• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictor models

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Using Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting Algae Counts in a Surface Water System

  • Coppola, Emery A. Jr.;Jacinto, Adorable B.;Atherholt, Tom;Poulton, Mary;Pasquarello, Linda;Szidarvoszky, Ferenc;Lohbauer, Scott
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2013
  • Algal blooms in potable water supplies are becoming an increasingly prevalent and serious water quality problem around the world. In addition to precipitating taste and odor problems, blooms damage the environment, and some classes like cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) release toxins that can threaten human health, even causing death. There is a recognized need in the water industry for models that can accurately forecast in real-time algal bloom events for planning and mitigation purposes. In this study, using data for an interconnected system of rivers and reservoirs operated by a New Jersey water utility, various ANN models, including both discrete prediction and classification models, were developed and tested for forecasting counts of three different algal classes for one-week and two-weeks ahead periods. Predictor model inputs included physical, meteorological, chemical, and biological variables, and two different temporal schemes for processing inputs relative to the prediction event were used. Despite relatively limited historical data, the discrete prediction ANN models generally performed well during validation, achieving relatively high correlation coefficients, and often predicting the formation and dissipation of high algae count periods. The ANN classification models also performed well, with average classification percentages averaging 94 percent accuracy. Despite relatively limited data events, this study demonstrates that with adequate data collection, both in terms of the number of historical events and availability of important predictor variables, ANNs can provide accurate real-time forecasts of algal population counts, as well as foster increased understanding of important cause and effect relationships, which can be used to both improve monitoring programs and forecasting efforts.

Ensemble Method for Predicting Particulate Matter and Odor Intensity (미세먼지, 악취 농도 예측을 위한 앙상블 방법)

  • Lee, Jong-Yeong;Choi, Myoung Jin;Joo, Yeongin;Yang, Jaekyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.203-210
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    • 2019
  • Recently, a number of researchers have produced research and reports in order to forecast more exactly air quality such as particulate matter and odor. However, such research mainly focuses on the atmospheric diffusion models that have been used for the air quality prediction in environmental engineering area. Even though it has various merits, it has some limitation in that it uses very limited spatial attributes such as geographical attributes. Thus, we propose the new approach to forecast an air quality using a deep learning based ensemble model combining temporal and spatial predictor. The temporal predictor employs the RNN LSTM and the spatial predictor is based on the geographically weighted regression model. The ensemble model also uses the RNN LSTM that combines two models with stacking structure. The ensemble model is capable of inferring the air quality of the areas without air quality monitoring station, and even forecasting future air quality. We installed the IoT sensors measuring PM2.5, PM10, H2S, NH3, VOC at the 8 stations in Jeonju in order to gather air quality data. The numerical results showed that our new model has very exact prediction capability with comparison to the real measured data. It implies that the spatial attributes should be considered to more exact air quality prediction.

Analysis of Body Circumference Measures in Predicting Percentage of Body Fat (인체둘레치수를 활용한 체지방율 예측 다중회귀모델 개발)

  • Park, Sung Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2015
  • As a measure of health, the percentage of body fat has been utilized for many ergonomist, physician, athletic trainers, and work physiologists. Underwater weighing procedure for measuring the percentage of body fat is popular and accurate. However, it is relatively expensive, difficult to perform and requires large space. Anthropometric techniques can be utilized to predict the percentage of body fat in the field setting because they are easy to implement and require little space. In this concern, the purpose of this study was to find a regression model to easily predict the percentage of body fat using the anthropometric circumference measurements as predictor variables. In this study, the data for 10 anthropometric circumference measurements for 252 men were analyzed. A full model with ten predictor variables was constructed based on subjective knowledge and literature. The linear regression modeling consists of variable selection and various assumptions regarding the anticipated model. All possible regression models and the assumptions are evaluated using various statistical methods. Based on the evaluation, a reduced model was selected with five predictor variables to predict the percentage of body fat. The model is : % Body Fat = 2.704-0.601 (Neck Circumference) + 0.974 (Abdominal Circumference) -0.332 (Hip Circumference) + 0.409 (Arm Circumference) - 1.618 (Wrist Circumference) + $\epsilon$. This model can be used to estimate the percentage of body fat using only a tape measure.

A Study on the State Space Identification Model of the Dynamic System using Neural Networks (신경회로망을 이용한 동적 시스템의 상태 공간 인식 모델에 관한 연구)

  • 이재현;강성인;이상배
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.115-120
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    • 1997
  • System identification is the task of inferring a mathematical description of a dynamic system from a series of measurements of the system. There are several motives for establishing mathematical descriptions of dynamic systems. Typical applications encompass simulation, prediction, fault diagnostics, and control system design. The paper demonstrates that neural networks can be used effective for the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems. The content of this paper concerns dynamic neural network models, where not all inputs to and outputs from the networks are measurable. Only one model type is treated, the well-known Innovation State Space model(Kalman Predictor). The identification is based only on input/output measurements, so in fact a non-linear Extended Kalman Filter problem is solved. Even for linear models this is a non-linear problem without any assurance of convergence, and in spite of this fact an attempt is made to apply the principles from linear models, an extend them to non-linear models. Computer simulation results reveal that the identification scheme suggested are practically feasible.

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Scoring models to detect foreign exchange money laundering (외국환 거래의 자금세탁 혐의도 점수모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seong-Ik;Moon, Tae-Hee;Sohn, So-Young
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2005
  • In recent years, the money Laundering crimes are increasing by means of foreign exchange transactions. Our study proposes four scoring models to provide early warning of the laundering in foreign exchange transactions for both inward and outward remittances: logistic regression model, decision tree, neural network, and ensemble model which combines the three models. In terms of accuracy of test data, decision tree model is selected for the inward remittance and an ensemble model for the outward remittance. From our study results, the accumulated number of transaction turns out to be the most important predictor variable. The proposed scoring models deal with the transaction level and is expected to help the bank teller to detect the laundering related transactions in the early stage.

Marital Satisfaction and Marital Stability : A Comparison of Two Theoretical Models (결혼만족도와 결혼안정성 : 두 이론의 비교)

  • 윤경자
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.31-46
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    • 1997
  • The controversy between Lewis and Spanier's theory and Thomas and kleber's theory on marital satisfaction and marital stability was tested empirically. The results show that while marital satisfaction was the best predictor for marital stability the impact of alternative attractions and external pressures to remaim married was more complicated than both theories predicted depending on the nature of alternative attractions. Thomas and Kleber's theory was supported in most of groups Contrary to Lewis and Spanier's theory alternative atteractions did not negatively affect marital stability of marriages of high qulity. Contrary to both theories external pressures to remain married was not an important predictor of marital stability . In some cases high external pressures to remain married even lowered marital stability. The validity of both theories are discussed.

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Spontaneous Speech Language Modeling using N-gram based Similarity (N-gram 기반의 유사도를 이용한 대화체 연속 음성 언어 모델링)

  • Park Young-Hee;Chung Minhwa
    • MALSORI
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    • no.46
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents our language model adaptation for Korean spontaneous speech recognition. Korean spontaneous speech is observed various characteristics of content and style such as filled pauses, word omission, and contraction as compared with the written text corpus. Our approaches focus on improving the estimation of domain-dependent n-gram models by relevance weighting out-of-domain text data, where style is represented by n-gram based tf/sup */idf similarity. In addition to relevance weighting, we use disfluencies as Predictor to the neighboring words. The best result reduces 9.7% word error rate relatively and shows that n-gram based relevance weighting reflects style difference greatly and disfluencies are good predictor also.

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Language Model Adaptation for Conversational Speech Recognition (대화체 연속음성 인식을 위한 언어모델 적응)

  • Park Young-Hee;Chung Minhwa
    • Proceedings of the KSPS conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.83-86
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents our style-based language model adaptation for Korean conversational speech recognition. Korean conversational speech is observed various characteristics of content and style such as filled pauses, word omission, and contraction as compared with the written text corpora. For style-based language model adaptation, we report two approaches. Our approaches focus on improving the estimation of domain-dependent n-gram models by relevance weighting out-of-domain text data, where style is represented by n-gram based tf*idf similarity. In addition to relevance weighting, we use disfluencies as predictor to the neighboring words. The best result reduces 6.5% word error rate absolutely and shows that n-gram based relevance weighting reflects style difference greatly and disfluencies are good predictor.

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Determinants of User Satisfaction with Mobile VR Headsets: The Human Factors Approach by the User Reviews Analysis and Product Lab Testing

  • Choi, Jinhae;Lee, Katie Kahyun;Choi, Junho
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2019
  • Since the VR market is expected to have a high growth, this study aimed to investigate the human factor-related determinants of user satisfaction with mobile VR headsets. A pre-study of customer reviews was conducted with the help of semantic network analysis to identify the core keywords for understanding negative and positive predictors of mobile VR headset experiences. Through laboratory testing with three different commercial models, the main study measured and identified the predictors of user satisfaction. From the results, five factors were extracted as valid predictor variables and used for regression analysis. These factors were immersion, VR sickness, usability, wear-ability and menu navigation interface. All the five predictors were proved to be significant determinants of the perceived user satisfaction with mobile VR headsets. Usability was the strongest predictor, followed by VR sickness and wear-ability. Practical and theoretical implications of the results were discussed.

Allometric equation for estimating aboveground biomass of Acacia-Commiphora forest, southern Ethiopia

  • Wondimagegn Amanuel;Chala Tadesse;Moges Molla;Desalegn Getinet;Zenebe Mekonnen
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.196-206
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    • 2024
  • Background: Most of the biomass equations were developed using sample trees collected mainly from pan-tropical and tropical regions that may over- or underestimate biomass. Site-specific models would improve the accuracy of the biomass estimates and enhance the country's measurement, reporting, and verification activities. The aim of the study is to develop site-specific biomass estimation models and validate and evaluate the existing generic models developed for pan-tropical forest and newly developed allometric models. Total of 140 trees was harvested from each diameter class biomass model development. Data was analyzed using SAS procedures. All relevant statistical tests (normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity) were performed. Data was transformed to logarithmic functions and multiple linear regression techniques were used to develop model to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB). The root mean square error (RMSE) was used for measuring model bias, precision, and accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R2 and adjusted [adj]-R2), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz Bayesian information Criterion was employed to select most appropriate models. Results: For the general total AGB models, adj-R2 ranged from 0.71 to 0.85, and model 9 with diameter at stump height at 10 cm (DSH10), ρ and crown width (CW) as predictor variables, performed best according to RMSE and AIC. For the merchantable stem models, adj-R2 varied from 0.73 to 0.82, and model 8) with combination of ρ, diameter at breast height and height (H), CW and DSH10 as predictor variables, was best in terms of RMSE and AIC. The results showed that a best-fit model for above-ground biomass of tree components was developed. AGBStem = exp {-1.8296 + 0.4814 natural logarithm (Ln) (ρD2H) + 0.1751 Ln (CW) + 0.4059 Ln (DSH30)} AGBBranch = exp {-131.6 + 15.0013 Ln (ρD2H) + 13.176 Ln (CW) + 21.8506 Ln (DSH30)} AGBFoliage = exp {-0.9496 + 0.5282 Ln (DSH30) + 2.3492 Ln (ρ) + 0.4286 Ln (CW)} AGBTotal = exp {-1.8245 + 1.4358 Ln (DSH30) + 1.9921 Ln (ρ) + 0.6154 Ln (CW)} Conclusions: The results demonstrated that the development of local models derived from an appropriate sample of representative species can greatly improve the estimation of total AGB.