• Title/Summary/Keyword: prior estimate

Search Result 332, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.157-173
    • /
    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

Association of Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte Antigen-4 Polymorphisms with Malignant Bone Tumors Risk: A Meta-analysis

  • Zhang, Chao;Hou, Wei-Hua;Ding, Xuan-Xi;Wang, Xiong;Zhao, Hui;Han, Xing-Wen;Wang, Wen-Ji
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.17 no.8
    • /
    • pp.3785-3791
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Previous studies have assessed the association between the Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte Antigen-4(CTLA-4) polymorphism with the risk of malignant bone tumor, but the conclusions were inconsistent. We aimed to clarify association of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 polymorphisms with malignant bone tumors risk by performing a meta-analysis. Materials and Methods: The databases including PubMed, EMBase databases and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify the eligible studies prior to January 30 2016. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were used to estimate the strengths of the association between the CTLA-4 polymorphism and the malignant bone tumor risks. The meta-analysis was performed by STATA 12.0. Results: Four individual studies with a total of 1003 cases with malignant bone tumor and 1162 controls were included in our meta-analysis. The results of meta-analysis on those data demonstrated that CTLA-4 +49G>A polymorphism was associated with the risk of Ewing's sarcoma and osteosarcoma strongly (A vs. G: OR=1.36, 95%CI:1.20-1.54, p=0.000; AA+AG vs. GG: OR=1.35, 95%CI:1.14-1.61, p=0.001; AA vs. GG: OR=2.24, 95%CI:1.67-2.99, p=0.000; AA vs. AG+GG: OR=2.00, 95%CI:1.53-2.62, p=0.000), but CTLA-4 -318C/T polymorphism was not associated with the risk of malignant bone tumor (C vs. T: OR=0.76, 95%CI:0.76-1.08, p= 0.262; CC+CT vs. TT: OR=0.70, 95%CI:0.41-1.20, p= 0.198; CC vs. TT: OR=0.69, 95%CI:0.40-1.19, p= 0.183; CC vs. CT+TT: OR=0.92, 95%CI:0.75-1.13, p= 0.419). Subgroup analysis showed that there are significantly positive correlations between CTLA-4 +49G>A polymorphism and increased risks of malignant bone tumors in large size of sample (A vs. G: OR=1.347, 95%CI: 1.172,1.548, p=0.000; AA vs. GG: OR=2.228, 95%CI: 1.608,3.085, p=0.000), Ewing's Sarcoma or Osteosarcoma (A vs. G: OR=1.361, 95%CI: 1.201,1.540, p=0.000; AA vs. GG: OR=2.236, 95%CI: 1.674,2.986, p=0.000), and PCR-RFLP or Sequencing(A vs. G: OR=1.361, 95%CI: 1.201,1.540, p=0.000; AA vs. GG: OR=2.236, 95%CI: 1.674,2.986, p=0.000), but CTLA-4 -318C/T polymorphism was not associated with the risk of malignant bone tumors in diagnosis, genotype method, and sample size (all p>0.05). Conclusions: CTLA-4 +49A/G variant was associated with an increased risk of developing the malignant bone tumors, such as Ewing's sarcoma and osteosarcoma. However, it failed to show the association between CTLA-4 -318C/T polymorphism and the risk of malignant bone tumors. Future large-scale studies remain to be done to confirm our conclusions.

An Empirical Study of Financial Analyst's Forecasting Activities on the Firm's Operating Performances (기업실적에 대한 재무분석가의 예측활동에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kwak, Jae-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.93-124
    • /
    • 2003
  • This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

  • PDF

Value of Information Technology Outsourcing: An Empirical Analysis of Korean Industries (IT 아웃소싱의 가치에 관한 연구: 한국 산업에 대한 실증분석)

  • Han, Kun-Soo;Lee, Kang-Bae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.115-137
    • /
    • 2010
  • Information technology (IT) outsourcing, the use of a third-party vendor to provide IT services, started in the late 1980s and early 1990s in Korea, and has increased rapidly since 2000. Recently, firms have increased their efforts to capture greater value from IT outsourcing. To date, there have been a large number of studies on IT outsourcing. Most prior studies on IT outsourcing have focused on outsourcing practices and decisions, and little attention has been paid to objectively measuring the value of IT outsourcing. In addition, studies that examined the performance of IT outsourcing have mainly relied on anecdotal evidence or practitioners' perceptions. Our study examines the contribution of IT outsourcing to economic growth in Korean industries over the 1990 to 2007 period, using a production function framework and a panel data set for 54 industries constructed from input-output tables, fixed-capital formation tables, and employment tables. Based on the framework and estimation procedures that Han, Kauffman and Nault (2010) used to examine the economic impact of IT outsourcing in U.S. industries, we evaluate the impact of IT outsourcing on output and productivity in Korean industries. Because IT outsourcing started to grow at a significantly more rapid pace in 2000, we compare the impact of IT outsourcing in pre- and post-2000 periods. Our industry-level panel data cover a large proportion of Korean economy-54 out of 58 Korean industries. This allows us greater opportunity to assess the impacts of IT outsourcing on objective performance measures, such as output and productivity. Using IT outsourcing and IT capital as our primary independent variables, we employ an extended Cobb-Douglas production function in which both variables are treated as factor inputs. We also derive and estimate a labor productivity equation to assess the impact of our IT variables on labor productivity. We use data from seven years (1990, 1993, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007) for which both input-output tables and fixed-capital formation tables are available. Combining the input-output tables and fixed-capital formation tables resulted in 54 industries. IT outsourcing is measured as the value of computer-related services purchased by each industry in a given year. All the variables have been converted to 2000 Korean Won using GDP deflators. To calculate labor hours, we use the average work hours for each sector provided by the OECD. To effectively control for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation present in our dataset, we use the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) procedures. Because the AR1 process may be industry-specific (i.e., panel-specific), we consider both common AR1 and panel-specific AR1 (PSAR1) processes in our estimations. We also include year dummies to control for year-specific effects common across industries, and sector dummies (as defined in the GDP deflator) to control for time-invariant sector-specific effects. Based on the full sample of 378 observations, we find that a 1% increase in IT outsourcing is associated with a 0.012~0.014% increase in gross output and a 1% increase in IT capital is associated with a 0.024~0.027% increase in gross output. To compare the contribution of IT outsourcing relative to that of IT capital, we examined gross marginal product (GMP). The average GMP of IT outsourcing was 6.423, which is substantially greater than that of IT capital at 2.093. This indicates that on average if an industry invests KRW 1 millon, it can increase its output by KRW 6.4 million. In terms of the contribution to labor productivity, we find that a 1% increase in IT outsourcing is associated with a 0.009~0.01% increase in labor productivity while a 1% increase in IT capital is associated with a 0.024~0.025% increase in labor productivity. Overall, our results indicate that IT outsourcing has made positive and economically meaningful contributions to output and productivity in Korean industries over the 1990 to 2007 period. The average GMP of IT outsourcing we report about Korean industries is 1.44 times greater than that in U.S. industries reported in Han et al. (2010). Further, we find that the contribution of IT outsourcing has been significantly greater in the 2000~2007 period during which the growth of IT outsourcing accelerated. Our study provides implication for policymakers and managers. First, our results suggest that Korean industries can capture further benefits by increasing investments in IT outsourcing. Second, our analyses and results provide a basis for managers to assess the impact of investments in IT outsourcing and IT capital in an objective and quantitative manner. Building on our study, future research should examine the impact of IT outsourcing at a more detailed industry level and the firm level.

The Effects of a MR Torso Coil on CT Attenuation Correction for PET (PET/CT 검사에 있어서 MR Torso Coil의 CT 감쇄보정에 대한 영향 평가)

  • Lee, Seung Jae;Bahn, Young Kag;Oh, Shin Hyun;Gang, Cheon-Gu;Lim, Han Sang;Kim, Jae Sam;Lee, Chang Ho;Seo, Soo-Hyun;Park, Yong Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.81-86
    • /
    • 2012
  • Purpose : Combined MR/PET scanners that use the MRI for PET AC face the challenge of absent surface coils in MR images and thus cannot directly account for attenuation in the coils. To make up for the weak point of MR attenuation correction, Three Modality System (PET/CT +MR) were used in Severance hospital. The goal of this work was to investigate the effects of MR Torso Coil on CT attenuation correction for PET. Materials and Methods : PET artifacts were evaluated when the MR Torso Coil was present of CTAC data with changing various kV and mA in uniformity water phantom and 1994 NEMA cylinderical phantom. They evaluated and compared the following two scenarios: (1) The uniform cylinder phantom and the MR Torso Coil scanned and reconstructed using CT-AC; (2) 1994 NEMA cylinderical phantom and the MR Torso Coil scanned and reconstructed using CT-AC. Results : Streak artifacts were present in CT images containing the MR Torso Coil due to metal components. These artifacts persisted after the CT images were converted for PET-AC. CT scans tended to over-estimate the linear attenuation coefficient when the kV and mA is increasing of the metal components when using conventional methods for converting from CT number. Conclusion : The presence of MR coils during PET/CT scanning can cause subtle artifacts and potentially important quantification errors. Alternative CT techniques that mitigate artifacts should be used to improve AC accuracy. When possible, removing segments of an MR coil prior to the PET/CT exam is recommended. Further, MR coils could be redesigned to reduce artifacts by rearranging placement of the most attenuating materials.

  • PDF

Serotypes and Antimicrobial Susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae (폐구균의 혈청형 분포와 항생제 감수성에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kyoung-Min;Kim, Jeong-Hyun;Shin, Kyoung-Mi;Yeon, Soo-In;Shin, Jeon-Soo;Yong, Dong-Eun;Lee, Kyoung-Won;Kim, Dong-Soo
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.159-166
    • /
    • 2003
  • Purpose : Streptococcus pneumoniae is part of the normal flora but is also responsible for causing many invasive diseases such as pneumonia, meningitis, and sepsis in addition to noninvasive diseases such as otitis in children. Multi-drug resistant strains has raised a lot of concern worldwide and thus the importance of prevention has been emphasized. We have analyzed the current serotypes and antibiotic sensitivity of each serotype as a baseline study to estimate the efficacy of the pneumococcal vaccine in Korean children. Methods : One hundred sixteen cases of pneumococcus cultured at Yonsei Medical Center from September 2001 to January 2003 were analyzed. The serotyping was done with the Quellung reaction and penicillin resistance was tested using the oxacillin disc diffusion method. Results : Pneumococcus were cultured from the sputum in 76 cases(65.5%), from the blood in 13 cases(11.2%), from the ear discharge in 12 cases(10.3%), from the throat in 7 cases(6.0%), from the nasal cavity in 2 cases(1.7%), and one case(0.9%) each from the cerebrospinal fluid, eye discharge, peritoneal fluid, post-operational wound, brain abscess, and catheter tip. Serotyping was possible with 98 cases and the following serotypes were found; 15 cases of type 19F(15.3%), 11 cases of 19A(11.2%), 8 cases of 11A(8.2%), 7 cases each of 6A, 14 and 3(7.1%), 6 cases each of 35, 6B and 23F(6.1%). Eighty two cases(70.7%) out of 116 cases were penicillin resistant and serotypes 19F, 19A, 11A, 23F, 6A, 9V constituted the majority, 48 cases(59.8%). These serotypes showed resistance to cotrimoxazole (74.4%), tetracycline(69.5%), and erythromycin(90.3%) as well. In the 22 cases cultured from children, 19A and 19F were found in 25.0%, 6A, 6B, and 23F in 10.0%, 11A, 14, 19, and 29 in 5.0%. Fifty percent(10/20) of the clinical isolates were represented in the current 7-valent pneumococcal protein conjugate vaccine, and 85%(17/20) when the cross-reacting serotypes were included. Penicillin resistance was found in 86.4%(19/22). Conclusion : The percentage of serotypes included in the 7 valent pneumococcal protein conjugate vaccine found in our study was 40.8% which was less than other prior studies. In anticipation of a change of pneumococcal serotypes, a nationwide multicenter study is needed before the initiation of pneumococcal vaccines in Korea.

  • PDF

Site Selection Model for Wetland Restoration and Creation for the Circulation of Water in a Newly-built Community (신도시 물순환체계 구축을 위한 습지조성 입지선정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Hee-Sun;Kim, Kwi-Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.36 no.6
    • /
    • pp.43-54
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study attempted to develop a model for selecting sites for ecologically effective, multi-functional wetlands during the environmental and ecological planning stage, prior to land use Planning. This model was developed with an emphasis upon the creation of a water circulation system for a newly-created city, dispersing and retaining the run-off that is increased due to urbanization and securing spaces to create wetlands that can promote urban biodiversity. A series of Precesses for selecting sites for wetland restoration and creation - watershed analysis, selection of evaluation items, calculation of weights, reparation of thematic maps and synthesis - were incorporated into the model. Its potentials and limitations were examined by applying it to the recently-planned WiRae New Community Development Area, which is located in the Seoul metropolitan region. At the watershed analysis stage, the site was divided into 13 sub-catchment areas. Inflow to watersheds including the area was $3,020,765m^3$ Run-off before and after development is estimated as $1,901,969m^3$ and $1,970,735{\sim}2,039,502m^3$, respectively. The total storage capacity required in the development area amounts to $68,766{\sim}137,533m^3$. When thematic maps were overlapped during the selection stage for wetland sites, 13 sub-catchment areas were prioritized for wetland restoration and creation. The locations and areas for retaining run-off showed that various types of wetlands, including retaining wetlands (area wetlands), riverine wetlands (linear wetlands) and pond wetlands (point wetlands), can be created and that they can be systematically connected. By providing a basic framework for the water circulation system plan of an entire city, it may be used effectively in the space planning stage, such as planning an urban eco-network through integration with greet areas. In order to estimate reasonable run-off and create an adequate water circulation system however, a feedback process following land use planning is required. This study strived to promote urban changes in a positive direction while minimizing urban changes in negative forms.

Change of Carbon Fixation and Economic Assessment according to the Implementation of the Sunset Provision (도시공원 일몰제에 의한 탄소고정량과 경제성 분석에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Sangdon
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.126-133
    • /
    • 2020
  • In accordance with the implementation of the sunset provision to cancel the designations of urban park sites that remained unexecuted for a prolonged period until 2020, the park sites in the city center, which account for 90% of the long-term unexecuted urban facilities subjected to the provision, are currently on the verge of development. The total area of the 204 park sites that will disappear in Seoul as a result of this provision is 95 ㎢; moreover, 116 of these are privately-owned. It is expected that the possible changes in the use of these park sites could result in reckless development and reduction of green space, which would ultimately affect the ecosystem. This study applied the InVEST model to calculate the changes in the fixed carbon amount before and after the implementation of the sunset provision to estimate the economic value of these changes. The study focused on Jongno-gu in Seoul because it has the most unexecuted park sites subjected to the lifting of the designation. The research findings show that the fixed carbon amount provided by the unexecuted park sites in Jongno-gu was 374,448 mg, prior to the implementation of the sunset provision; however, the amount was estimated to decrease by 18% to 305,564 mg after its execution. When calculated in terms of average value of the real carbon price, this translated into a loss of approximately 700 million won. In addition, considering the social costs including both climate change and the impact on the ecosystem, an economic loss of approximately 98 billion won was projected. This study is meaningful because its predictions are based on the estimation of fixed carbon amount according to the implementation of the sunset provision in Jongno-gu and scientifically calculates the value of ecological services provided by the parks in the city. This study can serve not only as a basis during the decision-making process for policies related to ecosystem conservation and development, but also as an evidentiary material for the compensation of privately-owned land that is designated as urban park sites and was unexecuted for a prolonged period.

The Contact Metamorphism Due to the Intrusion of the Ogcheon and Boeun granites (옥천화강암과 보은화강암 관입에 의한 접촉변성작용)

  • 오창환;김창숙;박영도
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.133-149
    • /
    • 1997
  • In the metapelites around the Ogcheon granite, the metamorphic grade increases from the biotite zone through the andalusite zone to the sillimanite zone towards the intrusion contact. In the metabasites around the Boeun granite, the metamorphic grade increases from transitional zone between the greenchist and amphibolite facies through the amphibolite facies to the upper amphibolite facies towards the intrusion contact. In the Doiri area locating near the intrusion contact of the Boeun granite, sillimanite- and andalusite-bearing metapelites are found with in 500 m away from the contact. The evidence described above indicates that the Ogcheon and Boeun granites caused low-P/T type contact metamorphism to the country rocks. The P-T condition of contact metamorphism due to the intrusion of the Ogcheon granite is $540{\pm}40^{circ}C, 2.8{\pm}0.9$ kb. The temperature condition of contact metamorphism due to the intrusion of the Boeun granite is $698{\pm}28^{\circ}C$. The wide compositional range of amphibole and plagioclase in the metabasites around the Boeun granite is due to the immisibility gab of amphibole and plagioclase and unstable relict composition resulted from an incomplete metamorphic reaction. The compositional range of stable amphibole and plagioclase decreases as a metamorphic grade increases due to a close of immiscibility gab. The thermal effect of contact metamorphism due to the intrusion of the Ogcheon and Boeun granites, are calculated using the CONTACT2 program based on a two dimensional finite difference method. In order to estimate the thermal effect of an introduced pluton, a circle with 10 km diameter and a triangle with 20 km side are used for the intrusion geometries of the Ogcheon granite and the Boeun granite, respectively. The results from the field and modeling studies suggest that the intrusion temperatures of the Ogcheon granite close to $800^{\circ}C$ and the intrusion temperature of the Boeun granite is higher than $1000^{\circ}C$. However, the intrusion temperatures can be lower than the suggested temperature, if the geothermal gradient prior to the intrusion of the Ogcheon and Boeun granites was higher than the normal continental grothermal gradient.

  • PDF

Techniques for Acquisition of Moving Object Location in LBS (위치기반 서비스(LBS)를 위한 이동체 위치획득 기법)

  • Min, Gyeong-Uk;Jo, Dae-Su
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
    • /
    • v.10D no.6
    • /
    • pp.885-896
    • /
    • 2003
  • The typws of service using location Information are being various and extending their domain as wireless internet tochnology is developing and its application par is widespread, so it is prospected that LBS(Location-Based Services) will be killer application in wireless internet services. This location information is basic and high value-added information, and this information services make prior GIS(Geographic Information System) to be useful to anybody. The acquisition of this location information from moving object is very important part in LBS. Also the interfacing of acquisition of moving object between MODB and telecommunication network is being very important function in LBS. After this, when LBS are familiar to everybody, we can predict that LBS system load is so heavy for the acquisition of so many subscribers and vehicles. That is to say, LBS platform performance is fallen off because of overhead increment of acquiring moving object between MODB and wireless telecommunication network. So, to make stable of LBS platform, in this MODB system, acquisition of moving object location par as reducing the number of acquisition of unneccessary moving object location. We study problems in acquiring a huge number of moving objects location and design some acquisition model using past moving patternof each object to reduce telecommunication overhead. And after implementation these models, we estimate performance of each model.