• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability generating function

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Performance Analysis of a Discrete-Time Two-Phase Queueing System

  • Kim, Tae-Sung;Chang, Seok-Ho;Chae, Kyung-Chul
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.238-246
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    • 2003
  • This paper introduces the modeling and analysis of a discrete-time, two-phase queueing system for both exhaustive batch service and gated batch service. Packets arrive at the system according to a Bernoulli process and receive batch service in the first phase and individual services in the second phase. We derive the probability generating function (PGF) of the system size and show that it is decomposed into two PGFs, one of which is the PGF of the system size in the standard discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue without vacations. We also present the PGF of the sojourn time. Based on these PGFs, we present useful performance measures, such as the mean number of packets in the system and the mean sojourn time of a packet.

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Delay analysis for a discretionary-priority packet-switching system

  • Hong, Sung-Jo;Takagi, Hideaki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1995.04a
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    • pp.729-738
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    • 1995
  • We consider a priority-based packet-switching system with three phases of the packet transmission time. Each packet belongs to one of several priority classes, and the packets of each class arrive at a switch in a Poison process. The switch transmits queued packets on a priority basis with three phases of preemption mechanism. Namely, the transmission time of each packet consists of a preemptive-repeat part for the header, a preemptive-resume part for the information field, and a nonpreemptive part for the trailer. By an exact analysis of the associated queueing model, we obtain the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the distribution function for the delay, i.e., the time from arrival to transmission completion, of a packet for each class. We derive a set of equations that calculates the mean response time for each class recursively. Based on this result, we plot the numerical values of the mean response times for several parameter settings. The probability generating function and the mean for the number of packets of each class present in the system at an arbitrary time are also given.

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Recurrent Neural Network Modeling of Etch Tool Data: a Preliminary for Fault Inference via Bayesian Networks

  • Nawaz, Javeria;Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Park, Jin-Su;Shin, Sung-Won;Hong, Sang-Jeen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.02a
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    • pp.239-240
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    • 2012
  • With advancements in semiconductor device technologies, manufacturing processes are getting more complex and it became more difficult to maintain tighter process control. As the number of processing step increased for fabricating complex chip structure, potential fault inducing factors are prevail and their allowable margins are continuously reduced. Therefore, one of the key to success in semiconductor manufacturing is highly accurate and fast fault detection and classification at each stage to reduce any undesired variation and identify the cause of the fault. Sensors in the equipment are used to monitor the state of the process. The idea is that whenever there is a fault in the process, it appears as some variation in the output from any of the sensors monitoring the process. These sensors may refer to information about pressure, RF power or gas flow and etc. in the equipment. By relating the data from these sensors to the process condition, any abnormality in the process can be identified, but it still holds some degree of certainty. Our hypothesis in this research is to capture the features of equipment condition data from healthy process library. We can use the health data as a reference for upcoming processes and this is made possible by mathematically modeling of the acquired data. In this work we demonstrate the use of recurrent neural network (RNN) has been used. RNN is a dynamic neural network that makes the output as a function of previous inputs. In our case we have etch equipment tool set data, consisting of 22 parameters and 9 runs. This data was first synchronized using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The synchronized data from the sensors in the form of time series is then provided to RNN which trains and restructures itself according to the input and then predicts a value, one step ahead in time, which depends on the past values of data. Eight runs of process data were used to train the network, while in order to check the performance of the network, one run was used as a test input. Next, a mean squared error based probability generating function was used to assign probability of fault in each parameter by comparing the predicted and actual values of the data. In the future we will make use of the Bayesian Networks to classify the detected faults. Bayesian Networks use directed acyclic graphs that relate different parameters through their conditional dependencies in order to find inference among them. The relationships between parameters from the data will be used to generate the structure of Bayesian Network and then posterior probability of different faults will be calculated using inference algorithms.

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Efficient Heuristics for Flowshop Scheduling for Minimizing the Makespan and Total Flowtime of Jobs

  • Hirakawa, Yasuhiro;Ishigaki, Aya
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.134-139
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    • 2011
  • The problem of scheduling in permutation flowshops has been extensively investigated by many researchers. Recently, attempts are being made to consider more than one objective simultaneously and develop algorithms to obtain a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. Varadharajan et al. (2005) presented a multi-objective simulated-annealing algorithm (MOSA) for the problem of permutation-flowshop scheduling with the objectives of minimizing the makespan and the total flowtime of jobs. The MOSA uses two initial sequences obtained using heuristics, and seeks to obtain non-dominated solutions through the implementation of a probability function, which probabilistically selects the objective of minimizing either the makespan or the total flowtime of jobs. In this paper, the same problem of heuristically developing non-dominated sequences is considered. We propose an effective heuristics based on simulated annealing (SA), in which the weighted sum of the makespan and the total flowtime is used. The essences of the heuristics are in selecting the initial sequence, setting the weight and generating a solution in the search process. Using a benchmark problem provided by Taillard (1993), which was used in the MOSA, these conditions are extracted in a large-scale experiment. The non-dominated sets obtained from the existing algorithms and the proposed heuristics are compared. It was found that the proposed heuristics drastically improved the performance of finding the non-dominated frontier.

Improving Polynomial Regression Using Principal Components Regression With the Example of the Numerical Inversion of Probability Generating Function (주성분회귀분석을 활용한 다항회귀분석 성능개선: PGF 수치역변환 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yang, Won Seok;Park, Hyun-Min
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.475-481
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    • 2015
  • We use polynomial regression instead of linear regression if there is a nonlinear relation between a dependent variable and independent variables in a regression analysis. The performance of polynomial regression, however, may deteriorate because of the correlation caused by the power terms of independent variables. We present a polynomial regression model for the numerical inversion of PGF and show that polynomial regression results in the deterioration of the estimation of the coefficients. We apply principal components regression to the polynomial regression model and show that principal components regression dramatically improves the performance of the parameter estimation.

Performance Analysis of Trellis Coded 8PSK Systems in Fading Environment (페이딩 환경하에서 Trellis 부호화된 8PSK 시스팀의 성능 분석)

  • 김현주;박상규
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.301-309
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    • 1993
  • The performance of trellis coded 8-PSK systems over m-distributed fading channel is analyzed. To compensate the performance degradation due to the fading in mobile communication channels, the trellis code which can obtain the coding gain without bandwidth expansion is used. Using the Chernoff bound and generating function techniques for the trellis coded 8-PSK systems with 4-state and 8-state, the upper bound of the bit error probability is derived. The trellis code of 8-state is better than that of 4-state in the capability of error correction. The coded performance is much better under severe fading environment.

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Optimal N-Policy of M/G/1 with Server Set-up Time under Heterogeneous Arrival Rates (서버상태의존 도착률을 갖는 M/G/l 모형의 최적 제어정책)

  • Paik, Seung-Jin;Hur, Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.20 no.43
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    • pp.153-162
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    • 1997
  • M/G/1 queueing system is one of the most widely used one to model the real system. When operating a real systems, since it often takes cost, some control policies that change the operation scheme are adopted. In particular, the N-policy is the most popular among many control policies. Almost all researches on queueing system are based on the assumption that the arrival rates of customers into the queueing system is constant, In this paper, we consider the M/G/1 queueing system whose arrival rate varies according to the servers status : idle, set-up and busy states. For this study, we construct the steady state equations of queue lengths by means of the supplementary variable method, and derive the PGF(probability generating function) of them. The L-S-T(Laplace Stieltjes transform) of waiting time and average waiting time are also presented. We also develop an algorithm to find the optimal N-value from which the server starts his set-up. An analysis on the performance measures to minimize total operation cost of queueing system is included. We finally investigate the behavior of system operation cost as the optimal N and arrival rate change by a numerical study.

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Adaptive prototype generating technique for improving performance of a p-Snake (p-Snake의 성능 향상을 위한 적응 원형 생성 기법)

  • Oh, Seung-Taek;Jun, Byung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.2757-2763
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    • 2015
  • p-Snake is an energy minimizing algorithm that applies an additional prototype energy to the existing Active Contour Model and is used to extract the contour line in the area where the edge information is unclear. In this paper suggested the creation of a prototype energy field that applies a variable prototype expressed as a combination of circle and straight line primitives, and a fudge function, to improve p-Snake's contour extraction performance. The prototype was defined based on the parts codes entered and the appropriate initial contour was extracted in each primitive zones acquired from the pre-processing process. Then, the primitives variably adjusted to create the prototype and the contour probability based on the distance to the prototype was calculated through the fuzzy function to create the prototype energy field. This was applied to p-Snake to extract the contour from 100 images acquired from various small parts and compared its similarity with the prototype to find that p-Snake made with the adaptive prototype was about 4.6% more precise than the existing Snake method.

Process Fault Probability Generation via ARIMA Time Series Modeling of Etch Tool Data

  • Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Nawaz, Javeria;Park, Jin-Su;Shin, Sung-Won;Hong, Sang-Jeen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.02a
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    • pp.241-241
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    • 2012
  • Semiconductor industry has been taking the advantage of improvements in process technology in order to maintain reduced device geometries and stringent performance specifications. This results in semiconductor manufacturing processes became hundreds in sequence, it is continuously expected to be increased. This may in turn reduce the yield. With a large amount of investment at stake, this motivates tighter process control and fault diagnosis. The continuous improvement in semiconductor industry demands advancements in process control and monitoring to the same degree. Any fault in the process must be detected and classified with a high degree of precision, and it is desired to be diagnosed if possible. The detected abnormality in the system is then classified to locate the source of the variation. The performance of a fault detection system is directly reflected in the yield. Therefore a highly capable fault detection system is always desirable. In this research, time series modeling of the data from an etch equipment has been investigated for the ultimate purpose of fault diagnosis. The tool data consisted of number of different parameters each being recorded at fixed time points. As the data had been collected for a number of runs, it was not synchronized due to variable delays and offsets in data acquisition system and networks. The data was then synchronized using a variant of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was then applied on the synchronized data. The ARIMA model combines both the Autoregressive model and the Moving Average model to relate the present value of the time series to its past values. As the new values of parameters are received from the equipment, the model uses them and the previous ones to provide predictions of one step ahead for each parameter. The statistical comparison of these predictions with the actual values, gives us the each parameter's probability of fault, at each time point and (once a run gets finished) for each run. This work will be extended by applying a suitable probability generating function and combining the probabilities of different parameters using Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). DST provides a way to combine evidence that is available from different sources and gives a joint degree of belief in a hypothesis. This will give us a combined belief of fault in the process with a high precision.

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Examining the factors influencing leaf disease intensity of Kalopanax septemlobus (Thunb. ex Murray) Koidzumi (Araliaceae) over multiple spatial scales: from the individual, forest stand, to the regions in the Japanese Archipelago

  • Sakaguchi, Shota;Yamasaki, Michimasa;Tanaka, Chihiro;Isagi, Yuji
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2012
  • We investigated leaf disease intensity of Kalopanax septemlobus (prickly castor oil tree) caused by the parasitic fungus Mycosphaerella acanthopanacis, in thirty natural host populations in the Japanese Archipelago. The disease intensity observed for individual trees were analyzed using a generalized additive model as a function of tree size, tree density, climatic terms and spatial trend surface. Individual tree size and conspecific tree density were shown to have significant negative and positive effects on disease intensity, respectively. The findings suggest that the probability of disease infection is partly determined by dispersal of infection agents (ascospores) from the fallen leaves on the ground, which can be enhanced by aggregation of host trees in a forest stand. Regional-scale spatial bias was also present in disease intensity; the populations in northern Japan and southern Kyushu were more severely infected by the fungus than those in southwestern Honshu and Shikoku. Regional variation of disease intensity was explained by both climatic factors and a trend surface term, with a latitudinal cline detected, which increases towards the north. Further research should be conducted in order to understand all of the factors generating the latitudinal cline detected in this study.