• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.57-68
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• 2009

최근 인적재난 발생의 불확실성에 대한 유연한 대처를 위해 확률 통계적 재난위험성 평가 및 위험관리 기술에 대한 필요성이 고조되고 있어 관련기술을 인적재난에 적용하기 위한 연구를 수행하였다. 먼저 재난위험성 평가 기법의 실효성, 경제성 및 지속가능한 시스템 구현을 위한 선제조건을 검토하였다. 이로부터 재난의 피해규모-발생확률 분포함수의 이론적 검토를 통해 확률 통계적인 재난위험 지표를 도출하고 재난안전(위험)도 평가에 활용함으로서 보다 간편한 정량적 재난위험도 평가기법을 개발하였기에 이를 소개한다. 또한 이를 활용하여 우리나라와 일본의 확률 통계적인 화재 안전유지 성능을 비교 분석하고 그 결과를 안전지수로 제시하였다. 향후 기존의 재난위험 평가기술과 융화 발전시켜 국내실정에 맞는 미래 재난 추정 및 예측 모델의 최적화 방안을 마련함으로써 지속적인 위험도 분석결과에 기반을 둔 합리적인 통합재난관리 방안 마련이 가능 할 것으로 기대된다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권5C호
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• pp.313-322
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• 2006

지반 액상화는 대표적인 지진 피해의 한 형태로 이 연구에서는 이러한 지반 액상화 가능성 평가를 위한 확률적 접근 방법을 제시하였다. 일정한 사용기간 동안의 지진에 의한 액상화 발생확률을 구하기 위하여 액상화 취약도와 지진재해도를 결합하여 액상화 위험도를 산정할 수 있도록 하였다. 현재 국내에서는 결정론적인 방법이 많이 이용되고 있으나, 이러한 방법은 지반 물성치에 포함되어 있는 많은 불확실성을 합리적으로 다루기 어려운 단점이 있다. 두 가지 형태의 확률적 접근 방법을 제시하였는데, 첫번째는 설계지진에 대한 확률적 신뢰도 해석 방법이고, 두번째는 주어진 지반조건에 대하여 일정한 사용기간 동안 액상화가 발생할 수 있는 가능성을 평가한 위험도 해석 방법이다. 기존의 결정론적 방법과 확률적 방법에 의하여 매립지반의 액상화를 평가하였으며, 위험도 해석에 의한 액상화 가능성 평가기법을 지속적으로 적용하고, 설계기준이 제시된다면 보다 합리적이고, 정량적인 지반 액상화 가능성 평가기법이 될 수 있음을 검증하였다.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:시스템및이론
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.243-254
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• 2005

멀티미디어와 같은 연성 실시간 응용들은 서비스 품질을 위해 각 태스크들이 마감시간 전에실행을 마칠 수 있다는 확률적 보장을 요구한다. 시스템 설계자는 태스크들의 확률적 시간 제약 조건을 만족시키는 범위내에서 각 태스크에게 최악 처리기 요구량 보다는 적은 처리기 시간을 할당함으로써 시스템 이용률 향상을 추구할 수 있다. 그러나 각 태스크에게 주어진 처리기 할당량이 최악 요구량보다 적은 경우에는 필연적으로 할당량을 초과하는 요구량을 가진 태스크 작업들, 즉 과실행 작업들이 발생하게 되므로 과실행 작업에 대한 제어 기법이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 연성 실시간 시스템에서의 확률적인 과실행 제어 기법 및 합성 기법을 제안한다. 제안하는 기법은 우선순위 스케줄링의 기반 위에서 각 태스크가 주어진 확률적 시간 제약 조건을 만족할 수 있도록 과실행을 억제함과 동시에, 태스크 실행시간의 가변성으로 인한 여분의 처리기 시간을 일부 과실행 태스크에 유연하게 할당함으로써 시스템 이용률을 향상 시킬수 있다. 본 논문에서는 시스템 모델의 제시와 실험 결과의 분석을 통하여 제안하는 과실행 제어 기법이 마감시간 위반율 측면에서 기존의 기법들보다 우수함을 보이며, 또한 임의의 확률적 시간 제약 조건이 주어질 때 이를 만족시키는 과실행 제어 기법의 매개 변수들을 합성할 수 있음을 보인다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study estimated the load effect of a single heavy truck to develop a live load model for the design and assessment of bridges located on an expressway with a limited truck entry weight. METHODS : The statistical estimation methods for the live load effect acting on a bridge by a heavy vehicle are reviewed, and applications using the actual measurement data for trucks traveling on an expressway are presented. The weight estimation of a single vehicle and its effect on a bridge are fundamental elements in the construction of a live load model. Two statistical estimation methods for the application of extrapolation in a probabilistic study and an additional estimation method that adopts the extreme value theory are reviewed. RESULTS : The proposed methods are applied to the traffic data measured on an expressway. All of the estimation methods yield similar results using the data measured when the weight limit has been relatively well observed because of the rigid enforcement of the weight regulation. On the other hand, when the estimations are made using overweight traffic data, the resulting values differ with the estimation method. CONCLUSIONS : The estimation methods based on the extreme distribution theory and the modified procedure presented in this paper can yield reasonable values for the maximum weight of a single truck, which can be applied in both the design and evaluation of a bridge on an expressway.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2011년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.281-286
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• 2011

Station structures, one of important infrastructures, which have been being operated since the 1970s, are especially vulnerable to even the medium-level earthquake and they could be damaged by long-term internal or external vibrations such as ambient vibrations. Recently, much attention has been paid to real-time monitoring of the fatal defect or long-term deterioration of civil infrastructures to ensure their safety and adequate performance throughout their life span. In this study, a structural health monitoring methodology using acceleration responses is proposed to evaluate the health-state of the station structures and to detect initial damage-stage. A damage index is developed using the acceleration data and it is applied to outlier analysis, one of unsupervised learning based pattern recognition methods. A threshold value for the outlier analysis is determined based on confidence level of the probabilistic distribution of the acceleration data. The probabilistic distribution is selected according to the feature of the collected data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.301-317
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• 2011

Statistical and probabilistic behaviors of fibers forming fiber webs of all kinds are of great significance in the determination of the uniformity and physical properties of the webs commonly found in many industrial products such as filters, membranes and non-woven fabrics. However, in studying the spatial geometry of the webs the observations must be theoretically as well as experimentally confined within a specified unit area. This paper provides a general theory and framework for computer simulation for quantifying the fiber segments bounded by the unit area in consideration of the "edge effects" resulting from the truncated length segments within the boundary. The probability density function and the first and second moments of the length segments found within the counting region were derived by properly defining the seeding region and counting region.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.331-345
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• 2007

Uncertainties enter a complex analysis from a variety of sources: variability, lack of data, human errors, model simplification and lack of understanding of the underlying physics. However, for many important engineering applications insufficient data are available to justify the choice of a particular probability density function (PDF). Sometimes the only data available are in the form of interval estimates which represent, often conflicting, expert opinion. In this paper we demonstrate that Bayesian estimation techniques can successfully be used in applications where only vague interval measurements are available. The proposed approach is intended to fit within a probabilistic framework, which is established and widely accepted. To circumvent the problem of selecting a specific PDF when only little or vague data are available, a hierarchical model of a continuous family of PDF's is used. The classical Bayesian estimation methods are expanded to make use of imprecise interval data. Each of the expert opinions (interval data) are interpreted as random interval samples of a parent PDF. Consequently, a partial conflict between experts is automatically accounted for through the likelihood function.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.125-135
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• 2004

Industrial structure systems may have nonlinearity, and are also sometimes exposed to the danger of random excitation. This paper proposes a method to analyze response and reliability design of a complex nonlinear structure system under random excitation. The nonlinear structure system which is subjected to random process is modeled by finite element method. The nonlinear equations are expanded sequentially using the perturbation theory. Then, the perturbed equations are solved in probabilistic methods. Several statistical properties of random process that are of interest in random vibration applications are reviewed in accordance with the nonlinear stochastic problem.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2012

The objectives of this study is intended to analyze stresses using the boundary element method and probability analysis for agricultural structure. Loads and material properties are an important factor when analyzing the structure. Until now, designing structure, loads and material properties are applied deterministic value. However, load and material properties involve uncertainties due to those change probabilistic and deterministic methods could not consider uncertainties. To solve these problems, the reliability analysis based on probability properties scheme was developed. Reliability analysis is easy to approach to analysis frame structure, however it has limitation when solving plane stress strain problems a kind of agricultural structures. The BEM (Boundary Element Method) is able to analysis plane strain problems by boundary conditions. Thus, this study applied boundary element method to analysis plane strain problem, load and material properties as a probabilistic value to calculate the analytical model using Monte Carlo simulations were developed.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.14-21
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• 2016

One of the major issues in the material-based or acceptance quality characteristics asphalt pavement Quality Assurance (QA) is that the method does not have rationality to link between the individual materials and the projected performance of the pavement. A new asphalt mix QA method has been recently developed under a national research project using the probabilistic Performance Related Specification (PRS). This advanced PRS QA methodology integrates the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design$^{(R)}$ technology with the simple performance test concept that bridges the material characteristics with the pavement performance. This paper presents a case study of asphalt pavement performance using the developed PRS QA computer program, named Quality Related Specification Software (QRSS), with an actual pavement project, to demonstrate the developed PRS procedure and to assess the robustness of QRSS in terms of the rationality of the distress predictions. The results of this limited case study show that the new PRS QA method reasonably predicts the pavement performance, properly applied the probabilistic methods, and produced rational pay adjustment.