• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제24권1호
• /
• pp.215-224
• /
• 2000

In order to reduce the variation effects of uncertainties in the engineering environments, new robust optimization method, which considers the uncertainties in design process, is proposed. Both design variables and system parameters are considered as random variables about their nominal values. To ensure the robustness of performance function, a new objective is set to minimize the variance of that function. Constraint variations are handled by introducing probability constraints. Probability constraints are solved by the advanced first order second moment (AFOSM) method based on the reliability theory. The proposed robust optimization method has an advantage that the second derivatives of the constraints are not required. The suggested method is examined by solving three examples and the results are compared with those for deterministic case and those available in literature.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산유체공학회 2004년도 춘계 학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.9-16
• /
• 2004

This study presents results of aerodynamic wing optimization under uncertainties. To consider uncertainties, an alternative strategy for reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) is developed. The strategy utilizes a single loop algorithm and a sequential approximation optimization(SAO) technique. The SAO strategy relies on the trust region-SQP framework which validates approximated functions at every iteration. Further improvement in computational efficiency is achieved by applying the same sensitivity of limit state functions in the reliability analysis and in the equivalent deterministic constraint calculation. The framework is examined by solving an analytical test problem to show that the proposed framework has the computational efficiency over existing methods. The proposed strategy enables exploiting the RBDO technique in aerodynamic design. For the aerodynamic wing design problem, the solution converges to the reliable point satisfying the probabilistic constraints.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제2권5호
• /
• pp.331-354
• /
• 2002

Tethers of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) are a series structural system where fatigue is the principal mode of failure. The present study is devoted to the fatigue and fatigue fracture reliability study of these tethers. For this purpose, two limit state functions have been derived. These limit state functions are based on S-N curve and fracture mechanics approaches. A detailed methodology for the reliability analysis has then been presented. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to study the influence of various random variables on tether reliability. The design point, important for probabilistic design, is located on the failure surface. Effect of wind, water depth, service life and number of welded joints are investigated. The effect of uncertainties in various random variables on tether fatigue reliability is highlighted.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.9-21
• /
• 2004

The present study aims at the reliability analysis of steel towers against the limit state of deflection. For this purpose tip deflection of the tower has been obtained after carrying out the dynamic analysis of the tower using modal method. This tip deflection is employed for subsequent reliability analysis. A limit state function based on serviceability criterion of deflection is derived in terms of random variables. A complete procedure of reliability computation is then presented. To study the influence of various random variables on tower reliability, sensitivity analysis has been carried out. Design points, important for probabilistic design of towers, are also located on the failure surface. Some parametric studies have also been included to obtain the results of academic and field interest.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(2)
• /
• pp.493-498
• /
• 1996

A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS(CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree(CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the large supporting event tree(LSET) for its detailed quantification. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: computational aspects including systematic uncertainty analysis, importance analysis, and sensitivity analysis, reporting aspects including tabling and graphic, and user-friend interface.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제57권7호
• /
• pp.1129-1134
• /
• 2008

This paper proposes a reliability evaluation for interconnection planning using a tie line equivalent assisting generator model (TEAG) that considers the uncertainties of the interconnected transmission systems and the tie lines. Development of this model was triggered by the need to perform probabilistic reliability evaluations on the NEAREST (North East Asia Region Electric Systems Tied) interconnection. The TEAG is the basis for the newly developed interconnection systems reliability evaluation computer program, NEAREL. The model is capable of considering uncertainties associated with generators, tie lines, and the tied grids. Reliability evaluations for six interconnection scenarios involving the power systems of six countries in the Asian north eastern region were performed using NEAREL. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine reasonable tie line capacities for three interconnected country scenarios of the six countries. Test results and summarized comments of the scenarios are included in the paper.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.25-30
• /
• 2015

In the present study, complex leakage probabilities of nuclear pipes due to fatigue and stress corrosion cracking are evaluated by using the PINTIN(Piping INTegrity INner flaws) that is developed based on the existing PRAISE(Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) program. With regard to the aging and crack instability, small leak and big leak probabilities are calculated for several pipes in a reactor coolant system of domestic nuclear plant. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is also performed to find out the effect of parameters for the leakage of pipes, which shows the coolant temperature is the most influencing parameter.

• 터널과지하공간
• /
• 제14권3호
• /
• pp.203-214
• /
• 2004

방사성폐기물 안전성 평가를 위해 가상 부지를 선정하고 경계 조건을 도입하였다. 연안에 처분장이 위치할 경우를 가상하여 처분장 심도 및 단층까지의 거리등에 대한 지하수 유동 민감도를 분석하였다. 또한 처분장 진입 터널이 지하수 유동에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 이를 통하여 각 암반별 지하수 이동 거리 및 시간을 CONNECTFLOW를 이용해 산정하고, 그 결과들이 확률론적 방사선적 안전성 종합 평가 코드인 MASCOT의 입력 자료로 활용되도록 하였다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국정밀공학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문요약집
• /
• pp.89-89
• /
• 2004

결정적인 알고리즘과 입력정보의 사용은 평가된 해석과 실제 시스템 값과의 차이로 잘못된 결론을 이끌지도 모른다. 실제 시스템은 대부분 각각의 입력 매개변수들(input parameters)과 관계된 넓은 공차 영역(tolerance band)을 가지고 있어서 입력정보로 하나의 단일한 값을 할당하는 것이 어렵다. 단일 입력에 대한 한가지 해는 변동의 이해 없이 제한된 값이라는 것을 인식할 필요가 있는데 대개 결정론적 설계는 형상과 관련된 치수변동, 항복강도나 부재의 밀도, 탄성계수와 같은 재료 물성치의 불확실성(uncertainty)과 시스템에 작용하는 하중의 변동 등을 직접 고려하지 않고 설계를 수행하기 때문에 수용할 수 있는 오차의 범위 안에서 시스템의 응답을 정확히 평가하기가 쉽지 않았다.(중략)

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
• /
• 제16권4호
• /
• pp.537-547
• /
• 2015

A Monte Carlo (MC) simulation was conducted to predict the reliability of a newly developed pyrotechnic pin puller. The reliability model is based on the stress-strength interference model that states that failure occurs if the stress exceeds the strength. In this study, the stress is considered to be the energy consumed by movement of a pin shaft, and the strength is considered to be the energy generated by pyrotechnic combustion for driving the pin shaft. Failure of the pin puller can thus be defined as the consumed energy being greater than the generated energy. These energies were calculated using a performance model formulated in the previous study of the present authors. The MC method was used to synthesize the probability densities of the two energies and evaluate the reliability of the pin puller. From a probabilistic perspective, the calculated reliability was compared to a deterministic safety factor. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine which design parameters most affect the reliability.