• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic sensitivity

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Working memory and sensitivity to prosody in spoken language processing (언어 처리에서 운율 제약 활용과 작업 기억의 관계)

  • Lee, Eun-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.249-267
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    • 2012
  • Individual differences in working memory predict qualitative differences in language processing. High span comprehenders are better able to integrate probabilistic information such as plausibility and animacy, the use of which requires the computation of real world knowledge in syntactic parsing (e.g.,[1]). However, it is unclear whether similar individual differences exist in the use of informative prosodic cues. This study examines whether working memory modulates the use of prosodic boundary information in attachment ambiguity resolution. Prosodic boundaries were manipulated in globally ambiguous relative clause sentences. The results show that high span listeners are more likely to be sensitive to the distinction between different types of prosodic boundaries than low span listeners. The findings suggest that like high-level constraints, the use of low-level prosodic information is resource demanding.

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Damage detection using finite element model updating with an improved optimization algorithm

  • Xu, Yalan;Qian, Yu;Song, Gangbing;Guo, Kongming
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.191-208
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    • 2015
  • The sensitivity-based finite element model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection of structures based on measured modal parameters. Finding an optimization technique with high efficiency and fast convergence is one of the key issues for model updating-based damage detection. A new simple and computationally efficient optimization algorithm is proposed and applied to damage detection by using finite element model updating. The proposed method combines the Gauss-Newton method with region truncation of each iterative step, in which not only the constraints are introduced instead of penalty functions, but also the searching steps are restricted in a controlled region. The developed algorithm is illustrated by a numerically simulated 25-bar truss structure, and the results have been compared and verified with those obtained from the trust region method. In order to investigate the reliability of the proposed method in damage detection of structures, the influence of the uncertainties coming from measured modal parameters on the statistical characteristics of detection result is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulation, and the probability of damage detection is estimated using the probabilistic method.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment for High Level Nuclear Waste Repository System

  • Kim, Taw-Woon;Woo, Kab-Koo;Lee, Kun-Jai
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.53-72
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    • 1991
  • An integrated model is developed in this paper for the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste repository. This integrated model consists of two simple mathematical models. One is a multiple-barrier failure model of the repository system based on constant failure rates which provides source terms to biosphere. The other is a biosphere model which has multiple pathways for radionuclides to reach to human. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the risk assessment of high level radioactive waste repository, Latin hypercube sampling and rank correlation techniques are applied to this model. The former is cost-effective for large computer programs because it gives smaller error in estimating output distribution even with smaller number of runs compared to crude Monte Carlo technique. The latter is good for generating dependence structure among samples of input parameters. It is also used to find out the most sensitive, or important, parameter groups among given input parameters. The methodology of the mathematical modelling with statistical analysis will provide useful insights to the decision-making of radioactive waste repository selection and future researches related to uncertain and sensitive input parameters.

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Upgrading equivalent static method of seismic designs to performance-based procedure

  • Allahvirdizadeh, Reza;Mohammadi, Mohammad Ali
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.849-865
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    • 2016
  • Beside the invaluable advancements in constructing more secure buildings, the post-earthquake inspections have reported considerable damages. In other words, the modern buildings satisfactorily decrease fatalities but the monetary impacts still mostly remain an unsolved concern of the stakeholders, the insurance companies and society together. Therefore, the fundamental target of the researches shifted from current force-based seismic design regulations to the Performance-Based earthquake engineering (PBEE). At the moment, some probabilistic approaches, such as PEER framework have been developed to predict the performance of building at any desired hazard levels. These procedures are so time-consuming, to which many details are needed to be assigned. It causes their usage to be limited. On that account, developing more straightforward methods seems indispensable. The main objective of the present paper is to adapt an equivalent static method in different damage states. Consequently, constant damage spectrums corresponding to different limit states, soil types, ductility and fundamental periods are plotted and tri-linear formulas are proposed for further applications. Moreover, the sensitivity of outcomes to the employed hysteresis model, ductility, viscous damping and site soil type is investigated. Finally, a case study building with moment-resisting R.C. frame is evaluated based on the both of new and current methods to ensure applicability of the proposed method.

Reliability-based assessment of steel bridge deck using a mesh-insensitive structural stress method

  • Ye, X.W.;Yi, Ting-Hua;Wen, C.;Su, Y.H.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.367-382
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    • 2015
  • This paper aims to conduct the reliability-based assessment of the welded joint in the orthotropic steel bridge deck by use of a mesh-insensitive structural stress (MISS) method, which is an effective numerical procedure to determine the reliable stress distribution adjacent to the weld toe. Both the solid element model and the shell element model are first established to investigate the sensitivity of the element size and the element type in calculating the structural stress under different loading scenarios. In order to achieve realistic condition assessment of the welded joint, the probabilistic approach based on the structural reliability theory is adopted to derive the reliability index and the failure probability by taking into account the uncertainties inherent in the material properties and load conditions. The limit state function is formulated in terms of the structural resistance of the material and the load effect which is described by the structural stress obtained by the MISS method. The reliability index is computed by use of the first-order reliability method (FORM), and compared with a target reliability index to facilitate the safety assessment. The results achieved from this study reveal that the calculation of the structural stress using the MISS method is insensitive to the element size and the element type, and the obtained structural stress results serve as a reliable basis for structural reliability analysis.

Probabilistic failure analysis of underground flexible pipes

  • Tee, Kong Fah;Khan, Lutfor Rahman;Chen, Hua-Peng
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.167-183
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    • 2013
  • Methods for estimating structural reliability using probability ideas are well established. When the residual ultimate strength of a buried pipeline is exceeded the limit, breakage becomes imminent and the overall reliability of the pipe distribution network is reduced. This paper is concerned with estimating structural failure of underground flexible pipes due to corrosion induced excessive deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress subject to externally applied loading. With changes of pipe wall thickness due to corrosion, the moment of inertia and the cross-sectional area of pipe wall are directly changed with time. Consequently, the chance of survival or the reliability of the pipe material is decreased over time. One numerical example has been presented for a buried steel pipe to predict the probability of failure using Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation. Then the parametric study and sensitivity analysis have been conducted on the reliability of pipeline with different influencing factors, e.g. pipe thickness, diameter, backfill height etc.

Development of a Computer Code, CONPAS, for an Integrated Level 2 PSA

  • Ahn, Kwang-Il;Kim, See-Darl;Song, Yong-Mann;Jin, Young-Ho;Park, Chung K.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.58-74
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    • 1998
  • A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS (CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical, and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree (CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the detailed supporting event tree (DSET) for its detailed quantification. For the integrated analysis of Level 2 PSA, the code utilizes five distinct, but closely related modules. Its computational feasibility to real PSAs has been assessed through an application to the UCN 3&4 full scope Level 2 PSA. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: (1) systematic uncertainty analysis / importance analysis / sensitivity analysis, (2) table / graphical display & print, (3) employment of the recent Level 2 PSA technologies, and (4) highly effective user interface. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the key features of CONPAS code and results of its feasibility study.

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Improving Durability Performance of Reinforced Concrete Structures with Probabilistic Analysis

  • Ferreira, Rui Miguel
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2008
  • In recent years, much research work has been performed on durability design and long-term performance of concrete structures in marine environments. In particular, the development of new procedures for probability-based durability design has been shown to provide a more realistic basis for the analysis. This approach has been successfully applied to several new concrete structures, where requirements for a more controlled durability and service life have been specified. For reinforced concrete structures in a marine environment, it is commonly assumed that the dominant degradation mechanism is the corrosion of the reinforcement due to the presence of chlorides. The design approach is based on the verification of durability limit states, examples of which are: depassivation of reinforcement, cracking and spalling due to corrosion, and collapse due to cross section loss of reinforcement. With this design approach the probability of failure can be determined as a function of time. In the present paper, a probability-based durability performance analysis is used in order to demonstrate the importance of the durability design approach of concrete structures in marine environments. In addition, the sensitivity of the various durability parameters affecting and controlling the durability of concrete structures in a marine environment is studied. Results show that the potential of this approach to assist durability design decisions making process is great. Based the crucial information generated, it is possible to prolong the service life of structures while simultaneously optimizing the final design solution.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ABOUT THE METHODS OF UTILIZING THE HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATION FOR KOREAN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING (I) : THEORETICAL METHODS AND FORMULATIONS

  • Jeong, Chang-Sam;Lee, Sang-Jin;Ko, Ick-Hwan;Heo, Jun-Haeng;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2005
  • Nowadays Climate disasters are frequently happening due to occasional occurrences of EI Nino and La Nina events and among them, water shortage is one of the serious problems. To cope with this problem, climate model simulations can give very helpful information. To utilize the climate model for enhancing the water resources planning techniques, probabilistic measures of the effectiveness of global climate model (GCM) simulations of an indicator variable for discriminating high versus low regional observations of a target variable are proposed in this study. The objective of this study is to present the various analysis methods to find the suitable application methods of GCM information for Korean water resources planning. The basic formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two variables. The various methods for adopting correct association, changing the window size, discrimination condition, and the use of temporally down scaled data were proposed to find out the suitable way for Korean water resources planning.

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Evaluation of Deterioration on Steel Bridges Based on Bridge Condition Ratings

  • Park, Chan-Hee
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.166-171
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    • 2004
  • Recent developments in Bridge Management Systems (BMS) and in Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) of bridges, have raised the need for evaluation procedure of future condition (Deterioration) of a bridge. Predicting future deterioration is not an easy task due to limited past data to extrapolate from and also due to difficulty in measuring actual deterioration such as section loss of steel on an actual steel bridge. Also, increase in live load and reduction of resistance are random variables, thus a probabilistic approach should be adopted for determining the future deterioration. Due to difficulties in evaluation of future deterioration on steel bridges, accepting uncertainties within a reasonable error, a deterministic procedure using bridge condition rating can be a useful tool for projection of future condition of bridges to identify repair and maintenance needs. The object of this paper is to determine applicability of evaluating deterioration of steel bridge components based on Bridge condition ratings. Bridge condition ratings of bridge components show wide variation for bridges of same age and does not directly correlate well with the age of the bridge and/or deterioration of the bridge. High uncertainty can be reduced by breaking down the rating and by sensitivity analysis. From refined condition rating data, generalized deterioration profile of structures based on age can be derived. Examples are shown for sample bridges in USA. Approximately, 3,000 short to medium span steel bridges were listed in the inventory database. Results show wide variation of rating factors but by subdividing the Bridge condition ratings for various categories general deterioration profiles of steel bridges can be determined.