• 한국안전학회지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.104-118
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• 2003

It has been criticized that conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) have been focused on the quantification of human error probability (HEP) without detailed analysis of human cognitive processes such as situation assessment or decision-making which are crticial to successful response to emergency situations. This paper introduces a new human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), focused on the qualitative error analysis of emergency tasks from the viewpoint of the performance of human cognitive function. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model and a taxonomy of influencing factors. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, overall human error analysis process is designed considering the cognitive demand of the required task. The application to an emergency task shows that the proposed method is useful to identify task vulnerabilities associated with the performance of emergency tasks.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2015

Various approaches to process active sonar signals are under study, but there are many problems to be considered. The sonar signals are distorted by the underwater environment, and the spatio-temporal and spectral characteristics of active sonar signals change in accordance with the aspect of the target even though they come from the same one. And it has difficulties in collecting actual underwater data. In this paper, we synthesized active target echoes based on ray tracing algorithm using target model having 3-dimensional highlight distribution. Then, Fractional Fourier transform was applied to synthesized target echoes to extract feature vector. Recognition experiment was performed using probabilistic neural network classifier.

• 과학교육연구지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.69-76
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• 2009

이 연구의 목적은 확률 논리와 조합 논리가 형성되지 않은 학생들에게 논리 지도를 위한 최적의 시기를 찾고자 하는 것이다. 초등학교 4, 5, 6학년 학생 430명을 대상으로 논리의 형성정도를 사전에 검사하였다. 검사도구는 GALT를 참고하여 개발하였고, 이는 과학 교육 전문가에게 타당도를 검증 받았다. 처리 프로그램은 두 가지 논리가 모두 형성되지 않은 각 학년 20명의 학생을 대상으로 수행하였다. 이는 바둑돌과 카드를 반복적으로 수행하는 검사도구이다. 4주 뒤 사후검사에서 확률논리와 조합논리의 발달정도를 알아보는 검사를 다시 수행하였고 그 변화는 확인되었다. 확률논리의 경우 4, 5, 6학년에서 형성율이 각각 15%, 25%, 40% 증가하였고, 평균도 .15, .30, .50 증가하였다. T-검증에 의한 의미있는 결과는 6학년 중에서 얻어졌다. 그러나 과도기 학생 비율(21.7%)를 제외하면 형성 학생의 비율은 5.0%로 여전히 저조하였고, 다수의 학생(73.3%)은 미형성 상태를 유지하였다. 조합논리의 경우 4, 5, 6학년에서 형성율이 각각 20%, 25%, 63.2% 증가하였고, 평균도 .20, .25, .63 증가하였다. T-검증에 의한 의미있는 결과는 역시 6학년 중에서 얻어졌다. 그러나 처치 후 논리 형성 학생으로의 전이는 없었으며, 과도기 학생의 비율만 35% 증가하였다. 위의 연구결과, 확률논리와 조합논리가 형성되지 않은 학생들은 학습을 통한 향상은 이루어 졌지만, 인지발달과 같은 질적인 변화는 이루어지지 않았다. 이 연구로 인하여 확률논리와 조합논리의 학습 효과가 큰 6학년 학생들의 인지수준 개선을 위한 여러 분야에서의 더 활발한 연구가 이루어지길 기대한다.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.62-72
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• 2019

지진해일 규모와 발생시기 예측의 어려움으로 인해 결정론적 방법으로 얻은 결과가 실제 재난을 반영하지 못하는 사례가 발생하고 있다. 따라서 지진해일의 불확실성을 확률론적으로 접근하는 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 분석(Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis) 연구의 중요성이 점차 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 과거 동해안에 피해를 유발한 동해 동연부 지진에 대하여 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 분석을 위한 기초연구를 수행하였다. 초기수면변위와 해일고분포의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 로직트리 기법을 사용하였으며, 우리나라에 내습하는 지진해일의 특성을 반영하여 분기를 구성하였다. 프랙타일 곡선을 산출하는 과정에서 분기의 수가 증가하면 시간소요가 비선형적으로 증가하므로 모든 분기를 고려하면서도 계산시간을 줄일 수 있는 개선된 방법을 제안하였다. 새로 제안된 이산가중치분포법(Discrete Weight Distribution)과 정렬기법 및 몬테카를로법으로 얻은 결과의 일관성과 소요시간을 비교하였다. 이산가중치분포법은 정렬기법을 적용한 경우보다 계산시간이 짧아 효율적인 것으로 평가되었으나, 다수의 분기나 세그먼트를 고려할 경우 몬테카를로 방법이 더 효율적인 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.910-917
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• 2016

Sensors have limited resources in sensor networks, so efficient use of energy is important. Representative clustering methods, LEACH, LEACHC, TEEN generally use direct transmission methods from cluster headers to the sink node to pass collected data. However, the communication distance of the sensor nodes at low cost and at low power is not long, it requires a data transfer through the multi-hop to transmit data to the sink node. In the existing cluster-based sensor network studies, cluster process and route selection process are performed separately in order to configure the routing path to the sink node. In this paper, in order to use the energy of the sensor nodes that have limited resources efficiently, a cluster-based multi-hop routing protocol which merges the clustering process and routing process is proposed. And the proposed method complements the problem of uneven cluster creation that may occur in probabilistic cluster methods and increases the energy efficiency of whole sensor nodes.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.97-107
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• 1989

In this study three types of aggregation methods such as the Estimate-Talk-Consensus (ETC) process, the Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE) process, and as a new approach the Estimate-Talk-Leader's Estimate (ETLE) process are compared to find which one of the three group processes considered is more effective than others. We, also, investigate the effect of group size on the performance of the group processes. Some experiments were conducted. It was shown that both the ETC and the ETLE processes performed better than the ETE process in approaching correct estimates in this judgmental task. As the size group increased, only the ETC and the ETC processes were shown to result in positive effect.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.76-88
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• 1991

Stochastic convexity (concavity) of a stochastic process is a very useful concept for various stochastic optimization problems. In this study we first establish stochastic convexity of a certain class of Markov additive processes through probabilistic construction based on the sample path approach. A Markov additive process is abtained by integrating a functional of the underlying Markov process with respect to time, and its stochastic convexity can be utilized to provide efficient methods for optimal design or optimal operation schedule wide range of stochastic systems. We also clarify the conditions for stochastic monotonicity of the Markov process. From the result it is shown that stachstic convexity can be used for the analysis of probabilitic models based on birth and death processes, which have very wide applications area. Finally we demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the theoretical results by developing efficient methods for the optimal replacement scheduling based on the stochastic convexity property.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.559-569
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• 1998

Cellular manufacturing system (CMS) has been recognized as an alternative to improve manufacturing productivity in conventional batch-type manufacturing systems through reducing set-up times, work-in-process inventories and throughput times by means of group technology. Most of the studies on the design of CMS assumed that each part has a unique process plan, and that its demand is known as a deterministic value despite of the probabilistic nature of the real world problems. This study suggests an approach for designing CMS, considering both alternative process plans and uncertain demand. A mathematical model is presented to show how to minimize the expected amortized and operating costs satisfying these two relaxations. Four heuristic algorithms are developed based on tabu search which is well suited for getting an optimal or near-optimal solution. Example problems are carried out to illustrate the heuristic algorithms and each of them is compared with the deterministic counterpart.

• 전자공학회논문지S
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• 제36S권7호
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• pp.50-61
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• 1999

이 논문에서는 클러터 환경에서 항적 유지에 필요한 레이다 에너지를 최소하하기 위한 위상배열 레이디의 표적 검출 및 추적 매개변수 제어방법을 제시한다. 이를 위해 위상배열 레이다의 표적 탐색과정에서 비롯되는 표적 검출과정을 수학적 모델로 전개한다. 수학적 전개과정을 통해 표적 검출과정에서 발생하는 클리터나 측정 잡음에 의한 거짓 정보(false alarm)등과 같은 실제 표적이외의 측정을 고려한다. 추적필터 역시 클리터의 영향을 고려하기 위해 확률적 데이터 연관(Probabilistic Data Association: PDA)필터의 수정된 리카티 방정식의 근사식을 이용한다. 표적 탐색과정과 추적모델을 바탕으로, 최적의 매개변수 계획(scheduling)문제를 비선형 최적제어문제로 수식화하며, 최적제어문제의 해를 얻기 위해 제한조건을 가진 비선형 최적화 문제를 푼다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.740-746
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• 2010

Rainwater has been used in many countries as a way of minimizing water availability problems. Rainwater harvesting system (RHS) has been successfully implemented as alternative water supply sources even in Korea. Although RHS is an effective alternative to water supply, its efficiency is often heavily influenced by temporal distribution of rainfall. Since natural precipitation is a random process and has probabilistic characteristics, it will be more appropriate to describe these probabilistic features of rainfall and its relationship with design storage capacity as well as supply deficit of RHS. This study presents the methodology to establish the relationships between storage capacities and deficit rates using probability distributions. In this study, the real three-story building was considered and nine scenaries were developed because the daily water usage pattern of the study one was not identified. GEV, Gumbel and the generalized logistic distribution ware selected according to the results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi-Squared test. As a result, a set of curves describing the relationships under different exceedance probabilities were generated as references to RHS storage design. In case of the study building, the deficit rate becomes larger as return period increases and will not increase any more if the storage capacity becomes the appropriate quantity. The uncertainties between design storage and the deficit can be more understood through this study on the probabilistic relationships between storage capacities and deficit rates.