• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic process

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Embodied Approach to the Concept of Vector and its Application

  • Cho, Han Hyuk;Noh, Chang Kyun;Choi, In Yong
    • Research in Mathematical Education
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.289-305
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    • 2014
  • The current mathematical education calls for a learning environment from the constructionism perspective that actively creates mathematical objects. This research first analyzes JavaMAL's expression 'move' that enables students to express the agent's behavior constructively before they learn vector as a formal concept. Since expression 'move' is based on a coordinate, it naturally corresponds with the expression of vectors used in school mathematics and lets students take an embodied approach to the concept of vector. Furthermore, as a design tool, expression 'move' can be used in various activities that include vector structure. This research studies the educational significance entailed in JavaMAL's expression 'move'.

Development of an Optimization Technique for Robust Design of Mechanical Structures (기계 구조의 강건 설계를 위한 최적화 기법의 개발)

  • Jeong, Do-Hyeon;Lee, Byeong-Chae
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.24 no.1 s.173
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2000
  • In order to reduce the variation effects of uncertainties in the engineering environments, new robust optimization method, which considers the uncertainties in design process, is proposed. Both design variables and system parameters are considered as random variables about their nominal values. To ensure the robustness of performance function, a new objective is set to minimize the variance of that function. Constraint variations are handled by introducing probability constraints. Probability constraints are solved by the advanced first order second moment (AFOSM) method based on the reliability theory. The proposed robust optimization method has an advantage that the second derivatives of the constraints are not required. The suggested method is examined by solving three examples and the results are compared with those for deterministic case and those available in literature.

Fatigue Reliability Analysis Model for GFRP Composite Structures (GFRP 복합구조의 피로신뢰성 해석모형에 관한 연구)

  • 조효남;신재철;이승재
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1991.10a
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    • pp.29-32
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    • 1991
  • It is well known that the fatigue damage process in composite materials is very complicated due to complex failure mechanisms that comprise debounding, matrix cracking, delamination and fiber splitting of laminates. Therefore, the residual strength, instead of a single dominant crack length, is chosen to describe the criticality of the damage accumulated in the sublaminate. In this study, two models for residual strength degradation established by Yang-Liu and Tanimoto-Ishikawa that are capable of predicting the statistical distribution of both fatigue life and residual strength have been investigated and compared. Statistical methodologies for fatigue life prediction of composite materials have frequently been adopted. However, these are usually based on a simplified probabilistic approach considering only the variation of fatigue test data. The main object of this work is to propose a fatigue reliability analysis model which accounts for the effect of all sources of variation such as fabrication and workmanship, error in the fatigue model, load itself, etc. The proposed model is examined using the previous experimental data of GFRP and it is shown that it can be practically applied for fatigue problems in composite materials.

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Probability Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach (위험도 기반 접근법에 의한 선박 복원성의 확률 예측)

  • Long, Zhan-Jun;Jeong, Jae-Hun;Moon, Byung-Young
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.42-47
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    • 2013
  • Ship stability prediction is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading. Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of ship stability. The survival probability of ships encountering with different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

Bayesian Model for Cost Estimation of Construction Projects

  • Kim, Sang-Yon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2011
  • Bayesian network is a form of probabilistic graphical model. It incorporates human reasoning to deal with sparse data availability and to determine the probabilities of uncertain cases. In this research, bayesian network is adopted to model the problem of construction project cost. General information, time, cost, and material, the four main factors dominating the characteristic of construction costs, are incorporated into the model. This research presents verify a model that were conducted to illustrate the functionality and application of a decision support system for predicting the costs. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to estimate parameter distributions. Furthermore, it is shown that not all the parameters are normally distributed. In addition, cost estimates based on the Gibbs output is performed. It can enhance the decision the decision-making process.

QUALITY IMPROVEMENT FOR BRAKE JUDDER USING DESIGN FOR SIX SIGMA WITH RESPONSE SURFACE METHOD AND SIGMA BASED ROBUST DESIGN

  • Kim, H.-S.;Kim, C.-B.;Yim, H.-J.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.193-201
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    • 2003
  • The problem of brake judder is typically caused by defects of quality manufacturing. DFSS (Design for six sigma) is a design process for quality improvement. DFSS will result in more improved but less expensive quality products. This paper presents an implementation of DFSS for quality improvement of the brake judder of heavy-duty trucks. Carrying out 5 steps of DFSS, the major reasons for defects of quality are found. The numerical approximation of the brake system is derived by means of the response surface method. Its quality for brake judder is improved by using the sigma based robust design methodology. Results are compared between the conventional deterministic optimal design and the proposed sigma based robust design. The proposed one shows that manufacturing cost may increase as the quality level increase. The proposed one, however, is more economical in aspect of the overall cost since the probability of failure dramatically goes down.

Analysis of Optimal Buffer Capacities in 3-node Tandem Queues with Blocking (3-노(盧)드 유한 버퍼 일렬대기행렬에서의 최적 버퍼 크기에 대한 분석)

  • Seo, Dong-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.881-889
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    • 2005
  • In this study, we consider characteristics of waiting times in single-server 3-node tandem queues with a Poisson arrival process, finite buffers and deterministic or non-overlapping service times at each queue. There are three buffers: one at the first node is infinite and the others are finite. The explicit expressions of waiting times in all areas of the systems, which are driven as functions of finite buffer capacities, show that the sojourn time does not depend on the finite buffer capacities and also allow one to compute and compare characteristics of waiting times at all areas of the system under two blocking policies: communication and manufacturing blocking. As an application of these results, moreover, an optimization problem which determines the smallest buffer capacities satisfying predetermined probabilistic constraints on waiting times is considered. Some numerical examples are also provided.

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Risk Sharing in the Commercialization Step of National R&D Project

  • Han, Kyeong-Hee;Kim, Soung-Hie
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 1986
  • Nations, especially developing countries, hope to license the technology developed at the expense of government Research and Development (R&D) investment to the corresponding firms for commercial exploitation. Since commercial process is owing to lots of risk, firms have to grope the possibility of forming a partnership in order to reduce the risk. Therefore, a joint venture between firms would be needed to share the risk. This methodology suggests a way that probabilistic information of commercial project payoffs can be obtained using experts in project evaluation committee and the ratio of individual firm's investment size can be derived using risk sharing concept. Also simple examples are given.

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Comparison and Analysis of Competition Strategies in Competitive Coevolutionary Algorithms (경쟁 공진화 알고리듬에서 경쟁전략들의 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Yeo Keun;Kim, Jae Yun
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2002
  • A competitive coevolutionary algorithm is a probabilistic search method that imitates coevolution process through evolutionary arms race. The algorithm has been used to solve adversarial problems. In the algorithms, the selection of competitors is needed to evaluate the fitness of an individual. The goal of this study is to compare and analyze several competition strategies in terms of solution quality, convergence speed, balance between competitive coevolving species, population diversity, etc. With two types of test-bed problems, game problems and solution-test problems, extensive experiments are carried out. In the game problems, sampling strategies based on fitness have a risk of providing bad solutions due to evolutionary unbalance between species. On the other hand, in the solution-test problems, evolutionary unbalance does not appear in any strategies and the strategies using information about competition results are efficient in solution quality. The experimental results indicate that the tournament competition can progress an evolutionary arms race and then is successful from the viewpoint of evolutionary computation.

A Study on FMEDA Process for SIL Certification : A Case Study of a Flame Scanner (SIL 인증을 위한 FMEDA 프로세스 연구 : 화염검출기 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sung Kyu;Kim, Yong Soo
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.422-430
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    • 2012
  • In this article, we introduced the estimation method by 'Safety Integrity Level'(SIL) for the criterion of safety assurance and performed a case study on a flame scanner. SIL requires probabilistic evaluation of each set of equipment used to reduce risk in a safety related system. FMEDA(Failure Modes, Effects and Diagnostic Analysis) method is widely used to evaluate the safety levels and provides information on the failure rates and failure mode distributions necessary to calculate a diagnostic coverage factor for a part or a component. Basically, two parameters resulting from FMEDA are used for SIL classification of the device : SFF(Safe Failure Fraction) and PFD(Probability of Failure on Demand). In this case study, it is concluded that the flame scanner is designed to fulfill the condition of SIL 3 in the aspect of SFF and PFD.