• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive value

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Differential Diagnosis By Analysis of Pleural Effusion (흉수분석에 의한 질병의 감별진단)

  • Ko, Won-Ki;Lee, Jun-Gu;Jung, Jae-Ho;Park, Mu-Suk;Jeong, Nak-Yeong;Kim, Young-Sam;Yang, Dong-Gyoo;Yoo, Nae-Choon;Ahn, Chul-Min;Kim, Sung-Kyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.559-569
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    • 2001
  • Background : Pleural effusion is one of the most common clinical manifestations associated with a variety of pulmonary diseases such as malignancy, tuberculosis, and pneumonia. However, there are no useful laboratory tests to determine the specific cause of pleural effusion. Therefore, an attempt was made to analyze the various types of pleural effusion and search for useful laboratory tests for pleural effusion in order to differentiate between the diseases, especially between a malignant pleural effusion and a non-malignant pleural effusion. Methods : 93 patients with a pleural effusion, who visited the Severance hospital from January 1998 to August 1999, were enrolled in this study. Ultrasound-guided thoracentesis was done and a confirmational diagnosis was made by a gram stain, bacterial culture, Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a mycobacterial culture, a pleural biopsy and cytology. Results : The male to female ratio was 56 : 37 and the average age was $47.1{\pm}21.8$ years. There were 16 cases with a malignant effusion, 12 cases with a para-malignant effusion, 36 cases with tuberculosis, 22 cases with a para-pneumonic effusion, and 7 cases with transudate. The LDH2 fraction was significantly higher in the para-malignant effusion group compared to the para-pneumonic effusion group [$30.6{\pm}6.4%$ and $20.2{\pm}7.5%$, respectively (p<0.05)] and both the LDH1 and LDH2 fraction was significantly in the para-malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$16.4{\pm}7.2%$ vs. $7.6{\pm}4.7%$, and $30.6{\pm}6.4%$ vs.$17.6{\pm}6.3%$, respectively (p<0.05)]. The pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio was significantly lower in the malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$1.5{\pm}0.8$ vs. $2.1{\pm}0.6$, respectively (p<0.05)]. The LDH4 fraction and the pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio was significantly lower in the para-malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$17.0{\pm}5.8%$ vs. $23.5{\pm}4.6%$ and $1.3{\pm}0.4$ vs. $2.1{\pm}0.6$, respectively (p<0.05)]. Conclusion : These results suggest that the LDH isoenzyme was the only useful biochemical test for a differential diagnosis of the various diseases. In particular, the most useful test was the pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio to distinguish between a para-malignant effusion and a tuberculous effusion.

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Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Collaborative Filtering Algorithms using the Network Analysis of Trust Relationship among Users (사용자 간 신뢰관계 네트워크 분석을 활용한 협업 필터링 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 개선)

  • Choi, Seulbi;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.113-127
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    • 2016
  • Among the techniques for recommendation, collaborative filtering (CF) is commonly recognized to be the most effective for implementing recommender systems. Until now, CF has been popularly studied and adopted in both academic and real-world applications. The basic idea of CF is to create recommendation results by finding correlations between users of a recommendation system. CF system compares users based on how similar they are, and recommend products to users by using other like-minded people's results of evaluation for each product. Thus, it is very important to compute evaluation similarities among users in CF because the recommendation quality depends on it. Typical CF uses user's explicit numeric ratings of items (i.e. quantitative information) when computing the similarities among users in CF. In other words, user's numeric ratings have been a sole source of user preference information in traditional CF. However, user ratings are unable to fully reflect user's actual preferences from time to time. According to several studies, users may more actively accommodate recommendation of reliable others when purchasing goods. Thus, trust relationship can be regarded as the informative source for identifying user's preference with accuracy. Under this background, we propose a new hybrid recommender system that fuses CF and social network analysis (SNA). The proposed system adopts the recommendation algorithm that additionally reflect the result analyzed by SNA. In detail, our proposed system is based on conventional memory-based CF, but it is designed to use both user's numeric ratings and trust relationship information between users when calculating user similarities. For this, our system creates and uses not only user-item rating matrix, but also user-to-user trust network. As the methods for calculating user similarity between users, we proposed two alternatives - one is algorithm calculating the degree of similarity between users by utilizing in-degree and out-degree centrality, which are the indices representing the central location in the social network. We named these approaches as 'Trust CF - All' and 'Trust CF - Conditional'. The other alternative is the algorithm reflecting a neighbor's score higher when a target user trusts the neighbor directly or indirectly. The direct or indirect trust relationship can be identified by searching trust network of users. In this study, we call this approach 'Trust CF - Search'. To validate the applicability of the proposed system, we used experimental data provided by LibRec that crawled from the entire FilmTrust website. It consists of ratings of movies and trust relationship network indicating who to trust between users. The experimental system was implemented using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and UCINET 6. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system, we compared the performance of our proposed method with one of conventional CF system. The performances of recommender system were evaluated by using average MAE (mean absolute error). The analysis results confirmed that in case of applying without conditions the in-degree centrality index of trusted network of users(i.e. Trust CF - All), the accuracy (MAE = 0.565134) was lower than conventional CF (MAE = 0.564966). And, in case of applying the in-degree centrality index only to the users with the out-degree centrality above a certain threshold value(i.e. Trust CF - Conditional), the proposed system improved the accuracy a little (MAE = 0.564909) compared to traditional CF. However, the algorithm searching based on the trusted network of users (i.e. Trust CF - Search) was found to show the best performance (MAE = 0.564846). And the result from paired samples t-test presented that Trust CF - Search outperformed conventional CF with 10% statistical significance level. Our study sheds a light on the application of user's trust relationship network information for facilitating electronic commerce by recommending proper items to users.

The Usefulness of Spot Urine Protein/Creatinine Ratio in Evaluating Proteinuria in Children and the Correlation between 24-hour Urinary Protein Amount and Spot Urine Protein/Creatinine Ratio (소아 단백뇨 검사에 있어서 단회뇨 단백/크레아티닌 비의 유용성 및 일일 요단백량과의 연관성)

  • Hong, Seon Young;Kim, Ji Young;Chung, Woo Yeong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.173-177
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Recently, different results about factors affecting accurate quantitation of 24-hr urinary protein(24UP) amount using spot urine protein/creatinine ratio(PCR) have been reported. The current study was designed to evaluate correlation between 24UP amounts and PCR in children, and the effect of 24UP amounts, age, sex, and glomerular filtration rate(GFR) on this correlation. Methods : Among 94 patients who visited the department of pediatrics in Busan Paik Hospital from March 2002 to August 2002, 68 patients whose urinary creatinine excretion was ${\geq}15mg/kg/day$ were included in this study. All the patients were divided into I, II/A, B group(I : 24UP<500 mg/day, II : $24UP{\geq}500mg/day$, A : <10 years of age, B : ${\geq}10years$ of age). Pearson correlation analysis was performed between 24UP and PCR to evaluate the relationship. We defined fractional difference between 24UP and PCR, and then performed multiple regression analysis with 24UP amount, age, GFR and fractional difference. Results : There was a strong positive linear correlation between 24UP and PCR(R=0.936, P<0.0001) in all patients, and the correlation was also good in each group. Using PCR cutoff values of 0.5, the PCR provided high sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value in predicting 24UP amount ${\geq}500mg$. The factors affecting accurate quantitation of proteinuria using spot urine PCR was age, not 24UP amount, GFR or sex. Conclusion : Spot urine PCR is a useful test but has limitations in predicting 24UP amount. Therefore, it should be used only as screening method. Age-adjusted PCR cutoff values may be necessary to predict 24UP amount in children with proteinuria.

CT Findings Related to Negative Results of Sputum Smear in Patients with Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis having Multiple Cavities (여러 개의 공동이 있는 활동성폐결핵 환자에서 객담도말검사 음성과 관련된 CT 소견)

  • Lee, Hwa Yeon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.62 no.5
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    • pp.374-381
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    • 2007
  • Background: This study evaluated which CT findings could be used to predict the negative results of a sputum smear in patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis and multiple cavities. Methods: Thirty-eight patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis and multiple cavities on CT were classified into 2 groups: smear-positive (n = 30) and -negative (n = 8). The CT findings were reviewed retrospectively. The maximum internal diameter of the largest cavity, the number of the cavities and lobes with cavities, and the characteristics of the associated findings such as consolidation, ground glass opacity, micronodules and nodule were accessed. The number of cavities above 20 mm in the maximum internal diameter and a necrotizing pneumonia-like pattern were also evaluated. Result: The maximum internal diameter and number of cavities was $32.23{\pm}17.66mm$ and $15.50{\pm}11.12mm$ (p = 0.0042), and $5.53{\pm}3.17$ and $2.43{\pm}1.13$ (p = 0.0002) in the smear-positive and -negative group, respectively. Three or more cavities were observed at 76.7% and 12.5% in the smear-positive and -negative group, respectively (p < 0.005). There were $2.00{\pm}1.34$ and $0.25{\pm}0.46$ (p = 0.001), and $1.5{\pm}1.50$ and $0.38{\pm}0.52$ (p =0.0016) lobes with consolidation and ground glass opacity in the smear-positive and -negative group, respectively. A necrotizing pneumonia-like pattern was observed in 43.3% of the smear-positive group only. The other findings were similar in both two groups. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value for the presence of at least a finding of consolidation, more than 3 cavities or the largest cavity > 20 mm in the maximum internal diameter were 100%, 62.5%, 90.9%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusion: Two cavities 20 mm or less in the maximum internal diameter without consolidation on CT might be associated with a negative result of the sputum smear in patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis and multiple cavities.

Effect of bronchial artery embolization in the management of massive hemoptysis : factors influencing rebleeding (대량객혈 환자에서 기관지 동맥색전술의 효과 : 색전술후 재발의 원인과 예측인자)

  • Kim, Byeong Cheol;Kim, Jeong Mee;Kim, Yeon Soo;Kim, Seong Min;Choi, Wan Young;Lee, Kyeong Sang;Yang, Suck Cheol;Yoon, Ho Joo;Shin, Dong Ho;Park, Sung Soo;Lee, Jung Hee;Kim, Chang Soo;Seo, Heung Suk
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.590-599
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    • 1996
  • Background : Bronchial artery embolization has been established as an effective means to control hemoptysis, especially in patients with decreased pulmonary function and those with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We evaluated the effect of arterial embolization in immediate control of massive hemoptysis and investigated the clinical and angiographic characteristics and the course of patients with reccurrent hemoptysis after initial succeseful embolization. Another purpose of this study was to find predictive that cause rebleeding after bronchial artery embolization. Method : We reviewed 47 cases that underwent bronchial artery embolization for the management of massive hemoptysis, retrospectively. We analyzed angiographic findings in all cases before bronchial artery embolization and also reviewed the angiographic findings of patients that underwent additional bronchial artery embolization for the control of reccurrent hemoptysis to find the clauses of rebleeding. Results : 1) Underlying causes of hemoptysis were pulmonary tuberculosis(n=35), bronchiectasis(n=5), aspergilloma(n=2), lung cancer(n=2), pulmonary A-V malformation(n=1), and unknown cases(n=2). 2) Overal immediate success rate was 94%(n=44), an6 recurrence rate was 40%(n=19). 3) The prognostic factors such as bilaterality, systemic-pulmonary artery shunt, multiple feeding arteries and degree of neovascularity were not statistically correlated with rebleeding tendency (p value>0.05). 4) At additional bronchial artery embolization, Revealed recannalization of previous embolized arteries were 14/18cases(78%) and the presence of new deeding arteries was 8/18cases(44%). 5) The complications(31cases, 66%) such as fever, chest pain, cough, voiding difficulty, paralytic ileus, motor and sensory change of lower extremity, atelectasis and splenic infarction were occured. Conclusion : Recannalization of previous embolized arteries is the major cause of recurrence after bronchial artery embolization. Despite high recurrence rate of hemoptysis, bronchial artery embolization for management of massive hemoptysis is a effective and saute procedure in immediate bleeding control.

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Long-term Prognostic Value of Dipyridamole Stress Myocardial SPECT (디피리다몰 부하 심근관류 SPECT의 장기예후 예측능)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Cheon, Gi-Jeong;Jang, Myung-Jin;Kang, Won-Jun;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myoung-Mook;Lee, Myung-Chul;Kang, Wee-Chang;Lee, Young-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: Dipyridamole stress myocardial perfusion SPECT could predict prognosis, however, long-term follow-up showed change of hazard ratio in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. We investigated how long normal SPECT could predict the benign prognosis on the long-term follow-up. Materials and Methods: We followed up 1169 patients and divided these patients into groups in whom coronary angiography were performed and were not. Total cardiac event rate and hard event rate were predicted using clinical, angiographic and SPECT findings. Predictive values of normal and abnormal SPECT were examined using survival analysis with Mantel-Haenszel method, multivariate Cox proportional hazard model analysis and newly developed statistical method to test time-invariance of hazard rate and changing point of this rate. Results: Reversible perfusion decrease on myocardial perfusion SPECT predicted higher total cardiac event rate independently and further to angiographic findings. However, myocardial SPECT showed independent but not incremental prognostic values for hard event rate. Hazard ratio of normal perfusion SPECT was changed significantly (p<0.001) and the changing point of hazard rate was 4.4 years of follows up. However, the ratio of abnormal SPECT was not. Conclusion: Dipyridamole stress myocardial perfusion SPECT provided independent prognostic information in patients with known and suspected coronary artery disease. Normal perfusion SPECT predicted least event rate for 4.4 years.

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Expression of Tubular Intercellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM -1) as a Marker of Renal Injury in Children with IgA Nephropathy (소아 특발성 IgA 신병증에서 신 손상의 예후 인자로서 신세뇨관 ICAM-1의 발현)

  • Son Young-Ho;Kang Mi-Seon;Chung Woo-Yeong
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : In order to evaluate the value of the renal expression of ICAM-1 as a marker of renal injury, we analyzed the relationship between abnormal tubular expression of ICAM-1 and histopathological features and clinical manifestations in children with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Methods: The clinical data from 43 patients with IgAN were analyzed retrospectively and compared to the histopathologic subclassification proposed by Haas. ICAM-1 in tubular epithelium was assessed using the LSAB(Labeled streptavidine biotin) kit on the renal biopsy specimens. Results: In 43 patients with primary IgAN, 28 males and 15 females aged $12.2{\pm}2.2$ years were studied. There were no differences of renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 between patients with gross hematuria and without gross hematuria. But renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 in patients with proteinuria was significantly higher than that of in patients without proteinuria($78.2{\pm}14.19%\;vs\;55.8{\pm}32.20%,\;P<0.05$). Renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 was also associated with the severity of histopathological degree using Haas classification method. In subclass I, renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 was significantly lower than those of other subclasses. A significant correlation was found between the tubular expression of ICAM-1 and the total amount of protein in 24 hour collected urine$(r_s=0.47236,\;p<0.05)$. But there were no significant correlations between the renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 and interstitial cellular infiltration, tubular atrophy, and interstitial fibrosis respectively(F=0.89, P>0.05; F=0.31, p>0.05; F=0.21, p>0.05). Conclusion: Renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 can be a useful marker of renal injury in children with IgAN. (J Korean Soc Pediatr Nephrol 2004;8:149-158)

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Assessment of Viability in Regional Myocardium with Reversed Redistribution by Thallium Reinjection in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction (급성심근경색 환자에서 역재분포를 보인 심근의 Thallium 재주사에 의한 생존능의 평가)

  • Yoon, Seok-Nam;Park, Chan-H.;Pai, Moon-Sun
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.509-515
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether T1-201 reinjection distinguishes viable from non-viable myocardium in patients with reverse redistribution after acute myocardial infarction. Materials and Methods: We studied 42 patients with acute myocardial infarction (age, $55{\pm}12$ years). Eighteen (43%) out of 42 showed reverse redistribution on dipyridamole stress-4 hour redistribution T1-201 single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). T1-201 reinjection was performed at 24 hours. Reverse redistribution was defined as worsening of perfusion defect at 4 hour delayed scan. All patients underwent follow-up echocardiography in 4 months to assess regional wall motion improvement. T1-201 uptake on reinjection images were analyzed for the prediction of myocardial wall motion improvement. Results: Of 36 segments with reverse redistribution, 17 segments showed normal wall motion on echocardiography, while 19 segments showed wall motion abnormalities. Of 19 the segments with reverse redistribution, 11 (58%) showed enhanced uptake after 24 hour reinjection. Myocardial wall motion was improved in 10 of 11 segments (90%) with enhanced uptake on reinjection. Wall motion improvement was not seen in 5 of 8 segments (63%) without enhanced thallium uptake. When myocardial viability was assessed by the uptake on reinjection image, nine of 10 segments (90%) with normal or mildly decreased uptake showed improved wall motion. Wall motion was not improved in 5 of 9 segments (16%) with severely decreased uptake. Conclusion: In patients with acute myocardial infarction, T1-201 reinjection imaging on myocardial segments with reverse redistribution has a high positive predictive value in the assessment of myocardial viability.

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The Clinical Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction in the Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for the Detection of Mycobacteria (객담 도말 음성인 환자에서 기관지폐포 세척액 결핵균 중합 효소 연쇄반응 검사의 유용성)

  • Mo, Eun-Kyung;Kyung, Tae-Young;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck;Lee, Kyung-Wha
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.519-528
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    • 1998
  • Background: Diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis is not easy when the sputum smear for Mycobacterium tuberculosis(M. Tb) is negative. We evaluated the clinical utility of polymerase chain reaction(PCR) for detecting M. Tb in bronchoalveolar lavage(BAL) samples. Methods: We recruited 84 patients whose sputum smear for M. Tb were negative or not available due to no production of sputum. We performed bronchoalveolar lavage for acid-fast stain, culture of mycobacteria, and PCR assay of BAL fluid. We analyzed the results of microbiologic examination. Results: The sensitivity of BAL fluid smear, culture, and PCR were 20%, 38%, and 40%, respectively. The specificity of BAL fluid PCR was 95%. The positive predictive value of PCR was 89%. The smear of BAL fluid was positive in 17%. The PCR of BAL fluid was the only diagnostic test in 17%. Therefore, the BAL fluid analysis including smear and PCR was diagnostic in 34 % within 24 hours. The BAL fluid analysis including smear, PCR, and culture was diagnostic in 55% within 2 month. Conclusion: The BAL fluid PCR was valuable method in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in patients whose sputa were not available or reveal negative smear.

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