• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability experiment

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The Infiltrating Small Ship Target Detection Probability Calculation Program Design for the USV Mission Planning Suitability Analysis (무인수상정의 임무계획 적합성 분석을 위한 침투 표적 탐지율 산출 프로그램 설계)

  • Kim, Min J.;Hwang, Kun Chul;Yu, Chan Woo;Kim, Jung Hoon
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.287-293
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    • 2017
  • The naval unmanned surface vehicle (USV) conducts the surveillance operations, based on the mission plan set by the user. For setting the mission planning, the user needs to analyze the suitability of the operation for the mission planning. In this paper, we proposed a simulation program that estimates the probability of detecting targets of the mission planning in the analysis. In the simulation analysis, we design the USV's maneuvering characteristics, radar detection operational performance equipped on the USV, and targets infiltrating into surveillance area in the simulation experiment scenario. Based on the simulation results, we evaluated the mission planning suitability and find a mission planning solution recursively.

Analysis of the margin level in the KOSPI200 futures market (KOSPI200 선물 시장의 증거금 수준에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jun;Choe, In-Chan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.734-737
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    • 2004
  • When the margin level is set relatively low, margin violation probability increases and the default probability of the futures market rises. On the other hand, if the margin level is set high, the margin violation probability decreases, but the futures market becomes less attractive to hedgers as the investor's opportunity cost increases. In this paper, we investigate whether the movement of KOSPI200(Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200) futures daily prices can be modeled with the extreme value theory. Base on this investigation, we examine the validity of the margin level set by the extreme value theory. Computational results are presented to compare the extreme value distribution and the empirical distribution of margin violation in KOSPI200. Some observations and implications drawn from the computational experiment are also discussed.

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Fault Detection and Diagnosis Systems of Induction Machines using Real-Time Stochastic Modeling Approach (실시간 확률 모델링 기법을 이용한 유도기기의 고장검출 및 진단시스템)

  • Lee, Jin-Woo;Kim, Kwang-Soo;Cho, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Young-Jin;Lee, Kwon-Soon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.241-248
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents stochastic methodology based fault detection algorithm for induction motor systems. We measure current of healthy induction motors by means of hall sensor systems and then establish its probability distribution. We propose online probability density estimation which is effective in real-time implementation due to its simplicity and low computational burden. In addition, we accomplish theoretical analysis of the proposed estimation to demonstrate its convergence property by using statistical convergence and system stability theories. We apply our fault detection approach to three-phase induction motors and achieve real-time experiment for evaluating its reliability and practicability in industrial fields.

Fundamental Study on the Probability of Oyster Shell Desiccant Cooling System Driven by Renewable Energy of Photo-Voltaic Effect

  • Kim, Myoung-Jun;Yu, Jik-Su
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 2008
  • This paper has dealt with the probability of oyster shell desiccant cooling system driven by renewable energy of photo-volatic effect with fundamental experiment. The test materials for desiccant are activated charcoal, silica-gel, hi-dry, and oyster shell. The experiments were mainly performed with focusing on the observation of surface features, adsorption amounts of the adsorbent species, and the effect of temperature. Oyster shell has sufficient probability for using as desiccant in a air-conditioning system. Moreover, the heat releasing device would be attached in the system, the system based with oyster shell can be operated with high efficiency.

A Study on the Effects of Information Characteristics on the Overconfidence Phenomenon in Intuitive Probability Judgements (정보의 주요 특성이 직관적 확률판정에서의 과신현상에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Sung-Ku
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 1990
  • Previous studies have shown strong tendancy toward overconfidence in intuitive probability judgements. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relations between this overconfidence phenomenon and the three major characteristics of information, namely, the pertinance, the redundancy and the quantity. An experiment was conducted where the subjects were asked to respond to 120 questions of the same type. In each question, the subjects' task was to predict, in the light of given information, which of the two given countries would have had higher GNP in 1979 and to give the probability that their choice would be correct. The results suggests that only the pertinance of information has significant influence on the degree of overconfidence.

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Fault Diagnosis of Oil-filled Power Transformer using DGA and Intelligent Probability Model (유중가스 분석법과 지능형 확률모델을 이용한 유입변압기 고장진단)

  • Lim, Jae-Yoon;Lee, Dae-Jong;Ji, Pyeong-Shik
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.65 no.3
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    • pp.188-193
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    • 2016
  • It has been proven that the dissolved gas analysis (DGA) is the most effective and convenient method to diagnose the transformers. The DGA is a simple, inexpensive, and non intrusive technique. Among the various diagnosis methods, IEC 60599 has been widely used in transformer in service. But this method cannot offer accurate diagnosis for all the faults. This paper proposes a fault diagnosis method of oil-filled power transformers using DGA and Intelligent Probability Model. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed method, experiment is performed and its results are illustrated.

Simulated Annealing Algorithm Using Cauchy-Gaussian Probability Distributions (Cauchy와 Gaussian 확률 분포를 이용한 Simulated Annealing 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Dong-Ju;Lee, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.130-136
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    • 2010
  • In this study, we propose a new method for generating candidate solutions based on both the Cauchy and the Gaussian probability distributions in order to use the merit of the solutions generated by these distributions. The Cauchy probability distribution has larger probability in the tail region than the Gaussian distribution. Thus, the Cauchy distribution can yield higher probabilities of generating candidate solutions of large-varied variables, which in turn has an advantage of searching wider area of variable space. On the contrary, the Gaussian distribution can yield higher probabilities of generating candidate solutions of small-varied variables, which in turn has an advantage of searching deeply smaller area of variable space. In order to compare and analyze the performance of the proposed method against the conventional method, we carried out experiments using benchmarking problems of real valued functions. From the result of the experiment, we found that the proposed method based on the Cauchy and the Gaussian distributions outperformed the conventional one for most of benchmarking problems, and verified its superiority by the statistical hypothesis test.

A Fragile Watermarking Scheme Using a Arithmetic Coding (산술부호화를 이용한 연성 워터마킹 기법)

  • Piao, Cheng-Ri;Paek, Seung-Eun;Han, Seung-Soo
    • The Journal of Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, a new fragile watermarking algorithm for digital image is presented, which makes resolving the security and forgery problem of the digital image to be possible. The most suitable watermarking method that verifies the authentication and integrity of the digital image is the Wong's method, which invokes the hash function (MD5). The algorithm is safe because this method uses the hash function of the cryptology. The operations such as modulus, complement, shift, bitwise exclusive-or, bitwise inclusive-or are necessary for calculating the value of hash function. But, in this paper, an Arithmetic encoding method that only includes the multiplication operation is adopted. This technique prints out accumulative probability interval, which is obtained by multiplying the input symbol probability interval. In this paper, the initial probability interval is determined according to the value of the key, and the input sequence of the symbols is adjusted according to the key value so that the accumulative probability interval will depend on the key value. The integrity of the algorithm has been verified by experiment. The PSNR is above the 51.13db and the verifying time is $1/3{\sim}1/4$ of the verifying time of using the hash function (MD5), so, it can be used in the real-time system.

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A Parser of Definitions in Korean Dictionary based on Probabilistic Grammar Rules (확률적 문법규칙에 기반한 국어사전의 뜻풀이말 구문분석기)

  • Lee, Su Gwang;Ok, Cheol Yeong
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.448-448
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    • 2001
  • The definitions in Korean dictionary not only describe meanings of title, but also include various semantic information such as hypernymy/hyponymy, meronymy/holonymy, polysemy, homonymy, synonymy, antonymy, and semantic features. This paper purposes to implement a parser as the basic tool to acquire automatically the semantic information from the definitions in Korean dictionary. For this purpose, first we constructed the part-of-speech tagged corpus and the tree tagged corpus from the definitions in Korean dictionary. And then we automatically extracted from the corpora the frequency of words which are ambiguous in part-of-speech tag and the grammar rules and their probability based on the statistical method. The parser is a kind of the probabilistic chart parser that uses the extracted data. The frequency of words which are ambiguous in part-of-speech tag and the grammar rules and their probability resolve the noun phrase's structural ambiguity during parsing. The parser uses a grammar factoring, Best-First search, and Viterbi search In order to reduce the number of nodes during parsing and to increase the performance. We experiment with grammar rule's probability, left-to-right parsing, and left-first search. By the experiments, when the parser uses grammar rule's probability and left-first search simultaneously, the result of parsing is most accurate and the recall is 51.74% and the precision is 87.47% on raw corpus.

Real-Time Tomato Instance Tracking Algorithm by using Deep Learning and Probability Model (딥러닝과 확률모델을 이용한 실시간 토마토 개체 추적 알고리즘)

  • Ko, KwangEun;Park, Hyun Ji;Jang, In Hoon
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2021
  • Recently, a smart farm technology is drawing attention as an alternative to the decline of farm labor population problems due to the aging society. Especially, there is an increasing demand for automatic harvesting system that can be commercialized in the market. Pre-harvest crop detection is the most important issue for the harvesting robot system in a real-world environment. In this paper, we proposed a real-time tomato instance tracking algorithm by using deep learning and probability models. In general, It is hard to keep track of the same tomato instance between successive frames, because the tomato growing environment is disturbed by the change of lighting condition and a background clutter without a stochastic approach. Therefore, this work suggests that individual tomato object detection for each frame is conducted by YOLOv3 model, and the continuous instance tracking between frames is performed by Kalman filter and probability model. We have verified the performance of the proposed method, an experiment was shown a good result in real-world test data.