• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.253-261
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• 2018

This article details a bridge-specific fragility method developed to enhance the seismic design and resilience of bridges. Current seismic design processes provide guidance for the design of a bridge that will not collapse during a design hazard event. However, they do not provide performance information of the bridge at different hazard levels or due to design changes. Therefore, there is a need for a supplement to this design process that will provide statistical information on the performance of a bridge, beyond traditional emphases on collapse prevention. This article proposes a bridge-specific parameterized fragility method to enable efficient estimation of various levels of damage probability for alternative bridge design parameters. A multi-parameter demand model is developed to incorporate bridge design details directly in the fragility estimation. Monte Carlo simulation and Logistic regression are used to determine the fragility of the bridge or bridge component. The resulting parameterized fragility model offers a basis for a bridge-specific design tool to explore the influence of design parameter variation on the expected performance of a bridge. When used as part of the design process, these tools can help to transform a prescriptive approach into a more performance-based approach, efficiently providing probabilistic performance information about a new bridge design. An example of the method and resulting fragility estimation is presented.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.159-160
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• 2018

The domestic construction industry is changing its preference for demand and supply along with urbanization and economic development. Accordingly, initial risk assessments is more important than before. Currently, the research related to risk analysis except for apartment studies is insufficient. Therefore, the objective is to suggest a basic study on financial analysis model development by applying optimization method in residential officetel. To achieve the objective. first, the previous studies are investigated. Second, the causal loop diagram is structured based on the collected data. Third, the financial model is developed by using optimization method. In the future, the proposed model can be helpful whether or not conduct execution of an officetel development project to the decision makers.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2020

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1-5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.199-209
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• 2008

This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.175-182
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• 2013

A damage-based approach for the performance-based seismic assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures is proposed. A new methodology for structural damage assessment is developed that utilizes response information at the material level in each section fiber. The concept of the damage evolution is analyzed at the section level and the computed damage is calibrated with observed experimental data. The material level damage parameter is combined at the element, story and structural level through the use of weighting factors. The damage model is used to compare the performance of two typical 12-story frames that have been designed for different seismic requirements. A series of nonlinear time history analyses is carried out to extract demand measures which are then expressed as damage indices using the proposed model. A probabilistic approach is finally used to quantify the expected seismic performance of the building.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-31
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• 2009

This paper considers the value of warehousing contract under probabilistic demands. We consider a supply chain consisting of a supplier, a retailer and its third-party warehousing partner who provides the warehousing service to the retailer through an outsourcing contract. A typical contract is specified by initial space commitment and modification schedule. The retailer decides the order quantity for the supplier and space commitment for the outsourcing contract. Since there is close relationship between order quantity and space commitment to minimize the total cost including ordering cost, inventory carrying cost, shortage cost, and warehousing cost, we develop an analytical model under probabilistic demands, where the retailer can determine the optimal order size and space commitment level jointly. We found the closed-form optimum for a single-period case and the optimal conditions for a two-period case. To evaluate the value of contract flexibility for the two-period case, we compared the total cost under two policies; one with modification, under which the base commitment can be changed at the start of each period and the other without modification. From results of our numerical analysis, we showed that the modification policy is more cost-effective as the variability of demand increases.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.137-144
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• 1998

Block stacking, which involves the storage of unit loads in stacks within storage rows, is typically used in traditional warehouses to achieve a high space utilization at a low investment cost. In this paper, assuming that the demand size from a customer is an i.i.d. random variable, we develop a probabilistic block stacking storage model and its algorithm for a singles product, which minimizes the time-overage floor space requirement under an (s, S) inventory policy and the violation of the FIFO lot rotation rule only in a single partially-occupied row.

• The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.29-37
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• 2013

In the environment of emphasizing creativity, computer application instruction model is in demand which is developed for the group discussion, enlarging the range of thinking, and creativity. The purpose of this study is to develop a PBL-based computer application instruction model concerning creativity after researching problems during the use of computer education by group. The theoretical background of class model is PBL, and the efficiency and creativity of class is considered while using web-mind map as the tool for the discussion and data sharing. As a result of applying the suggested model to the students enrolled in the production of presentation instruction, it made probabilistic meaningful outcome where complaint with communication, data sharing, role sharing, difference of contribution, excessive run-time and etc. were reduced.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.63-74
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• 1986

A methodology for the probabilistic determination of active storage capacity of an impounding reservoir is proposed with due considerations to the durations and return periods of the low flow series at the reservoir site. For more reliable probabilistic analysis the best-fit stochastic generation model of Monte Carlo type was first selected for the generation of monthly flow series, the models tested being the Month Carlo Model based on the month-by-month flow series (Monte Carlo-A Type), Monte Carlo Model based on the standardized sequential monthly flow series (Monte Carlo-B Type), and the Thomas-Fiering Model. Monte Carlo-B Model was final1y selected and synthetic monthly flows of 200 years at Hong Cheon dam site were generated. With so generated 200 years' monthly flows partial duration series of low flows were developed for various durations. Each low flow series was further processed by a nonsequential mass analysis for specified draft rates. This mass analysis furnished the storage-draft-recurrence interval relationship which gives the reservoir storage requirement for a specified water demand from the reservoir during a drought of given return period. Illustrations are given on the application of these results in analyzing the water supply capacity of a particlar reservoir, existing or proposed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.97-107
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• 2021

A comprehensive study on seismic performance of wood frame building in hilly regions is presented. Specifically, seismic fragility assessment of a typical wood frame building at various locations of the northeast region of India are demonstrated. A three-dimensional simplified model of the wood frame building is developed with due consideration to nonlinear behaviour of shear walls under lateral loads. In doing so, a trilinear model having improved capability to capture the force-deformation behaviour of shear walls including the strength degradation at higher deformations is proposed. The improved capability of the proposed model to capture the force-deformation behaviour of shear wall is validated by comparing with the existing experimental results. The structural demand values are obtained from nonlinear time history analysis (NLTHA) of the three-dimensional wood frame model considering the effect of uncertainty due to record to record variation of ground motions and structural parameters as well. The ground motion bins necessary for NLTHA are prepared based on the identified hazard level from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the considered locations. The maximum likelihood estimates of the lognormal fragility parameters are obtained from the observed failure cases and the seismic fragilities corresponding to different locations are estimated accordingly. The results of the numerical study show that the wood frame constructions commonly found in the region are likely to suffer minor cracking or damage in the shear walls under the earthquake occurrence corresponding to the estimated seismic hazard level; however, poses negligible risk against complete collapse of such structures.