribution. The effect of data scattering in corrosion environments on failure probability is also investigated and it is recognized that the scattering of wall thickness and yield strength of pipeline affects the failure probability significantly. The normalized margin is defined and estimated. Furthermore, the normalized margin is used to predict the failure probability using the fitting lines between failure probability and normalized margin.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.129-137
• /
• 2017

In this study, the prediction of landslide probability was performed to the study area located in ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ area of Muan-gun, Jeonnam Province around Honam railway using the computer program SHAPP ver 1.0 developed by a decision tree model. The soil samples were collected at total 8 points, and soil tests were performed to measure soil properties. The thematic maps of soil properties such as coefficient of permeability and void ratio were made on the basis of soil test results. The slope angle analysis of topography was performed using a digital map. As the prediction result of landslide probability, 435 cells among total 15,552 cells were predicted to be in the event of landslides. Therefore, the predicted area of occurring landslides may be $43,500m^2$ because the analyzed cell size was $10m{\times}10m$.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.67-74
• /
• 2013

In this study, the prediction of slope hazard probability was performed to the study area located in Hadae-ri, Woochun-myeon, Hoengsung-gun, Gangwon Province around Youngdong express way using the computer program SHAPP ver 1.0 developed by a decision tree model. The soil samples were collected at total 10 points, and soil tests were performed to measure soil properties. The thematic maps of soil properties such as coefficient of permeability and void ratio were made on the basis of soil test results. The slope angle analysis of topography was performed using a digital map. As the prediction result of slope hazard probability, 2,120 cells among total 27,776 cells were predicted to be in the event of slope hazards. Therefore, the predicted area of occurring slope hazards may be $53,000m^2$ because the analyzed cell size was $5m{\times}5m$.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.28 no.5
• /
• pp.396-403
• /
• 2014

This paper considered the prediction of the tension force in the design of a TLP tendon, particularly focusing on the springing problem. Springing is an important parameter that exerts a large tension in special cases. It is a nonlinear phenomenon and requires the 2nd-order wave loads to solve. In this paper, a new prediction method for springing and the resultant extreme tension on the tendon of a TLP is introduced. Using the 2nd-order response function computed using the commercial program WADAM, the probability density function of the 2nd-order tension is obtained from an eigenvalue analysis using a quadratic transfer function and sea spectra. A new method is then suggested to predict the extreme tension loads with respect to the number of occurrences. It is shown that the PDF suggested in this study properly predicts the extreme tension in comparison with the time histories of the 2nd-order tension. The expected tension force is larger than that from a linear analysis in the same time windows. This supports the use of the present method to predict the tension due to springing.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.11 no.12
• /
• pp.6017-6037
• /
• 2017

In a multi-resolution image encoding system, the image is encoded into a single file as a layer of bit streams, and then it is transmitted layer by layer progressively to reduce the transmission time across a low bandwidth connection. This encoding scheme is also suitable for multiple decoders, each with different capabilities ranging from a handheld device to a PC. In our previous work, we proposed an edge adaptive hierarchical interpolation algorithm for multi-resolution image coding system. In this paper, we enhanced its compression efficiency by adding three major components. First, its prediction accuracy is improved using context adaptive error modeling as a feedback. Second, the conditional probability of prediction errors is sharpened by removing the sign redundancy among local prediction errors by applying sign flipping. Third, the conditional probability is sharpened further by reducing the number of distinct error symbols using error remapping function. Experimental results on benchmark data sets reveal that the enhanced algorithm achieves a better compression bit rate than our previous algorithm and other algorithms. It is shown that compression bit rate is much better for images that are rich in directional edges and textures. The enhanced algorithm also shows better rate-distortion performance and visual quality at the intermediate stages of progressive image transmission.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.255-261
• /
• 2013

In this paper, we developed and tested a program for prediction flash fire in a combat system. Purposes of the program are flash fire prediction of combat system for analysis vulnerability and survivability, and visualization for fire-related information. To do this, we defined critical components of the combat system which has probabilities of flash fire occurrence, and proposed Flash Fire Probability Tree which is based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA). The program visualizes positions of critical components in combat system, positions of penetrated components, selected Flash Fire Probability Tree, temperature profile, and tables for properties of matters.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.141-154
• /
• 2020

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1-5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.