• 제목/요약/키워드: probability of transition

검색결과 286건 처리시간 0.023초

소규모 냉각재 상실사고하의 원자로 압력용기에 대한 확률론적 파괴역학 평가 (Evaluation of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for Reactor Pressure Vessel under SBLOCA)

  • 김종욱;이규만;김태완
    • 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2008
  • In order to predict a remaining life of a plant, it is necessary to select the components that are critical to the plant life. The remaining life of those components shall be evaluated by considering the aging effect of materials used as well as numerous factors. However, when evaluating reliability of nuclear structural components, some problems are quite formidable because of lack of information such as operating history, material property change and uncertainty in damage models. Accordingly, if structural integrity and safety are evaluated by the deterministic fracture mechanics approach, it is expected that the results obtained are too conservative to perform a rational evaluation of plant life. The probabilistic fracture mechanics approaches are regarded as appropriate methods to rationally evaluate the plant life since they can consider various uncertainties such as sizes and shapes of cracks and degradation of material strength due to the aging effects. The objective of this study is to evaluate the structural integrity for a reactor pressure vessel under the small break loss of coolant accident by applying the deterministic and probabilistic fracture mechanics. The deterministic fracture mechanics analysis was performed using the three dimensional finite element model. The probabilistic integrity analysis was based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The selected random variables are the neutron fluence on the vessel inside surface, the content of copper, nickel, and phosphorus in the reactor pressure vessel material, and initial RTNDT.

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비모수적 추계학적 일 강우 발생기 기반의 빗물이용시설 신뢰도 평가모형의 부산광역시 해운대 신시가지 적용 (Application of Rainwater Harvesting System Reliability Model Based on Non-parametric Stochastic Daily Rainfall Generator to Haundae District of Busan)

  • 최치현;박무종;백천우;김상단
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.634-645
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    • 2011
  • A newly developed rainwater harvesting (RWH) system reliability model is evaluated for roof area of buildings in Haeundae District of Busan. RWH system is used to supply water for toilet flushing, back garden irrigation, and air cooling. This model is portable because it is based on a non-parametric precipitation generation algorithm using a markov chain. Precipitation occurrence is simulated using transition probabilities derived for each day of the year based on the historical probability of wet and dry day state changes. Precipitation amounts are selected from a matrix of historical values within a moving 30 day window that is centered on the target day. Then, the reliability of RWH system is determined for catchment area and tank volume ranges using synthetic precipitation data. As a result, the synthetic rainfall data well reproduced the characteristics of precipitation in Busan. Also the reliabilities of RWH system for each of demands were computed to high values. Furthermore, for study area using the RWH system, reduction efficiencies for rooftop runoff inputs to the sewer system and potable water demand are evaluated for 23%, 53%, respectively.

Predicting PM2.5 Concentrations Using Artificial Neural Networks and Markov Chain, a Case Study Karaj City

  • Asadollahfardi, Gholamreza;Zangooei, Hossein;Aria, Shiva Homayoun
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.67-79
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    • 2016
  • The forecasting of air pollution is an important and popular topic in environmental engineering. Due to health impacts caused by unacceptable particulate matter (PM) levels, it has become one of the greatest concerns in metropolitan cities like Karaj City in Iran. In this study, the concentration of $PM_{2.5}$ was predicted by applying a multilayer percepteron (MLP) neural network, a radial basis function (RBF) neural network and a Markov chain model. Two months of hourly data including temperature, NO, $NO_2$, $NO_x$, CO, $SO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ were used as inputs to the artificial neural networks. From 1,488 data, 1,300 of data was used to train the models and the rest of the data were applied to test the models. The results of using artificial neural networks indicated that the models performed well in predicting $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations. The application of a Markov chain described the probable occurrences of unhealthy hours. The MLP neural network with two hidden layers including 19 neurons in the first layer and 16 neurons in the second layer provided the best results. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$), Index of Agreement (IA) and Efficiency (E) between the observed and the predicted data using an MLP neural network were 0.92, 0.93 and 0.981, respectively. In the MLP neural network, the MBE was 0.0546 which indicates the adequacy of the model. In the RBF neural network, increasing the number of neurons to 1,488 caused the RMSE to decline from 7.88 to 0.00 and caused $R^2$ to reach 0.93. In the Markov chain model the absolute error was 0.014 which indicated an acceptable accuracy and precision. We concluded the probability of occurrence state duration and transition of $PM_{2.5}$ pollution is predictable using a Markov chain method.

Performance Analysis of Opportunistic Spectrum Access Protocol for Multi-Channel Cognitive Radio Networks

  • Kim, Kyung Jae;Kwak, Kyung Sup;Choi, Bong Dae
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2013
  • Cognitive radio (CR) has emerged as one of effective methods to enhance the utilization of existing radio spectrum. Main principle of CR is that secondary users (SUs) are allowed to use the spectrum unused by primary users (PUs) without interfering PU's transmissions. In this paper, PUs operate on a slot-by-slot basis and SUs try to exploit the slots unused by PUs. We propose OSA protocols in the single channel and we propose an opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) protocols in the multi-channel cognitive radio networks with one control channel and several licensed channels where a slot is divided into contention phase and transmission phase. A slot is divided into reporting phase, contention phase and transmission phase. The reporting phase plays a role of finding idle channels unused by PUs and the contention phase plays a role of selecting a SU who will send packets in the data transmission phase. One SU is selected by carrier sense multiple access / collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) with request to send / clear to send (RTS/CTS) mechanism on control channel and the SU is allowed to occupy all remaining part of all idle channels during the current slot. For mathematical analysis, first we deal with the single-channel case and we model the proposed OSA media access control (MAC) protocol by three-dimensional discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) whose one-step transition probability matrix has a special structure so as to apply the censored Markov chain method to obtain the steady state distribution.We obtain the throughput and the distribution of access delay. Next we deal with the multi-channel case and obtain the throughput and the distribution of access delay by using results of single-channel case. In numerical results, our mathematical analysis is verified by simulations and we give numerical results on throughput and access delay of the proposed MAC protocol. Finally, we find the maximum allowable number of SUs satisfying the requirements on throughput and access delay.

파장분할 다중화 통신망에서 제어채널 분할을 이용한 멀티캐스팅 프로토콜의 성능분석 (Performance Analysis of the Multicasting Protocol Using Division of the Control Channel in WDM Networks)

  • 정길현;이정규
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제25권5B호
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    • pp.842-849
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    • 2000
  • 본 논문은 파장분할 다중화(WDM: Wavelength Division Multiplexing) 통신망에서 멀티캐스트 트래픽의 특성을 향상시키기 위해서 제어채널을 분할한 프로토콜의 성능을 해석하였다. 이 프로토콜에서 제어채널은 경쟁 미니슬롯 영역과 비경쟁 미니슬롯 영역에 우선적으로 등록되므로써 제어채널 경쟁과 목적지 충돌을 줄이게 된다. 멀티캐스트 트래픽을 처리하기 위해서 비경쟁 미니슬롯 영역의 채널 수를 최적화하고 성능을 예측하기 위해서는 이론적인 해석과 시뮬레이션에 의한 검증으로 해석하였다. 시스템의 성능 개선을 최대로 하기 위해 최대 비경쟁 미니슬롯 수는 망의 채널 수와 동일한 것으로 하여 그 특성을 이론적으로 해석하고 그 결과를 시뮬레이션에 의해서 검증하였다.

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CLUSTERING DNA MICROARRAY DATA BY STOCHASTIC ALGORITHM

  • Shon, Ho-Sun;Kim, Sun-Shin;Wang, Ling;Ryu, Keun-Ho
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
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    • pp.438-441
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    • 2007
  • Recently, due to molecular biology and engineering technology, DNA microarray makes people watch thousands of genes and the state of variation from the tissue samples of living body. With DNA Microarray, it is possible to construct a genetic group that has similar expression patterns and grasp the progress and variation of gene. This paper practices Cluster Analysis which purposes the discovery of biological subgroup or class by using gene expression information. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to predict a new class which is unknown, open leukaemia data are used for the experiment, and MCL (Markov CLustering) algorithm is applied as an analysis method. The MCL algorithm is based on probability and graph flow theory. MCL simulates random walks on a graph using Markov matrices to determine the transition probabilities among nodes of the graph. If you look at closely to the method, first, MCL algorithm should be applied after getting the distance by using Euclidean distance, then inflation and diagonal factors which are tuning modulus should be tuned, and finally the threshold using the average of each column should be gotten to distinguish one class from another class. Our method has improved the accuracy through using the threshold, namely the average of each column. Our experimental result shows about 70% of accuracy in average compared to the class that is known before. Also, for the comparison evaluation to other algorithm, the proposed method compared to and analyzed SOM (Self-Organizing Map) clustering algorithm which is divided into neural network and hierarchical clustering. The method shows the better result when compared to hierarchical clustering. In further study, it should be studied whether there will be a similar result when the parameter of inflation gotten from our experiment is applied to other gene expression data. We are also trying to make a systematic method to improve the accuracy by regulating the factors mentioned above.

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Photodissociation Dynamics of C2H4BrCl: Nonadiabatic Dynamics with Intrinsic Cs Symmetry

  • Lee, Kyoung-Seok;Paul, Dababrata;Hong, Ki-Ryong;Cho, Ha-Na;Jung, Kwang-Woo;Kim, Tae-Kyu
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제30권12호
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    • pp.2962-2968
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    • 2009
  • The photodissociation dynamics of 1,2-bromochloroethane ($C_2H_4BrCl$) was investigated near 234 nm. A two-dimensional photofragment ion-imaging technique coupled with a [2+1] resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization scheme was utilized to obtain speed and angular distributions of the nascent Br($^2P_{3/2}$) and Br${\ast}($^2P_{1/2}$) atoms. The total translational energy distributions for the Br and Br${\ast}$ channels were well characterized by Gaussian functions with average translational energies of 100 and 84 kJ/mol, respectively. The recoil anisotropies for the Br and Br${\ast}$ channels were measured to be ${\beta}$ = 0.49 ${\pm}$ 0.05 for Br and 1.55 ${\pm}$ 0.05 for Br${\ast}$. The relative quantum yield for Br${\ast}$ was found to be ${\Phi}_{Br{\ast}}$ = 0.33 ${\pm}$ 0.03. The probability of nonadiabatic transition between A' states was estimated to be 0.46. The relevant nonadiabatic dynamics is discussed in terms of interaction between potential energy surfaces in Cs symmetry.

해군력이 해양 영토분쟁의 해결에 미치는 영향 (A Study on the Influence of Naval Power upon the Resolution of Maritime Territorial Disputes)

  • 한종환
    • Strategy21
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    • 통권44호
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    • pp.103-141
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    • 2018
  • As the South China Sea maritime dispute illustrates, when considering the place where maritime claims occur, states do not have many choices to respond to maritime claims in which disputed areas are located far away from the land and are surrounded by the sea. As Mearsheimer (2014) points out, the sea stops power projection. Therefore, in order to adopt coercive as well as peaceful settlement policies to deal with maritime claims, states need to overcome obstacles (the sea) to project power. It means that if states want to conduct a specific foreign policy action, such as negotiating maritime borderlines or arguing sovereignty on islands, they need a tool (naval power) to coerce or to persuade the opponent. However, there are lack of research that studies maritime claims from the perspective of naval power. This research project fills this gap based on naval power. How do relative levels of naval power and (dis) parities of naval power influence the occurrence of MIDs over maritime claims? Naval power is a constitutive element during maritime claims. If disputants over maritime claims have required naval power to project their capability, it means that they have the capability to apply various ways, such as aggressive options including MIDs, to accomplish their goals. So, I argue that when two claimants have enough naval power to project their capabilities, the likelihood of MIDs over maritime claims increases. Given that one or both states have a certain level of naval power, how does relative naval power between two claimants influence the management of maritime claims? Based on the power transition theory, I argue that when the disparities of relative naval power between claimants becomes distinctive, militarized conflicts surrounding maritime territory are less probable. Based on the ICOW project which codes maritime claims from 1900 to 2001, the empirical results of the Poisson models show if both claimants have projectable naval power, the occurrence of MIDs over maritime claims increases. In addition, the result shows that when disputants maintain similar relative naval powers, they are more likely to initiate MIDs over maritime claims. To put it differently, if naval capabilities' gap between two claimants becomes larger, the probability of the occurrence of MIDs decreases.

테스팅 및 저전력을 고려한 최적화된 상태할당 기술 개발 (Development of Optimized State Assignment Technique for Testing and Low Power)

  • 조상욱;이현빈;박성주
    • 대한전자공학회논문지SD
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2004
  • 유한상태기의 상태할당은 이로부터 구현되는 순차회로의 속도, 면적, 테스팅 및 소비전력에 큰 영향을 미친다. 본 논문에서는 상태변수 그룹들 사이에 상호 의존성(dependency)을 최소화하여 테스팅 및 전력소모를 개선하기 위한 m-블록 분할을 이용한 새로운 상태할당 기술을 소개한다. m-블록 분할 알고리즘에 의해 상태도로부터 상태들을 그룹으로 나누어 상태변수의 상호의존성을 줄이고, 상태천이 확률에 의해 결정된 무게인자에 따라 상태간 상태변수의 변화를 최소로하는 코드를 할당하여 상태천이시 스위칭 횟수를 줄인다. 상태변수 의존성을 줄임으로써 순차회로 사이클이 줄어들어서 부분스캔 및 테스트 생성이 용이하게 되고, 상태변수간의 스위칭 횟수를 줄임으로써 소비전력이 줄어들게 든다. 즉, 본 상태할당 기술은 서로 상반 관계에 있는 테스팅과 저전력 문제를 동시에 해결할 수 있는 새로운 기술이다. 벤치마크 회로에 대한 실험결과 기존의 방법보다 고장점검도 및 소비전력이 현저히 개선되었음을 확인하였다.

DTN에서 Markov Chain을 이용한 노드의 이동 예측 기법 (Prediction method of node movement using Markov Chain in DTN)

  • 전일규;이강환
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.1013-1019
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 Delay Tolerant Network(DTN)에서 Markov chain으로 노드의 속성 정보를 분석하여 노드의 이동경로를 예측하는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 기존 DTN에서의 예측기반 라우팅 기법은 노드가 미리 정해진 스케줄에 따라 이동하게 된다. 이러한 네트워크에서는 스케줄을 예측할 수 없는 환경에서 노드의 신뢰성이 낮아지는 문제가 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위해 노드의 속성 정보를 Markov chain을 적용하고 일정 구간에서 시간에 따른 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 CMCP(Context-awareness Markov-Chain Prediction)알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 노드의 속성 정보 중 노드의 속력과 방향성을 근사한 후 Markov chain을 이용하여 제한된 주기와 버퍼의 범위에서 확률전이 매트릭스를 생성하여 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 알고리즘이다. 주어진 모의실험 환경에서 노드의 이동 경로 예측을 통해 중계 노드를 선정하여 라우팅 함으로써 메시지 전송 지연 시간이 감소하고 전송률이 증가함 보여주고 있다.