• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.441-457
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• 2018

Characteristic parameter values of seismic isolators deviate from their nominal design values due to uncertainties and/or errors in their material properties and element dimensions, etc. Deviations may increase over service life due to environmental effects and service conditions. For accurate evaluation of the seismic safety level, all such effects, which would result in deviations in the structural response, need to be taken into account. In this study, the sensitivity of the probability of failure of the structures equipped with nonlinear base isolation systems to the uncertainties in various isolation system characteristic parameters is investigated in terms of various isolation system and superstructure response parameters in the context of a realistic three-dimensional base-isolated building model via Monte Carlo Simulations. The inherent record-to-record variability nature of the earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by carrying out analyses for a large number of ground motion records which are classified as those with and without forward-directivity effects. Two levels of nominal isolation periods each with three different levels of uncertainty are considered. Comparative plots of cumulative distribution functions and related statistical evaluation presented here portray the potential extent of the deviation of the structural response parameters resulting from the uncertainties and the uncertainty levels considered, which is expected to be useful for practicing engineers in evaluating isolator test results for their projects.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.397-402
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• 2003

Generally it is likely that rock mass properties are expressed not by a mean value but by values with variation due to its characteristic uncertainty. This characteristic is one of the most important parts for the design of undergound structures, but yet to be fully examined. Stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is contrary to deterministic finite element method in its concept as the former has been developed in order to take the randomness of structural systems into account. Using SFEM, the response variability of structural system can be obtained and it leads probabilistic stability of structure to be analyzed. In this study, displacement response variability of circular opening with hydrostatic stress field are analyzed in terms of rock mass properties having a certain mean and a standard deviation using the SFEM. The analyzed response variability shows that the necessity of probabilistic stability analysis of underground structures using reliable mean value and standard deviation of deformation modulus.

• Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.81-85
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• 2016

This paper introduces a performance integration method to predict variation characteristic of a performance function of electromagnetic machines or devices due to manufacturing tolerances. A normalized performance function space and a hybrid mean value technique are adapted to effectively predict mean and variance, which can identify probabilistic distribution of the performance function. To verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method, a mathematical problem and a loudspeaker model are tested, and numerical results are compared with those of existing methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and univariate dimension reduction method.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.849-854
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• 2001

GTM(Generative Topographic Mapping) model is a probabilistic version of the SOM(Self Organizing Maps) which was proposed by T. Kohonen. The GTM is modelled by latent or hidden variables of probability distribution of data. It is a unique characteristic not implemented in SOM model, and, therefore, it is possible with GTM to analyze data accurately, thereby overcoming the limits of SOM. In the present investigation we proposed a BGTM(Bayesian GTM) combined with Bayesian learning and GTM model that has a small mis-classification ratio. By combining fast calculation ability and probabilistic distribution of data of GTM with correct reasoning based on Bayesian model, the BGTM model provided improved results, compared with existing models.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.1-6
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• 2010

Ball bearings are one of main components that support the rotational shaft in high speed rotary machinery. So, it is very important to detect the incipient faults and fault growth of bearing since the damage and failure of bearing can cause a critical failures or accidents of machinery system. In the past, many researchers mainly performed to detect the bearing fault using traditional method such as wavelet, statistics, envelope etc in vibration signals. But study on the detection technique for bearing fault growth has a little been performed. In this paper, we verified the possibility for monitoring of fault growth and detection of fault size in bearing outer-race by using the envelope powerspectrum and probabilistic density function from measured vibration signals.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1999.07c
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• pp.1340-1343
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• 1999

This Paper Presents a new analytic load decrement method for the evaluation of avoided generation costs of independent power producers (IPPs), named as probabilistic load decrement method. Unlike conventional load decrement methods, the proposed method exactly consider the random outage characteristic of a generating unit, economic dispatch order, and the resulting loss of load probability. Therefore, we can Provide the exact generation avoided costs of an IPP by applying the developed method. In the case studies, we have shown the correctness and effectiveness of the method, and compared with conventional load decrement methods.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.39-44
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• 2012

Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.1-12
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• 2003

Knowing the characteristic of battle duration is important for commanders and logicians in the analysis of combat realization. Analytic solutions for mean and standard deviation can be found in small sized battles. Stochastic combat simulation model is utilized to study a probabilistic behavior of the combat duration. Output data is fitted to a certain probability distribution and some moments such as skewness and kurtosis are investigated. Fire allocation strategies, reselect options, interfiring time random variables, and kill rates are considered to investigate how they affect the battle termination time.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.3-9
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• 1997

The strength of material is scattered owing to the inhomogenity of microstructure, in spite of the same material. Therefore, in order to design the mechanical structure with the reliability engineering, it is important to grasp the statistic nature of material strength. In this paper, effects of grain sizes for the statistical nature of the fatigue crack growth was discussed. And the statistical of mechanical properties was compared with statistical nature of the fatigue crack growth rate.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1994.02b
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• pp.150-153
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• 1994

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have been frequently used to compare probability models applied to medical problems. Though the curves are a measure of the discriminatory power of a model. they do not reflect the model's accuracy. A supplementary accuracy curve is derived which will be coincident with the ROC curve if the model is reliable. will be above the ROC curve if the model's probabilities are too high or below if they are too low. A clinical example of this new graphical presentation is given.