• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2008년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.288-293
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• 2008

A predictive model of wind speed in the wind farm has very important meanings. This paper presents an estimation model of wind speed based on time series analysis using the observed wind data at Hangyeong Wind Farm in Jeju island, and verification of the predictive model. In case of Hangyeong Wind Farm and Haengwon Wind Farm, The ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) predictive model was appropriate, and the wind speed estimation model was developed by means of parametric estimation using Maximum likelihood Estimation.

• Journal of Power Electronics
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.232-241
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• 2017

Advanced control algorithms must be used to make wind power generation truly cost effective and reliable. In this study, we develop a new and simple control scheme that employs model predictive control (MPC), which is used in permanent magnet synchronous generators and grid-connected inverters. The proposed control law is based on two points, namely, MPC-based torque-current control loop is used for the generator-side converter to reach the maximum power point of the wind turbine, and MPC-based direct power control loop is used for the grid-side converter to satisfy the grid code and help improve system stability. Moreover, a simple prediction scheme is developed for the direct-drive wind energy conversion system (WECS) to reduce the computation burden for real-time applications. A small-scale WECS laboratory prototype is built and evaluated to verify the validity of the developed control methods. Acceptable results are obtained from the real-time implementation of the proposed MPC methods for WECS.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.25-38
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• 2017

Climate change and environmental pollution are becoming serious due to the use of fossil energy. For this reason, renewable energy systems are increasing, especially photovoltaic systems being more popular. The photovoltaic system has characteristics that are affected by ambient weather conditions such as insolation, outside temperature, wind speed. Particularly, it has been confirmed that the performance of the photovoltaic system decreases as the module temperature increases. In order to grasp the influence of the module temperature in advance, several researchers have proposed the prediction models on the module temperature. In this paper, we predicted the module temperature using the aforementioned prediction model on the basis of the weather conditions in Incheon, South Korea during July and August. The influence of weather conditions (i.e. insolation, outside temperature, and wind speed) on the accuracy of the prediction models was also evaluated using the standard statistical metrics such as RMSE, MAD, and MAPE. The results show that the prediction accuracy is reduced by 3.9 times and 1.9 times as the insolation and outside temperature increased respectively. On the other hand, the accuracy increased by 6.3 times as the wind speed increased.

• 생물환경조절학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.181-191
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• 2014

Modern commercial greenhouse requires the use of advanced climate control system to improve crop production and to reduce energy consumption. As an alternative to classical sensor-based control method, this paper introduces a model-based control method that consists of two models: the predictive model and the evaluation model. As a first step, this paper presents straightforward models to predict the effect of natural ventilation in a greenhouse according to meteorological factors, such as outdoor air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation and mean wind speed, and structural factor, opening rate of roof ventilators. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to develop the predictive models on the basis of data obtained by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The output of the models are air temperature drops due to ventilation at 9 sub-volumes in the greenhouse and individual volumetric ventilation rate through 6 roof ventilators, and showed a good agreement with the CFD-computed results. The resulting predictive models have an advantage of ensuring quick and reasonable predictions and thereby can be used as a part of a real-time model-based control system for a naturally ventilated greenhouse to predict the implications of alternative control operation.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제60권1호
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• pp.57-70
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• 2024

In order to present a predictive drift model, Jeju National University's training ship was tested for about 11 hours and 40 minutes, and 81 samples that selected one of the entire samples at ten-minute intervals were subjected to regression analysis after verifying outliers and influence points. In the outlier and influence point analysis, although there is a part where the wind direction exceeds 1 in the DFBETAS (difference in Betas) value, the CV (cumulative variable) value is 6%, close to 1. Therefore, it was judged that there would be no problem in conducting multiple regression analyses on samples. The standard regression coefficient showed how much current and wind affect the dependent variable. It showed that current speed and direction were the most important variables for drift speed and direction, with values of 47.1% and 58.1%, respectively. The analysis showed that the statistical values indicated the fit of the model at the significance level of 0.05 for multiple regression analysis. The multiple correlation coefficients indicating the degree of influence on the dependent variable were 83.2% and 89.0%, respectively. The determination of coefficients were 69.3% and 79.3%, and the adjusted determination of coefficients were 67.6% and 78.3%, respectively. In this study, a more quantitative prediction model will be presented because it is performed after identifying outliers and influence points of sample data before multiple regression analysis. Therefore, many studies will be active in the future by combining them.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.181-189
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• 2023

The fuel consumption of marine diesel engines holds paramount importance in contemporary maritime transportation and shapes energy efficiency strategies of ocean-going vessels. Nonetheless, a noticeable gap in knowledge prevails concerning the influence of ship hull conditions and propeller roughness on fuel consumption. This study bridges this gap by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques in Matlab, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to comprehensively investigate these factors. We propose a time-series prediction model that was built on numerical simulations and aimed at forecasting ship hull and propeller conditions. The model's accuracy was validated through a meticulous comparison of predictions with actual ship-hull and propeller conditions. Furthermore, we executed a comparative analysis juxtaposing predictive outcomes with navigational environmental factors encompassing wind speed, wave height, and ship loading conditions by the fuzzy clustering method. This research's significance lies in its pivotal role as a foundation for fostering a more intricate understanding of energy consumption within the realm of maritime transport.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.741-750
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• 2017

A model coupling a meteorological predictive model and a vegetation photosynthesis and respiration model was used to simulate $CO_2$ concentrations over coastal basin areas, and modeling results were estimated with aircraft observations during a massive sampling campaign. Along with the flight tracks, the model captured the meteorological variables of potential temperature and wind speed with mean bias results of $0.8^{\circ}C$, and 0.2 m/s, respectively. These results were statistically robust, which allowed for further estimation of the model's performance for $CO_2$ simulations. Two high-resolution emission data sets were adopted to determine $CO_2$ concentrations, and the results show that the model underestimated by 1.8 ppm and 0.9 ppm at higher altitude over the study areas during daytime and nighttime, respectively, on average. Overall, it was concluded that the model's $CO_2$ performance was fairly good at higher altitude over the study areas during the study period.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제26권4_2호
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• pp.715-724
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• 2023

Solar energy forecasting is essential for (1) power system planning, management, and operation, requiring accurate predictions. It is crucial for (2) ensuring a continuous and sustainable power supply to customers and (3) optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and the electricity market. Recently, research has been focusing on developing solar energy forecasting models that can provide daily plans for power usage and production and be verified in the electricity market. In these prediction models, various data, including solar energy generation and climate data, are chosen to be utilized in the forecasting process. The most commonly used climate data (such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed) significantly influence the fluctuations in solar energy generation based on weather conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the strengths of the Prophet model and the GRU model, which exhibits excellent predictive performance. The forecasting periods for solar energy generation are tested in short-term (2 days, 7 days) and medium-term (15 days, 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than twice in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and surpasses the modified GRU model by more than 1.5 times, showcasing superior performance.

• 보존과학회지
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.387-396
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• 2018

국내 목조건축문화재는 자연환경에 그대로 노출되어 있어 생물피해와 여러 환경요인에 의해 피해가 가속화되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 보은 법주사와 순천 선암사에 기상인자 모니터링을 위한 자동기상측정장비를 설치하여 기상데이터를 수집하였다. 이들 데이터에 통계 모형을 적용하여 기상인자를 예측하고 기상인자별 예측성능을 비교하였다. 그 결과, 법주사와 선암사 두 곳 모두에서 대기온도와 이슬점온도의 상관계수가 0.95 이상으로 가장 높게 나타났으며 상대습도의 상관계수는 0.65로 낮게 나타났다. 결과적으로 일반선형모형은 대기온도와 이슬점온도를 예측하기에 적합하다는 것을 확인하였다. 기상인자들 사이의 상관성을 분석한 결과, 법주사와 선암사 모두 대기온도와 이슬점온도, 일사량과 증발량 사이에 강한 양의 상관성을 보였으며, 법주사에서는 대기온도와 증발량이 약한 양의 상관성을 나타내었고 선암사에서는 풍속이 대기온도와 상대습도에 대하여 약한 음의 상관성을 나타내었다. 선암사의 풍속은 겨울에 높고 여름에 평균 이하로 낮아지는 패턴을 보이는데, 이것은 대기온도와 상대습도가 높은 여름철에 수분의 증발을 막고 정체시키는 역할을 하는 것으로 판단되며, 결과적으로 이것이 선암사의 목조건축물 피해를 가속화시키는 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.180-188
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• 2014

현대자동차그룹은 HSM이라고 불리는 간략화된 차량 모델에 대하여 썬루프 버페팅 현상의 실험적인 조사를 시행하였다. 현대자동차그룹은 어떤 CFD솔버가 충분한 정확도를 가지고 썬루프 버페팅 현상을 예측하는지 조사하기 위해 상용CFD공급업체의 참여를 요청하였다. ANSYS Korea는 이번 조사에 참여하여 ANSYS fluent를 이용하여 HSM의 썬루프 버페팅에 대한 수치해석을 수행하였다. 먼저 유동장 검증을 위해 풍속 60 km/h에 대하여 썬루프가 닫힌 HSM모델에 대하여 해석을 수행하였다. HSM상부 면의 세 지점에서 속도 분포를 예측하였고, 이는 시험결과와 비교되었다. 그런 다음 고해상도 난류 모델인 DES를 이용한 해석이 전 풍속영역에 걸쳐 수행되었다. 버페팅 주파수와 버페팅 음압레벨이 예측되었고, 이는 시험결과와 비교되었다. 이를 통해 실제 차량 개발을 위한 CFD의 예측 가능성에 대하여 결론을 얻을 수 있었다.