• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.116-122
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• 2014

This study proposes a system reliability analysis of rack storage facilities subjected to forklift colliding events. The proposed system reliability analysis consists of two steps: the first step is to identify dominant failure modes that most contribute to the failure of the whole rack facilities, and the second step is to evaluate the system failure probability. In the first step, dominant failure modes are identified by using a simulation-based selective searching technique where the contribution of a failure mode to the system failure is roughly estimated based on the distance from the origin in the space of the random variables. In the second step, the multi-scale system reliability method is used to compute the system reliability where the first-order reliability method (FORM) is initially used to evaluate the component failure probability (failure probability of one member), and then the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence are evaluated, which is called as the lower-scale reliability analysis. Since the system failure probability is comprised of the probabilities of the failure modes, a higher-scale reliability analysis is performed again based on the results of the lower-scale analyses, and the system failure probability is finally evaluated. The illustrative example demonstrates the results of the system reliability analysis of the rack storage facilities subjected to forklift impact loadings. The numerical efficiency and accuracy of the approach are compared with the Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed two-step approach is able to provide accurate reliability assessment as well as significant saving of computational time. The results of the identified failure modes additionally let us know the most-critical members and their failure sequence under the complicated configuration of the member connections.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.2B
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• pp.225-236
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• 2008

The techniques to calculate the probability precipitation for the design of hydrological projects can be determined by the point frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis. Probability precipitation usually calculated by point frequency analysis using rainfall data that is observed in rainfall observatory which is situated in the basin. Therefore, Probability precipitation through point frequency analysis need observed rainfall data for enough periods. But, lacking precipitation data can be calculated to wrong parameters. Consequently, the regional frequency analysis can supplement the lacking precipitation data. Therefore, the regional frequency analysis has weaknesses compared to point frequency analysis because of suppositions about probability distributions. In this paper, rainfall observatory in Korea did grouping by cluster analysis using position of timely precipitation observatory and characteristic time rainfall. Discordancy and heterogeneity measures verified the grouping precipitation observatory by the cluster analysis. So, there divided rainfall observatory in Korea to 6 areas, and the regional frequency analysis applies index-flood techniques and L-moment techniques. Also, the probability precipitation was calculated by the regional frequency analysis using variable kernel density function. At the results, the regional frequency analysis of the variable kernel function can utilize for decision difficulty of suitable probability distribution in other methods.

• Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.349-367
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• 2021

In this study, 85 studies on probability education from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by publishing year, journals, research subjects, and research topics. Especially, fundamental probabilistic ideas presented by Batanero et al.(2016) were applied to examine which topics were dominant in domestic probability education research. As a result, it was found that there has been a few research in probability education in Korea during the past 20 years, and the number of human subject studies was slightly more than the number of non-human subject studies. In addition, the analysis of research topics according to the fundamental probabilistic ideas showed that two topics, conditional probability and independence and combinatorial enumeration and counting, were dominant in domestic probability education research. However, while both conditional probability and independence and combinatorial enumeration and counting are introduced to young children using intuitive manners in international probability education research, subjects related to these topics were primarily high school students and pre and in-service teachers. Based on the results of this study, the implications for the goal and the direction of future probability education research were discussed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.58-66
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• 2016

This study aims to estimate the failure probability of concrete gravity dams for their risk analysis under flood situation. To the end, failure modes of concrete gravity dams and their limit state functions are proposed based on numerous review of domestic and international literatures on the dam failure cases and design standards. Three failure modes are proposed: overturning, sliding, and overstress. Based on the failure modes the limit state functions, the failure probability is assessed for a weir section and a non-weir section of a dam in Korea. As water level is rising from operational condition to extreme flood condition, the failure probability is found to be raised up to the warning condition, especially for overturning mode at the non-weir section. The result can be used to reduce the risk of the dam by random environmental variables under possible flood situation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.86 no.3
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• pp.349-359
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• 2023

This paper presents a technique for determining the optimal number of elements in stochastic finite element analysis based on reliability analysis. Using the change-of-variable perturbation stochastic finite element approach, the probability density function of the dynamic responses of stochastic structures is explicitly determined. This method combines the perturbation stochastic finite element method with the change-of-variable technique into a united model. To further examine the relationships between the random fields, discretization of the random field parameters, such as the variance function and the scale of fluctuation, is also performed. Accordingly, the reliability index is calculated based on the explicit probability density function of responses with Gaussian or non-Gaussian random fields in any number of elements corresponding to the random field discretization. The numerical examples illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for a one-dimensional cantilever reinforced concrete column and a two-dimensional steel plate shear wall. The benefit of this method is that the probability density function of responses can be obtained explicitly without the use simulation techniques. Any type of random variable with any statistical distribution can be incorporated into the calculations, regardless of the restrictions imposed by the type of statistical distribution of random variables. Consequently, this method can be utilized as a suitable guideline for the efficient implementation of stochastic finite element analysis of structures, regardless of the statistical distribution of random variables.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.360-373
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• 2021

Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.

• Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.101-112
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• 2017

We investigated the neural representation of reward probability recognition and its neural connectivity with other regions of the brain. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we used a simple guessing task with different probabilities of obtaining rewards across trials to assay local and global regions processing reward probability. The results of whole brain analysis demonstrated that lateral prefrontal cortex, inferior parietal lobe, and postcentral gyrus were activated during probability-based decision making. Specifically, the higher the expected value was, the more these regions were activated. Fronto-parietal connectivity, comprising inferior parietal regions and right lateral prefrontal cortex, conjointly engaged during high reward probability recognition compared to low reward condition, regardless of whether the reward information was extrinsically presented. Finally, the result of a regression analysis identified that cortico-subcortical connectivity was strengthened during the high reward anticipation for the subjects with higher cognitive impulsivity. Our findings demonstrate that interregional functional involvement is involved in valuation based on reward probability and that personality trait such as cognitive impulsivity plays a role in modulating the connectivity among different brain regions.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.245-254
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• 2008

According to the $7^{th}$ reform of high school education curriculum, contents on probability and statistics in mathematics of high school curriculum have been expanded compared to the previous curriculum. Thus if the curriculum contains the contents to achieve the goals for probability and statistics, more efficient education on statistics is expected to meet the needs of information age. In this thesis, we studied through network analysis if contents on probability and statistics in mathematics of high school curriculum are composed to achieve the goals. We reviewed contents on probability and statistics in mathematics of the $7^{th}$ reform of high school curriculum whether they are conformed the purpose and direction of the reform or not. As a result, the concept of probability distribution and statistical estimation with a random variable was described clearly. But, census and sample survey were not connected with other items. In a part, there were expressional mistakes.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.2
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• pp.285-290
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• 2010

We investigate the outage probability in terms of QoS (quality of service) in indoor PLC network. We consider various kinds of appliances for realistic indoor PLC network. For estimation of the outage probability, we calculate the time-varying channel responses considering the loading conditions based on regular human activities and include the additive noise. We calculate the outage probability for each terminal and investigate relationship between the outage probability and the channel length, and transmit powers. Our results suggest that the outage probability is increased when the channel length becomes longer because more appliances affect the amount of reduced channel capacity and is not improved distinctly for very high and low outage threshold by increasing the transmit power. However, we can see outage probability improvement for 30% outage threshold case by increasing the transmit power.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.325-328
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• 1996

In this paper, we proposed an estimation method of a posterior probability and PDF(Probability density function) using a feed forward neural network and code books of VQ(vector quantization). In this study, We estimates a posterior probability and probability density function, which compose a new parameter with well-known Mel cepstrum and verificate the performance for the five vowels taking from syllables by NN(neural network) and PNN(probabilistic neural network). In case of new parameter, showed the best result by probabilistic neural network and recognition rates are average 83.02%.