• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of employment

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Discriminatory ability of cervical vertebral maturation stages in predicting attainment of the legal age threshold of 14 years: A pilot study using lateral cephalograms

  • Banda, Thirupathi Reddy;Komuravelli, Anil Kumar;Balla, Sudheer B.;Korrai, Bala Raju;Alluri, Kavya;Kondapaneni, Jayasurya;Abhyankar, Sourab
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In India, the age of 14 years is the legal age threshold for child labour. Therefore, in suspected instances of child labour, age assessment plays a crucial role in determining whether a violation of the law on the employment of children has occurred. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to assess the discriminatory ability of stages of cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) in predicting the legal age threshold of 14 years. Materials and Methods: Routinely taken lateral cephalograms from 408 subjects aged 10 to 18 years were evaluated retrospectively using the CVM stages described by Baccetti et al. Descriptive statistics, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated for stages 2, 3, and 4 of CVM. Results: Real age increased as the CVM stage gradually increased. The results of 2×2 contingency tables showed that CVM stage 4 produced an accuracy of 71% and 73%, a false positive rate of 7% and 18%, and a post-test probability of 59% and 68% for boys and girls, respectively. Conclusion: Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the stages of CVM are of limited use for predicting the attainment of the legal age threshold of 14 years. Future studies should investigate whether combinations of skeletal and dental methods could achieve better accuracy and post-test probability.

Multidimensional Poverty Analysis of Elderly Households by Cohort (노인가구의 코호트별 다차원빈곤 분석)

  • Kim, Soon-Mi;Cho, Kyung-Jin
    • Human Ecology Research
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.51-71
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the poverty rate by poverty dimension, correlation between multidimensional poverty, variables that affected the number of poverty dimension and the probability of the poor or not. The sample consisted of 6,361 elderly households (1,561 baby boom birth cohort, 1,793 post-liberation birth cohort, 3,007 Japanese colonial period birth cohort) taken from the $12^{th}$ Korean Welfare Panel Study. First, the highest poverty rate among the baby boom birth cohort was 62.8% of employment poverty. The highest rate among the post-liberation birth cohort and Japanese colonial period birth cohort, was 82.5%, 92.3% of health poverty, respectively. Second, the highest coefficient in the baby boom birth cohort was .354 for asset poverty and relation poverty. In the remaining two cohorts, the coefficient for asset poverty and relation poverty was the highest at .268, .284, respectively. Third, the average number of poverty dimensions was 2.318 of the baby boom birth cohort, 2.921 of the post-liberation birth cohort, 3.564 of the poverty in the Japanese colonial period birth cohort. Also, the poverty rate for each cohort was 20.179%, 28.779%, and 50.083%, respectively. Fourth, the significant variables in all cohorts were gender, education, marital status, residence, and equalized ordinary income for the multiple regression analysis on the number of poverty dimensions. Additionally, age of the post-liberation birth cohort was significant, age and family numbers of the Japanese colonial period birth cohort were significant. Significant variables in logistic analysis on the probability of poverty or not were the same as those of regression analysis.

A Study of Work Transition Form of Female Youth (여성 청년층 집단의 취업이행 형태 연구)

  • 김태홍;김종숙
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.41-68
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    • 2002
  • This study explores school to work transition of female youth. Particularly, the analyses focus on a transition to the first job from the graduation, and exits of irregular employees from their first occupational status. Data used for the analysis are “The 4th Survey on Women's Employment”, collected by KWDI in 2001. The results show that it takes 1.54 years on average for transition. Significant factors that influence the probability of transition to the first job include economic situation and satisfaction level of major at college education. The general high school educated are less likely to move into the labor market. Only a half percent of irregular employees at their first jobs exits to regular employees or non-economically active status, and education levels and age cohorts have clear impacts of those exits. Majors in college education and holding irregular jobs before the graduation significantly affect the probability of being regular employees, while industry influences the exits to be non-economically active status.

The Determinants of S&E Workforce Shortage in Korean Manufacturing Sectors (산업기술인력 부족의 결정요인 분석)

  • Um, Mi-Jung;Park, Jae-Min
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.25-40
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    • 2007
  • It has been pointed out that the shortage of the Korean science and engineering workforce is a key issue in enterprises' competitiveness. The Korean government has conducted various surveys and research projects to determine the current situation and its causes. Nevertheless, the surveys report different results, and, to date, very few in-depth studies have been conducted on the factors that lead to such a shortage. This study aimed at investigating the factors that cause the shortage of the science and engineering workforce by looking at a recent survey on the actual employment conditions in manufacturing and major service industries. The study also estimated the determinant factors, based on the results of a survey conducted on 5,967 enterprises. Particularly, the probability of the workforce shortages are defined as a logistic probability function, which includes a diverse number of explanations that represent the characteristics of an enterprise and its internal demand conditions on workforce. The findings showed that key determinants include not only the factors that have been recognized by previous studies, but also research propensity and competitiveness aw well as the enterprises' internal demand conditions on human resources. In other words, an enterprise is more exposed to the problem of workforce shortage when it performs its R&D more proactively and its innovative activities are more organized. It has been further analyzed that the R&D and internal demand variables are more eminent to the shortage problem on skilled workers, which proves the shortage of workforce is not only caused by the quantitative aspect but also hold qualitative aspect characterized by skill obsolescence and mismatch in the labor market.

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An Imputation for Nonresponses in the Survey on the Rural Living Indicators (농촌생활지표조사에서 무응답 대체 : 사례)

  • Cho, Young-Sook;Chun, Young-Min;Hwang, Dae-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2008
  • Survey on the rural living indicators was the statistic approved from National Statistical Office and the survey executed by rural resources development institute. This study was used the raw data of survey on the rural living indicators in 2005. After editing procedure for raw data, we were studied 1,582 households which is acquired through elimination of case included nonresponses, and imputed a nonresponses of 15 item selected from 146 item. The imputation methods and efficiency of imputation for simulation was adapted differently from type of data. For continuous data, we imputed the nonresponses with mean imputation, regression imputation, adjusted grey-based k-NN imputation(DU, DW, WU, WW) and compared the results with RMSE. For categorical data, we imputed the nonresponses with mode method, probability imputation, conditional mode method, conditional probability method, hot-deck imputation, and compared the results with Accuracy. By the results, regression imputation and adjusted grey-based k-NN imputation appropriated for continuous data and hot-deck imputation appropriated for categorical data.

The Impacts of Education and Non-Labor Income on Employment Among the Elderly: An Estimation with a Panel Logit Model to Address the Problem of Endogenous Predictors (교육수준과 비근로소득이 고령자 취업에 미치는 영향: 내생성을 고려한 패널로짓 모형 추정)

  • Kim, Cheoljoo
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.95-123
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    • 2016
  • As Korean society grows rapidly older, a systematic analysis of the determinants of labor supply behavior among the elderly becomes a prerequisite for designing more effective senior employment policies and income security regime for the elderly. Literatures review shows that a majority of previous researches have been ignoring the problem of "endogenous predictor" especially when it comes to the estimation of the effects of the two key variables, education and non-labor income, on labor supply decisions among older people. They have failed to take into consideration the unobserved heterogeneities which might affect both labor supply decisions of the elderly and their levels of education and non-labor income, which means, according to some econometric literatures, that the estimated coefficients of the two predictors can be inconsistent. The paper tries to redress the endogeneity problem by employing a panel logit model with data from the 1st. to 4th. wave of the KLoSA(Korean Longitudinal Survey of Ageing) to estimate the effects of key predictors on the probability of getting jobs among older people(ages of 60 or older). Both a random effects and a fixed effects model reaffirms that non-labor income has a negative effect on the chances of being employed. And a random effects model shows that the effect of education is also negative, as has frequently been reported by previous studies. That means the effects of education and non-labor income on elderly employment remain negative after the effect of unobserved heterogeneities is controled for and the problem of endogenous predictors is redressed through an appropriate panel data analysis. These findings mean, in turn, that when Korean baby-boomers, who had acquired an unprecedentedly higher level of education and were expected to enjoy ever-larger amount of non-labor income than their preceding generations, retires in near future, their incentives to work will become much weaker and the lack of labor-force and the burden of financing increased public pension expenditure will become more troublesome. The paper concludes with recommending some policy initiatives helpful to solve these expected problems.

Artificial Intelligence to forecast new nurse turnover rates in hospital (인공지능을 이용한 신규간호사 이직률 예측)

  • Choi, Ju-Hee;Park, Hye-Kyung;Park, Ji-Eun;Lee, Chang-Min;Choi, Byung-Gwan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.431-440
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    • 2018
  • In this study, authors predicted probability of resignation of newly employed nurses using TensorFlow, an open source software library for numerical computation and machine learning developed by Google, and suggested strategic human resources management plan. Data of 1,018 nurses who resigned between 2010 and 2017 in single university hospital were collected. After the order of data were randomly shuffled, 80% of total data were used for machine leaning and the remaining data were used for testing purpose. We utilized multiple neural network with one input layer, one output layer and 3 hidden layers. The machine-learning algorithm correctly predicted for 88.7% of resignation of nursing staff with in one year of employment and 79.8% of that within 3 years of employment. Most of resigned nurses were in their late 20s and 30s. Leading causes of resignation were marriage, childbirth, childcare and personal affairs. However, the most common cause of resignation of nursing staff with in one year of employment were maladaptation to the work and problems in interpersonal relationship.

The Determinants of Working Poor' Poverty-Exit Possibility : Path Dependency of Working Poor Labor Market (근로빈곤층의 빈곤탈출 결정요인 연구 : 근로빈곤노동시장의 경로제약성을 중심으로)

  • Ji, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.147-174
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    • 2007
  • This study examines how path dependency of working poor labor market segmented from the primary and the secondary labor market affects employment and quality of employment of working poor. It Further examines how path dependency makes working poor to remain in the labor market and makes it difficult for them to escape from a vicious poverty cycle. Data is based on the $3{\sim}7th$ Korea Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). Markov's transition probability and discrete-time hazard analysis are used for analysis. This study finds that Korea labor market is divided into three parts; the primary labor market, the secondary labor market and the working poor labor market. The proportion of employed poor has been reduced, but the proportion of non economically-active working poor has been increased and has become the main group among the working poor. This shows that labor demand of working poor is fundamentally lacking and there are structural barriers that block working poor's employment itself. The regression analysis shows that the longer working poor labor market participation is, the lower poverty-exit rate. This is an evidence of vicious poverty cycle that the poor have little chance to exit from working poor labor market, once they step into it. Therefore, the longer their participation in poor labor market, the more likely they would move only within the closed working poor labor market. Consequently, it is necessary to fundamentally reform labor market structure and to alleviate negative perception and discrimination about the poor labor while activating labor demand.

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Young Married Women's Labor Market Exit: Focused on the Effects of the Child Birth and Available Family-Friendly Policies (첫 자녀 출산 여부와 가족친화제도에 따른 유배우 기혼 여성의 취업 중단에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Kyung;Ok, Sun-Wha
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.59-83
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to understand why female labor force participation rates decline in early times after their marriage. Data were derived from the 4th(2001) to 9th(2006) Korea Labor & Income Panel Study. 194 Korean married women in twenties and thirties who had a job before marriage were analyzed. Survival analysis was used to explore the first labor force exit of married women longitudinally. The major findings are as follows. First, nearly half of them went away from labor market in the first 3 years after marriage. Second, child birth was the most significant factor in predicting women's labor force exit. Married women's employment discontinuity tend to be lowered after child birth, with working hour decreasing, and with the number of available family-friendly policies increasing. Married women's income encouraged them to hold on their career, though husband's income and household income were not significant. Third, married women tended to leave their job before giving birth. Women who remained in the labor market at child birth or until a year after birth were inclined to continue their job thereafter. Fourth, maternity leave and childcare leave diminished the probability of employment discontinuity. Many working wives could not use a maternity leave or childcare leave. This study shows married women usually underwent labor market exit in their newly married time. They cannot help facing conflict between the role of mother's and a worker's. Family-friendly policies could encourage working wives to rear child and continue work at the same time. The findings of this study could serve as fundamental material for further studies and would be a key to find effective solution for problematic issues on reconciling work and family.

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Locational Analysis of Rural Industrial Estates and Chonbuk Economic Development Strategies (농공지구 입지분석 : 전라북도의 경우)

  • 박임구;백영기;장재우
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.103-119
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    • 1993
  • This research examines the spatial development of rural industrial estates (Nong-gong Jigu) in Chonbuk province and gives insight into the strategies for economic development in the entire region. Selected location factors which are likely to pull new investment into the estates are examined by using questionnaires. Few loction factors except nonlocal factors can be found in explaining why location choices are made. The irrelevance of the analysis based on location factors suggests that an alternative approach should analyze changes in the spatial development of the rural industrial estates. Such an alternative is to understand the dynamics of the spatial organization of production by focusing on characteistics of plant closing in the rural industrial estates. To take into account of the characteristics of plant closing we provide the hypothesized relationships between employment size, organizational structure, inter and intra industrial linkage, characteristics of production processes, and availability of local labor market and the likelihood of closing. A logit model is then made to identify the selected factors which might influence the probability of plant closing. The results from the logit analysis and their implications suggest that the policy should be more concerned with the characteristics of firms, such as size and ownership, as well as of the local labor markets. Given that the Chonbuk region has experienced rapid population decline, together with its poor industrial base, it seems that the success of the policy in the declined rural areas in less certain.

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