• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.159-167
• /
• 2004

The compressive strength of concrete is a criterion to produce concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of concrete at the construction site. Therefore, strength prediction before the placement of concrete is highly desirable. This study presents the probabilistic technique for predicting the compressive strength of concrete on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation of the strength is based on the probabilistic neural network which is an effective tool for pattern classification problem and gives a probabilistic result, not a deterministic value. In this study, verifications for the applicability of the probabilistic neural networks were performed using the test results of concrete compressive strength. The estimated strengths are also compared with the results of the actual compression tests. It has been found that the present methods are very efficient and reasonable in predicting the compressive strength of concrete probabilistically.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.76-86
• /
• 2007

Construction development work invents profit as those finalize object, and a make or break success of project depends on correct analysis and forecast business feasibility at project early. Business feasibility study would be decision-making under precarious situation because is connoting uncertainty that is future. estimate at present visual point essentially. Under uncertainty, a decision-making method is based on probability theory of statistics, but business feasibility study had applied with not feasibility study by probabilistic decision method but it by determinism derision method so far. Therefore in this study doing decision-making by a probability theory method for successful project at early business feasibility study, it present a probabilistic study method that use simulation that can supply a little more correct and reliable data to decision-maker As result, a probabilistic study method is more suitable than deterministic study method as technique for a financial feasibility study of construction development work. Making good use of this probabilistic study method at important business or careful decision-making, because efficient Judgment that is based accuracy and authoritativeness may become available.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.50 no.8
• /
• pp.563-577
• /
• 2017

As the uncertainty of precipitation increases due to climate change, seasonal forecasting and the use of weather forecasts become essential for efficient water resources management. In this study, the categorical probabilistic long-term forecasts implemented by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since June 2014 was evaluated using assessment indicators of Hit Rate, Reliability Diagram, and Relative Operating Curve (ROC) and a technique for obtaining quantitative precipitation estimates based on probabilistic forecasts was proposed. The probabilistic long-term forecasts showed its maximum predictability of 48% and the quantified precipitation estimates were closely matched with actual observations; maximum correlation coefficient (R) in predictability evaluation for 100% accurate and actual weather forecasts were 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. A precipitation quantification approach utilizing probabilistic forecasts proposed in this study is expected to enable water management considering the uncertainty of precipitation. This method is also expected to be a useful tool for supporting decision-making in the long-term planning for water resources management and reservoir operations.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.16 no.6
• /
• pp.94-99
• /
• 1997

This paper describes a technique of probabilistic spectral subtraction which uses the knowledge of both noise and speech so as to reduce automatic speech recognition errors in noisy environments. Spectral subtraction method estimates a noise prototype in non-speech intervals and the spectrum of clean speech is obtained from the spectrum of noisy speech by subtracting this noise prototype. Thus noise can not be suppressed effectively using a single noise prototype in case the characteristics of the noise prototype are different from those of the noise contained in input noisy speech. To modify such a drawback, multiple noise prototypes are used in probabilistic subtraction method. In this paper, the probabilistic characteristics of noise and the knowledge of speech which is embedded in hidden Markov models trained in clean environments are used to suppress noise. Futhermore, dynamic feature parameters are considered as well as static feature parameters for effective noise suppression. The proposed method reduced error rates in the recognition of 50 Korean words. The recognition rate was 86.25% with the probabilistic subtraction, 72.75% without any noise suppression method and 80.25% with spectral subtraction at SNR(Signal-to-Noise Ratio) 10 dB.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.46-53
• /
• 2005

This paper presents a new approach for determining an accurate incentive levels of Direct Load Control (DLC) program using probabilistic techniques. The economic analysis of DLC resources needs to identify the hourly-by-hourly expected energy-not-served resulting from the random outage characteristics of generators as well as to reflect the availability and duration of DLC resources, which results the computational explosion. Therefore, the conventional methods are based on the scenario approaches to reduce the computation time as well as to avoid the complexity of economic studies. In this paper, we have developed a new technique based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the required expected load control amount in each hour and to decide the incentive level satisfying the economic constraints. In addition, we have applied the variance reduction technique to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the suggested method, the numerical studies have been performed for the modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
• /
• v.11D no.4
• /
• pp.983-990
• /
• 2004

Multiple-count problem is occurred when rectangle objects span across several buckets. The CD histogram is a technique which selves this problem by keeping four sub-histograms corresponding to the four points of rectangle. Although It provides exact results with constant response time, there is still a considerable issue. Since it is based on a query window which aligns with a given grid, a number of errors nay be occurred when it is applied to real applications. In this paper, we propose selectivity estimation techniques using the generalized cumulative density histogram based on two probabilistic models : \circled1 probabilistic model which considers the query window area ratio, \circled2 probabilistic model which considers intersection area between a given grid and objects. Our method has the capability of eliminating an impact of the restriction on query window which the existing cumulative density histogram has. We experimented with real datasets to evaluate the proposed methods. Experimental results show that the proposed technique is superior to the existing selectivity estimation techniques. Furthermore, selectivity estimation technique based on probabilistic model considering the intersection area is very accurate(less than 5% errors) at 20% query window. The proposed techniques can be used to accurately quantify the selectivity of the spatial range query on rectangle objects.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.46-52
• /
• 2017

Recently durability design based on deterministic or probabilistic method has been attempted since service life evaluation in RC(Reinforced Concrete) structure exposed to chloride attack is important. The deterministic durability design contains a reasonable method with time effect on surface chloride content and diffusion coefficient, however the probabilistic design procedure has no consideration of time effect on both. In the paper, a technique on PDF(Probability of Durability Failure) evaluation is proposed considering time effect on diffusion and surface chloride content through equivalent surface chloride content which has same induced chloride content within a given period and cover depth. With varying period to built-up from 10 to 30 years and maximum surface chloride content from $5.0kg/m^3$ to $10.0kg/m^3$, the changing PDF and the related service life are derived. The proposed method can be reasonably applied to actual durability design with preventing conservative design parameters and considering the same analysis conditions of the deterministic method.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.93-100
• /
• 2012

In this paper, the deterministic optimal design for the tail plane made of composite materials is conducted under the deterministic loading condition and compared with that of the metallic materials. Next, the reliability analysis with five random variables such as loading and material properties of unidirectional prepreg is conducted to examine the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design results. The MATLAB programing is used for reliability analysis combined with FEA S/W(COMSOL) for structural analysis. The laminated composite is assumed to the equivalent orthotropic material using classical laminated plate theory. The response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are adopted to reduce computational cost with satisfying the accuracy in reliability analysis. As a result, structural weight of composite materials is lighter than that of metals in deterministic optimal design. However, the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design of the tail plane structures is too high to be neglected. The sensitivity of each variable is also estimated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis to figure out which variables are sensitive to failure. The computational cost is considerably reduced when response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are used. The study of the computationally inexpensive method for reliability-based design optimization will be necessary in further work.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.6 no.2 s.21
• /
• pp.25-35
• /
• 2006

Recently seismic fragility analysis method has been widely used for the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of infrastructures such as nuclear power plants, buildings and bridges because of its probabilistic characteristics. Furthermore, this technique has been applied to large-scale social systems consisted of each infrastructures by combing GIS. In this paper, the applicability of this technique to domestic infrastructural systems was studied. The transportation network was selected as one of these domestic infrastructural systems. Example studies were peformed about Changwon city. Nonlinear time history analysis, with a maximal likelihood approach were conducted to establish the fragility curves of each infrastrucures (bridges). GIS analysis was also applied to the analysis of whole infrastructural systems. The results show that it is very useful to predict seismic probabilistic risk assessment of this domestic transportation network. However, it also shows that further studies such as more suitable damage criterion to domestic structure and precise nonlinear analysis techniques should be developed to predict more precise results.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.13 no.6
• /
• pp.1263-1268
• /
• 2018

In this paper, a video analysis is proposed to implement video surveillance system with deep learning object detection and probabilistic data association filter for tracking multiple objects, and suggests its implementation using GPU. The proposed video analysis technique involves object detection and object tracking sequentially. The deep learning network architecture uses ResNet for object detection and applies probabilistic data association filter for multiple objects tracking. The proposed video analysis technique can be used to detect intruders illegally trespassing any restricted area or to count the number of people entering a specified area. As a results of simulations and experiments, 48 channels of videos can be analyzed at a speed of about 27 fps and real-time video analysis is possible through RTSP protocol.