• Title/Summary/Keyword: price index

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Probabilistic Analysis using Economical Evaluation for Shale Gas Development (셰일가스 개발 시 확률론적 분석 기법을 이용한 경제성 평가)

  • Moon, Young-Jun;Moon, Seo-Yoon;Gil, Seong-Min;Shin, Hyo-Jin;Lim, Jong-Se
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, payability of shale gas production has worsened due to oil and gas price declines resulting from sharply increasing shale gas production. Reliable economic evaluation in shale gas development has become important. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation of probabilistic analysis technique was applied to analyze the economic feasibility considering the uncertainty involved in shale gas development. For this, the range of major variables is set and a random number is generated to derive the probability distribution of Net Present Value(NPV) and Internal Rate of Return(IRR). Consequently, we estimated the probability that the feasibility of the project is evaluated to be positive when developing shale gas in the study area. In addition, sensitivity analysis of major parameters affecting economic efficiency in shale gas development was carried out, and the effect of major variables in economic evaluation for commercial production was identified. In the future, this study could be used to make decision for shale gas production by presenting the range of variation of economic index and probability value.

A Study on the Effect of Delinquency Rate of Real Estate PF on Macroeconomic Variables (거시경제변수에 따른 부동산PF 연체율에 관한 연구)

  • Roh, Chi-Young;Kim, Hyung-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.416-427
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    • 2018
  • As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.

A Study on the Relevance between Voluntary Information Disclosure and Effective Tax Rate (자발적 정보 공시와 유효법인세율 간의 관련성 연구)

  • Kin, Jin-Sep
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2017
  • This study examines the relationship between voluntary information disclosure and the effective tax rate using Investor Relation (IR) as the proxy for the level of the firm's voluntary information disclosure, and effective corporate tax rate as the proxy for the level of tax avoidance. This study considers sample data from 1,396 firms listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) from 2011-2014. The results of this study are as follows: Investor Relation (IR) had a positive correlation with effective corporate tax rate. This result got on with the result of additional analysis using extra measurement of effective corporate tax rate. According to these results, we expect that firms featuring greater voluntary information disclosure report enhanced business performance. This study contributes understanding how Investor Relation (IR) affects tax avoidance. We hope that this study can promote the development of capital markets and provide good news to investors for firms that have greater information disclosure.

Definition of Environmental Cost and Eco-VE Model for Eco-VE of Construction Facility (건설시설물 친환경 VE를 위한 환경비용 및 친환경가치모델 정립)

  • Kim, Myung-Jin;Kim, Joon-Soo;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.903-913
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    • 2016
  • Paris Agreement of Climate Change seem affect to Korea eco-policy. Meanwhile the eco-design for reduce carbon emission have been applied in design phase of construction. However eco-design have applied passively except the project of eco-building system. For reflect eco-component in design, design VE that be appling to basic design and executing design phase of all construction project of over 10 billion should be use. But present applying VE Job Plan is reflecting partly eco-component, so the effect is small. Therefor new eco-VE development that reflect eco-elements to exist VE need. As the result of this study, the concept of environmental cost is defined to accounting. The calculation of the cost was using methods that apply $CO_2$ emission trading price, WTP, carbon productivity concept and carbon tax based on $CO_2$ emission. However, in order to apply eco-friendly VE at design phase, the model of new concept included carbon productivity concept is necessary. The eco-friendly VE model of new concept is model using $CO_2$ emission and potential environmental pollution index (PEPI). This study tried define eco-value model and environmental cost definition that become the major axle of eco-VE.

Analysis of City Size Distribution and Spatial Structure - with Korean Metroplitan Statistical Areas (MSA) (한국 도시의 규모분포와 도시공간구조 분석 - 광역도시통계권을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dong-Soo;Huh, Mun-Gu;Lee, Doo-Hee
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.549-563
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this research is to identify the urban structure in Korea. Though there is research regarding urbanization, there is little regarding the urban structure of the Korean economy. In this paper, two issues will be discussed: the measurements of inter-city and intra-city structure in Korean Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), which is newly defined. First, the city size rank rule, widely known as Zipf’s Law, will illustrate Korean the inter-city structure. The city size rank rule gives an idea whether Korean MSAs are balanced or not. In general, Korea has a heavy concentration in the Seoul MSA in terms of population. It could be either that the Seoul MSA is too big or that the Busan MSA is too small or both. If this is the primacy problem, a decentralization policy is necessary. On the other hand, if it is a second city problem, development policies for the Busan MSA and Daegu MSA are more important. Next, the Korean intra-city structure will be discussed. The evolutions of the MSAs explain intra-city structure by analyzing population density function and the housing price function. Some large MSAs such as Seoul and Busan have experienced urban sprawl, while other MSAs have experienced urban concentration. The population density gradient by the distance from the ARC GIS shows the growth rate of a city. According to the Spatial Mismatch Index between population and employment, the Ulsan MSA, Gwangju MSA, and Suwon-Hwaseong-Osan MSA are more mismatched, while the Daejeon MSA and Incheon MSA are less mismatched. Therefore, these analyses of Korean urban structure are meaningful in developing regional policy.

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A Study of New Technical Standards for Slope Stability in Port Structures (항만구조물의 사면안정 신 설계기준 연구)

  • Yoon, Gil-Lim;Yoon, Yeo-Won;Kim, Hong-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.316-325
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    • 2009
  • Technical design codes of slope stability for port structures were studied by comparing local Korean code with international codes; Japanese, EC and China codes. Three international design codes are based on limit state design method. Although Chinese code was based on the modified Fellenius method in slope stability analyses, it is currently changing to the simplified Bishop method. In Eurocode, the Morgenstern & Price method or the Bishop method is recommended. In Japanese code, however, the modified Fellenius method is preferentially recommended, but the simplified Bishop method could be alternatively used in case of thick sandy ground conditions. As for design parameter determination, Eurocode has stipulated comprehensive partial factors and partial material factors, however Japanese code has clarified empirical partial material factors for each port structure. Chinese code, the minimum ranges of the comprehensive partial factors are stipulated, and the use of the strength index by specific tests is concretely clarified with the safety condition. Case study of slope stability analyses showed the safety factors were higher in order of Chinese, Japanese and Eurocode, respectively.

Effect of Plant Populations on the Number and Weight of Ear and Gross Income in Sweet Corn (재식밀도가 단옥수수의 이삭수, 이삭무게 및 조수입에 미치는 영향)

  • 이석순;백준호
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.117-121
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    • 1990
  • A sweet corn hybrid, Golden Cross Bantam 70, was grown at 5 plant populations (5,000, 6,000, 7,000, 8,000, and 9,000 plants/10a) under the transparent P .E. film mulch to find the best yield evaluation method. Plant population did not affect early plant growth, culm length, ear height, and silking date. However, number of tillers at harvest decreased but leaf area index increased with increased plant population. Marketable ears were divided into two classes; the first grade of which husked ear weight over l50g (unhusked ear weight 230g) and the second grade of which husked ear weight between 100 and 150g (unhusked ear weight between 180 and 230g) according to the whole sale market price. Average length, thickness, and weight of marketable ears over 100g of husked ears decreased with increased plant population. The proportion of ears over 150g decreased with increased plant population. However, total number and weight of marketable ears and gross income per 10a calculated considering weight and number of ears increased with plant population. There were highly positive correlations between gross income and ear number or ear weight per unit area. At high plant populations the number of marketable ears was overestimated but ear weight underestimated compared with gross income. Dry matter yield of stover increased with increased plant population and ranged 755-944kg/10a with 20.7-24.5% dry matter content. Rice black-streaked dwarf virus infection rate was 10.6-14.9%, but it was not related to plant population.

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Stress status classification based on EEG signals (뇌파 신호 기반 스트레스 상태 분류)

  • Kang, Jun-Su;Jang, Giljin;Lee, Minho
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 2016
  • In daily life, humans get stress very often. Stress is one of the important factors of healthy life and closely related to the quality of life. Too much stress is known to cause hormone imbalance of our body, and it is observed by the brain and bio signals. Based on this, the relationship between brain signal and stress is explored, and brain signal based stress index is proposed in our work. In this study, an EEG measurement device with 32 channels is adopted. However, only two channels (FP1, FP2) are used to this study considering the applicability of the proposed method in real enveironment, and to compare it with the commercial 2 channel EEG device. Frequency domain features are power of each frequency bands, subtraction, addition, or division by each frequency bands. Features in time domain are hurst exponent, correlation dimension, lyapunov exponent, etc. Total 6 subjects are participated in this experiment with English sentence reading task given. Among several candidate features, ${\frac{{\theta}\;power}{mid\;{\beta}\;power}}$ shows the best test performance (70.8%). For future work, we will confirm the results is consistent in low price EEG device.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Drought Risk (기후변화가 가뭄 위험성에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • A chronic drought stress has been imposed during non-rainy season(from winter to spring) since 1990s. We faced the most significant water crisis in 2001, and the drought was characterized by sultry weather and severe drought on a national scale. It has been widely acknowledged that the drought related damage is 2-3 times serious than floods. In the list of the world's largest natural disaster compiled by NOAA, 4 of the top 5 disasters are droughts. And according to the analysis from the NDMC report, the drought has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. There was a very serious impact on the economic such as rising consumer price during the 2001 spring drought in Korea. There has been flood prevention measures implemented at national-level but for mitigation of droughts, there are only plans aimed at emergency (short-term) restoration rather than the comprehensive preventive measures. In addition, there is a lack of a clear set of indicators to express drought situation objectively, and therefore it is important and urgent to begin a systematic study. In this study, a nonstationary downscaling model using RCM based climate change scenario was first applied to simulate precipitation, and the simulated precipitation data was used to derive Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI under climate change was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of drought through principal component analysis at three different time scales which are 2015, 2045 and 2075. It was found that spatio-temporal variability is likely to modulate with climate change.

Volatility, Risk Premium and Korea Discount (변동성, 위험프리미엄과 코리아 디스카운트)

  • Chang, Kook-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.165-187
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    • 2005
  • This paper tries to investigate the relationships among stock return volatility, time-varying risk premium and Korea Discount. Using Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) return from January 4, 1980 to August 31, 2005, this study finds possible links between time-varying risk premium and Korea Discount. First of all, this study classifies Korean stock returns during the sample period by three regime-switching volatility period that is to say, low-volatile period medium-volatile period and highly-volatile period by estimating Markov-Switching ARCH model. During the highly volatile period of Korean stock return (09/01/1997-05/31/2001), the estimated time-varying unit risk premium from the jump-diffusion GARCH model was 0.3625, where as during the low volatile period (01/04/1980-l1/30/1985), the time-varying unit risk premium was estimated 0.0284 from the jump diffusion GARCH model, which was about thirteen times less than that. This study seems to find the evidence that highly volatile Korean stock market may induce large time-varying risk premium from the investors and this may lead to Korea discount.

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