• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.99-109
• /
• 2007

Variable message signs (VMS), which are used for providing real-time information on traffic conditions and accident occurrences, are one of the important components of intelligent transportation systems VMS messages need to meet human factor requirements: messages should be readable and understandable while driving. Lab-controlled experiments on VMS messages were conducted to obtain useful data for analyzing drivers' responsive characteristics for VMS messages. Binary logistic regression (BLR) modeling techniques were applied to explore the relationships among drivers' message perceptions, message reading time, and amount of VMS messages. Probabilistic outcomes of the proposed BLR-based perception model could be greatly utilized to design VMS messages considering drivers' legibility performance. The major contribution of this study is to develop invaluable statistical models that can be used in designing VMS messages more effectively from the human factor point of view. The results could be further applied to establish the scheme of VMS message phase and duration.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
• /
• v.37 no.4
• /
• pp.65-71
• /
• 2000

Finite wordlength effect of the recursive implementation of SDFT(sliding-DFT) is analytically derived in this paper. Representation errors of the twiddle coefficients and the data registers are the two major causes of the spectral errors in the recursive implementation. The noise-to-signal ratio is analytically derived in terms of the coefficients wordlength, the data registers wordlength, and the DFT's block-length used in the computation Error dynamic equation is obtained from the recursive DFT and the probabilistic models for the coefficients error and the round-off error are introduced for the NSR derivation, The result of the NSR derivation is verified with the simulation data.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.343-350
• /
• 2014

A probabilistic construction stage analysis using the Monte Carlo Simulation was performed to address the effects of uncertainty regarding the material properties, environmental factors, and applied forces. In the previous research, creep and shrinkage were assumed to be completely independent random variables. However, because of the common influencing factors in the material models for the creep and shrinkage estimation, strong correlation between creep and shrinkage can be presumed. In this paper, an Monte Carlo Simulation using CEB-FIB creep and shrinkage equations were performed to actually evaluate the correlation coefficient between two phenomena, and then another Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the statistical properties of axial strain affected by partially correlated random variables including the material properties, environmental factors, and applied forces. The results of Monte Carlo Simulation were compared with measured strains of a column on a first story in a 58-story building. Comparison indicated that the variation due to the uncertainty related with the material properties were most severe. And measured strains was within the range of mean+standard deviation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.665-683
• /
• 2006

The strength behaviors of Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP) Composites can be greatly influenced by the properties of constitutive materials, the laminate structures, and load conditions etc, accompanied by many uncertainty factors. So the reliability study on FRP is an important subject of research. Many achievements have been made in reliability studies based on the probability theory, but little has been done on the roles played by fuzzy variables. In this paper, a fuzzy reliability model for FRP laminates is established first, in which the loads are considered as random variables and the strengths as fuzzy variables. Then a numerical model is developed to assess the fuzzy reliability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to compute the reliability of laminas under the maximum stress criterion. In the second part of this paper, a generalized fuzzy reliability model (GFRM) is proposed. By virtue of the fact that there may exist a series of states between the failure state and the function state, a fuzzy assumption for the structure state together with the probabilistic assumption for strength parameters is adopted to construct the GFRM of composite materials. By defining a generalized limit state function, the problem is converted to the conventional reliability formula that enables the first-order reliability method (FORM) applicable in calculating the reliability index. Several examples are worked out to show the validity of the models and the efficiency of the methods proposed in this paper. The parameter sensitivity analysis shows that some of the mean values of the strength parameters have great influence on the laminated composites' reliability. The differences resulting from the application of different failure criteria and different fuzzy assumptions are also discussed. It is concluded that the GFRM is feasible to use, and can provide an effective and synthetic method to evaluate the reliability of a system with different types of uncertainty factors.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.485-510
• /
• 2014

In performance-based seismic design procedures Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-Spectral acceleration ($S_a$) are commonly used to predict the response of structures to earthquake. Recently, research has been carried out to evaluate the predictive capability of these standard Intensity Measures (IMs) with respect to different types of structures and Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) commonly used to measure damage. Efforts have been also spent to propose alternative IMs that are able to improve the results of the response predictions. However, most of these IMs are not usually employed in probabilistic seismic demand analyses because of the lack of reliable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). In order to define seismic hazard and thus to calculate demand hazard curves it is essential, in fact, to establish a GMPE for the earthquake intensity. In the light of this need, new GMPEs are proposed here for the elastic input energy spectra, energy-based intensity measures that have been shown to be good predictors of both structural and non-structural damage for many types of structures. The proposed GMPEs are developed using mixed-effects models by empirical regressions on a large number of strong-motions selected from the NGA database. Parametric analyses are carried out to show the effect of some properties variation, such as fault mechanism, type of soil, earthquake magnitude and distance, on the considered IMs. Results of comparisons between the proposed GMPEs and other from the literature are finally shown.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.193-202
• /
• 2018

This paper studied the probability of pounding occurred between decks and abutments of a long span high-pier continuous rigid fame bridge subjected to ground motions with local soil effect. A pounding probability analysis methodology has been proposed using peak acceleration at bedrock as intensity measure (IM) for multi-support seismic analysis. The bridge nonlinear finite element (FE) models was built with four different separation distances. Effect of actual site condition and non-uniform spatial soil profiles on seismic wave propagating from bedrock to ground surface is modelled. Pounding probability of the high-pier bridge under multi-support seismic excitations (MSSE) is analyzed based on the nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (n-IDA). Pounding probability results under uniform excitations (UE) without actual local site effect are compared with that under MSSE with site effect. The study indicates that the required design separation length between deck and abutment under uniform excitations is larger than that under MSSE as the peak acceleration at bedrock increases. As the increase of both separation distance between deck and abutment and the peak acceleration, the probability of pounding occurred at a single abutment or at two abutments simultaneously under MSSE is less than that under UE. It is of great significance considering actual local site effect for determining the separation distance between deck and abutment through the probability pounding analysis of the high-pier bridge under MSSE.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.18 no.5
• /
• pp.567-580
• /
• 2020

In this paper, irregularly designed planar reinforced concrete wall structures are investigated computationally. For this purpose, structures consisting of four regular and irregular models of short-order (two-class) and intermediate (five-class) types have been investigated. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic damage of these structures has been performed by using the incremental inelastic dynamic analysis to produce the seismic fragility curve at different levels of damage. The fragility curves are based on two classes of maximum damage indices and the Jeong-Nansha three-dimensional damage index. It was found that there is a significant increase in damage probability in irregular structures compared to regular ones. The rate of increase was higher in moderate and extensive damage levels. Also, the amount of damage calculated using the two damage indices shows that the Jeong-Nensha three-dimensional damage index in these types of structures provides superior results.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.18 no.8
• /
• pp.32-41
• /
• 1999

In this paper, an inversion method using chirp signals and two near field receivers is proposed. Inversion problems can be formulated into the probabilistic models composed of signals, a forward model and noise. Forward model to simulate chirp signals is chosen to be the source-wavelet-convolution planewave modeling method. The solution of the inversion problem is defined by a posteriori pdf. The wavelet matching technique, using weighted least-squares fitting, estimates the sediment sound-speed and thickness on which determination of the ranges for a priori uniform distribution is based. The genetic algorithm can be applied to a global optimization problem to find a maximum a posteriori solution for determined a priori search space. Here the object function is defined by an L₂norm of the difference between measured and modeled signals. The observed signals can be separated into a set of two signals reflected from the upper and lower boundaries of a sediment. The separation of signals and successive applications of the genetic algorithm optimization process reduce the search space, therefore improving the inversion results. Not only the marginal pdf but also the statistics are calculated by numerical evaluation of integrals using the samples selected during importance sampling process of the genetic algorithm. The examples applied here show that, for synthetic data with noise, it is possible to carry out an inversion for sedimentary layers using the proposed inversion method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.11 no.5
• /
• pp.779-807
• /
• 2016

Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are essential tools in seismic hazard analysis. With the introduction of probabilistic approaches for the estimation of seismic response of structures, also known as, performance based earthquake engineering framework; new tasks are defined for response spectrum such as the reference criterion for effective structure-specific selection of ground motions for nonlinear time history analysis. One of the recent efforts to introduce a high quality databank of ground motions besides the corresponding selection scheme based on the broadband spectral consistency is the development of SIMBAD (Selected Input Motions for displacement-Based Assessment and Design), which is designed to improve the reliability of spectral values at all natural periods by removing noise with modern proposed approaches. In this paper, a new global GMPE is proposed by using selected ground motions from SIMBAD to improve the reliability of computed spectral shape indicators. To determine regression coefficients, 204 pairs of horizontal components from 35 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from Mw 5 to Mw 7.1 and epicentral distances lower than 40 km selected from SIMBAD are used. The proposed equation is compared with similar models both qualitatively and quantitatively. After the verification of model by several goodness-of-fit measures, the epsilon values as the spectral shape indicator are computed and the validity of available prediction equations for correlation of the pairs of epsilon values is examined. General consistency between predictions by new model and others, especially, in short periods is confirmed, while, at longer periods, there are meaningful differences between normalized residuals and correlation coefficients between pairs of them estimated by new model and those are computed by other empirical equations. A simple collapse assessment example indicate possible improvement in the correlation between collapse capacity and spectral shape indicators (${\varepsilon}$) up to 20% by selection of a more applicable GMPE for calculation of ${\varepsilon}$.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.21 no.5
• /
• pp.695-703
• /
• 2018

Based on monitoring data collected from the Nanjing Dashengguan Bridge over the last five years, this paper systematically investigates the effects of temperature field and train loadings on the structural responses of this long-span high-speed railway bridge, and establishes the early warning thresholds for various structural responses. Then, some lessons drawn from the structural health monitoring system of this bridge are summarized. The main context includes: (1) Polynomial regression models are established for monitoring temperature effects on modal frequencies of the main girder and hangers, longitudinal displacements of the bearings, and static strains of the truss members; (2) The correlation between structural vibration accelerations and train speeds is investigated, focusing on the resonance characteristics of the bridge at the specific train speeds; (3) With regard to various static and dynamic responses of the bridge, early warning thresholds are established by using mean control chart analysis and probabilistic analysis; (4) Two lessons are drawn from the experiences in the bridge operation, which involves the lacks of the health monitoring for telescopic devices on the beam-end and bolt fractures in key members of the main truss.